NPD January 2009
- Thread starter archie4oz
- Start date
Well then, in your opinion, what other franchises are aiming specificaly at the European audience?
1) Resistance 2 sold nearly 400K for part of November, and is probably well on it's way passed 1 million world wide.
2) LBP sold extremely well over the last few months.
3) If LotR only sold 100K on 360, was the money invested in THAT even worth it? Let's not be selective and play onto the anti-PS3 bandwagon. Both versions of the game bombed, at this point it really doesn't matter which did better. Shit is shit, plain and simple.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
In Europe it has been bundled and atleast in the UK they are basically throwing it away for free, 17-18£ even before christmas. I have personally bought 45 of them and sold them here in Finland where it's still a full price game.
And this matters how? Bundled copies are still copies sold, and Meida Molecule still makes money off of bundled copies.
Unless you are somehow trying to suggest that now, the number of copies sold is all of the sudden irrelevant because of the sales price? Does the buck stop at the sales, and now DLC doesn't exist? Do you think MM made no money on it?
Please, tell me why in the world the price of the game is relevent to the number of copies sold, when the retailer still bought it from the publisher, and the publisher (sony) still made their money (and Media Molecule theirs, of course).
Viability is measured in the ability to make money though, so I don't think we'll be seeing price cuts for the sake of future consoles.
Well, again though, the PS3 has essentially surpassed both of those consoles in install base fairly early on in its life, so whatever their trends in the past, I don't think GC/XBox comparisons direstly apply to the PS3, even if the PS3's own trends aren't all that great.
The price is high, but price cuts will come. It's just they'll come as exchange rates and cost controls allow... and of course, they'll try to milk new releases for console sales or use bundles before they let prices slide in those paired environments.
The system has good exclusives, and will continue to get some, so as the price goes down, I do expect traction to increase. I don't think it'll ever catch MS in the US, but this gen being second-fiddle in the 3rd party arena is a fraction as devastating as being second-fiddle was in previous gens. The architectures, for their differences, can allow for relatively easy porting if the project starts out with that goal in mind.
Well the 360 success is honestly IMO built on Halo 2. If that game had never launched for the XBox, the platform itself would never have gained mainstream mindshare - that single title was a sea-change event for MS.
How do you know that how much money MM makes depends on the number of copies sold. Sony owns the copyright and whatever deal Sony has with MM is probably secret.
But if you have any facts, please let us know.
Not only would I not be surprised, I'd almost be surprised if it didn't. I think the things to watch with KZ2 are more how the console sales are effected in March, late Feb perhaps. I expect it to do well of course, but it doesn't have the mindshare of Halo or the install base to work with.
Frankly I also question the early reviews on the game and everything... I feel Sony has targeted the 'hype' in such a way that after swooning over KZ2 - before it's ever available for sale - peoples minds will have no choice but to grasp and consider the other games/reviews releasing in this time frame. And since so much of sales can be impulse/momentum related, personally I would have gone for the typical one-week prior embargo lift rather than this multi-month slow-mo thing. But, who knows...
As the publisher, Sony can cut their own take on the title in order to reduce the price at retail, offered in the form of a rebate to the retailer in return for a price drop; essentially lowering the cost to the retailer either through an MSRP slide or a temporary promotion.
I get the sense that's what's happened in the UK. I doubt that the retailers are the ones taking it on the chin, or that they're taking it on the chin alone at least.
On the flip side, though it's been in development a while, I get the sense that the game itself is going to be a very profitable one. The team was small - and even smaller early on - and it had a lot of ancillary assistance from Sony's other resources. Sony might feel more at liberty to be liberal with what it takes in for LBP than with most other titles, not to mention it's a demographic effort as well.
gokickrocks
Regular
i think releasing KZ2 close to SF4 (for ps3) is a big mistake, i am willing to bet SF4 will overshadow it...people have been buying the arcade sticks like hot cakes just to play SF4, but of course this is just my observation and opinion on the matter
I've been thinking about the SF4 proximity as well honestly. The thing is, February may have trumped the match-ups (SF4 and the obviously positioned Halo Wars). They'd have to go out to April in order to clear the field entirely of prominent games (resident Evil 5 in March), and I'm expecting that they're looking for KZ2 related numbers to tout in their financials for year-end and to consider when planning midterm strategy.
I could see and make arguments either way, which is why we just have to wait and see how it goes - the die is cast. But, with the reviews things, I don't know... I felt that was a mistake.
I doubt Street Fighter 4 is going to be that huge. Fighters are waning in popularity -- we'll probably see a repeat of Soul Calibur 4's performance. RE5's a more credible threat, as well, but also not directly competing. What's more likely to interfere with KZ2 is WaW.
ShadowRunner
Veteran
I think a lot of people, like me, will be buying both. It can only be a good thing for PS3 hardware sales i think. Two huge releases around the same time im sure will encourage people to purchase, it doesnt matter if one of them is multi platform.
MS was able to turn the Xbox into a viable brand by pushing the xbox1 at the cost of heavy losses. Do you think that if Sony pull the ultimate cost saver and discontinued the PS3 that the PS4 chances of success wouldn't be extremely impeded. The viability of a manufacturer to offer a product is ultimately dependent on profitability but the viability of a brand when it comes to the market is presence.
The current situation with the strengthen of the yen against the dollar is unlikely to change with the US treasury flooding the market with bonds to try to pay for this stimulus plan. Plus moving a price cut in from late fall to early spring isn't going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
Everyday the market becomes more saturated and the demand at any one price point decreases the older the generation becomes. A $400 would have generated alot more sales for the PS3 at launch than it did a year later and a $300-$350 will generate alot more sales now than it will in 6-9 months.
Halo1 and/or Halo2 were important releases but they still were released on a platform that ultimately only sold 25 million units over 4 years. The 360 has only had one Halo release and its current user base has more to do with its early release and bigger library of third party titles that used to exclusive to Sony than one franchise. Furthermore, the 360 would have undoubtbly suffered if MS was more interested in limiting the losses of the Xbox1 and allowed the PS2 to have a major price advantage as the Xbox1 would have had a far smaller userbase than 25 million regardless of the presence of Halo1 and 2.
The "Playstation" brand has been severely degraded with the lack luster sales of the PS3. But focusing on short term profitability at the expense of further degradation of the brand by allowing the PS3 sales to plummet to sub 100K will have long term implications that will affect the PS4. The PS4 will have a stronger chance of success if the market continues to believe that "Playstation" is a brand that can deliver. Remember that delaying a PS3 price cut to the fall benefits MS as well, as the price gap will allow higher sales level of the 360, which ultimately means the MS will be in better shape to follow a PS3 price cut than it is now.
I doubt it, SF is bigger franchise that is alot closer to people's heart than Soul Caliber. I haven't heard of many Super Thunderous Ultra Climax Turbo times infinity Remix Warp factor 9 editions of Soul Caliber. I think the combined presence of SF4 and RE5 will have negative effect on the sales of KZ2.
It'll do better than Soul Calibur, but only old folks even remember what Street Fighter is about, and Soul Calibur is far more accessible than SF, move-wise. Just hold in one direction and tap a button and you'll do something cool (not to mention you have Jedis sweetening the pot). SF4 is relying entirely on nostalgia, and nostalgia's that's 15+ years old at that.
But then again they're not published by Capcom. SF2HDR helped awaken some interest for the brand, I imagine, but what was the last relevant release? Anniversary Collection was in 2004, I can't imagine that did so hot. SF2 is bigger than Soul Calibur, in terms of mindshare, no doubt, I just don't think it's that big to begin with.
Some, sure, and RE5 more than SF4, but the overlap between SF4 and KZ2 market is pretty small.
If they pulled the PS3 before launch, that might have made some sense actually from a corporate perspective. But obviously things went other than planned. However, the losses are front-loaded, so it wouldn't make any sense to pull the plug now after the lions share of pain has already been endured. At the same time, nor is it prudent to walk into further losses when you don't have to.
The strength of the yen against the dollar doesn't have much to do with any dollar weakness, that's for sure. When the crises began, the dollar got strong, and the yen got stronger. It's the high-yielding currencies that have suffered the most; the dollar was low-yielding, and the yen lower-yielding still. As for how much the price cut would cost Sony, well... it'll cost as much as whatever the difference in price is multiplied by the consoles sold from that point on. If they would have cut $50 in Fall, hav
No doubt, but new games are a new demand creator. It's from another thread, but this'll be my language here just for expediency:
I'm not saying anything is an absolute - they may cut the price prior to KZ2, who knows. But I would expect a cut after KZ2 myself, just because it makes more sense.
If what we're talking about is piggybacking to sell more consoles, this is the calculus:
Of the individuals that will buy KZ2 at launch, how many of them will be buying new consoles spurred by that title alone (and the existant library)? We'll call that group A.
Now, how many people would buy a new PS3 if the price were dropped $50 or $100? We'll call that group B.
What Sony wants to make sure of, is that anyone that would be part of both Group A and B, is ushered into PS3 ownership at said higher price point. After they've exhausted that 'tier' of the demand curve with specific title incentive, that would be the time to lower the price to attract a new band that simply would not move at $400. In this business it is imperative that anyone you can induce to buy at a higher price, you take advantage of that.
I wasn't saying Halo as a franchise generally, I was saying Halo 2 as a title specifically. That game made the news. That game made it cool for people to talk about installing XBox's in their car rather than Playstations. That single game, I think, reversed the fortunes of the entire brand... and I'd venture that total XBox sales for the gen would have been much lower than 25 million without it.
The same "defining title" situation is the case with the Wii w/Wii Sports. Without Wii Sports, half of the drawe and appeal of that system would be unmaterialized, as it is so intrinsic to the understanding the 'broader' market has of the system.
My point was more, we may not see any new Halo 2 phenomenons this gen, but if such a thing were to occur, it can change momentum on a dime.
The Playstation brand has definitely been degraded, but if the 360 can be considered a success off of XBox's shoulders, well then Sony will be working with no worse when it launches PS4. Again, it'll be the momentum at the end of the gen that determines initial next-gen velocity rather than this mid-gen stuff. It may not be selling mad consoles, but the system does still have some decent franchises to position itself through.
I'm not here saying everything is dandy for Sony, but these are days for survival rather than ambition. The division's profitable; I'm sure they're happy to leave it like that for the time being while the electronics division re-orgs. Once things have settled down, the ambition can come back in.
I wonder if there's some truth to this regarding JP sales (OT I realize). There Wii Sports isn't bundled in, and Japan isn't nearly as smitten with the Wii as other markets are, these days.
The dollar strengthen due to the fact that a bunch of money went into bonds because of the failing markets and the yen strengthen due to belief that Japan would weather the storm better than others and recover first. However, the flooding of US treasury bonds will further weaken the dollar by providing more supply than demand and now that the market looks like its bottoming the market is becoming more attractive to investors.
This is from my initial post....
"Sony definitely needs a price cut this spring preferably within a couple of weeks of KZ2 shipping."
The Halo2 phenemenom is directly attributable to Halo1. Its not like Halo2 appeared out of no where to sell millions of copies within a day. Furthermore, the Xbox went on to have its two worst years of sales after the release of Halo2 even though Halo2 give MS its best holiday season. The 360 best holiday season was Halo less, so while Halo helped the Xbox its not a definitive reason for the 360's success. Halo1 didn't stop the monthly US volumes to hit 80K by the Xbox first April. The pricecut of that spring did however return the Xbox to 200K level and those yearly price cut made sure the xbox didn't see those levels again until the year before the 360 dropped.
Wii Sports isn't a product of its own merit. Its appeal its ability to show off the strength of the Wii, which is ultimately what sold Wii Sport and the Wii. Furthermore, MS sold more xboxs during the Jan-Oct period prior to the release of Halo2 than it did the preceding Jan-Oct period.
That the point. Its a really bad ideal to allow the "playstation" brand to degrade to the point that has no more influence on the market then the "Xbox" brand did at the launch of the 360. Thats like Toyota allowing its brand to degrade to point that is about as well respected as Hyundai. Hyundai is no where near as bad as it was 15 years ago but you would need to be shot if you as Toyota's management allowed Toyota current brand image to fall any where near where Hyundai is right now.
Sony can survive a lot worse than the current situation. Its not like S&P or Moody has degraded Sony to junk bond status which would happen if Sony was in really bad shape.
With all the discussion about Sony focusing on profitability I haven't really seen anyone point out that this is only taking into account short-term profitability. To what degree is the decision to not be more aggressive on pricing affecting their long term profit potential?
If Sony really believes in the potential of their platform to attract consumers and generate revenue for themselves and their partners, isn't it worth enduring more pain now in order to achieve a better payoff in the end? The whole console lifecycle since the PS1 was introduced has been based on losing money early to make money late. The Wii clearly broke out of this paradigm but both the PS3 and 360 are products of the old order. What are the circumstances causing Sony to believe that additional losses are not acceptable?
If Sony really believes in the potential of their platform to attract consumers and generate revenue for themselves and their partners, isn't it worth enduring more pain now in order to achieve a better payoff in the end? The whole console lifecycle since the PS1 was introduced has been based on losing money early to make money late. The Wii clearly broke out of this paradigm but both the PS3 and 360 are products of the old order. What are the circumstances causing Sony to believe that additional losses are not acceptable?