All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2018 Edition]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by iroboto, Jan 11, 2018.

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  1. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    Weirdly different sales curve! Looks to be slowing down notably.
     
  2. Silent_Buddha

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    Interesting, the current generation in the UK looks to be far more seasonally dependent than the prior generation.

    The impact of a more "casual" oriented userbase being drawn to consoles maybe? Non-gamers (gift giving) or non-core gamers would be far less likely to buy a console outside of the holiday season.

    Regards,
    SB
     
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  3. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Black Friday became a thing in UK around 2013 right? Might explain the difference in seasonality between the 2 graphs.
     
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  4. DieH@rd

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    While Xbone is not selling well in Spain [at one point it was 7:1 in PS4's favour], more people are buying consoles now than last gen. Meaning, if competent consoles are out, people will buy them.
     
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  5. Entropy

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    It’s a pity Microsoft doesn’t share sales data.
    Sony+MS has held up well. Remains to be seen how the rest of this generation will progress. Migration to PC will be uncharacteristically low with the obscene prices on memory and graphics cards.
     
  6. Dr Evil

    Dr Evil Anas platyrhynchos
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    PS3 launched in Europe in March 2007 (X360 December 2005), thus in the curve the 2 consoles hit their holiday seasons at a different points, causing the non peaky look of it. The sales have always been heavily focused to the last quarter.
     
    #126 Dr Evil, Apr 1, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2018
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  7. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    On amazon US the GoW bundle is sold out practically the day they receive a new shipment. It looks like people take the BF bundle instead...

    #12 PS4 Pro BF
    #36 PS4 Slim
    #42 XB1S SoT
    #62 PS4 Pro
    #64 XB1X
    #73 XB1S pubg
    #82 XB1S 500G
    #95 PS4 Slim
    #300 PS4 Pro GoW
    #1800 XB1X SoT
    #2000 XB1X pubg
     
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  8. Globalisateur

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    There was a deal at $350 for the bf bundle
     
  9. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    Yep that explains it, it went back down within a day. Bundles are weird, they get old fast but they can't just swap the game for another one.
     
  10. Rangers

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    So, the total for PS4/Xbox One in Spain is around 3 million then? Eeeh, that's low. Maybe just one December in the U.S.

    PS4 could be up to 10-1 ratio in Spain apparently. Being conservative and calling it 4:1, that would be 2.4 PS4 and 600k Xbox? But really probably more slanted to PS? 2.6:400,000?

    Anybody got any other idea? Did we ever get any reliable hardware stats this gen from Spain?

    Edit: Here is something if reliable, way back Oct 2014, 360k PS 51k Xbox, 7:1

    http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2014/10/14/ps4-sales-seven-to-one-versus-xbox-one-in-spain/

    It doesn't seem to quite match with Ahmed's chart, Oct would have been like 11 months past release if Spain was "tier 1" for Xbox.

    Ehh, might be close enough. Zhuge's chart shows maybe like 500k around that time, but too imprecise to be sure anyway. Plus it might be 10 months or some different number depending on the age of the data at time reported.

    Here is another one that looks reliable, June 2015, 700k PS4, claimed 9:1 ratio over Xbox, which would mean 78k Xbox https://www.elotrolado.net/noticia_...y-600-000-ps-vita-en-espana-actualizada_26668

    So it could look more like 2.7 PS4 300,000 Xbox by now if we assume ~9:1

    Here is more recent one, Jan 2018 https://www.gamereactor.es/articulo...pana+ya+hay+mas+Nintendo+Switch+que+Xbox+One/

    Switch>300k. Xbox One < 300k (but presumably near).

    So yeah 2.7:.3 might be reasonable guess.
     
    #130 Rangers, Apr 4, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2018
  11. Rangers

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    Also, we got UK hardware numbers basically from that other Zhuge tweet!




    Does that look like 9 million to you guys when the graph ends? I'm gonna say 9 million....

    So given the ratios and pretending it's exactly 9 million, we'd have 5,130,000 PS4 vs 3,870,000 Xboxen.

    It's funny that jives with my normal crude estimate which people attack...UK~1/5 US population, similar console gaming popularity (unlike other EU countries which are one degree or another of less interested in console gaming than US/UK), so UK Xbox sales~1/5 USA,~4m.

    And now the numbers show, it's around 4m, crudely...good to know that's a decent estimation technique for the future for UK.
     
  12. Shifty Geezer

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    I don't recall that estimate ever being attacked. UK buying habits are very similar, certainly regards consoles. It's estimates for 'rest of world' and Amazon trendings that generate scepticism. ;)
     
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  13. Jupiter

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    "Ubisoft announced that Far Cry 5 more than doubled first week sell-through of Far Cry 4, making Far Cry 5 the fastest selling title in the franchise's history. Digital distribution accounted for more than 50 percent of those sales. Far Cry 5 now represents the second biggest launch ever for a Ubisoft game, following only Tom Clancy's The Division, with $310M USD in consumer spending through the first week. "

    https://news.ubisoft.com/article/far-cry-5-breaks-franchise-sales-records
     
  14. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    The big picture of the generation is that PS4 is now above 75m with no drop in momentum despite switch and xb1x additional competition.

    We don't know exactly where is XB1 sitting at right now. Points in time where we had resonable estimates always put XB1 around half the PS4 cumulative unit sales. Every year we had some isolated bump from XB1 in some region or some month, with rebates, releases, publicity push, etc... Or otherwise bumps on the PS side. None of those bumps caused a trend that changed the outlook for the final tally of the generation, so I think it will still end around the same 2:1 give or take a few percent.

    My 2:1 figure could be wrong, or imprecise because we don't have many regions data, but then just calculate how the balance of sales need to change in order to finish the generation at, say 1.8:1. Even such a small difference would require a truly massive shift.

    I mean the generation is done. If next gen is 2020, there's two xmas seasons left. And probably only one before we get next gen specs leak and hype.
     
  15. wco81

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    If you're right, we can probably kill all expectations of a PS5 launch in 2019. Maybe 2020 as well if the PS4 and Pro is still continuing to sell well. They haven't had to drop it to $199 yet. What was the price of the PS3 and PS2 at comparable points in their cycles? Seems like those consoles came down in price more quickly.

    Of course there are other variables like the AMD and process shrink road maps.
     
  16. Shifty Geezer

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    https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/06/are-the-ps4-and-xbox-one-really-that-expensive-historically/

    [​IMG]

    Tracking looks similar to original PS so far. Lots of data on console prices at that link for you to create your own comparisons.

    Edit: Nope, PS drops like a rock. I think that darker orange is the CDi? The RGB values of the lines don't match the RGB of the key, making it impossible to tell what's what. The key has the same RGB value for Sega CD and NES (255,38,0), meaning this graph is technically termed in statistical parlance "a bit shit."

    Looking at the other graph that separates consoles by year, PS4 is tracking akin to XB360, Wii, and SNES, with lower decreases.
     
    #136 Shifty Geezer, Apr 4, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2018
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  17. Globalisateur

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    LOL. Arstechnica. Talking about all launch prices of all systems and price drops of all systems...except the most important data: the average selling price of PS4 and XB1 since 2013.

    How can they even discuss "how much can we expect the new consoles to drop in price" without that easily available data ?

    I believe that the average selling price of PS4 in January 2018 was even higher than in january 2017...
     
  18. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    Easily available with their time machine? It's an article written in June 2013 before the consoles released, using the announced RRPs.
     
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  19. Rangers

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    The generation is "done" in a sense, with the large baked install base, but the smaller group of most active core gamers moves fast, and that's why there's still fluidity in software sales. For example, in real terms Switch and Xbox One X are still threats to PS4. The Xbox One X is likely why Sony has been moving up PS5 timeline. It's a very real threat. Core gamers can move to it quickly.

    Like with that "annual spend" chart. Showing Nintendo/Switch/3DS/SNES Mini already surpassing Microsoft/Xbox One...perfect example. Switch will not threaten Xbox install base for a bit but it can sell more software quickly.
     
  20. Rangers

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    50% digital! May be a bit skewed with PC which is almost 100% digital, but still.

    $310m USD spending seems a bit muted compared to some past launches though. Didn't MS tout 500m with Halo 5? Activision similar with COD etc? And that was many inflation years ago.

    Still, Ubisoft seems to be "killing it". The consolidation of the industry continues, Activision/EA/Ubi/Take Two are too big to fail. There aren't that many triple A launches, so customers are almost forced to buy the ones that remain.
     
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