NPD December 2009

Natal is about "completely changing" the way you play games, but also completely "changing the games" you play. Think about how you play games now - sitting on the coach, controller in hand, staring at the TV, pushing buttons. That's how you play FPS, RPG, driving, RTS, fighting and whatever games.
Will you be able to play those games with Natal? No. There have to be different games for Natal. Would you like those games? If you're in the FPS, RPG, RTS etc gaming, most likely you will not like them. That's why you dont play the Wii very much.
As for ARC - if it could play these "older" games, it could add to the experience.
MS is fishing in a different pond than Sony.

As for selling - Natal is more "novelty" than ARC, it might have greater impact on sales. Will it get used by those that had purchased it? Doubtfull.

In the end, the "new Natal games" will not be able to replace the "button games". Somehow I dont see the traditional gaming crowd getting of that couch and jigging in front of the TV.
 
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MS is fishing in a different pond than Sony.

Agreed with that overall, although there will inevitably be some overlap. IE - a Tennis game would be suitable for both. But a game designed with the accuracy of the Wand may not be suitable for Natal. And a game designed with completely handsfree body control obviously isn't going to be suitable to Wand.

We'll have a better idea what directions Sony and MS are going and a better idea what they are targetting at E3. I'm going to guess it's going to be a big part of both of their E3 presence.

Regards,
SB
 
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