NPD January 2009

[Laa-Yosh]

Im not sure if its that important for Sony to beat the X360 in NA.

Most game dev studios are NA based and they are looking at that market to decide about future developments. Japan doesn't matter to them at all - and only a few franchises are important for Europe, like Gran Turismo and Fifa.
Last place in NA is pretty close to becoming the least important player.

Selling 100-150k less consoles per month in NA than the main competition is far from as big of a deal as many portray it to be.

As long as you don't look at the ~8 million console lead that the X360 has and realize that Sony would have to keep selling at least 250K more than MS just to catch up to them, well, it really isn't such a big deal then...

 

[eastmen]

it should be more worrying to sony that games are not selling on the ps3 even its exclusive holiday titles did poorly.

If i was a dev looking at the situation would a ps3 port really make sense still if so few games are charting ?

 

[Rangers]

Im not sure if its that important for Sony to beat the X360 in NA.


Aspecially not if the way to get there is by cutting the price of the console and endure even more losses. This ofcourse depends a lot on how much the price cut will be, but i doubt it really make sense from a business perspective right now.

You have to consider the competition, and the main competitior is priced very competitive and the main competitor is also in such a financial position, that they could instantly answer by further cutting the price.

Of course, seeing how much the PS3 is selling at $400, the potential demand for a $300 PS3 might be so large that the loss Sony would have to endure is outweighted by the gains.

I can also see Sony waiting to cut price until the cost of manufacturing gets lowered enough to warrant a price cut.

Selling 100-150k less consoles per month in NA than the main competition is far from as big of a deal as many portray it to be. Thats only 900k or so consoles in the next half year.

Also, they can cut price in the fall when console sales start picking up, minimizing the loss they would have to endure (maybe they even have new cheaper fabrication by then)

I think it's becoming clear that it least in North America theres no way Sony is going to make this deficit up. I used to run the numbers "Sony needs to win by 200K for (insert number months here) to even tie". Well those predictions just got blown up when 360 was adding hundreds of k more to its lead the last few months. And a mere 100k this month.

The other thing is by fall, I think 360 is just going to cut again by fall..so is Sony going to be any better off? The next stop for PS3 is 299..299 is still not mainstream. 199 is Arcade showed that. We might well see a 149 Arcade in winter 09. We'll probably see at least something like 169. The fact the PS3 has a built in HDD is probably going to never allow them to plumb those price points really. Or at least far too late to matter.

Then we come to games..after KZ2 is come and gone here shortly, Sony doesnt have anything on that level again in 09, while MS will at least have ODST to shift some boxes. Plus whatever else they have up their sleeves. The red RE5 bundle too. And I wouldnt be surprised if Halo Wars outsells KZ2 (the demo had 2m downloads day one, the most dled first day on XBL, and I saw some GAF pre-order numbers that have Halo Wars with more pre-orders than KZ2 at a Gamespot district).

 

[DuckThor Evil]

It may have just got demoted behind the UK, but it's still the 3rd biggest videogame market in the world.

The number 3 in itself doesn't mean much, when 3/all is very small. U.S. alone is 5 times bigger and Europe combined also is way bigger. Things have changed a lot from last gen. Japanese devs target their games much more towards worldwide markets these days and nobody targets Japanese market outside of Japan. So even if Japan still is number 3, that number three has shrunk to a tiny baby number 3.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

The other thing is by fall, I think 360 is just going to cut again by fall..so is Sony going to be any better off? The next stop for PS3 is 299..299 is still not mainstream...

Well, seeing how much demand there is for a $400 PS3, and considering that demand usually dont scale linearly with price, the demand for a $300 PS3 could actually be quite impressive.

 

[catisfit]

Most game dev studios are NA based and they are looking at that market to decide about future developments. Japan doesn't matter to them at all - and only a few franchises are important for Europe, like Gran Turismo and Fifa.
Last place in NA is pretty close to becoming the least important player.

That's a pretty one-eyed view, to say the least. Expecially the bolded part.

If i was a dev looking at the situation would a ps3 port really make sense still if so few games are charting ?

Did I wake up in 2007?!

The other thing is by fall, I think 360 is just going to cut again by fall..so is Sony going to be any better off?

Yes, because the number of people who want a PS3 but aren't prepared to pay $399 is significantly larger than the number of people who want a 360 but aren't prepared to pay $199.

The number 3 in itself doesn't mean much, when 3/all is very small. U.S. alone is 5 times bigger and Europe combined also is way bigger.

Hmmm, if Japan were counted in Europe, it would currently rank as the second largest videogame market in Europe. And that only just behind the UK as the largest. Where this "baby 3" stuff has come from, I have no idea.

 

[eastmen]

Originally Posted by eastmen
If i was a dev looking at the situation would a ps3 port really make sense still if so few games are charting ?

Did I wake up in 2007?!

look at january 2009 numbers , there is not one ps3 title on the list. Look at holiday 2008 numbers and look at how poorly even first party titles did.


For example the new lord of the rings game. It did a 113k on the 360 and the ps3 title didn't chart. Was the money invested in a ps3 port worth the 10s of thousands it sold ?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Hmmm, if Japan were counted in Europe, it would currently rank as the second largest videogame market in Europe. And that only just behind the UK as the largest.

So what? It's still a small percentage out of the whole world.

Where this "baby 3" stuff has come from, I have no idea.

I meant that in terms of home console market size and importance Japan has shrunk from last gen significantly and now it plays a very minor role in total figures.

 

[fearsomepirate]

Well, it's another consecutive drop in PS3 sales vs the same month last year. It certainly doesn't bode well for the future of the platform. IMO, it's getting to the point where the majority of customers are going to see PS3 as less valuable than 360. When that happens, then even matching the 360 ins price won't save it.

 

[obonicus]

look at january 2009 numbers , there is not one ps3 title on the list. Look at holiday 2008 numbers and look at how poorly even first party titles did.


For example the new lord of the rings game. It did a 113k on the 360 and the ps3 title didn't chart. Was the money invested in a ps3 port worth the 10s of thousands it sold ?

Eastmen, I know you've been in every single one of these NPD threads. This has come up repeatedly: PS3 sales are about 1/3 of the total console sales in the US. Yeah, there are games where the publisher might decide that 1/3 of sales may not make up for the extra cost of a PS3 version, but that'd typically only be the case where the publisher doesn't expect much from the title.

From N'Gai Croal's twitter:

11-16: COD WAW PS3, Gears 2, Fallout 3, Jillian Michaels Fitness Wii, Link's Crossbow Training, My Fitness Coach Wii.

17-20: Rock Band 2 360, GH World Tour 360, COD WAW Wii, Lego Star Wars Saga Wii.

That puts WAW PS3 pretty much at around 1/2 of the 360 version's sales, as mentioned above. Curious as to how the lowest-selling game sold. Also... wow, Wii.

 

[obonicus]

Was January 2008 another of the months boosted by the price-cut?

 

[thatdude90210]

It's also a drop from Jan 2007, when the console was $499/599 (PS3 - 244,000 jan 2007).

According to the chatter at gaf, Nintendo's press release said that 20 out of the top 30 were on Nintendo's platforms. That's not good news for anyone else, but at least the 360 had some in the top 10.

 

[RobertR1]

1 PS3 game in the top 20? How the mighty have fallen......

 

[BadTB25]

Eastmen, I know you've been in every single one of these NPD threads. This has come up repeatedly: PS3 sales are about 1/3 of the total console sales in the US. Yeah, there are games where the publisher might decide that 1/3 of sales may not make up for the extra cost of a PS3 version, but that'd typically only be the case where the publisher doesn't expect much from the title.

From N'Gai Croal's twitter:





That puts WAW PS3 pretty much at around 1/2 of the 360 version's sales, as mentioned above. Curious as to how the lowest-selling game sold. Also... wow, Wii.

I wanted to clarify, are you saying that PS3 has about 1/3 of TOTAL consale sales in the US?

I don't see how this is possible related games or consoles. With no titles in the Top 10 this month and at most 2-3 in previous months, they would have to be dominating the lower ranked tiers in the Top 11 onwards.

I may be misunderstanding your post. I can see where you are coming from if you're talking multiplatform games that are released between the 360 and PS3.

 

[obonicus]

I may be misunderstanding your post. I can see where you are coming from if you're talking multiplatform games that are released between the 360 and PS3.

Right, I was referring to multiplatform games, as I was replying to eastmen's claim. For multiplatform games, PS3 sales are about 1/3 of the total console sales in the US.

 

[thatdude90210]

Software sales, overall top 20 and top ten for each console:
http://blog.wired.com/games/2009/02/january-2009s-t.html

Note that the top 20 has 8 xbox360 titles. So at most, there is 2 PS3 titles top 30. Might even be 1 because that left over 1 could be PS2 or PSP.

Edit: that left over 1 could even be for the 360.

 

[eastmen]

Eastmen, I know you've been in every single one of these NPD threads. This has come up repeatedly: PS3 sales are about 1/3 of the total console sales in the US. Yeah, there are games where the publisher might decide that 1/3 of sales may not make up for the extra cost of a PS3 version, but that'd typically only be the case where the publisher doesn't expect much from the title.

From N'Gai Croal's twitter:





That puts WAW PS3 pretty much at around 1/2 of the 360 version's sales, as mentioned above. Curious as to how the lowest-selling game sold. Also... wow, Wii.

those are big games with big marketing budgets.

Smaller games with smaller budgets spread across less platforms may nto be able to afford ps3 development .

From what your saying LORT conquest sold 60k units on the ps3. Are you saying it was a smart port ? That porting it was worth while and that the devs will port their next game to the ps3 aftre those sales ?

Big titles will continue to apear on both platforms as the cost to port is a smaller portion of total costs, but smaller games will start to dry up.


edit looking at wired lord of the rings conquest was 6th on the ps3 top 10 list. There was only 1 ps3 title in the top 10 list and that was CODWW at spot 11. Meaning there are at least 10 spots between the ps3 #1 title and #2 . Conquest may have sold less than 30 thousand units at that point.

 

[RobertR1]

Software sales, overall top 20 and top ten for each console:
http://blog.wired.com/games/2009/02/january-2009s-t.html

Note that the top 20 has 8 xbox360 titles. So at most, there is 2 PS3 titles top 30. Might even be 1 because that left over 1 could be PS2 or PSP.

Edit: that left over 1 could even be for the 360.

Thanks for the link. Now that's the sort of NPD numbers I'd like to see every month. This used to be normal until NPD cut back on the info made public. Hopefully this is the new trend going forward again.

 

[obonicus]

From what your saying LORT conquest sold 60k units on the ps3. Are you saying it was a smart port ? That porting it was worth while and that the devs will port their next game to the ps3 aftre those sales ?

Are you saying it's not? Do you know how much it cost? Maybe they made a profit, in which case yes, they're better off than when they started. Did EA intend LOTR:Conquest to be a bad game with a bad demo? We don't know, we're the peanut gallery. If it happens that PS3 ports are canceled for lower-profile games, it's not altogether surprising. But let's not start pretending like we have insider information, because that's BS.

 

[obonicus]

Thanks for the link. Now that's the sort of NPD numbers I'd like to see every month. This used to be normal until NPD cut back on the info made public. Hopefully this is the new trend going forward again.

It'd still be nice to get actual numbers for 10-20 and per-platform games.