NPD December 2009
- Thread starter RobertR1
- Start date
Based on current info. Yes. We don't know what Arc entails. It's hard to imagine it doing well.
Sony also has the tradition of doing too much and saying too little. So by default, they will muddle up the picture and confuse everyone, including themselves. The software will likely be piecemeal yet again.
I think it's inherently tied to their dated marketing model. I think they are still targeting a static 18 years old demography (like PS2). They are still using the hardware manufacturer's inventory/cost-based product approach (Slow stats driven, profit minded). They may be great at pushing large industry movement (like Blu-ray) and small, one-off CE devices, but ill-suited for fast-pace, high risk, consolidated platform.
A magic mirror app alone won't be able to cover their high cost.
Since Sony pushed back their Arc rollout (probably trying to grapple with 3D, Arc, Sony Online Services, and other products), it gives MS a clear channel to market Natal all the way to Christmas. Meanwhile, Sony will be doing piecemeal 3D marketing, may be PSN/Sony Online Services subscription later, and then last minute Arc possibly with delayed games. They seem to think more means better (Ha ha). Should be just one simple concept all the way.
When they consolidated into NPD, Kaz Hirai should have dropped projects to focus, *not* pick up more projects. I think they will get their *ss handed back to them in eBook and PSP (Should have focus on PSP and PS3 only). The Sony execs cannot yell orders from far behind, and hope that the middle managers help them to push the strategies. They need to be in the front line themselves.
Now these are all personal opinion after looking at things from the outside, and having no clue what Arc is. So let's see if Sony can beat/kick their old habits. When we know more about Arc, perhaps we can see if they are still following old scripts.
ShadowRunner
Veteran
I didnt see much Arc vs Natal going on. I dont think there is much doubt that Natal is going to do better if things stay as they are. Im questioning the reasoning behind Natals apeal thought. IMO its not apealing because it doesnt use a controller, its appealing because it allows full body motion controll.
For instance if natal was a small handheld device like wiimote, with rumble and a few buttons, that also used ultrasonic waves to map out the skeletal structure of the user holding it in would we be predicting it selling more or less than the current implementation. IMO its apeal would be just the same, its more about how intuitive something is to use and in this case it would be just as intuitive either way.
That 10-15% figure is very rough. We have also heard as much as 33%. It really depends on what application we are talking about.
It is clever software nonetheless.
Yes, Natal is cool and will attract lot's of users. But I also think that we will get similar solutions by the time they roll out. They pre-announced it too early. For many applications, you don't really need to track the full body. A faster and more fine-grained tracking can be more useful.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
I think Natal has much more selling potential to casuals and I certainly expect it to raise much more interest when it's released. As far as I'm concerned, I think the Arc will be more suitable to games that I like to play, so as far as playing games, I'm more interested with Sony's offering at the moment.
I think Natal is cool, especially as a user interface for other things than serious gameplay, and I'm sure there'll be plenty of proper content for it, but it won't be suitable for everything.
I think Natal is cool, especially as a user interface for other things than serious gameplay, and I'm sure there'll be plenty of proper content for it, but it won't be suitable for everything.
I don't think either will succeed; what does 'do well' mean in context of Natal? I think any hope of touching the Wii market will fall flat on its face. EyeToy-level success, which had 10 million peripherals sold (to a userbase of many more PS2s, of course)? Of course, if Natal is bundled the actual interested install-base might be difficult to gauge, but I'm not sure we'll see an effective install-base of 10 million Natal units by generation end.
Arc's 'success' depends on how it'll be bundled. If they follow Dualshock strategy and start bundling it in with new PS3s, then at least people who buy the peripheral will see 'ordinary' games adapted to more gimmicky controls, even if it won't see a single motion controller title that isn't a Wii port or first-party effort. If it's not bundled, expect it to do about as well as the PS Eye has (a game every 2 years, a gimmick or two in first-party games, a la LBP).
Yeah, I was reading some of the back-and-forth on the 'control' issue and for me... whether that plays a sub-conscious role or not, it is simply about straight up novelty. It is going to be about "look at this!," and waving your arms around and dancing all goofy and having the character on the screen do the same. I don't think being able to sit on a chair with a neural-helmet on having thought controlled gameplay would be as fun/silly, for instance, even though it would be an order of magnitude more awesome.
According to Mike Rein at Epic Natal will be bundled with every 360.
The leaked number of available Natal units available at launch (5 million) may indicate that as well.
The Sony information from the SEGA leak:
But that is of course all unconfirmed information and some speculation and some time has passed since that information was leaked so the picture may look very different now.
The leaked number of available Natal units available at launch (5 million) may indicate that as well.
The Sony information from the SEGA leak:
Assuming the world wide number mean units sold over the financial year, that may indicate Sony is not planning to bundle Arc with every unit.
But that is of course all unconfirmed information and some speculation and some time has passed since that information was leaked so the picture may look very different now.
No I don't think it will touch the Wii market either, but I do think it will better position itself as a "step up" console from the Wii - whatever that market even is - and that it will sell well as a peripheral in its own right. EyeToy PS2 era was more successful than EyeToy PS3 era as well we should note... Sony is actually moving backwards in their mindshare penetration of this device. How ridiculous is that? I'm a huge huge EyeToy fan, but even now there's not a cheap/simple bundle of games for PS3 like Play back on PS2.
I'm less interested ultimately though in the extent to which each respective peripheral will drive console sales (unpredictable) than I am the feeling as to how each respective peripheral will be viewed by the present ownership. I see a lot of 360 owners getting Natal, and I'm less clear on how many PS3 owners will pick up Arc. Maybe part of that is simply that Sony has yet to really demonstrate anything Arc related... but I understand the Wii, and what holding a motion controller means, and I'm having a hard time envisioning a break-out app.
I don't think that market exists; I don't think there's a market for people looking for a more pared back game experience AND looking to step up from the Wii. Even MS has dropped the PR line of having people move up from the Wii (Sony hasn't yet). Instead, Natal is focused on a different demographic that I'm not sure exists, either -- very close to the crowd Nintendo identified as 'NEVER' in last year's E3 presentation (but I might be very wrong).
To be clear, when I say 'EyeToy' I mean the PS2 one. The PS3 one is the PS Eye. The PS3 one is a non-entity.
I do see 360 owners getting Natal, that's true. I don't see them being terribly invested in Natal games, any more than 360 owners who own Wiis are invested in Wii games. I don't know if it'll be a lot of existing owners, though -- I'm excluding the faithful, who'll buy anything, from this count.
Like you, I don't really see PS3 owners going out to buy Arc. But if it's bundled with the console, then I see 3rd parties will be much less reluctant to support it and at the very least we'd see RE5-level support. If it's NOT bundled, then you'll see about as much 3rd party support as you do for the PS Eye. Except maybe for cheapo budget Wii party game ports (or maybe even not-so-cheapo stuff might show up as a test, like Boom Blox, only to fail and utterly kill all 3rd-party support).
Uh - yes! See I couldn't even remember the new name... and I'm like Eye of Judgment's biggest fan! Which was a great and brilliant game idea by the way, it just shouldn't have been the *only* major IP game idea tacked to the accessory. C'mon Sony, at least a Play redux...
No I don't see them being invested in Natal either, but so long as they buy it and a game or two, MS has has more than justified their R&D effort. And if a friend comes over and they find it worthy of purchase, doesn't matter that a week later it's sitting unused. And if MS on top of that finds a legitimately cool way to integrate it into more mainstream titles and/or non-gaming applications, well good on them.
Sony should go ahead with Arc by all means - afterall more is more - but I do think they should refocus some energy back onto PS Eye and it's assorted applications. Seriously it seems like a minimum of money would be required to bring it up to the level of 'decent' peripheral.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
The stuff MS is using camera may have been parallel researched by another company and certain things they did license/buy in order to realize the hardware.
The software and everything else that actually makes up Natal was almost all developed in house. Without that software and algorhythms Natal is nothing.
Regards,
SB
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Well with a rumored 14 titles being readied for launch (I fully expect a few to slip and not make the launch date), it's a matter of seeing what the devs have managed to do with Natal.
To put it into perspective that's almost as many launch titles as the X360 had when it launched (18 US, 16 Europe).
So at the very least MS is VERY serious about making Natal a serious product in it's own right. It's almost like they are launching a new console only it requires the old console in order to run. IE - rather than launching a new gimmick peripheral with a game or two.
I think we'll have a much better idea of Natal's possible longevity and attractiveness at E3 assuming MS announces some launch titles for it.
And at least one Dev., Capcom appear to be targetting the "hardcore" console market with a Natal Game. Although it won't be available for launch.
Regards,
SB
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
And this is the key and the reason why Natal could be huge for MS and the 360 and has potential worlds beyond anything that Arc might do or the wiimote has already done.
A controllerless interface that starts with the 360 but ends up with keyboard-less minority report-style PCs is where MS wants this tech to go, and that's where they are heading.
While the wiimote and Arc are gaming devices Natal can be immeasurably more than that.
If it is more, it will be a huge success. If it is merely a wiimote substitute (controllerless or not), it will be a failure.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Heh, I can see Natal becoming popular in offices for use in presentations, by motivational speakers doing presentations, etc for better control than a pointer + 3D free air mouse.
Regards,
SB
3D air mouse should be more accurate, especially for people who talk with their hands and body language. Speech recognition will likely fail here too during a long speech.
I think the problem with Logitech's air mouse is the transition between 2D (desktop sliding) use case and 3D (air) use case is unreliable. It's supposed to switch automatically and seamlessly. Otherwise, it's not a bad idea.
The initial Natal applications may be for areas that you cannot put a computer now (because it's too clumsy/risky to put in a mouse and keyboard -- e.g., easily stolen).
Can't really talk about usefulness of Arc because we are not sure if the pluggable patent makes it into the final product. If it has a plethora of cheap and good sensors, it will be a cool platform too.
I think the problem with Logitech's air mouse is the transition between 2D (desktop sliding) use case and 3D (air) use case is unreliable. It's supposed to switch automatically and seamlessly. Otherwise, it's not a bad idea.
The initial Natal applications may be for areas that you cannot put a computer now (because it's too clumsy/risky to put in a mouse and keyboard -- e.g., easily stolen).
Can't really talk about usefulness of Arc because we are not sure if the pluggable patent makes it into the final product. If it has a plethora of cheap and good sensors, it will be a cool platform too.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Yeah like a large (very large) display interactive presentation at a museum, expo, etc... That would be interesting.
Cheap hardware for interactive technology/performing art in community theaters.
Yeah could be lots of potential "out of the box" thinking ways of using it.
Regards,
SB
Hmm... not sure if a display is needed. The user may want to do something physical (like closing a door, turn on lights). In which case, it may not be necessary.
But yes, I do expect public exposure and use for Natal. However, I also wonder whether it could handle the additional load because there will be many people crowded around the unit, or merely walking by. Most of my friends expect their kids to ruin/override their gestures just for kicks.
But yes, I do expect public exposure and use for Natal. However, I also wonder whether it could handle the additional load because there will be many people crowded around the unit, or merely walking by. Most of my friends expect their kids to ruin/override their gestures just for kicks.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Yeah, for any sort of large public thing, they'd have to do something to cordon off a section and limit the amount of people in it at any given time. Something like a Science center or museum would be easily manageable. But a large public display might be a bit much.
Regards,
SB
