Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[Nisaaru]

Seems they may be going that way again, selling at a loss.

Without knowing the final SOC size, 14nm+yield why even assume this? You simply can't compare PC GPU board prices with these licensed pre-financed custom deals. The market and product financing is completely different.

The XB1 SoC is around 360mm2, AMD Tahiti/7970 GPU had 352mm2. Did we pay a comparable price? No. But both are closer in real cost than actual "market price".

Polaris10 is a lot smaller and adding a CPU+misc will take even less size comparable at 14nm.

Following MS's latest narrative about their next console I expect heat is a far more pressing concern than squeezing out the last few USD when these few USD per console might be the lynchpin deciding success or failure.

Better spend money on hardware than waste it on PR fighting an already lost battle. My understanding is that Phil Spencer took that lesson to heart from the 2013 debacle.

 

[trainplane]

I really hope MS doesn't force cross compatibility on all games like Sony. The power delta is too big and the ESRAM of the XBox One will make it so we won't see the full potential of this machine if all titles are cross compatible.

Sure, in the beginning, publishers will want to do cross compatible but as this machine's base grows, it should have it's own exclusives. If the XBox One Two will share games with PC, those of us who are PC gamers will benefit from the new machine not being tied down to the XBox One One. The sooner MS can leave ESRAM in the rear view mirror, the better.

 

[ramr]

If it's aimed as an XB1 replacement or new system... then yes.

If it's aimed as an additional platform sku, a high-end sku, for a smaller sector, those diehard gamers (i.e. those who would purchase a $150 joypad), ... then no.

My only question is: How can MS combat a possible 60 million PS4 install base by the time Scorpio launches, with the potential of Sony releasing Neo+ or even Neo having the capability of being upgradable? A very uphill battle...

Well, I think that they beat them on price. Have digital only XB1 slim for $199 versus PS4 at $349/$299. Also, I would hope that MS would use the die shrink to go with Polaris 11 replacing the GPU part of chip. That combined with polaris data compression, high clocks, and faster DDR4 memory could give a $199 digital device with 50%+ improvements in effective BW and 50% + performance lead over base PS4, all at $199 / $249.

I would also complete ditch the internal HDD for 256 GB of flash since externals are already supported.

If they can go the low cost route then they can win share and blunt the impact of NEO with promise of a significantly better machine in a few months (6 assuming NEO in Q3 and Scorpio in Q1

 

[Scott_Arm]

Yah, the compatibility between Xbox One and Xbox One-Two is going to be interesting. Not sure how they're going to make it work. My guess is it'll launch in 2017 and they'll ask devs to support Xbox One until fall 2019 and then cut it off. That'll give xbox one about a 6 year lifespan and 3 years for the xbox one slim, which is fairly solid. Then after that it's Scorpio only.

 

[Shortbread]

Also, the point would be for Scorpio to offer a distinctly obvious superiority over the Neo and be a true next gen console, not a half-generation iterative step that is leashed to its existing 40 million user base.

So, what's the point of purchasing an XB1 and any slim models that follows? Since, your opinion is pointing towards the XB1 getting the XB-OG treatment (put to rest).

 

[Nesh]

Well this continuous upgradeability of consoles is kinda disturbing me. Say whatever you want about not accepting progress, but simplicity is part of progress as well.
For economic and psychological reasons, my console purchase was determined by various factors. Some of them include the specs, features and how games play.

For someone who has a lot of money and simply buys whatever is out there, it is no problem.

People like me who want to purchase a console once until the next generation not so much. Now I face the questions:
Should I buy it now or wait for the next upgrade?
If I wait thats a lot of games I will miss until then. If I dont wait, the upgraded console will play the newer games as they were meant to be, not so much my first console of the line. But this means I will have to sell and repurchase.
Should I buy console A or console B? What if the upgrade of the other console is superior to the upgrade of the console I am planning to buy now?
Should I buy console A cause its more powerful than B (in this case PS4)? Or should I wait for the potentially more powerful upgrade of console B?

Now I am not so sure when and what to purchase or what to expect from each console line.
These were pretty much fixed in the past. You knew what each console was capable of and what to expect from games. Simple. Now you dont. I have friends who were planning to buy a console sooner, but now they are unsure. I have friends who are pissed that a better console may exist and they will want to purchase again the newer one. These concerns never existed before

 

[Shortbread]

Well this continuous upgradeability of consoles is kinda disturbing me. Say whatever you want about not accepting progress, but simplicity is part of progress as well.
For economic and psychological reasons, my console purchase was determined by various factors. Some of them include the specs, features and how games play.

For someone who has a lot of money and simply buys whatever is out there, it is no problem.

People like me who want to purchase a console once until the next generation not so much. Now I face the questions:
Should I buy it now or wait for the next upgrade?
If I wait thats a lot of games I will miss until then. If I dont wait, the upgraded console will play the newer games as they were meant to be, not so much my first console of the line. But this means I will have to sell and repurchase.
Should I buy console A or console B? What if the upgrade of the other console is superior to the upgrade of the console I am planning to buy now?
Should I buy console A cause its more powerful than B (in this case PS4)? Or should I wait for the potentially more powerful upgrade of console B?

Now I am not so sure when and what to purchase or what to expect from each console line.
These were pretty much fixed in the past. You knew what each console was capable of and what to expect from games. Simple. Now you dont. I have friends who were planning to buy a console sooner, but now they are unsure. I have friends who are pissed that a better console may exist and they will want to purchase again the newer one. These concerns never existed before

Just like everthing else in life, choices can be tough, but it shouldn't stop you from making one. Enjoy your choice (in this case - purchase) for what it is, and not worry over what it can't do. Just saying...

 

[mpg1]

Yah, the compatibility between Xbox One and Xbox One-Two is going to be interesting. Not sure how they're going to make it work. My guess is it'll launch in 2017 and they'll ask devs to support Xbox One until fall 2019 and then cut it off. That'll give xbox one about a 6 year lifespan and 3 years for the xbox one slim, which is fairly solid. Then after that it's Scorpio only.

Xbox One is basically going to be original Xbox in terms of lifespan. 4 years + couple of years after new console is out.

As a person who hasn't bought a console yet this gen I was probably going to get a Xbox One slim...but I'd be stupid not to just wait now.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Xbox One is basically going to be original Xbox in terms of lifespan. 4 years + couple of years after new console is out.

As a person who hasn't bought a console yet this gen I was probably going to get a Xbox One slim...but I'd be stupid not to just wait now.

Depends how cheap the slim is, I guess. If it's pretty cheap it'll still probably last three years, which isn't too bad. But it depends on the price.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

So, what's the point of purchasing an XB1 and any slim models that follows? Since, your opinion is pointing towards the XB1 getting the XB-OG treatment (put to rest).

Because scorpio won't be out for over a year? Because the XB1S will allow you to play XB1 games, plus stream at 4K, maybe even play XB1 games with a performance boost? Because the XB1S will be smaller and cheaper?

There's a litany of reasons to still buy a XB1S just because a next-gen console has been announced. Furthermore, if the W10/XB integration actually happens the question isn't "Why buy a XB1/XB1S?", the question is "Why buy a scorpio?"

Of course, there are clear answers to both of those questions and they depend on the consumer's individual circumstances and desires.

 

[Michellstar]

With all the integration with Pc, UWP, DX12 and so on, XBOne won´t be eoled anytime soon

 

[BadTB25]

I hope Scorpio offers more than just playing Xbox One games. It would be clincher if you could play Steam and other UWP games on it as well. That would be the dream for me.

 

[Niebotskick]

Well this continuous upgradeability of consoles is kinda disturbing me. Say whatever you want about not accepting progress, but simplicity is part of progress as well.
For economic and psychological reasons, my console purchase was determined by various factors. Some of them include the specs, features and how games play.

For someone who has a lot of money and simply buys whatever is out there, it is no problem.

People like me who want to purchase a console once until the next generation not so much. Now I face the questions:
Should I buy it now or wait for the next upgrade?
If I wait thats a lot of games I will miss until then. If I dont wait, the upgraded console will play the newer games as they were meant to be, not so much my first console of the line. But this means I will have to sell and repurchase.
Should I buy console A or console B? What if the upgrade of the other console is superior to the upgrade of the console I am planning to buy now?
Should I buy console A cause its more powerful than B (in this case PS4)? Or should I wait for the potentially more powerful upgrade of console B?

Now I am not so sure when and what to purchase or what to expect from each console line.
These were pretty much fixed in the past. You knew what each console was capable of and what to expect from games. Simple. Now you dont. I have friends who were planning to buy a console sooner, but now they are unsure. I have friends who are pissed that a better console may exist and they will want to purchase again the newer one. These concerns never existed before

If your friends get pissed that something better might exist than the thing they bought (which happens all the time in any other industry), then perhaps their obsession with wanting to have the latest and the greatest is the problem, and not the iterative console model.

 

[trainplane]

A few thoughts.

1. If MS releases a console every 3-4 years, this seems in line with AMD introducing a new architecture/node shrink.

2. If an XBox One-Three comes out in 2020, I don't think it will be more than 12-14 TFLOPS so the delta between that and XBox One-Two won't be too great. But it will leave the XBox One-One in the dust.

3. If MS/Sony doesn't introduce a better CPU, these systems will be out of balance. GPU's getting much more powerful while CPU's only a little more.

4. I think MS cares about UWP more than XBox. They use XBox as just a consumer friendly UWP outlet. It's basically an MS gaming PC. It's a Windows 10 PC without the desktop. MS will get their 30% cut whether a game is on the Windows Store or XBox.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I hope Scorpio offers more than just playing Xbox One games. It would be clincher if you could play Steam and other UWP games on it as well. That would be the dream for me.

Never go full PC.


... actually I agree.

 

[3dilettante]

I would hope whatever sources there are aren't just taking a look at the Xbox One's die shot, seeing they could replace the area of the ESRAM with GPU and effectively give it twice the area with 28 CUs, multiply by 2 for 14/16nm, remove 4 since Durango inactivated 2, and then give it Neo's rumored 911 MHz.

Guess what that multiplies out to in TFLOPs.

How one would feed that GPU absent an optimization like an on-die memory subsystem that on its own rivals a stack of HBM2 would be curious.

 

[Shortbread]

Because scorpio won't be out for over a year? Because the XB1S will allow you to play XB1 games, plus stream at 4K, maybe even play XB1 games with a performance boost? Because the XB1S will be smaller and cheaper?

Smaller and cheaper isn't going to turn the XB1 circumstances around. Pretty much this generation is cooked. Offering smaller units has more to do with shrinks and cost saving measures, than making the public happy with smaller boxes. The reason for Scorpio (if a thing) is to press restart on rebuilding the XBOX brand within the console space. Which is good thing. The problem that I see now, if it's a true next-generation system, then XB1 and it's smaller brethren time (cycle) will be shorten on moving over to the more robust hardware.

There's a litany of reasons to still buy a XB1S just because a next-gen console has been announced. Furthermore, if the W10/XB integration actually happens the question isn't "Why buy a XB1/XB1S?", the question is "Why buy a scorpio?"

All those litany of reasons must be obvious to you... at the moment, the market (mass majority of gamers) aren't seeing it.

Of course, there are clear answers to both of those questions and they depend on the consumer's individual circumstances and desires.

Although gamers (console gamers) can be very fickle at times, most will just gravitate to the hottest product and the one that offers the most value. And as of now, the market is speaking clearly in one's favor.

 

[AzBat]

I think some of you need to consider that a Scorpio with "possible" new gameplay experiences over XB1 doesn't necessarily mean the death of XB1 & XB1S ala the original Xbox. It will be more like the 360 to XB1 transition, but with a longer lifespan. A lot of people still bought 360 after the XB1 was released due to customers being price conscious or family-minded experiences they couldn't get on XB1. XB1 may not have the latter this time, but it can possibly hit the lower price point with the Slim. So like other product families they have both an entry & a high-end model.

Tommy McClain

 

[Rangers]

Well this continuous upgradeability of consoles is kinda disturbing me. Say whatever you want about not accepting progress, but simplicity is part of progress as well.

As I've said all along, a lot of the issues the iterative model is meant to address could be solved by simply returning to a strict 5 year life cycle, instead of 7-8 years like 360/PS3. That would make new consoles due in 2018, just around a year after supposed Scorpio/Neo anyway.

 

[liolio]

If it's aimed as an XB1 replacement or new system... then yes.

If it's aimed as an additional platform sku, a high-end sku, for a smaller sector, those diehard gamers (i.e. those who would purchase a $150 joypad), ... then no.

My only question is: How can MS combat a possible 60 million PS4 install base by the time Scorpio launches, with the potential of Sony releasing Neo+ or even Neo having the capability of being upgradable? A very uphill battle...

Another interesting point is leaving the fans of the brand aside one might seriously wonder about what would be the general audience perception of the brand if MSFT pulls out a second XBox in three generations. Ok the new Xbox should be backward compatible yet it is not that great it just slightly ease the pill... Add that the growing list of platforms MSFT has abandoned lately, the issue could be broader than just customers aka both investors and publishers alike could legitimately show some concerns.