Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[mpg1]

The only relevant markets for MS are the English speaking world, from both a volume and a margin perspective. Thus the other markets are third or fourth order considerations at best.

Yeah but that's apprx 450 million people....which tend to have incomes as well as high consumption patterns...especially the U.S. Which I think explains Xbox's high software-attachment ratio.

Not a bad market to be in. Problem is Microsoft didn't dominate it like they did with 360.

 

[Jay]

some crazy conversations going on.
I've not seen anybody claim Scorpio is going to sell soo much to overtake ps4 etc, but it seems that people seemed to think, people think or claiming that. So are arguing a point no one is actually making from what I can see.
x1's is the mainstream machine, that is where the majority of the sales will come from (for better, or for worse)

Scorpio is a premium device for a subset of the market.
could it surprise and sell bucket loads on release, maybe but I've not seen anyone claim that.
mainstream device isn't the only device that can make sense.
it makes sense for people that want that premium experience from that platform, more visible the difference the better, but for some I'm sure just knowing they have the best is good enough.
it makes sense for Ms and Sony for many reasons. How successful it all ends up in the long run, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[chris1515]

some crazy conversations going on.
I've not seen anybody claim Scorpio is going to sell soo much to overtake ps4 etc, but it seems that people seemed to think, people think or claiming that. So are arguing a point no one is actually making from what I can see.
x1's is the mainstream machine, that is where the majority of the sales will come from (for better, or for worse)

Scorpio is a premium device for a subset of the market.
could it surprise and sell bucket loads on release, maybe but I've not seen anyone claim that.
mainstream device isn't the only device that can make sense.
it makes sense for people that want that premium experience from that platform, more visible the difference the better, but for some I'm sure just knowing they have the best is good enough.
it makes sense for Ms and Sony for many reasons. How successful it all ends up in the long run, we'll have to wait and see.

Sorry but when someone use the fact than PS4 sold double than Xbox One and think one of the big problem is power...

I think MS will do all in with Scorpio and the marketing will be huge in US maybe as huge as the Xbox One launch...

This winter the Xbox One marketing was bigger than PS4 marketing in US...

And with a strong brand MS hope to reverse the situation...

 

[Phil]

I've not seen anybody claim Scorpio is going to sell soo much to overtake ps4 etc, but it seems that people seemed to think, people think or claiming that. So are arguing a point no one is actually making from what I can see.

Jay, I apologize if your message was directed at me. Sometimes, points can be muddled a bit when discussing with multiple members at the same time. chris1515 hit it on the nail though (post above mine) in that it was Ranger who was making the correlation between sales and performance. The only point I would be able to agree with to a degree is that IMO Xbox consumers have been more sensitive where the relative performance of the hardware is concerned. Us PS owners have been used to having 'the weaker' hardware for years - when the PS was out, there was a N64 (though I honestly preferred the razor sharp pixels over the blurry mess), when the PS2 was out, the Xbox followed. The PS3 was the big exception - at least on paper, but it came out late and was slaughtered in NA (relatively speaking) due to price and being late but ensured Blurays future. Given that the Xbox seems to have attracted a large portion of ex PC gamers (possibly due to it being from Microsoft, the focus on shooters and the fact that they a highly anticipated PC game in Halo away from that market), I do think there is a larger focus on technical ability of the hardware among its userbase among some who may have jumped to the PS4 as a result due to the performance difference.

Anyway, I think these mid-generation-consoles are nothing more than a great way to shaft us gamers with some checkbox features. Look at this way; If there was no technical progress, why would we upgrade? Or to make the argument a bit more complex; If we didn't have 4k/UHD, there would be little incentive to buy new TV sets and little incentive to replace Bluray with something else (BlurayUHD). It's already amazing that 4k/UHD is coming to our homes, considering cinemas are not running a higher resolution at a much bigger screen. But it is, and the best way to use that momentum and get a piece of that pie is to offer a console that ticks that "4k/UHD" box. Both the Pro and Scorpio do that. It allows Sony and Microsoft to lower the price on the base model (which they'd have to eventually), but capture more income by offering a more premium product at a higher price. People are faced with getting the cheapest option or the premium version to go with the new premium TV they've just bought. Win/Win.

It's not about splitting the market, it's about being there and capturing some of it, without prematurely ending this generation of consoles while it's heading into its most lucrative stages.

Microsoft is on the back foot, they need a bit more because they are already falling behind. Scorpio addresses some of this with better specs. I don't think these better specs will translate to the better graphics anyone is hoping for, for the same reason PS4pro isn't shattering the PS4 visually. Truth is; in the scope of multiplatform games the difference between Xb1 and PS4 is squat and so will the difference between the Pro and Scorpio. Going from a Xb1 to a Scorpio will obviously be a bigger step than going from PS4 to a Pro and this is where I expect to see the most sales: People migrating from a Xb1 to a Scorpio in given time. In regards to Sony vs Microsoft, I don't see either console making much difference. The biggest hope I see is for Microsoft to somehow "win" NA which they might just achieve on paper if enough people upgrade from Xb1 to Scorpio...

 

[chris1515]

Xbix 360 had the best console sales of alltime in US better than PS2 and Wii, this is why I speak of brand power... If Sony have done DRM things and launch the PS4 with a camera at 499 dollars the PS4 sales would probably be similar to the Wii U in US...

But the Xbox brand is stronger and they aren't far of the PS4/PS4 Pro...

 

[wco81]

Its relative success should come down to price.

Can they hit $399 with it?

 

[iroboto]

Microsoft is on the back foot, they need a bit more because they are already falling behind. Scorpio addresses some of this with better specs. I don't think these better specs will translate to the better graphics anyone is hoping for, for the same reason PS4pro isn't shattering the PS4 visually. Truth is; in the scope of multiplatform games the difference between Xb1 and PS4 is squat and so will the difference between the Pro and Scorpio. Going from a Xb1 to a Scorpio will obviously be a bigger step than going from PS4 to a Pro and this is where I expect to see the most sales: People migrating from a Xb1 to a Scorpio in given time. In regards to Sony vs Microsoft, I don't see either console making much difference. The biggest hope I see is for Microsoft to somehow "win" NA which they might just achieve on paper if enough people upgrade from Xb1 to Scorpio...

This is a conservative and well defensible position, but I would say far from 'locked'.
Yourself and others can easily muster up this defense, and it will be the prime defense used in any business case against Scorpio. But they still 'approved' Scorpio anyway.

If MS fails to address your argument they've lost touch with their consumer base, that or, they have data backing other points we cannot see. But I wouldn't count out MS yet, a year of observation, means a year of taking the right steps to change.

 

[chris1515]

This is a conservative and well defensible position, but I would say far from 'locked'.
Yourself and others can easily muster up this defense, and it will be the prime defense used in any business case against Scorpio. But they still 'approved' Scorpio anyway.

If MS fails to address your argument they've lost touch with their consumer base, that or, they have data backing other points we cannot see. But I wouldn't count out MS yet, a year of observation, means a year of taking the right steps to change.

Out of the limited quantity the PS4 Pro marketing was weak... And I don't count MS out in US the situation can change MS needs to do a good marketing campaign for Scorpio and Xbox One S Next fall and the cards can turn...

They have the brand power... The Xbox One launch campaign was bigger than the PS4 launch campaign in Spain but no brand power and they lost...

Imo if Sony and MS do the right thing with exactly the same hardware launch at the same price and at nearly the same moment in North America, Microsoft won the generation because the Xbox brand is ahead of Playstation brand in North America...

On UK it would be different don't know which brand would win and in the rest of the world Playstation brand would win...

 

[Jay]

Sorry but when someone use the fact than PS4 sold double than Xbox One and think one of the big problem is power...

ok, one person said that, always going to get outlayers lol

I think MS will do all in with Scorpio and the marketing will be huge in US maybe as huge as the Xbox One launch...

This winter the Xbox One marketing was bigger than PS4 marketing in US...

And with a strong brand MS hope to reverse the situation...

there's a difference between marketing, and pushing it than expecting it to be a big seller compared to mainstream machines.
that's where it can have other benefits to the company than simple market share and sales come in.
like, halo affect, how many gamers buy titan x's? yet there still made.
Making your brand be front and centre even if that's not the device that will be selling the most.

ms has many things they need to try and get right at e3, demoing hdr on live stream probably would be a mistake unless they do the faking it approach for example, and would the "it's faked" be louder than "it looks so much better", is a simple example.

 

[Phil]

This is a conservative and well defensible position, but I would say far from 'locked'.
Yourself and others can easily muster up this defense, and it will be the prime defense used in any business case against Scorpio. But they still 'approved' Scorpio anyway.

If MS fails to address your argument they've lost touch with their consumer base, that or, they have data backing other points we cannot see. But I wouldn't count out MS yet, a year of observation, means a year of taking the right steps to change.

I guess we will see. We might all be surprised.

Personally, i think Microsoft is stuck in a bit of problem. They are doing quite well in the US, but have completely lost it pretty much everywhere else. The market of 25M+ is too big to disband it. They are late. When Sony revealed Neo, they should have already been there, not a year later. They must lead, not follow.

For their sake, i hope they have something special up their sleeve. Something that will cause us gamers to awe and geek over. Something as big as a generational shift. Is this even possible given the constraints? Is 6TF enough? Enough considering the resolution increase to 4k? Possible considering that developers will have to target and support both AND the PS4 and PS4pro too at the same time? And is Microsoft 1st party good enough to offer the exclusives and not be hindered by what multiplatform devs are?

Its all a matter of perspective i suppose. My gut feeling is telling me these consoles are just a plus, a .5, a premium product of the same. The PS4pro is just that. It cant be more, not if you are using the performance benefit to push 4 times more pixels. Will Scorpio be in light of all these technical and economic restraints? That is the question....

If i were MS, i would bundle Scorpio with VR in a box at the most aggressive price ever (same as the Pro) and tout it as the definitiv VR experience at 2 times 1080p60 for each eye (or 4k each if possible). Throw in Bluray UHD, focus on VR games that are exclusive to Scorpio while offering the entire existing game library at an upgraded 4k experience.

IMHO VR could be the next big thing if done right. Question is, if the market is ready for it and how expensive it is if you have to buy the VR add on for it, hence why i'd bundle it in the box if i were them...

 

[MrFox]

At E3 I think they will take as much time talking about Scorpio's advantage over PS4 Pro, and show the games. Because talking about either HDR or VR will be a PR nightmare. HDR, and VR, and 4K should be checklist items.

Bad:
Scorpio brings your HDR! (you mean like 60 million of original PS4 and Pro?)
Scorpio brings your VR! (also like 60 million of original PS4 and Pro?)
It's true 4K! (like the PS4 Pro?)

Good:
It's 6 TF, 12GB, most powerful shit you ever seen (okay, now we're talking!)
Frame interpolation hardware instead of checkerboard (yay! secret sauce against secret sauce!)
UHD bluray is the format of the future (I love physical media!)
$399 (more flops per dollar than Pro, the crowd goes wild!)
ForzaGearsHalo crossover in VR! Footage of a Mgalekgolo in a Koenigsegg Regera shooting at Marcus on the Nurburgring... (I love all these things!)

 

[chris1515]

I guess we will see. We might all be surprised.

Personally, i think Microsoft is stuck in a bit of problem. They are doing quite well in the US, but have completely lost it pretty much everywhere else. The market of 25M+ is too big to disband it. They are late. When Sony revealed Neo, they should have already been there, not a year later. They must lead, not follow.

For their sake, i hope they have something special up their sleeve. Something that will cause us gamers to awe and geek over. Something as big as a generational shift. Is this even possible given the constraints? Is 6TF enough? Enough considering the resolution increase to 4k? Possible considering that developers will have to target and support both AND the PS4 and PS4pro too at the same time? And is Microsoft 1st party good enough to offer the exclusives and not be hindered by what multiplatform devs are?

Its all a matter of perspective i suppose. My gut feeling is telling me these consoles are just a plus, a .5, a premium product of the same. The PS4pro is just that. It cant be more, not if you are using the performance benefit to push 4 times more pixels. Will Scorpio be in light of all these technical and economic restraints? That is the question....

If i were MS, i would bundle Scorpio with VR in a box at the most aggressive price ever (same as the Pro) and tout it as the definitiv VR experience at 2 times 1080p60 for each eye (or 4k each if possible). Throw in Bluray UHD, focus on VR games that are exclusive to Scorpio while offering the entire existing game library at an upgraded 4k experience.

IMHO VR could be the next big thing if done right. Question is, if the market is ready for it and how expensive it is if you have to buy the VR add on for it, hence why i'd bundle it in the box if i were them...

Imo MS executives don't think Scorpio will help them out of North America and maybe UK but they need to win at home at least...

When the leader has at least 70% market share probably more now, it is impossible to do anything...

Edit: If they launch a revolutionary Augmented reality accessory for a consumer friendly price with a good marketing it could have turn the market but with a more powerful console than PS4 Pro... It is not a game changer..

 

[zupallinere]

If i were MS, i would bundle Scorpio with VR in a box at the most aggressive price ever (same as the Pro) and tout it as the definitiv VR experience at 2 times 1080p60 for each eye (or 4k each if possible). Throw in Bluray UHD, focus on VR games that are exclusive to Scorpio while offering the entire existing game library at an upgraded 4k experience.

4K each eye for $399 ?? I have to think just getting the Scorpio down to $399 will be worth it I don't imagine MS is interested is losing that much per console unless they made some incredible deals on OLED screens which may be in demand if the display of the Iphone 8 is rumors are true.

 

[Rangers]

I've not seen anybody claim Scorpio is going to sell soo much to overtake ps4 etc, but it seems that people seemed to think, people think or claiming that.

Worldwide I dont know, but if Scorpio doesn't push MS to at least consistently winning USA NPD I'd have to think that'd be a disappointment.

It's true 4K! (like the PS4 Pro?)

PS4 Pro isn't true 4k on many triple A titles that I've heard of. It's kind of like the 360/PS3 with 1080P, it exists but it's kind of a corner case.

Of course the numbers show the same is likely to be the case on Scorpio, but true 4K should be a bit more within it's reach. A waste though, at these high resolutions, so yeah in general I wouldn't like to see a lot of true 4k on Scorpio as it'd be a waste of resources.

If i were MS, i would bundle Scorpio with VR in a box at the most aggressive price ever (same as the Pro) and tout it as the definitiv VR experience at 2 times 1080p60 for each eye (or 4k each if possible). Throw in Bluray UHD, focus on VR games that are exclusive to Scorpio while offering the entire existing game library at an upgraded 4k experience.

It's nice to want things...a Scorpio at 399 with VR headset would be a pipe dream. We will be lucky to get a barebones no-VR SKU for 399. Although I disagree with your espoused strategy anyway.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Got a question, why are some people talking about current generation (PS4/XBO) sales in the mid generation thread? I've been seeing a long conversation in here about sales of PS4/XBO that has no relevance to mid-gen consoles, wouldn't that be more appropriate in the All Purpose sales thread?

It makes it more difficult for me to keep up since I don't have a lot of time usually to go through threads. Having to weed out which posts are relevant and which aren't just means I can make it through even less threads or sometimes end up with no time to reply or add a post.

Regards,
SB

 

[Phil]

Why wouldnt it be relevant? The Pro's success it somewhat linked to the PS4 just as Scorpio will be of the XB1...

 

[MrFox]

Got a question, why are some people talking about current generation (PS4/XBO) sales in the mid generation thread? I've been seeing a long conversation in here about sales of PS4/XBO that has no relevance to mid-gen consoles, wouldn't that be more appropriate in the All Purpose sales thread?

It makes it more difficult for me to keep up since I don't have a lot of time usually to go through threads. Having to weed out which posts are relevant and which aren't just means I can make it through even less threads or sometimes end up with no time to reply or add a post.

Regards,
SB

Why does it matter since you're also reading and posting in the sales thread? You read both anyway.

There's an interesting discussion to be had about how the mid-gen will change the balance of userbase. Not sure it should go in the sales thread, or here, or spin.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Why does it matter since you're also reading and posting in the sales thread? You read both anyway.

There's an interesting discussion to be had about how the mid-gen will change the balance of userbase. Not sure it should go in the sales thread, or here, or spin.

I read the sales thread about once every 4 or 5 days usually. I'd like to read this one every day, but I often don't have the opportunity due to the volume of posts. Having irrelevant sales talk here just makes that worse.

On most days I usually only have time to catch up on 1-3 threads. Sometimes, I'll have a large block of time where I can just sit and read threads (like the sales threads).

Regards,
SB

 

[chris1515]

And another things Scorpio sales will be counted into current generation sales... Mid generation aren't a new generation...

It was confirmed by NPD guy in a GAF thread...

For MS they will try to take the lead where they can in US...

 

[BRiT]

Can we please stop having Sales conversions in this thread when that discussion clearly belongs to the existing thread: https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/...umors-and-sales-anecdotes-2017-edition.59833/

Thank you!