Peter Moore says that Xbox360 could possibly adopt a Blu Ray addon

[London Geezer]

I'll go on the record and say that I'd be very surprised if HD-DVD survives into 2008. I predict a summer 2007 end. The main reason being it doesnt have one single advantage over Blu-ray that is very relevant in long term production.

Doesn't matter. As long as MS stick their noses into this, HDDVD will survive, much like Bluray will survive as long as all the companies supporting it, keep supporting it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Doesn't matter. As long as MS stick their noses into this, HDDVD will survive.

Only if MS pay the movie studios to release to the format! Or subsidize the cost of HDDVD players. MS have no content to put on HDDVD. If there's no content from the content providers, no-one will buy HDDVD players, whether MS want them too or not. AFAIK the only reason MS are in favour of HDDVD is because that format should guarentee that people can rip movies to their PC. Actually, why IS MMC so important? How many people are going to rip terabytes worth of movies?

 

[London Geezer]

Only if MS pay the movie studios to release to the format! Or subsidize the cost of HDDVD players. MS have no content to put on HDDVD. If there's no content from the content providers, no-one will buy HDDVD players, whether MS want them too or not. AFAIK the only reason MS are in favour of HDDVD is because that format should guarentee that people can rip movies to their PC. Actually, why IS MMC so important? How many people are going to rip terabytes worth of movies?

Don't ask me, i think that whole thing is a shamble.

 

[expletive]

Sony cannot lose the format war because "losing" it has no effect on them. They can only benefit.

Well 2 things will effect them imo:

1. What scooby said about economies of scale driving down prices for the hardware
2. They lose a perceived 'checkbox' advantage against revolution and 360 (if the external HD-DVD drive hasnt done that already).

 

[expletive]

Only if MS pay the movie studios to release to the format! Or subsidize the cost of HDDVD players. MS have no content to put on HDDVD. If there's no content from the content providers, no-one will buy HDDVD players, whether MS want them too or not. AFAIK the only reason MS are in favour of HDDVD is because that format should guarentee that people can rip movies to their PC. Actually, why IS MMC so important? How many people are going to rip terabytes worth of movies?

Its not the ripping as much as the streaming that MS wants. My understanding is that MMC also allows for HD-DVD streaming to a 360 or other extender from Vista. Thats the big lynchpin in the MS "connected home with our OS as the hub" strategy.

 

[wireframe]

It seems that people are arguing that MS and the XBOX 360 are now worse off then they were before the announcement of an external HD-DVD drive. Is that really the case? I think the responses should range from 'no better off' to "FTW' but how can they be worse off then they were by having no solution?

You are probably right. They are not worse off. It just reveals more about the "true" state they were in before the announcement IMO.

Internet arguments and religious zealotry aside, I am a big fan of fanaticism. You go all the way or you forget about it. So, if Microsoft's vision was that the Xbox 360 was to live in a DVD world, that's a fine choice. However, when you begin stumbling around, especially with words and not actions, it begins to look like maybe the man in charge doesn't know what needs to be done to achieve objectives. This causes low morale in the troops. Making sense?

So, now it sounds like you will be able to upgrade your Xbox 360 with a HD-DVD driver or a Blu-Ray one. How very confusing. A dual support device (HD-DVD + Blu-Ray) would be nice here. Still, it's an add-on I don't fully grasp the benefit of. If games won't use it, what will the Xbox 360 do with one of these drives attached that cannot be achieved with a discrete unit? Will it cost less or will there suddenly be some revolutionary new OS for the Xbox 360?

This is what I am talking about. It just reveals a weakness in Microsoft IMO. It is not a flaw in the device that is the Xbox 360, per se, but it reveals an inability of Microsoft to commit to a format and be forward thinking. I still don't understand why they didn't wait for HD-DVD to include that as base. I suppose it has to do with their "fear" of Blu-Ray and taking a risk of being stuck with a dead medium that suddenly becomes expesive to use because the economies of scale were pulled out from under its feet. I also don't really grasp the HDD situation and the general vision behind the Xbox to be honest. Microsoft has so many weapons that I feel they are not using (I expected them to turn a console into a console + TiVo + networked media player before anyone else).

Sony is not free of faults either. Their lack of HDD is a definite negative. However, the HDD would be most important/useful if TiVo like capabilities were built-in. Without the software/capabilities, the hardware would just sit and rot. I just don't understand why neither is aggressive enough to cut into this market. Sony needs something to shine with in consumer electronics and Microsoft needs an edge in the console business. There it is, but neither is willing to run all the way with it. Must be some complex contracts keeping their hands off the ball or maybe I am just wrong in thinking that a true media center like device would be a killer product, a true 21st century toy. (which would be nice because I think most people, myself included, thought the year 2000 was going to be special and then..."what just happened? NOTHING!!!")

 

[expletive]

You are probably right. They are not worse off. It just reveals more about the "true" state they were in before the announcement IMO.

Internet arguments and religious zealotry aside, I am a big fan of fanaticism. You go all the way or you forget about it. So, if Microsoft's vision was that the Xbox 360 was to live in a DVD world, that's a fine choice. However, when you begin stumbling around, especially with words and not actions, it begins to look like maybe the man in charge doesn't know what needs to be done to achieve objectives. This causes low morale in the troops. Making sense?

So, now it sounds like you will be able to upgrade your Xbox 360 with a HD-DVD driver or a Blu-Ray one. How very confusing. A dual support device (HD-DVD + Blu-Ray) would be nice here. Still, it's an add-on I don't fully grasp the benefit of. If games won't use it, what will the Xbox 360 do with one of these drives attached that cannot be achieved with a discrete unit? Will it cost less or will there suddenly be some revolutionary new OS for the Xbox 360?

This is what I am talking about. It just reveals a weakness in Microsoft IMO. It is not a flaw in the device that is the Xbox 360, per se, but it reveals an inability of Microsoft to commit to a format and be forward thinking. I still don't understand why they didn't wait for HD-DVD to include that as base. I suppose it has to do with their "fear" of Blu-Ray and taking a risk of being stuck with a dead medium that suddenly becomes expesive to use because the economies of scale were pulled out from under its feet. I also don't really grasp the HDD situation and the general vision behind the Xbox to be honest. Microsoft has so many weapons that I feel they are not using (I expected them to turn a console into a console + TiVo + networked media player before anyone else).

Sony is not free of faults either. Their lack of HDD is a definite negative. However, the HDD would be most important/useful if TiVo like capabilities were built-in. Without the software/capabilities, the hardware would just sit and rot. I just don't understand why neither is aggressive enough to cut into this market. Sony needs something to shine with in consumer electronics and Microsoft needs an edge in the console business. There it is, but neither is willing to run all the way with it. Must be some complex contracts keeping their hands off the ball or maybe I am just wrong in thinking that a true media center like device would be a killer product, a true 21st century toy. (which would be nice because I think most people, myself included, thought the year 2000 was going to be special and then..."what just happened? NOTHING!!!")

I think everything youve said is fair and accurate. The only thing i would add is that before we judge this move, we should see how MS uses it to play into their strategy. Theyve said from the beginning they want to drop the price on the 360 ASAP. If this allows them to get to $199 much faster than Sony then you have to think that this may have not been some kneejerk reaction ( i still dont think it is since theyve known about HD-DVD and BR int he PS3 for a LONG time).

A $199 360 while the PS3 is at $299 is probably a significant advantage. So at that point, it may have been a very wise move on their part. Not every PS3 owner cares about having a BR player, just like every 360 owner doesnt NOT care about haveing an HD-DVD drive. MS is betting that its better to have just the people that want the ability, pay for it. This way they can drive the 360s price down to the 'magic pricepoint' asap.

Again this is just my idea of why they did this. Until any of these events (namely price drops) actually take place, we're kind of feeling around in the dark.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

Well Kaz (President and CEO of SCEA) himself said that years later most PS3 games will be on Blu-ray. Is it possible that he is seeing or knows something that we don't? PR? Or the truth?

Whether games will be on BRD or will need to be on BRD are two different things entirely. What I said is that I doubt many will need to be. You might find at least Sony titles being released on BRD (possibly with a claim that they had to be) when they would have fit just fine on DVD9.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Its not the ripping as much as the streaming that MS wants. My understanding is that MMC also allows for HD-DVD streaming to a 360 or other extender from Vista. Thats the big lynchpin in the MS "connected home with our OS as the hub" strategy.

That doesn't need managed copy though, does it (unless managed copy is just a really bad name!)? Broadcasting of an HD signal could be managed by taking an HDCP output, turning it into a transmission, receiving at another end and sending onto the TV. I thought MMC is about limiting the amount and types of copies of content that an 'owner' (should that be licensee these days?) can make.

 

[scooby_dooby]

the only reason MS are in favour of HDDVD is because that format should guarentee that people can rip movies to their PC. Actually, why IS MMC so important? How many people are going to rip terabytes worth of movies?

or connect the 200-disc changer that they support in media centre, and share those throughout your entire house using simple network extenders.

It just occured to me this might not be an MMC thing though...need to research! google here I come...

 

[scooby_dooby]

Will it cost less or will there suddenly be some revolutionary new OS for the Xbox 360?

Yes, it will costs less. Otherwise what's the point? Of course it's supposed to cost less than a discrete player, that's the entire concept behind it. It could potentially work with your PC as well, like the controllers do, for some more value added.

I still don't understand why they didn't wait for HD-DVD to include that as base.

Because, if they adopted HD-DVD they could very well end up with a expensive drive that loses a format war, same if they adopted BR, and there goes any chance of getting a $150 core for 2007(just an example). It's not in MS's best interest to 'gamble' on either format, because they stand to gain nothing from them. They would've had to wait until at least 2007 to be able to make a safe reliable bet and that was out of the question.

 

[one]

MMC is no issue for Microsoft. iHD and BD-J are.

 

[wireframe]

Yes, it will costs less. Otherwise what's the point? Of course it's supposed to cost less than a discrete player, that's the entire concept behind it. It could potentially work with your PC as well, like the controllers do, for some more value added.

Have they talked any prices or are they still in this fluff stage? (ie: "We can do this and this and this...and of course this." heh)

Because, if they adopted HD-DVD they could very well end up with a expensive drive that loses a format war, same if they adopted BR, and there goes any chance of getting a $150 core for 2007(just an example). It's not in MS's best interest to 'gamble' on either format, because they stand to gain nothing from them. They would've had to wait until at least 2007 to be able to make a safe reliable bet and that was out of the question.

That seems very reasonable and I thought I typed it in the post above, but I guess that was in some other edit that I didn't post.

 

[scooby_dooby]

No prices, but if it's not signifigantly cheaper than standalone players that I would agree wholeheartedly with you on all your points.

However, the concept of an external drive is that it costs less than a standalone, so I am expecting it to stay below the standalone prices for most of it's lifetime.

 

[seismologist]

PS3 is a software Blu Ray player right? So the only additional cost to the system is the blue laser itself.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It just occured to me this might not be an MMC thing though...need to research! google here I come...

That's the million dollar question! If MMC isn't needed for broadcasting, why do MS care? Of course if it is, that explains the concern, but I'd have thought a wireless HDMI convertor would solve that!

 

[Bobbler]

That's the million dollar question! If MMC isn't needed for broadcasting, why do MS care? Of course if it is, that explains the concern, but I'd have thought a wireless HDMI convertor would solve that!

I thought it had more to do with iHD and BD-J than MMC, like one also mentioned. MMC is just a feature they wanted so they can rip the disc to their HDD. And even the iHD/BD-J issue is just MS being a bit stubborn (they probably don't want to depend on Java at all). I don't think there are any technical issues that limit either side from doing something like that. The only real difference on the software side between the two formats is iHD and BD-J (and Mpeg2 support in BR), otherwise they now claim the same features and abilities.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I thought it had more to do with iHD and BD-J than MMC, like one also mentioned.

That might well be the real reason for MS's concerns, but their public stance has been more of one of MMC. If that really is their concern I'd like to know why.

 

[Bobbler]

That might well be the real reason for MS's concerns, but their public stance has been more of one of MMC. If that really is their concern I'd like to know why.

Well, both have MMC now (that was one of the concessions BR group made, but it is staying with BD-J), so I don't see how it could _really_ be that. iHD is mostly MS' creation (not sure if it was entirely them or what, but at the very least they had a lot to do with it), BD-J is java and a competitor to iHD -- not only would it require MS to more actively support Java in their new OS, but if they wanted BR to work out of the box they'd likely need a Java client installed out of the box, which is rather against how MS has previously handled such things. My vote is iHD vs BD-J, and I can fully understand their position if that's the case.

If you were MS, would you go with iHD (which is almost inherently supported with your product) or BD-J if you had a choice? I can see where MS is coming from, but as a consumer I don't necessarily like it -- from everything I've seen, I'd much prefer BR given the choice between them; MS isn't a consumer, they are a provider so their choices often don't exactly match our choices.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well, Google hooked me up.

According to ArsTechnica MMC includes:
1. copying to a HDD
2. transferring a movie
3. streaming to a portable player
4. streaming content on a home network

So it's much more than 'ripping your disc to your HDD.'

And the difference between BR and HD-DVD right now is BR is not mandatory, so the studio has the option of not supporting it, while HD-DVD is mandatory.

Currently, HD DVD is the only next-gen format to provide for the ability to legally make copies of optical content. Dubbed "Managed Copy," HD DVD implements part of the AACS control mechanism to allow for things such as putting digital copies of a disc on a hard drive, transferring a movie (legally) to a portable player, or streaming content on a home network.

Furthermore, HD DVD makes Managed Copy mandatory: all content provided on HD DVD must give users the option of making at least one copy. Jordi Ribas, director of technical strategy for the Windows Digital Media Division, told me that while the feature is mandatory, the studios will have the option of charging for it. Ribas hopes that studios will allow at least a single copy "for free," but it may be market conditions that ultimately determine the cost of such features. The take-away, at least, is that studios have to offer something, and AACS is structured in such a way that the studios can tap into it to offer users more options.

^ Written in september, so BR now support voluntary MC.
http://arstechnica.com/articles/paedia/hardware/microsoft-hd-dvd.ars

And some info on iHD which MS seems to be supporting:
Around the same time period, the PC peddling giant HP, coincidentally came out with a press release "asking" the Blu-ray Disc

Association to include mandatory Managed Copy and iHD as part of its format specification. HP felt that Managed Copy and iHD would best address the fundamental technical needs of the PC and the digitally connected home. Otherwise, they were going to pull support for Blu-ray. They got part of their wish, the managed copy, but not iHD. In addition, Blu-ray leaves it up to the studios on a disc-by-disc basis, to add managed copy or not.

What is iHD? iHD, would be a way to provide consumers with enhanced content, navigation interactivity and functionality for these next gen film discs. You can use it to make legitimate copies or even to send your films about the house on a home network. It has been noted publicly (for instance the above linked press release) that Microsoft is poised to provide iHD support in the Windows Vista operating system. Surprise!

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/12755

It seems to be 2 issues at this point, 1st of all with BR studios have the option of not allowing any copies, period. And secondly, MS will be implementing iHD in windows, and wants to use iHD to stream/share movies throughout the house, BR wants to use Java.