All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2018 Edition]

[DuckThor Evil]

https://ubistatic19-a.akamaihd.net/comsite_common/en-US/images/41ubisoft q3fy18 1202_tcm99-318995_tcm99-196733-32.pdf

Physical Sales. Distributors get 30% and Sony/MS/Nintendo take another 20% off the 70% collected by Ubisoft. In the end Ubisoft collects just 55% of that $60 dollar sale.

Digital Sales. Sony/MS just collects a distributor cut of 30% and Ubisoft gets to keep 70%.

$33 vs $42. By taking out the middleman. Ubisoft gets to collect 9 more dollars per unit while Sony and MS collects the other $9 from a digital sale.

Interesting info!

Few minor nitpicks/corrections though.

Physical sales:

Distributors get 25% not 30% as it actually says that in the slide. The 20% platform holders get is from the $60 price, not from the lower publisher revenue, so $60 turns to $45 at the distributor level and platform holder then takes $12 making the end amount for the publisher $33, which you already had at the end.

Digital sales:

The extra $15 that is freed from cutting the middle man nets the publisher an extra $9, total of $42 vs $33 from physical. The platform holder gets $6 extra, a total of $18 instead of $12 from the physical.

 

[chris1515]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ho...ld-through-7-6-million-units-worldwide.26280/

7,6 millions for Horizon Zero Dawn, good for an exclusive new franchise

 

[DieH@rd]

7,6 millions for Horizon Zero Dawn, good for an exclusive new franchise

"Good" is an understatement.

Horizon did better than what TLOU managed in its first year on PS3.
http://uk.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/the-last-of-us-sales-pass-7-million-with-new-dlc-coming

 

[Sigfried1977]

Just one million more and it'll be at one tenth of GTA5's lifetime sales

 

[MrFox]

If you list the successful story-driven originals from first party studios in the last few years, it's obvious sony is doing better than anybody else.

They keep investing in new story-driven franchises. Nintendo is mostly milking their existing universes. Not seeing MS doing much there, it's multiplayer investments.

So playstation slowly attracted a certain type of gamers over the years. Which in turn makes such games profitable because the user base and the brand are in sync.

Detroit is going to be a big test I think. Same for super weird games like Death Stranding. Probably more difficult to sell than TLOU or Awesome:Robot Dinos.

 

[Globalisateur]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ho...ld-through-7-6-million-units-worldwide.26280/

7,6 millions for Horizon Zero Dawn, good for an exclusive new franchise

With or without digital ?

 

[chris1515]

With or without digital ?

With digital

 

[AlNom]

Not seeing MS doing much there, it's multiplayer investments.

Well, you can get into a list war for games published over the years, but it does amount to a high number of duds for single player investments.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Nintendo is mostly milking their existing universes.

I think that's a little unfair. They may be using the same IP, but they keep creating new games around those IPs that are valuable in their own right.

 

[Globalisateur]

If you list the successful story-driven originals from first party studios in the last few years, it's obvious sony is doing better than anybody else.

They keep investing in new story-driven franchises. Nintendo is mostly milking their existing universes. Not seeing MS doing much there, it's multiplayer investments.

So playstation slowly attracted a certain type of gamers over the years. Which in turn makes such games profitable because the user base and the brand are in sync.

Detroit is going to be a big test I think. Same for super weird games like Death Stranding. Probably more difficult to sell than TLOU or Awesome:Robot Dinos.

Detroit is going to fail big. People want modern gameplay this gen, more than ever.

 

[chris1515]

Detroit is going to fail big. People want modern gameplay this gen, more than ever.

Don't know. They don't need big sales to be profitable. All the Quantic Dreams games were profitable and the cost of development for a game or other software in France is cheaper than US or UK...

EDIT: I think HZD will finish nearly 10 millions units sold limited...

 

[DieH@rd]

Detroit is going to fail big. People want modern gameplay this gen, more than ever.

I don't agree. Those kind of games have their audience, which is usually skewed toward casual gamers. Sony/QD have boasted that their adventure games are very profitable, even though they usually sell a lot immediately.

Few stats about QD:
- Heavy Rain has sold 5.3 million units
- Beyond has sold over 1M in first three months
- Budget for Heavy Rain was €16 million [+marketing]
- Budget for Beyond: Two Souls was ~€20 million [+marketing]
- Budget for Detroit: Become Human is around €30 million [+marketing]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/he...ome-human-dev-budget-about-€30-million.17001/

 

[Globalisateur]

I don't agree. Those kind of games have their audience, which is usually skewed toward casual gamers. Sony/QD have boasted that their adventure games are very profitable, even though they usually sell a lot immediately.

Few stats about QD:
- Heavy Rain has sold 5.3 million units
- Beyond has sold over 1M in first three months
- Budget for Heavy Rain was €16 million [+marketing]
- Budget for Beyond: Two Souls was ~€20 million [+marketing]
- Budget for Detroit: Become Human is around €30 million [+marketing]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/heavy-rain-has-sold-5-3-million-copies-detroit-become-human-dev-budget-about-€30-million.17001/

Well, Heavy Rain and Beyond were last gen games. If the game still as convoluted to play (like the 2 previous games), people won't buy it. Until Dawn is a similar game but at least the gameplay is not a pain in the ass and game is apparently enjoyable.

I finished Heavy rain but find the controls are extremely and uselessness complicated (alternate very quickly L2 - R2 to climb a wet slope ?) and the character controls like a tank. The time of contextual QTE is over.

And how much did Beyond sold LTD ? 1.5 millions-ish ? There is a clear trend: 5.3 -> 1.5 -> ?

 

[DrJay24]

Detroit is going to fail big. People want modern gameplay this gen, more than ever.

They do? Digging up a treasure in SoT is like hitting a button three times? They still make Tell Tale games. Some games are complex, some are simple. As long as they are good people will buy them.

 

[DieH@rd]

And how much did Beyond sold LTD ? 1.5 millions-ish ? There is a clear trend: 5.3 -> 1.5 -> ?

C'mon son.

HR's 5.3M is as of early January 2018 [~8 years on the market, with a fresh remaster released not to long ago
Beyond's 1M is as of early January 2014 [~3 months on the market]

 

[MrFox]

These games sell to those who appreciate them. There is a huge difference between a million seller which:
1. Most thought was kind of good
2. Is considered a masterpiece by some, others hated it

Average games are plentiful. The controversial outliers are appreciated more than anything else by a fraction, but every gamer have their different favorites. The sum of all of them adds up to the platform even though they are not individually giant sellers.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Just some completely random thoughts.

There's a small, albeit unlikely, chance that first year NSW sales will surpass lifetime PSVITA sales.

PS4 should surpass PS3 in sales this year. It would be extremely shocking if it didn't. It has a chance to eventually surpass PS1 sales depending on when PS5 is announced and whether it is true or not that sales of PS4 are slowing. It doesn't look like it has even a remote chance to surpass PS2 sales. PS2 was just such a good machine faced with almost zero competition which meant it had a huge library of 2nd and 3rd party exclusives.

XBO looks like it may end the generation halfway between XB and X360 (possibly lower than halfway).

If Nintendo can continue to keep sales of NSW strong, it has a good chance to surpass 3DS sales and even 3DS + Wii-U sales. Surpassing Wii is also a possibility as long as they can keep people interested in the console. Wii had a huge 3 year run of sales, but faltered after that. NSW basically just has to remain solid for 5-7 years to surpass it. The question is whether it'll remain strong. There's a good chance as it's developing into a very strong platform for indie games combined with a very strong stable of Nintendo 1st party games. 3rd party AAA and AA titles appear to be doing better on it than the Wii as well. Enough that 3rd party big pubs are working to port games to the NSW that never would have gotten the green light for the Wii.

Feel free to disagree, as these are just random thoughts about things too far into the future to have anything definitive said about them.

Regards,
SB

 

[djskribbles]

Just some completely random thoughts.

There's a small, albeit unlikely, chance that first year NSW sales will surpass lifetime PSVITA sales.

PS4 should surpass PS3 in sales this year. It would be extremely shocking if it didn't. It has a chance to eventually surpass PS1 sales depending on when PS5 is announced and whether it is true or not that sales of PS4 are slowing. It doesn't look like it has even a remote chance to surpass PS2 sales. PS2 was just such a good machine faced with almost zero competition which meant it had a huge library of 2nd and 3rd party exclusives.

XBO looks like it may end the generation halfway between XB and X360 (possibly lower than halfway).

If Nintendo can continue to keep sales of NSW strong, it has a good chance to surpass 3DS sales and even 3DS + Wii-U sales. Surpassing Wii is also a possibility as long as they can keep people interested in the console. Wii had a huge 3 year run of sales, but faltered after that. NSW basically just has to remain solid for 5-7 years to surpass it. The question is whether it'll remain strong. There's a good chance as it's developing into a very strong platform for indie games combined with a very strong stable of Nintendo 1st party games. 3rd party AAA and AA titles appear to be doing better on it than the Wii as well. Enough that 3rd party big pubs are working to port games to the NSW that never would have gotten the green light for the Wii.

Feel free to disagree, as these are just random thoughts about things too far into the future to have anything definitive said about them.

Regards,
SB

Even if the PS5 gets announced in 2019, PS4 should pass both of those milestones with ease. Sony will continue to support the PS4 for another few years after the PS5 is released, and if it's priced <$200 (which is likely) it will sell decently in those years.

My guess is the PS4 will pass PS3 sales before the holidays this year, maybe around fall. And the PS4 will pass the PS1 by the end of 2019, or very early 2020 at least.

The PS4's software lineup looks at least as strong as 2017. And I'm guessing Sony is going to have a small price drop in the fall, so I expect sales to be about flat YOY, with a possibility of them selling more if they play their cards right.

I'm guessing the PS4 will sell ~125M lifetime, which I didn't think would be possible in this day and age, where Japan is more mobile focused. If the PS4 sold as well as the PS2 did in Japan/Asia, PS4 sales would be around the same as the PS2 overall.

On the topic of console sales in Japan, I believe the PS4 is still ahead of the PS3's pace. I do expect the PS4 to sell slightly less than the PS3 though, which sold ~10.5M. If the PS5 is released in 2020, it might have a shot of matching it.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I'm guessing the PS4 will sell ~125M lifetime, which I didn't think would be possible in this day and age, where Japan is more mobile focused. If the PS4 sold as well as the PS2 did in Japan/Asia, PS4 sales would be around the same as the PS2 overall.

It certainly has a chance to hit 125M lifetime. I am a bit doubtful however. Sales drop off quite rapidly after a new console is released. PS2 managed to sell quite a bit due to problems with the PS3 (lineup, price, unfavorable cross platform comparison to X360 in first 2 years of release, etc.) after the PS3 was released. However, PS3 sales virtually dropped off a cliff after PS4 was released.

PS4 would need another ~50 million (I'm assuming PS4 is ~75 million currently) units to hit that mark. I'm assuming an average of 15 million a year (could be a bit higher or lower each year) until PS5 launch. After that I'm thinking it may sell another 10 million total, but there could be great variance up or down on that depending on a variety of factors (price of PS5, price of PS4, software support for PS5, etc.). This is assuming sales don't slow drastically, but is just a gradual decline until PS5 announcement.

If PS5 launches in 2019, I'm extremely doubtful it'll reach 125 million as that will mean it only has one major holiday season left (2018) with 2019 holiday season having to be shared with PS5. If it launches in 2020, it'd have a chance. 2021 and it would have a really good chance. I don't think Sony would wait until 2021, however.

That said, anything could happen between now and then. IE - what happens if Sony doesn't go with a hard console break like traditional console launches and instead commits to a rolling generation? Or perhaps some killer VR game comes out and VR manages to give PS4 a late life boost similar to Kinect with X360.

And for anyone coming into this. Just understand this is all friendly napkin math hypothetical discussions. No one can know how the future turns out. Just a fun thought process and fun discussion. No right or wrong. Although if someone came in saying PS4 will end up selling 300 million units...well.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

PS3's price never got low. If it could have hit a budget price, it'd have sold to the laggards, but it was just too pricey. PS4's should be able to get cheaper and get the bargain basement dwellers.