NPD January 2012

[Acert93]

Someone on Ars summarized the data from NeoGaf.

TOP 10 GAMES FOR JANUARY 2011

Title (Platforms) - Publisher
1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (X360, PS3, PC) - Activision
2. Just Dance 3 (Wii, 360, PS3) - Ubisoft
3. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (360, PS3, PC) - Bethesda Softworks
4. NBA 2K12 (360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC) - Take-Two
5. Battlefield 3 (X360, PS3, PC) - EA
6. Madden NFL 12 (X360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP) - EA
7. Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - Nintendo
8. Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure (360, PS3, Wii, 3DS, PC) - Activision Blizzard
9. Zumba Fitness 2 (Wii) - Majesco
10. Saints Row: The Third (360, PS3, PC) - THQ

Xbox360 at 270k with 49% of the market.

Which means that Wii+PS3 is 281k combined.

EDIT: The NeoGaf link has the PR comments and a link to the USA Today article that notes, "Total sales of games, game systems and accessories dropped 34% for the month, accounting for $750.6 million, compared with $1.14 billion in January 2011, according to data from market research firm The NPD Group.".

Michael Pachter comments, "Still, the January results are so poor that their validity should be questioned, says Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter. From 2004 to 2011, January software sales have averaged $518 million, making this month's $355.9 million figure "just hard to digest," he says. "It also makes no sense that sales are below the level from 2004, when games were cheaper and the installed base of consoles was much lower. ... I don't know if the NPD is getting faulty data, but these numbers make no sense."

 

[Acert93]

If Pachter called me I would make this one observation: The Xbox 360 is in it's 7th January of sales and the Wii and PS3 in their 6th. The Wii has had a general decline in sales going on 12+ months and the PS3's sales (iirc) has generally remained fairly consistent, but partly fueled by fairly regular retail price reductions. The 360 has defied the general curve with a late life bump but there is no real precedence to understand how the "Kinect Hop" will fare--it may be finally fizzling at the 360's current price point (as a fairly active Kinect using family we are very dismayed with the general flow of software; we have ~ 10 Kinect Retail Games/Arcade games). It is unprecedented that I saw the 360 w/ 250GB HDD and Kinect at Costco advertised at $299 yesterday (yay for finally getting out of the house!) The 360 in 2012 is a much better value proposition than the 360 in 2006 but the general consumer electronics market is quickly evolving and expanding. It probably doesn't help that the WiiU is coming this year as well.

It is odd, though, that sales took a rather non-historic flatline in December (but an amazing November may have fueled such??) followed by a nose dive in January.

Will 2012 finally be the year of real price drops? My 2012 prediction: MS positions a 360 w/ HDD w/ Kinect at at least $50 less than the WiiU launch price.

 

[RobertR1]

from gaf (confirmed)

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=35048093&postcount=781

If the 28% drop is true, that puts the PS3 around 192k (267k on Jan/2011).
Which added to the aprox. 340k units combined (between PS3 and Wii), then that puts the Wii at around 148k (did 319k on Jan/2011).

So, the overall aprox. numbers are something like:

360: 270k (confirmed)
PS3: 192k (28% drop from same month last year)
3DS: 150k (Nintendo info saying that it's at "more than 4.25 million", last month was at "more than 4.1 million")
Wii: 148k (over 340k [PS3+Wii] - over 192k [PS3] = over 148k])

With 3DS and Wii probably alternating positions and give or take few extra thousands.

 

[Acert93]

Thanks Robert. As bad as the 360 slide is they are definitely the "good" compared to the PS3 (bad) and the Wii (ugly). As they say the one eyed man rules in the valley of the blind.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Some comments...Always interesting.

The 49% MS share is for total console spending (console + software + accessories). Impressive as always. And shouldn't be surprising as they have 5 of the top 10 single SKU spots. I'm guessing Wii has somewhere between 3 - 5 of the rest.

The down numbers for January. Most likely a combination of a worsening economy + holiday shopping fatigue + no compelling title releases for January. Also Kinect last Jan. was still new and thus probably had a larger follow up impact in Jan. 2011 than it does this Jan.

Feb. should do relatively better with some compelling releases, Kingdoms of Amalur for example.

The only single SKU titles to chart in the combined SKU chart are both on Nintendo systems. So while things aren't looking good for the Wii overall, there are still some bright spots for the platform. As well, 3DS seems to be OK although perhaps not as well as the DS did in the past. Then again the DS early in its life didn't have to deal with a huge global recession.

COD as expected dominating software sales, but it's good to see BF3 in there as well.

It's interesting that for single SKU sales, Skyrim on X360 is selling better than COD on X360 (Skyrim -> COD -> BF3 in that order). Which likely means that FPS titles are dominating PS3 single SKU charts while a RPG title is at the top of the X360 chart. Hopefully this can finally put to rest the console forum "meme" that X360 players like FPS titles more than PS3 players. It's the same on both platforms, it's about time people got over it.

Feb. will be a better guage of whether console sales for this generation are really in serious decline or not. And I wouldn't be surprised if it rebounded somewhat matching and possibly exceeding last Feb. Although Wii's decline may be impossible to overcome for the other two platforms.

Regards,
SB

 

[AlphaWolf]

Not much good to say about January's numbers, it's an interesting highlight of last years software.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Not terribly surprising, I can't think of a single title that released in Jan. That's how utterly unremarkable the month was.

Regards,
SB

 

[bkilian]

from gaf (confirmed)

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=35048093&postcount=781

If the 28% drop is true, that puts the PS3 around 192k (267k on Jan/2011).
Which added to the aprox. 340k units combined (between PS3 and Wii), then that puts the Wii at around 148k (did 319k on Jan/2011).

So, the overall aprox. numbers are something like:

360: 270k (confirmed)
PS3: 192k (28% drop from same month last year)
3DS: 150k (Nintendo info saying that it's at "more than 4.25 million", last month was at "more than 4.1 million")
Wii: 148k (over 340k [PS3+Wii] - over 192k [PS3] = over 148k])

With 3DS and Wii probably alternating positions and give or take few extra thousands.

Where'd they get the 340K for PS3+Wii? That just doesn't jibe with the 49% 360 share

Aah, the 28% drop is "total hardware and sftware" for the PS3, so those numbers are bogus.

And noticed the 49% is total sales, not hardware. Nevermind. We will just have to be sadly unenlightened this month.

 

[TheChefO]

From my post in the predict thread:

Past jan sales for xb360 in sequential order:
250k 2006
294k
230k
309k
333k
381k
270k 2012

270k certainly isn't great, and is in fact the worst January since 2008, but this shouldn't be a surprise given the relatively high price for the hardware.

Speaking of 2008, that's the last time there was a pricedrop for Xbox. Seriously. Going on 4 years at the same pricepoints is a bit much and though they've done things to help keep this base price up, it is LONG overdue for a cut.

And this unit drop in January supports that notion.

As I said before, I'll be surprised if there isn't a cut by this summer. They've milked this cow for about all it's worth at these price points.

 

[upnorthsox]

From my post in the predict thread:



270k certainly isn't great, and is in fact the worst since 2008, but this shouldn't be a surprise given the relatively high price for the hardware.

Speaking of 2008, that's the last time there was a pricedrop for Xbox. Seriously. Going on 4 years at the same pricepoints is a bit much and though they've done things to help keep this base price up, it is LONG overdue for a cut.

And this unit drop in January supports that notion.

As I said before, I'll be surprised if there isn't a cut by this summer. They've milked this cow for about all it's worth at these price points.

People have been predicting a price cut for 3 1/2 years now, at this point I'd be surprised if there is a cut.

 

[TheChefO]

People have been predicting a price cut for 3 1/2 years now, at this point I'd be surprised if there is a cut.

Yes, but as you can see from the listing of Jan npd, this is a drastic reduction in sales yoy.

People only months ago were exclaiming that there is no need for new hardware, "look at the sales they're only getting better" ... well we saw the first sign of weakness in December and further weakness in January.

In the face of ever broader competition for entertainment dollars, MS needs a price cut within the next 6 months and a new console 6-9 months after that to keep momentum.

 

[AlphaWolf]

In the face of ever broader competition for entertainment dollars, MS needs a price cut within the next 6 months and a new console 6-9 months after that to keep momentum.

So we should expect Sony to release a console this year to fit your timeline? I mean they had their price cut months ago already.

I'd be shocked if MS drops prices before this summer and they certainly aren't going to plan a console launch around a 2 month dip in sales.

 

[TheChefO]

So we should expect Sony to release a console this year to fit your timeline? I mean they had their price cut months ago already.

I'd be shocked if MS drops prices before this summer and they certainly aren't going to plan a console launch around a 2 month dip in sales.

Only a fool would announce based on a 2 month dip in sales, otherwise we'd have seen a PS4 way back in 2007!

Having said that, this isn't a dip IMO and the reasoning for the new console has little to do with a two month dip and more to do with a 7 year gap in technology between what is currently offered and what is currently possible. At some point, sales slide (not dip) due to lack of interest. Once interest is lost completely, no price cut will make a difference (see Wii sales this Christmas).

IMO the drop in sales is the precursor of things to come. This gen is old and in need of new hardware to maintain interest. Especially with other mediums vying for consumers entertainment dollar which are decidedly fresher than the 2005 hardware on the shelf today...

Sony's decision will be a bit more complex as they have budgetary issues and we've heard nothing ... NOTHING on their nextgen plans.

Contrast this with MS which have had dev kits in major developers hands for quite a while now.

If these sales continue to slump, which I think they will, MS can either drop price to keep momentum in their favor, or they can let it slip away in the hopes that consumers don't stray too far into IOS/Android ... or perhaps even WiiU.

Pricedrops will only hold for so long as the intent is to pull in consumers which wouldn't bite at a higher price, but MS did already offer Xbox Kinect Bundles for $150 this past Black Friday. There's only so much further they can dip to sell into untapped markets which are interested in the current hardware.

If they want better sales, a price drop will be necessary in the short term and then succession needs to be around the corner.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Yes, but as you can see from the listing of Jan npd, this is a drastic reduction in sales yoy.

Which is quite easily explained by a lack of a launch for any compelling titles for January, obvious buyer fatigue from holiday sales and a worsening economy.

Compared to last Jan. it looks especially bad. But last Jan. also had the continuing large influence of Kinect which had just launched and which was supply contrained in December of 2010. Hence leading to a much larger influence on X360 sales in Jan. 2011.

Additionally Jan. 2011 had the launch of Dead Space 2 and Little Big Planet 2 among others to boost buyer interest after the holiday season.

Jan. 2010 had Mass Effect 2, Darksiders, Army of Two: The 40th day, etc...

Jan. 2012? I can't think of a single new title that launched.

Februrary will let us know if there is going to be a real need for a price drop in the future as it features at least one high profile title launch (Kingdoms of Amalur) as well as other lesser but potentially attractive titles (Darkness II, for example).

I'm thinking it has a chance of being approximately similar to Feb. 2011. Although Feb. 2011 saw a lot of high profile titles. Marvel vs. Capcom 3, Bullestorm, Killzone 3, etc... So I still wouldn't be surprised if it did worse.

Personally I agree that it's likely we'll see a price cut for X360 this year. Kinect isn't as new so marketing opportunities for it will be slightly less unless there's a key compelling title coming out that uses Kinect (ME3 has potential to boost interest in it). But I'm not expecting a potential X360 price cut until Sept. at the very earliest with Nov. being far more likely.

Regards,
SB

 

[TheChefO]

Which is quite easily explained by a lack of a launch for any compelling titles for January, obvious buyer fatigue from holiday sales and a worsening economy.

It's not just comparing with last January. It's the worst January since 2008. Buyer fatigue goes without saying every January, yet this is the worst since 2008.

No new games? Sure, but do new games really bring in the masses anymore on their own, nearly 7 years after launch?

As for a worsening economy, perhaps if you listen to rhetoric from presidential hopefuls, but in the real world, the economy is actually getting better, not worse. See the latest jobs reports.


As you said, we'll see come Feb, but as of right now, I'm putting my money on this being the start of the downturn of sales for this gen. Price cuts can help extend it a bit longer, but it's at the tail end here.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

As for a worsening economy, perhaps if you listen to rhetoric from presidential hopefuls, but in the real world, the economy is actually getting better, not worse. See the latest jobs reports.

Sure if you go by the constantly adjusted methods for determining the unemployment rate the past few years. All in an attempt to hide the true unemployment rate.

And it isn't just the US. Japan's economy continues to deteriorate. The situation in the EU isn't improving all that much. The Euro is finally starting to rebound a tiny bit from it's low near the middle of January but is still far short of where it was 6 months ago.

All of that has an effect on buyer confidence. (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ahead-bell-consumer-spending-103051390.html ) You can feel free to google other examples of how consumer spending and hence consumer confidence was lower in 2011 than 2010.

Some items still enjoy brisk or steady sales. But those are in the minority. For tech items while mobile phones and tablets had an increase in spending YoY, almost all other electronics categories had YoY losses for 2012. Consoles being one of those. For one example of such, (http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57377104-93/consumer-electronics-spending-hits-$144b-in-2011/).

If the economy and hence jobs created versus jobs lost was actually on the incline you would see the opposite of those effects. Increased jobs versus jobs lost leads to consumer spending confidence (people aren't in fear of losing their jobs), increased spending confidence leads to increased retail sales. None of which has happened yet and signs are that 2012 is going to be worse than 2011.

Why mention that here? It has a direct impact on console spending. After the first year or two of the recession, spending was on a rebound for entertainment products as people foolishly thought the recession would be short term and entertainment is a good way to distract yourself from the reality of the situation.

But more and more people are coming to realize that we're in this for the long haul. So people are getting stingier with how they spend their money.

We saw it quite well as Holiday 2011 progressed with the console industry. Hardware sales didn't fall much (overall) but new software sales took a dive. Cutting spending on new games allows them to still buy new consoles, but now they have to rely on used games rather than new games. Or perhaps PSN or Xbox Live games.

No compelling titles in January just discourages those willing to buy a console from buying one just yet.

It's quite possible and likely that hardware sales in Feb. won't rebound much. But I'm more looking at overall console spending (hardware, software, accessesories).

Regards,
SB

 

[TheChefO]

Why mention that here? It has a direct impact on console spending.

And yet, in November, PS3 and xb360 had increased sales yoy.

The overall console spend is lower due to Wii being officially done, not a sudden worsening of the US economy (this is the NPD thread).

My words of caution WRT Xbox sales is a direct response to how quickly the Wii platform is sinking (the big reason for lower console industry spend).

Another note on consumer spend ... have you perchance had a moment to take a look at IOS sales lately? No sign of recession there .... FYI

 

[babybumb]

Nintendo will start with zero momentum from previous console to convince publishers in the core gamer market.. It needs to build a good ecosystem for publishers before new consoles arrive or it could be just ignored totally for anything else but the highest selling games (COD, Madden, etc..)

Nintendo needs to execute perfectly to make Wii U even a moderate success IMO. Wii U is next-gen for Nintendo but not really for 3rd parties. 3rd party next-gen projects are started on other upcoming consoles and Nintendo hopes to get those on Wii U

 

[eastmen]

And yet, in November, PS3 and xb360 had increased sales yoy.

The overall console spend is lower due to Wii being officially done, not a sudden worsening of the US economy (this is the NPD thread).

My words of caution WRT Xbox sales is a direct response to how quickly the Wii platform is sinking (the big reason for lower console industry spend).

Another note on consumer spend ... have you perchance had a moment to take a look at IOS sales lately? No sign of recession there .... FYI

I'm pretty sure a price cut to $150/$250 would most likely boost the 360 again this year . I think the console gen is winding down but in the states at least the 360 has another killer year and even if the ps4/xbox next release in 2014 the xbox 360 will outsel them

 

[TheChefO]

...even if the ps4/xbox next release in 2014 the xbox 360 will outsel them

I wouldn't be so sure of that ...

Let's take a look at the past 3 December sales for Wii:

2009 3.8 million units! Wow, a staggering sum and just think of all the plastic goodies they sold along with it! This gravy train just keeps getting better! Just a year ago in 2008 it only sold 2.1 million! Imagine how much they will sell in 2010!

2010 2.36 million. Ok not bad, just a down year from the economy etc. It'll rebound and get better next year after an even bigger price cut .... right?

2011 1.06 million ... and this after pricecuts and bundles into the $99 level.

What a difference two years makes.

If we look at ps3 over the same time period, they too have seen a steady slide from 1.36m, to 1.21m, to .94m. But their story is nowhere near as dramatic. Nintendo sold less than a third what they did 2 years ago. And this, at half the price.

The only one to buck that trend has been Xbox and that's mostly to do with Kinect and even there, the magic is waning yoy:

1.31m
1.86m
1.70m


By 2014, I'll be surprised if the box on the shelf today is still on the shelf, much less selling well.

But yes, a pricecut will help to keep sales up for a while until the new box is announced but this gen is running out of steam and if they're not careful, they'll find themselves in Wii territory.

Lost momentum.