All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2018 Edition]
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djskribbles
Legend
X and Pro are niche products... X is not affecting Sony in any considerable way and it's not making them move up the timeline. Sony has stuck to basically the same timeline since the beginning.
PS1 - '94
PS2 - '00
PS3 - '06
PS4 - '13
PS5 - (likely) 2019/2020
6-7 years between console releases... nothing new.
This late in the generation, the core audience has already been established for the most part. Most people buying consoles these days are the casual gamers... buying the base systems.
I think you're giving X a little more credit than it deserves. Sure it boosted XB1 sales, but let's not forget that 2017 was a down year for XB1 due to the XB1X announcement and a dry software period. PS4 was sometimes selling 2x XB1 in the US. X is sort of just bringing it back to status quo.
X sold 430K in November (launch month). XB1 combined sold 1.37M. No numbers since then AFAIK.
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Deleted member 11852
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PS4 is not going to continue to sell its current rate indefinitely, there is a finite market for PS4/Pro sales. Demand can suddenly plummet like a rock off a cliff and you need your successor device's plans in play before that happens. The end of 2019 is eighteen months away and things could, and likely will, be different then.
The prime console market, selling devices to folks who willingly invest in new hardware and lots of new games, is likely close to sated. If you've not bought a PS4 (or Xbox One) five years after their launch, you're probably not somebody who will be buying a lot of new games so while the user base increases, average real revenue and profit revenue across the user base actually falls per capita - even allowing for better margins on hardware.
Sales aside, the reality is that regardless of when would be the ideal time to launch PS5, launching a product like a console is meticulously planned in advance. Things like pricing and some specifications may have wiggle room but you need semiconductors fabbed and millions of devices built. You can't just nip into Foxconn and ask for 8m consoles in two months time, their production lines are booked years in advance and production will begin 4-6 months in advance of launch. You may have wiggle room measured in days or a week but nothing more because whether you use the capacity of not, Foxconn are charging you for the plant time.
Hardware aside, you also have a commitment to developers. They need to developing more than a year in advance of new hardware launching and they will not invest heavily if the launch window isn't certain, because you need to have period of return (game sales).
Link?
Few things will affect that - Price [which will with the help of 7nm eventually come down to $199], continuing arrival of well-recieved high profile multiplatforms [COD, high profile Ubi games, sport games, DICE games, Rockstar games], and high appeal of 1st party games. This last one is important, because it can attract all three "tiers" of gamers - new casuals, casuals who are fans of previous games from specific IP/studio which are just now preparing to release game on ps4, and current ps4 owners [who just want to purchase more games].
IMO, the following games have very high appeal and can attract new console owners:
- God of War, 1st game of that franchise built only for PS4
- Spiderman, 1st game of that franchise built only for PS4
- TLOU2, 1st game of that franchise built only for PS4
- Death Stranding, 1st game of Kojima built only for PS4
- RDR2
- KH3
- FF7RE [timed exclusive]
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Deleted member 11852
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The only timeframe I've ever been able to discern from anything Sony have stated publicly makes 2019 the most likely launch year, based on PS4 Pro being a mid-gen console.
But again for the reasons stated above, people waiting for console prices to tumble to certain price tiers are also likely not big spenders on new games because they're likely as budget conscious with software as with hardware. If you can sit out buying a console for a few years and wait, you do the same for games when you have the console. Buy the last four year's games cheap and wait a year for all those delicious 2018 releases to be cheaper still in 2019 or 2020. These are generally not big contributors to Sony's coffers. If people buying PS4 as a new console in it's fourth or fifth year represent even 10% of profitability compared to early adopters, I'd be astonished.
It's really not about the size of the user base, it's about financial growth stagnation. It's worth noting that selling consoles cheaper is not necessarily great from a financial angle for Sony. This is from the 2nd February 2018 report.
Game & Network Services
Sales are expected to be lower than the October forecast primarily due to the impact of a change in launch dates of certain software titles, as well as the impact of higher-than-expected sales of hardware at promotional prices during the holiday season. The forecast for operating income remains unchanged primarily due to a reduction in selling, general and administrative expenses, substantially offset by the impact of the above-mentioned decrease in sales.
Sales figures/predictions for consoles this far into a generation are almost meaningless. Console prime meat eaters have dined well and will enjoy this generation's dessert (like the games you listed) but the people just rolling up to the generational dinner table now are picking the last bits of good meat from the bone from their all-you-can-eat buffet cheap entry fee.
Damn it, I'm hungry.
edit: typos/grammar/spelling
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I guess the more you make temporary price drop in one quarter the more you are borrowing from the next quarter and even prematurely selling to the gamers who were waiting for the official price drop time frame.The only timeframe I've ever been able to discern from anything Sony have stated publicly makes 2019 the most likely launch year, based on PS4 Pro being a mid-gen console.
But again for the reasons stated above, people waiting for console prices to tumble to certain price tiers are also likely not big spenders on new games because they're as likely budget conscious with their software as their hardware. If can sit out buying a console and wait, you do the same for games even when you have the console. Buy the last four years games cheap and wait a year for all those delicious 2018 releases to be cheaper still in 2019 or 2020. These are generally not big contributors to Sony's coffers. If people buying PS4 as a new console in it's fourth or fifth year represent even 10% of profitability compared to early adopters, I'd be astonished.
It's really not about the size of the user base, it's about financial growth stagnation. It's worth that selling consoles cheaper is not necessarily great from a financial angle for Sony. This is from the 2nd February 2018 report.
Game & Network Services
Sales are expected to be lower than the October forecast primarily due to the impact of a change in launch dates of certain software titles, as well as the impact of higher-than-expected sales of hardware at promotional prices during the holiday season. The forecast for operating income remains unchanged primarily due to a reduction in selling, general and administrative expenses, substantially offset by the impact of the above-mentioned decrease in sales.
Sales figures/predictions for consoles this far into a generation are almost meaningless. Console prime meat eaters have dined well and will enjoy that generation's dessert (like the games you listed) but the people just rolling up to the dinner table are picking last bits of good meat from the bone from their all you can eat buffet cheap entry fee.
Damn it, I'm hungry.
I don't remember previous gens having such long running temporary sales, wasn't it usually only BF and maybe some stores selling overstock?
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Deleted member 11852
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The economics are not entirely clear but there's only so many ways you can account the profit/losses for a hardware platform where the profit is really in software. Ideally you don't want to sell at a loss on hardware and Sony probably aren't but you have to wonder if margins are so low on some deals that somebody who buys few games, perhaps borrowing (no profit for Sony) or buying second hand (no profit for Sony) is even generating profit for Sony if they're not also subscribing to PSN.
Console economics have always revolved around attach rates but the presumption is those attach rates are sales of new full priced games.
Well they are, aren't they? Isn't it just the mean of total games sold over total consoles sold? Even if only 10% buying the games new and the rest buying them second hand, works out the same attach rate.
Sure it takes years to design, line up the supply chain, etc.
But I think they can defer or move up the ramp schedule and when they are seeding developers kits to start development of next gen games. I guess we may get hints that there are kits around some time this year if they were to launch in 2019 for instance.
If current gen sales are good, publishers may not be in a hurry to invest in next gen development right away.
But of course it's all driven by the platform owners. I don't track Sony's finances but my sense is that they're doing better the last few years compared to around 2010 because of the health of the PS4 market. When they reset to the next gen, they may or may not retain the advantages of the PS4. Remember that MS made some crucial errors with the introduction of the X1, such as price, due to Kinect 2, yielding performance and price advantage to the PS4.
Next launch may not be as favorable to Sony so there is always a risk that the winners and losers flip. So as long as the PS4 is generating good cash flow, Sony may be hesitant to hit the reset switch, which may or may not sustain their profits and cash flow streams.
well there is an eventual end to all things good, I guess it's up to debate for sure.
The product extension bit in my mind, are the mid generation refreshes. It buys them some time.
Eventually the whole product line will go into decline, they must release something else.
The 1X itself is probably powerful enough be a console generation on its own (a weak one compared to others). But they would only have to enable exclusives on 1X to make this change happen.
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Deleted member 11852
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Yup, that's all can measure. You can see the effect of a disproportionately small number of people buying a larger number of games in action by looking at Sony's reported attach rates. In early 2014 it was around 2.3 games, in early 2015 it was around 4 games, in early 2016 it was around 6 games, in early 2017 it was around 7 games and by end of 2017 it just under 9 games. Given the number of consoles sold and the regularity with which games are released, this is not any kind of linear incline even allowing for latter adopters not buying most/half/a-quarter? of old games cheap. New software sales numbers are also not keeping anywhere close to linear pace with the growing user base so people are either not buying games or not buying them new. I think GTA V sales is probably an example of this taken to the extreme.
That's a crazy conspiracy theory about sony's product planning.
Right here, B3D poster are mostly hardcore gamers. Yet every single one who bought an XB1X was upgrading from an XB1 (same for ps4 to pro) . We haven't seen hardcore gamers switching brand. Some were saying they want the most powerful console, but still bought the less powerful XB1 instead of the PS4, then continued not buying the Pro which was the most powerful console for a year, and I can tell who will not buy the PS5.
Yeah, core gamers move quickly... to their brand of choice no matter what. Core gamers are the biggest fanboys of all. They won't be throwing away their game collection and friend list. It takes a major event for that to happen in either direction.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
2021 is what I think.
Not switching brands, but on resetera there are a lot of users who picked up an xbox one x who didnt have xbox console before so they are switching platforms for the multiplatform titles.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/se...000-subscription-to-read-summary-in-op.33810/
Not really, but I couldn't help it. Since none of use are privy to Sony's internal timelines there will never be a link for such thing. But there is definitely a feeling in the air (which to be fair more originated on forums, but if Ps5 dev kits really are out there, that's something tangible). It could also be that whatever Sony's timeline is will never move an inch, we wouldn't know. Just there is definitely a feeling in the air, spurred the day X1X specs came out
eh.
Any possibility is as good as another.
6 years, 3 years a mid gen refresh. I mean... that could just make a hell of a lot more sense.
and MS looking at 8 year gen, 4 year for a mid gen refresh, those could be have been the original plans.
And honestly, they're starting to diverge imo, at least MS direction is pretty clear, they are more interested in the service side of things than the traditional model. I think Sony is just going to keep doing what they want to do on their own schedule.
Everyone thinks there are all sorts of 'responses' in the market, but consoles and ecosystems don't nearly move as fast as people think. You got to support the developers too and games take significantly longer to produce than just about any other type of consumer software in the market today. If there is any response by Sony, the only response they could have taken is to delay PS5, not to advance it. When you think about it, it's the only logical response Sony would do. Why take unnecessary risks when you're so far ahead?
Carefully plan out how next generation will play in your favour, do things on your terms. It's okay to let MS back into the game. It's okay to lose some market share and drag the generation out while you get your next product correct.
It's not going to be okay to rush into next generation and flunk.
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Also, i don't understand why a core gamer would buy a X instead of a PC... unless money is the problem or they prefer the console universe.
Really, it's not to start a fanboy thing, but just to stick to cold facts : Sony has more exclusives and they are more diversivied.
All X exclusives can be played on PC. But MS still wins anyway since PC = Windows.
Are we sure? I was seeing media create Japan sales the other day, week 13 2018, PS4 Pro 7.868, PS4 17,457
That is a lot of Pro's in a market that is known to care little about hardware power supposedly. About 31% Pro share. Unless there was some other factor at play (bundles or shortages etc) I wonder if the rest of the world is trending to Pro as well.
IMO the iterative versions will take larger share as time goes on not less, since power wins out in the long run, even power who's every advantage has been dulled.
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