scooby_dooby said:Of course they will, not the point.
If BR Fails: Pople who bought a ps3 are left in the dust, if they're gaming tails off, they no longer have a HD movie player. They need to start looking for a standalone...
This is no different than to those people that bought the HD-DVD add-on and dies later on. The key difference is: While on the PS3 no added costs was required to get that Blu-Ray as a movie player extra, the HD-DVD add-on for Xbox360 is limited to that usage which is gone if HD-DVD dies.
scooby_dooby said:IF HD-DVD Fails: People who buy a 360 (in 2008, 2009, 2010) can upgrade to BR for a fraction of the price of a standalone.
That fraction of the cost is no more than that fraction of the cost Sony could offer a HD-DVD add on AND make a profit (just as Microsoft will be selling theirs to make an added profit).
scooby_dooby said:So in both scenarios MS comes out pretty clean with no real losses, and it's more futureproof in the sense that no matter what happens, it will support the winning format. So no big losses either way, and a true marketing advantage if HD-DVD wins
I disagree. By actually saying that they'll support Blu-Ray if HD-DVD looses out doesn't exactly much confidence into the product that they supporting. On the other hand, Sony's strategy is clear and simple: Buy a PS3, you get a free Blu-Ray movie player with it. If Blu-Ray doesn't win, no big deal for the consumer - he never payed for an add-on and can still benefit from the usage of games using the Blu-Ray medium and its advantages. In fact, I'm betting 3 years down the road, no one will care much about having a Blu-Ray player in PS3 regardless which format wins, since the standalone players will be already sold at a cheaper price while being more convinient. Within the first years though while the format war is undecided, Sony's clear marketing strategy is an advantage as it's sending out the message "Blu-Ray is the future, there's no format war".
scooby_dooby said:(Sony could create a external hd-dvd drive, but there's just no way they ever will, so it's a pretty meaningless statement)
Why wouldn't they? If Blu-Ray is dead and they can make more money by selling an add-on, there's no reason they wouldn't offer such a thing if the demand is there. However, this point is futile since I, as noted above, don't think they'll be much demand 3 years down the road since the minority will still be using their PS3/Xbox360 as movie players when standalone players will be sold at a lower price.
scooby_dooby said:On the other hand, if BR wins then sony has a huge cost AND marketng advantage so I really doubt the BR addition is going to be much of a sales driver for 360 in that scenario.
Exactly.
scooby_dooby said:At the most it will probably give people one less reason NOT to buy the 360 if they were leaning towards it, they can trust that it's futureproof at least.
That's a very flawed argument. It's not as if the PS3 will stop working if Blu-Ray fails. Reality check: PS3 will live on and games will still be using the format and its advantages. Since people didn't pay for a costly add-on in the first place, it isn't really a loss. Sony will have less of an advantage to push, that's about the only drawback I can think of. As I noted above though, this drawback won't be a big one 3 years down the road since stand-alone players will be sold cheaper by then (and to the consumers convinience).