Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[Rangers]

Its relative success should come down to price.

Can they hit $399 with it?

Underrated key question IMO. I mentioned trying to convince my brother to buy a PS4 the other day. He said he wants to, but "how much are those, still like 400 right?". I said you can probably get a OG PS4 for 250 right now.

I guess it suddenly hit me if these iterative consoles are going to be hamstrung to playing the same games, it is kind of hard to justify 400.

I guess it might be easier for Scorpio to justify itself to potential purchasers in the Xbox ecosystem since XBO versions are often pretty weak anwyway in a way PS4 aren't, if that makes any sense. But, hitting 399 is pretty important IMO, hope MS gets that.

 

[KirkSi]

I'm in a bit of a quandary here. Last E3 MS were as leaky as a colander. We got to learn a lot early, but it ruined the show as we pretty much already knew it all. I really want to know more about Scorpio hardware, but I want MS to have a good E3 show. Overall I hope that they've tightened the security a bit. Moving the E3 show forwards a day to give them distance to Sony I'm hoping suggests they think they've got a special show and they want the media to be focused on it for a complete day.

I think they should focus on the hardware first and then go straight into the games. Tell us the amazing things Scoprio will do but don't try to show them off too soon. Trying to show 4K and HDR when most people are watching on a low quality non-HDR stream just doesn't work. Let the media have a good hands on with the Scorpio and games after the conference and let them give us their impressions. If the whole gaming media is banging on about how amazing 4K HDR Scorpio games look like in person we'll believe it. Try to show it to us when we're watching on 1080p non-HDR TVs and people won't.

With respect to hardware I'd read a rumour that Scorpio will have 12GB of GDDR5 RAM as well as 2GB of DDR3 for OS operations. I'm hoping this turns out to be true as it would be good for the devs to have access to as much of the fast RAM as possible for games. As to CPU and GPU, I'm hopeful that it has a Vega GPU and I think there might be a slight chance of a Zen CPU, but I think the greater chance is the Vega GPU.

Does Puma offer much more than Jaguar? My impression was that Puma is very similar to Jaguar, seems to have better power management so can hit higher clocks. With more gaming engines having DX12 support, and DX12s better usage of multi-core CPUs would a weak CPU be enough to drive a 6TF+ GPU? From what I can remember of the DX12 benchmarks it was the weak, multi-core CPUs that got the biggest benefit from DX12. My other question would be about the Sony API. Sony said they weren't going to support Vulkan. When the Pro specs were announced I thought the GPU was decent, but the small bump in CPU would let it down. Does the Sony API already have Vulkan-like multi-core CPU support? If it does then the CPU may not be such a limiter as people think. If it doesn't then do you think Sony will start to support Vulkan?

 

[mosen]

Microsoft is on the back foot, they need a bit more because they are already falling behind. Scorpio addresses some of this with better specs. I don't think these better specs will translate to the better graphics anyone is hoping for, for the same reason PS4pro isn't shattering the PS4 visually. Truth is; in the scope of multiplatform games the difference between Xb1 and PS4 is squat and so will the difference between the Pro and Scorpio. Going from a Xb1 to a Scorpio will obviously be a bigger step than going from PS4 to a Pro and this is where I expect to see the most sales: People migrating from a Xb1 to a Scorpio in given time. In regards to Sony vs Microsoft, I don't see either console making much difference. The biggest hope I see is for Microsoft to somehow "win" NA which they might just achieve on paper if enough people upgrade from Xb1 to Scorpio...

But who said that Scorpio is all about more power? More power is only a tool for bigger goal than launching a Mid-Generation upgrade. Scorpio is a long term strategy for MS, not only in response to console industry in the coming years (mainly PS4/Pro) but also PS5 and PC (Windows 10 Store/UWP) in the future.

Sony itself can't rely too much on PS4/Pro more than 3-4 years from now. Scorpio main advantage for Microsoft will become more apparent when it convert to the main target for publishers at 300$-250$ price point in 2019-2020. If Microsoft picked the right specs for Scorpio (which I think they did) it will be powerful enough to run PS5 and XB5 (if we consider Scorpio as Xbox 4) games at lower settings without much trouble for developers.

Also Scorpio can help Microsoft to force developers to make their games for UWP and maybe convince them to sell their games on Windows 10 Store alongside other storefronts.

 

[mpg1]

I think more so than even a PS4 Pro sales/price drop the bigger potential threat to Scorpio sales (initially) is going to be super cheap PS4/Xbox One's...

Recently here in Canada you could get an uncharted PS4 bundle on sale for $299....similar with Xbox One S. By this holiday I wouldn't be surprised to see a $250 bundle. Now consider if Scorpio is $399 US ($499 Canadian) then that would be double the price.

 

[Jay]

I think more so than even a PS4 Pro sales/price drop the bigger potential threat to Scorpio sales (initially) is going to be super cheap PS4/Xbox One's...

Recently here in Canada you could get an uncharted PS4 bundle on sale for $299....similar with Xbox One S. By this holiday I wouldn't be surprised to see a $250 bundle. Now consider if Scorpio is $399 US ($499 Canadian) then that would be double the price.

If someone buys the x1s or ps4 because it's cheap, they probably wouldn't have been the type of person that ms is aiming the Scorpio at.
I.e. lost sales to x1s because it's cheap is probably an added sale overall for them.
Did that make sense lol

 

[Phil]

Sony itself can't rely too much on PS4/Pro more than 3-4 years from now. Scorpio main advantage for Microsoft will become more apparent when it convert to the main target for publishers at 300$-250$ price point in 2019-2020. If Microsoft picked the right specs for Scorpio (which I think they did) it will be powerful enough to run PS5 and XB5 (if we consider Scorpio as Xbox 4) games at lower settings without much trouble for developers.

If and when a PS5 materializes, it will be quite a bit more powerful (by progress of technology) than Scorpio. Even if we assume that by the same 3 year span when a PS4 roughly doubled its computing power to the Pro, we can assume that in another 3 years after Scorpio, a possible PS5 will double the performance over Scorpio. But the key point would be, that it will be doing so at the same resolution (I don't expect another resolution increase). This means that any performance benefit will be entirely used to expand the gameplay and visual experience without being held back by having to support two the older generation. While I would expect a PS5 to support PS4 titles, I would not expect a PS4 to play PS5 games. The same can not be said if Microsoft is attempting to go for gradual upgrades while supporting a span of multiple models with differing performance.

And while we're on the topic, why would any PlayStation owner (the 55 million userbase that is expanding) decide to switch to a Scorpio after just having bought either a cheap PS4 or a PS4pro? Wouldn't they just rather upgrade to the next PlayStation iteration in given time? I'm also rather doubtful if the [console] market wants the PC model. Games can be scaled to a certain degree I suppose if we limited it to just visuals - however gameplay mechanics are more difficult to scale.

Again, I think this situation with these mid generation console upgrades is a unique situation, enabled by the fact that the market is trying to push 4K/UHD into our livingrooms and presents a golden opportunity to get some of that pie. Once 4K is here, I don't expect any future resolution increase (IMO 4K is already quite overkill for the typical livingroom) in the next 10 years. As I said, maybe the next thing will be VR (with the necessity to render two high resolution frames at a high framerate), but that too will be limited I think, as not every one wants to sit there and game with a VR headset strapped around the head.

 

[mosen]

If and when a PS5 materializes, it will be quite a bit more powerful (by progress of technology) than Scorpio. Even if we assume that by the same 3 year span when a PS4 roughly doubled its computing power to the Pro, we can assume that in another 3 years after Scorpio, a possible PS5 will double the performance over Scorpio. But the key point would be, that it will be doing so at the same resolution (I don't expect another resolution increase). This means that any performance benefit will be entirely used to expand the gameplay and visual experience without being held back by having to support two the older generation. While I would expect a PS5 to support PS4 titles, I would not expect a PS4 to play PS5 games. The same can not be said if Microsoft is attempting to go for gradual upgrades while supporting a span of multiple models with differing performance.

And while we're on the topic, why would any PlayStation owner (the 55 million userbase that is expanding) decide to switch to a Scorpio after just having bought either a cheap PS4 or a PS4pro? Wouldn't they just rather upgrade to the next PlayStation iteration in given time? I'm also rather doubtful if the [console] market wants the PC model. Games can be scaled to a certain degree I suppose if we limited it to just visuals - however gameplay mechanics are more difficult to scale.

You are assuming too much. Scorpio don't need to render games at PS5/XB5 resolution as XB1 don't need to render games at Scorpio resolution. Also you said this:

I don't think these better specs will translate to the better graphics anyone is hoping for, for the same reason PS4pro isn't shattering the PS4 visually. Truth is; in the scope of multiplatform games the difference between Xb1 and PS4 is squat and so will the difference between the Pro and Scorpio.

So you don't expect Scorpio's better specs (3-4 times better than PS4/XB1) translate to the better graphics that anyone hoping, and then you expect PS5/XB5 power advantage over Scorpio (2-3 times) translate to the better graphics that you hope? What kind of reasoning is that?

 

[Jay]

I think that what is lost is that when a new gen starts, for the first couple years there's a lot of cross gen games. Regardless if it's holding back the new gen or not.
It's just not financially viable to produce a game only for a new gen most of the time.

So, if ms goes the route I think they will, then they will leave it up to the studios to say what is the lowest platform support. Not all games need next gen or even scorpio performance, or can run on Scorpio at 900p dynamic etc.
If a game can only work on next gen, then that's for publishers to decide, if it's financially viable and when that is.

I think that ms has learned from the start of this gen that you have to be careful how you try to push the market.
Launching Scorpio with the message that all games are compatible is the correct thing to do, but by the time the next machine is due, people will have become more accustomed to multiple machines being out, and then they can leave it to the studios.

Keeping a ball rolling is different than, getting it to start to roll.

 

[Phil]

You are assuming too much. Scorpio don't need to render games at PS5/XB5 resolution as XB1 don't need to render games at Scorpio resolution. Also you said this:

Ey? Scorpio is targeting 4k/UHD. PS5 will target 4k/UHD too. There will not be another resolution increase.

So you don't expect Scorpio's better specs (3-4 times better than PS4/XB1) translate to the better graphics that anyone hoping, and then you expect PS5/XB5 power advantage over Scorpio (2-3 times) translate to the better graphics that you hope? What kind of reasoning is that?

Correct, because some/most of that performance increase is used to overcome the resolution increase. There is also a limit of what can be done, because you they have promised forwards as well backwards compatibility. This is not the same as when having a game that is designed to take full advantage of a single hardware (aka a cleansheet). E.g. A game designed specifically to take every advantage of Scorpio will trump any game that is designed to run on Xb1 and Scorpio.

 

[Jay]

Ey? Scorpio is targeting 4k/UHD. PS5 will target 4k/UHD too. There will not be another resolution increase.

there is no mandate, it can be whatever resolution the devs want, as far as we know there isn't even a minimum res.
ms has said that the devs can use the power however they see fit, it doesn't have to be for resolution.

Scorpio was designed to facilitate x1 games at 4k, that's the design goal.

 

[Phil]

We are dodging the topic here. Pretty much everything Microsoft has said so far is "we talked to devs and asked them what they needed to accomplish true native 4k and 6TF is what they told us" in regards to PS4pro "only" having 4TF. So now all this talk was for fun and they will be pushing 1080p after all when people are outthere buying 4k sets? I think not. Even if they go for some fancy resolution somewhere in between, the fact of the matter is that they want to check that 4k box on some level, especially when Sony is outthere milking that market.

http://www.techradar.com/news/project-scorpio-will-definitely-do-native-4k-gaming-says-xbox-exec

Microsoft's marketing team has previously suggested that all first-party titles being produced in the run up to Scorpio's release will have to push for a native 4K standard. Spencer's comments, though brief, still maintain this aim.

http://www.usgamer.net/articles/microsoft-says-xbox-scorpio-will-offer-native-true-4k

"We're building a great platform. We're building the most powerful console ever made," Penello told Eurogamer. "We had to pick a number. Why did you choose six teraflops? Why did you choose 320Gb/s in memory bandwidth? What's the point of those numbers? The point of those numbers was to deliver Xbox One-quality games in 4K. That's the point of those numbers."

"I think there are a lot of caveats they're giving customers right now around 4K," said Penello. "They're talking about checkerboard rendering and up-scaling and things like that. There are just a lot of asterisks in their marketing around 4K, which is interesting because when we thought about what spec we wanted for Scorpio, we were very clear we wanted developers to take their Xbox One engines and render them in native, true 4K. That was why we picked the number, that's why we have the memory bandwidth we have, that's why we have the teraflops we have, because it's what we heard from game developers was required to achieve native 4K."

Sure, since then some time has passed and now I have seen the same execs be a bit more careful with their wording. Now it's suddenly, "oh, we will leave it up to the developers to decide". We will see, though I am pretty much betting that most games will either be 4K or close to it to appeal to all these people buying 4k sets and having a compelling argument for them to get a Scorpio over the checkerboard rendered games on PS4pro.

 

[Jay]

We are dodging the topic here. Pretty much everything Microsoft has said so far is "we talked to devs and asked them what they needed to accomplish true native 4k and 6TF is what they told us" in regards to PS4pro "only" having 4TF. So now all this talk was for fun and they will be pushing 1080p after all when people are outthere buying 4k sets? I think not. Even if they go for some fancy resolution somewhere in between, the fact of the matter is that they want to check that 4k box on some level, especially when Sony is outthere milking that market.

http://www.techradar.com/news/project-scorpio-will-definitely-do-native-4k-gaming-says-xbox-exec



http://www.usgamer.net/articles/microsoft-says-xbox-scorpio-will-offer-native-true-4k





Sure, since then some time has passed and now I have seen the same execs be a bit more careful with their wording. Now it's suddenly, "oh, we will leave it up to the developers to decide". We will see, though I am pretty much betting that most games will either be 4K or close to it to appeal to all these people buying 4k sets and having a compelling argument for them to get a Scorpio over the checkerboard rendered games on PS4pro.

Even in the quotes you give it says it, first party games are pushing for 4k.

Also in your quotes:
They talked to dev's to see what they needed to hit 4k.

It was the design goal for the Scorpio. When your making a machine you have to have a design goal and target.

But they have already said multiple times it's not mandated that devs have to render at true/native 4k.
It's up to devs how they use the power regardless what the design goal was.

 

[function]

Sure, since then some time has passed and now I have seen the same execs be a bit more careful with their wording. Now it's suddenly, "oh, we will leave it up to the developers to decide".

It's been up to developers since the time of the Scorpio reveal. Well, that's since the public have known. Developers would have known before then.

Even MS have acknowledged that there are developers who want to do things other than just shoot for 4K.

 

[mosen]

I think that what is lost is that when a new gen starts, for the first couple years there's a lot of cross gen games. Regardless if it's holding back the new gen or not.
It's just not financially viable to produce a game only for a new gen most of the time.

So, if ms goes the route I think they will, then they will leave it up to the studios to say what is the lowest platform support. Not all games need next gen or even scorpio performance, or can run on Scorpio at 900p dynamic etc.
If a game can only work on next gen, then that's for publishers to decide, if it's financially viable and when that is.

I think that ms has learned from the start of this gen that you have to be careful how you try to push the market.
Launching Scorpio with the message that all games are compatible is the correct thing to do, but by the time the next machine is due, people will have become more accustomed to multiple machines being out, and then they can leave it to the studios.

Keeping a ball rolling is different than, getting it to start to roll.

That's exactly what I think they are going to do. They will eventually let developers to do what is best for them.

Ey? Scorpio is targeting 4k/UHD. PS5 will target 4k/UHD too. There will not be another resolution increase.



Correct, because some/most of that performance increase is used to overcome the resolution increase. There is also a limit of what can be done, because you they have promised forwards as well backwards compatibility. This is not the same as when having a game that is designed to take full advantage of a single hardware (aka a cleansheet). E.g. A game designed specifically to take every advantage of Scorpio will trump any game that is designed to run on Xb1 and Scorpio.

Scorpio is a console capable of rendering games at 4K but that's not mandatory. It has noting to do with resolution increase. Right now developer can chose the right combination of resolution and effects/techniques that they need in their games and this won't change in future when PS5/XB5 are going to launch.

 

[MrFox]

Sounds like a disconnect between PR and actual development decisions. If MS have an equivalent hardware helper for checkerboard (or frame interpolation, reuse of previous frame data, or whatever), why would devs use raw 4K? If they can use less GPU for the same image quality, then they'd have additional power left for something people can actually see.

 

[iroboto]

Sure, since then some time has passed and now I have seen the same execs be a bit more careful with their wording. Now it's suddenly, "oh, we will leave it up to the developers to decide".

Uhh. Like 2 days after reveal this was clarified. I wouldn't exactly say some time.
https://www.vg247.com/2016/06/15/4k-games-wont-be-mandatory-on-xbox-project-scorpio/

 

[iroboto]

Sounds like a disconnect between PR and actual development decisions. If MS have an equivalent hardware helper for checkerboard (or frame interpolation, reuse of previous frame data, or whatever), why would devs use raw 4K? If they can use less GPU for the same image quality, then they'd have additional power left for something people can actually see.

Its a choice.
Not all projects/games are capable of having their graphics ramp up in quality, either due to time or budget constraint. 343i recently admitted at DICE that the only reason split screen wasn't there was that they didn't have the time for it. Or at least it wasn't a priority for them to have it for shipping. Shit happens, as many developers will say, you only have finite time and resources. For games like that, it's easier to bump the resolution to 4K. For games that can take advantage they will.

This is the only thing that makes the most sense, for both mid-gen refreshes.

 

[Jay]

Sounds like a disconnect between PR and actual development decisions. If MS have an equivalent hardware helper for checkerboard (or frame interpolation, reuse of previous frame data, or whatever), why would devs use raw 4K? If they can use less GPU for the same image quality, then they'd have additional power left for something people can actually see.

Not necessarily, as checkerboarding doesn't sound as good as native 4k.
And checkerboarding isn't always going to be the same quality. Especially if you blow the still image up by 1000% ;-)

edit - wonder how much overhead there is to do checkerboarding without the type of hardware assist that's in 4pro

 

[Phil]

Even in the quotes you give it says it, first party games are pushing for 4k.

One quote does not clarify the other. So lets just agree to this:

1st party games are pushing for native 4k (directly from the horses mouth).
All others have some scope of margin. We don't know however if this means they can target 1080p or if it will have to be something higher.

Thinking as a console vendor, I personally think ticking the 4k box in some way is more important than going for better visuals at 1080p. Why? Because historically, the "better graphics" hasn't really converted into better sales. It's hard to compare games because it's always a apple/orange comparison. Some games are more complex and thus less visually striking, other games are more simple but look more impressive. Multi platform games allow for more of an apples/apples comparison, but unless you are running the games side by side (or maybe even then), differences are less striking and obvious. Just see the difference between PS4 and PS4pro for that. So if I was Microsoft, I would mandate higher res than 1440p in order to at least tick that 4K box. I'm fairly confident, when Scorpio launches, its games will be pushing at least the same resolution as what the same game is doing on PS4pro.

No one has addressed the issue though how a 6TF console will be able to overcome the handicap of having to ensure the same games run on the base model. Again; yes the games will look better. The question is how much of an advantage a developer who has to support both consoles by being forwards and backwards-compatible can get out of the more powerful hardware.

 

[iroboto]

1st party games are pushing for native 4k (directly from the horses mouth).

Only Scorpio launch titles have been dedicated to this, not even sure today how many titles that would be (I assume to prove a point)

No one has addressed the issue though how a 6TF console will be able to overcome the handicap of having to ensure the same games run on the base model. Again; yes the games will look better. The question is how much of an advantage a developer who has to support both consoles by being forwards and backwards-compatible can get out of the more powerful hardware.

Once again, if it's graphical scaling, I've proven repeatedly that developers know how to scale their graphics extremely high.

EVIDENCE:
Doom at Nightmare
PC SPECS:
GPU: SLI GTX 980 ti
CPU i7: 6700k
16 GB RAM DDR4

Doom at Low:
PC Specs:
Processor: Intel Core i3 4010U @ 1,7 Ghz
RAM: 6GB
Graphics: AMD Radeon HD 8500M 2GB VRAM
OS: Windows 10 x64 Build 14393

And for shits and giggles, Doom on PS4 and XBO

So really guys, lets keep things in perspective here.