All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2018 Edition]
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With a 1TB SSD because by then flash will be dirt cheap.Some are even saying $50 PS4s! Well $100 with controller.
To be fair the PS3 went from a $800 BOM down to $200 rather quickly (assuming the last sku BOM ended around that). The PS4 will struggle to drop below $150 at best, because hdd, odd and power supply are already close to the lowest possible from launch, and silicon doesn't drop as fast as it did in 2006. Memory is really not dropping much either. There's little room left once it gets below $200.
Also sony haven't shown a willingness to drop much below their cost, and are even shy about holiday sales. Maybe by the time PS5 comes out, they will focus on selling the PS5.
djskribbles
Legend
Right, I don't think the PS3 dropped below $270 officially. Sub-$200 (as proven by black friday this year) is the magic number.
The PS4 is still officially 299... they still have a good amount of room with pricing to extend the life of the system.
Surprising that it's selling so well at this price, considering we're a little over 4 years in and it has ~74M in sales.
If they don't drop the price this year, I think they will be down a bit, even with heavy hitters like God of War, Spider-Man and third-party games like RDR2. I fully expect at least a $50 drop though.
Yeah I don't think it will ever drop below 199 officially. I think the last PS4 SKU will be 199 with a bundled game... maybe TLoU2 in 2020.With a 1TB SSD because by then flash will be dirt cheap.
To be fair the PS3 went from a $800 BOM down to $200 rather quickly (assuming the last sku BOM ended around that). The PS4 will struggle to drop below $150 at best, because hdd, odd and power supply are already close to the lowest possible from launch, and silicon doesn't drop as fast as it did in 2006. Memory is really not dropping much either. There's little room left once it gets below $200.
Also sony haven't shown a willingness to drop much below their cost, and are even shy about holiday sales. Maybe by the time PS5 comes out, they will focus on selling the PS5.
Many caveats...
256GB is barely enough for the OS plus maybe three games, specially for microsoft which have only 350GB left from a 500 hdd. So 512 is the minimum.
Dramxchange contract prices for 512GB is much more expensive than a 1TB hdd ($35) so it's not yet a cost reduction solution.
A BR drive is less than $20 and allows used games, which is important to late-gen gamers waiting for a very low cost console.
A BR-less sku with ssd is in fact a luxury item.
256GB is barely enough for the OS plus maybe three games, specially for microsoft which have only 350GB left from a 500 hdd. So 512 is the minimum.
Dramxchange contract prices for 512GB is much more expensive than a 1TB hdd ($35) so it's not yet a cost reduction solution.
A BR drive is less than $20 and allows used games, which is important to late-gen gamers waiting for a very low cost console.
A BR-less sku with ssd is in fact a luxury item.
Three full sized games is enough for casuals, and more storage is accessible via USB. Plus, console could still have empty HDD slot [like PS3 Superslim].
PS3 Superslim also launched with 250gb, and large games on that console are the same size like on PS4 [Uncharted 3 was almost 50GB, and many others were ~40GB].
PS3 Superslim also launched with 250gb, and large games on that console are the same size like on PS4 [Uncharted 3 was almost 50GB, and many others were ~40GB].
Contract price break-even cost is a 128GB flash instead of a 1TB hdd. So why would they use flash at all and then force the gamer to add more external storage?
The ps3 was playing off the disc, and the average game size was smaller. Vast majority of ps3 gamers were physical. Ps4 needs full install regardless. Anything other than an hdd is either much more expensive or inferior in capacity and unusable.
And DD on ps3, which is much more expensive than used games discs towards the end of the generation, is definitely a luxury.
XBX sales seem to be slumping, #82 on Amazon hourly. I always figured they would have a tough time selling another $500 console after they sold to the die hard fans. I wonder what the take away will be for next gen, more power and cost or lower power and lower cost. Switch says the former.
It's an hourly list and isn't reliably representative of longer term trends. The X outsold the Pro for Feb on Amazon after being outsold by the Pro in Jan. It's usually the second best selling Xbox sku on Amazon on most lists outside of the all of 2018 list where it is currently the best selling Xbox sku.
Given its price and niche it's holding well in comparison to the overall Xbox platform.
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https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2018-03-07-nintendo-expected-to-overtake-microsoft-in-2018
Microsoft knowing this, I believe they will introduce the next Xbox successor quite earlier than expected, maybe before the next generation of PlayStation.
Microsoft knowing this, I believe they will introduce the next Xbox successor quite earlier than expected, maybe before the next generation of PlayStation.
No chance. Since Xbox X just came out.
Also you cant get significantly more power than Xbox X reasonably priced anytime soon. It's still a $499 console!
So, guess what a "next gen" 499 console would look like...
I am also wondering what effect the botcoin/RAM crunch is going to have on next gen plans. This seems like the worst time to launch a new console anytime soon. Just like it would be the worst time to build a pc!
In terms of install base Switch wont catch Xbox in the USA (were we have recorded numbers) anytime soon, where Xbox One is over 20 million sold. In Jan Switch gained just 35k for example? Effectively never if that sort of thing continues. Worldwide should also take upwards of 2-3 years at current trends.
Edit: Just looked and due to that weird November anomaly, over the holiday Xbox beat Switch in NPD by like >400,000... (+~600,000 in November, -~135k in December)
Edit2: I went down some NPD rabbit hole, since March 17 release through January 18 I have Switch at +1,042k over Xbox. However it's a bit misleading, most of that was launch month of March 2017 where Switch beat Xbox by ~650k. At the rate since then (~400k in 10 months) Switch will never overtake Xbox in USA.
Of course this is somewhat misleading as I often explain there's a core group of a few million core gamers that shifts very fast, and the larger background install base is not so relevant. Switch software sales can/have become significant very quickly. For the same reason I'd expect Xbox X is actually a pretty significant force in that same group despite a piddling install base.
To even expound about that worldwide, Switch evidently shipped 12.8m 2017. Xbox should be in the 8-10m range right now annually.
I'm not sure if Switch is expected to hit 20m annually like PS4?
Of course the article is about annual spend per company. Different metrics. Also even includes SNES Classic, 3DS etc for Nintendo. It seems reasonable. However they project a bit pessimistically for Xbox I think, projecting a small Xbox spend decline when I suspect Xbox X may cause a slight increase in 2018. We've seen that for January NPD.
Also you cant get significantly more power than Xbox X reasonably priced anytime soon. It's still a $499 console!
So, guess what a "next gen" 499 console would look like...
I am also wondering what effect the botcoin/RAM crunch is going to have on next gen plans. This seems like the worst time to launch a new console anytime soon. Just like it would be the worst time to build a pc!
In terms of install base Switch wont catch Xbox in the USA (were we have recorded numbers) anytime soon, where Xbox One is over 20 million sold. In Jan Switch gained just 35k for example? Effectively never if that sort of thing continues. Worldwide should also take upwards of 2-3 years at current trends.
Edit: Just looked and due to that weird November anomaly, over the holiday Xbox beat Switch in NPD by like >400,000... (+~600,000 in November, -~135k in December)
Edit2: I went down some NPD rabbit hole, since March 17 release through January 18 I have Switch at +1,042k over Xbox. However it's a bit misleading, most of that was launch month of March 2017 where Switch beat Xbox by ~650k. At the rate since then (~400k in 10 months) Switch will never overtake Xbox in USA.
Of course this is somewhat misleading as I often explain there's a core group of a few million core gamers that shifts very fast, and the larger background install base is not so relevant. Switch software sales can/have become significant very quickly. For the same reason I'd expect Xbox X is actually a pretty significant force in that same group despite a piddling install base.
To even expound about that worldwide, Switch evidently shipped 12.8m 2017. Xbox should be in the 8-10m range right now annually.
I'm not sure if Switch is expected to hit 20m annually like PS4?
Of course the article is about annual spend per company. Different metrics. Also even includes SNES Classic, 3DS etc for Nintendo. It seems reasonable. However they project a bit pessimistically for Xbox I think, projecting a small Xbox spend decline when I suspect Xbox X may cause a slight increase in 2018. We've seen that for January NPD.
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From the gamesindustry article: this perfectly summarizes the current situation, estimation of hardware, games and services :
So Xbox will decline the most because Xbox? As I said above, I disagree with that. I think Xbox could be somewhat up YoY due to Xbox X. It's up in hardware YoY for January NPD.
Or I suppose they looked at 2016-2017 trend (ASSUMING their past numbers are more based in hard data than guesstimates, though) and projected from there, PS4 might be gradually cresting that slope whereas they think Xbox is already on the other side.
Plus MS has shown their willingness lately to price the S very aggressively, as well.
Total spend would be worldwide, include accessories, online services, and include digital though, right? It would only be guesstimates anyway in that case.
Or I suppose they looked at 2016-2017 trend (ASSUMING their past numbers are more based in hard data than guesstimates, though) and projected from there, PS4 might be gradually cresting that slope whereas they think Xbox is already on the other side.
Plus MS has shown their willingness lately to price the S very aggressively, as well.
Total spend would be worldwide, include accessories, online services, and include digital though, right? It would only be guesstimates anyway in that case.
It is worlwide and the analysts have probably access to some numbers from GFK* or other retailer estimation. Last year Xbox numbers were lower than in 2016 in UK. From a gameindustry journalist tweet. And in continental Europe Xbox is not a success and lost ground compared to the 360.
Like I said before in continental Europe, the sales of Xbox One take a nose dive in 2017. This is why the trade in price of Xbox One in shop is lower than the PS4 trade in price all over continental Europe at least in France(my country) Micromania(Gamestop France), in Switzerland(I live there), Luxembourg, Italy and Germany, the only country where I go often in Europe. I can verify too in Portugal next week...
*GFK number and other european and rest of the world number are existing but they are not public....
UK top 20 software sales 2017 with selected digital percentages
https://www.resetera.com/threads/uk...-2017-now-with-digital-numbers-updated.26877/
Nice Destiny digital %, as expected.
Forza Horizon must be quite huge by now, Zhuge also said it sold about as much in 2016. So ~800k in UK alone. Should be 4-5 million now overall (was announced at 2.5 million for 2016), and that's on much smaller Xbox install base, so it's like a PS4 exclusive selling 8-10 million, or similar to Horizon Zero Dawn.
It isn't that surprising MS has reportedly turned Fable over to Playground, they're a hitmaker.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/uk...-2017-now-with-digital-numbers-updated.26877/
Nice Destiny digital %, as expected.
Forza Horizon must be quite huge by now, Zhuge also said it sold about as much in 2016. So ~800k in UK alone. Should be 4-5 million now overall (was announced at 2.5 million for 2016), and that's on much smaller Xbox install base, so it's like a PS4 exclusive selling 8-10 million, or similar to Horizon Zero Dawn.
It isn't that surprising MS has reportedly turned Fable over to Playground, they're a hitmaker.
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That's what I'm saying, it's kind of a hodgepodge of data, I dont know how much gfk reports of digital in each of the small EU countries, so on and so forth. I dont know how much data services "IHS" is subscribed too, either. NPD for example is very expensive AFAIK. $10,000's per month according to Neogaf/Era in the past. It may depend on the depth of data received as well.
It's difficult to say for sure how comprehensive IHS data is, and how much they are guesstimating. Especially with digital.
I know NPD reports a lot of USA digital data now, USA data is the easy one.
Also I dont know that trade in value is a direct sales indicator, even in USA (gamestop) Xbox trade in value is always significantly lower that I've seen. IMO because the base PS4 is the more powerful thus "more valuable" console to the public's eyes. But OTOH Xbox is not too far behind PS4 in actual sales in the USA (maybe 15% last I remember).
Edit Just checked Gamestop website trade in values, https://www.gamestop.com/trade#!/consoles it's difficult to direct compare with the myriad SKU's, but I checked white 500GB Xbox S, $80. 500GB PS4 Slim, $130. Xbox One X 1TB, $300 (!). PS4 Pro 1TB, $200.
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djskribbles
Legend
If an install base doubles, you can't expect software sales to double. Racing games in particular are pretty niche and usually only sell well in EUR; FH3 is no exception. It constantly charts in the UK but is no where to be seen elsewhere. That's not to say sales dropped off a cliff everywhere else, but the UK is the only country where we have proof that it is consistently performing well.
So with that said, I kinda doubt it sold 4-5M... maybe 3-4M, which is still very good, especially for an XB1 exclusive racing game.
So with that said, I kinda doubt it sold 4-5M... maybe 3-4M, which is still very good, especially for an XB1 exclusive racing game.
I only know for one country and one retailer Micromania (Gamestop) biggest physical french videogame retailer because I have a friend working there but he told me they decrease the value of the Xbox One because it is difficult to sold an used one and he said to me than compare to end of 2013, 2014,2015 and 2016 the demand for Xbox One in France took a nose dive in 2017 if it is the same thing in other retailer. For exemple we were one of the last country where the preorder of Xbox One X scorpio edition were sold out. It tooks 5 days in Micromania and they had 5000 Scorpio edition allocated and the console did not set sales on fire. Switch and PS4 were the hot items last fall...
http://www.micromania.fr/offre-remise-achat-ps4
A PS4 trade in price was 200 euros and the Xbox One was 130 euros(no matter the model...).
We have a pretty good guesstimate of NPD sales and the number in Japan. The estimation for Xbox One by most analyst is 35 millions end of 2017 and PS4 it was 73,6 millions consoles sold through coming from Sony itself... The difference of sales comes mostly from to Europe and rest of the world. Difference of sales between the two consoles end of 2017 was nearly 9 millions Japan and US combined. And UK is better than other european territory...
EDIT: No idea of 2018 sales
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