All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2016 Edition]

[Clukos]

The peak will be reached when they release a slim version and/or drop the price to $249. Which, due to the smart hardware decisions made by MS/Sony, can most probably be financially viable within 2017 at the latest. But it all depends on how much the current APUs cost to produce on FinFET versus the current cost in 28nm (plus the cut down PSU/size of the unit/cooling solution due to lower wattage).

 

[Rangers]

And this was with Halo 5 launching (and the TR "exclusivity"). It only gets more painful for MS from here.

Sony have momentum, but MS have inertia.

I wouldn't call it "painful", unless they get severely pounded in December NPD (lets say, 1.6 to 1) . I think that would be cause for alarm. If it's just like November, One is healthy. It's only painful if you thought One was going to challenge PS4, which I dont think anybody thought was a thing for a long time now.

Although you could argue One is losing the horse race in the states where maybe they had a chance to finish #1 (and still do, but this holiday was a very big blow).

The thing that really matter is if One was selling so poorly third parties would look at cutting off ports (speaking of the big guys, EA, etc). There's no sign of that. Every major core game (well, besides your typical oddball stuff like ROTR, SFV, niche titles) is announced for PS4, One, PC...

That's all that really matters in a way, besides forum bragging. The only thing that really affects joe schmoe with an Xbox is if he doesn't get a game. They will all be standing to reload next gen and we begin anew.

 

[Rangers]

I think Cosmic Queso on GAF has a good breakdown of TR sales

Originally Posted by CosmicQueso

I'm thinking that even 300k Packaged US in 2015 gets them to a million WW.

300k US Packaged = 340k Americas Packaged (assuming US = 88% of Americas).
340k Americas Packaged = 570k WW Packaged (assuming Amer = 60% of WW. This could be a high estimate since TR is strong in EUR historically, but I'm going with 60% due to Xone IB lagging in EUR. So, estimate).
570k WW Packaged = 710k WW Packaged & Digital (assuming Digital is 20% of total, could be a bit higher or lower).
That would leave a gap of 290k to get to 1m, which would be covered by the bundles (no idea how many were made or sold, but if Xone sells 2m units in DEC WW, 15% being TR bundles doesn't seem an outlandish assumption).

300k in USA for Nov+Dec combined? Oh yeah, that seems without question viable. Cosmic is even throwing around 1.2 million+ as a ROTR possibility.

 

[zed]

Sorry I couldn't help it...but yeah it's about 2:1 right? Why are people still expressing surprise at that?

Well mate, you should be very surprised. Remember you have kept on claiming multiple times here, the states makes up 50% of the xbox one's sales
I've been saying no its closer to 65%
And this data goes no its no where near 50%, in fact ... it could be even higher than 65%

 

[djskribbles]

If we assume that the XB1 sells ~1.3M in the US in December, that means lifetime sales in the US will be ~11M. If EA/Ubi's numbers are correct, that means the US makes up for ~64-68% of all XB1 sales... that's even higher than my guess of ~60%. That also means WW XB1 sales are lower than I thought.

 

[Rangers]

Well mate, you should be very surprised. Remember you have kept on claiming multiple times here, the states makes up 50% of the xbox one's sales
I've been saying no its closer to 65%
And this data goes no its no where near 50%, in fact ... it could be even higher than 65%

Huh? What data?

Edit: I think you are talking about what skribbles is and I'm going to assume GAF...the EA/Ubi estimate of 52-53 million next gen right? Well, that's not data...even someone touting it has to admit at best it was a prediction. Can someone link me these btw? Why would EA and Ubi both predict the same thing?

Also if I'm getting it right even that estimate would put XBO at 16-17 million sold and pretty close to 2:1 PS4 as expected anyway (slightly more, 2.25X if you took the absolute worst case for Xbox which would be your default assumption).

You should call data data...I wish we had more of it.

 

[djskribbles]

I think he's going off of EA's estimation of a 52-53M combined user base by the end of the calendar year. If true, and when considering that the PS4's userbase is 35.9M, then the US makes up for ~65% of all XB1 sales. If it was ~50% as you think it is, that would mean EA's prediction was off by 5-6M. Sure EA could have underestimated the PS4/XB1, but I doubt by that much.

 

[Rangers]

Yeah, I suppose PS4 sales are already higher than they expected at least.

Whenever I say Xbox=2:1 world:USA I always mean shipped:NPD sales anyway. So end user sales could be more like 60-40 or 55-45 or whatever, and I'd accept that. The rest would be ship slop.

 

[temesgen]

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ps4-sales-nearing-36-million-after-adding-57-milli/1100-6433517/

Sony sold through 35,9 millions of PS4

Seems somewhat interesting to be so specific about the number.... why not simply round up and say nearly 36 million?

 

[Shortbread]

Seems somewhat interesting to be so specific about the number.... why not simply round up and say nearly 36 million?

Maybe to comply with some type of rules/regulations setup within the corporation on making sure stockholders (who do read these PR blurps) have an accurate picture of how well (or not) the company is doing.

Let's say for shits and giggles that PS4 is short by 100k, on making 36 million. That's $29.9 million dollars (missing) worth of explaining to do for rounding off.

More than likely, Sony (its executives) are just being more accurate with information on its worldwide figures. Which is actually refreshing to hear...

 

[ZhugeEX]

Another interesting stat, between Nov22 and Jan3, PS4 users purchased 35M of software.

[BTW, what's the latest LTD software count for WiiU? ]

Nintendo's Wii U has achieved cumulative sell in of approximately 70 million units as of September 30th 2015. The PlayStation 4 achievied cumulative sell through of more than 80 million software units back at the end of 2014 so it's already overtaken the Wii U.

Shamelessly stollen and fudged by me with XBO as estimate (it's probably totally wrong)

If you're going to use my graph can you not edit it and then use my logo and design. I didn't make this but it looks like I did.

Simply just ask me to update it and I will

So if EA/UBI statements hold true (52-53 million PS4/XB1 combined by years end - 2015), that would put XB1 at 16.1-17.1 million units sold-through worldwide. Which is very low...

So, combined sales have to be closer to 54-56 million units, on making some type of sense that XB1 sales are above XB360 during the same period.

A forecast is a forecast. If we have an actual total sell through number then we can use that.

Using EA's forecast is no different than using IHS's forecasts. You end up with different results each time.

 

[Shortbread]

A forecast is a forecast. If we have an actual total sell through number then we can use that.

Using EA's forecast is no different than using IHS's forecasts. You end up with different results each time.

When I mentioned EA/UBI combined forecast statement, it wasn't meant to be accurate assessment of how many will sale (combined). But a grounded figure to start with on gauging splits between the PS4 and XB1 (since one camp is no longer releasing hardware data). I don't think (believe) EA/UBI are pulling figures out their asses, like Pachter, when it comes to these things. More than likely, EA/UBI have a close enough relationship with Sony/MS on gauging sales growth.

 

[bgroovy]

Seems somewhat interesting to be so specific about the number.... why not simply round up and say nearly 36 million?

By not being loosey-goosey with the numbers they shine an unflattering light on those who are. It's a rather pointed use of precise figures.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

By not being loosey-goosey with the numbers they shine an unflattering light on those who are. It's a rather pointed use of precise figures.

I'm certain Shortbread is on the nail. There are SEC regulations which apply to announcements relating to sales, profits/loses and revenue which require them to be accurate (or at least, not misleading) so inflating the number, even by a relatively small 100k, just isn't worth the aggravation.

This is definitely not about Microsoft.

 

[bgroovy]

If it was about the SEC they could use shipped figures which would obviously be more impressive. Emphasizing sell through is clearly a strategic choice by Sony's PR.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

If it was about the SEC they could use shipped figures which would obviously be more impressive. Emphasizing sell through is clearly a strategic choice by Sony's PR.

They could but I imagine they didn't want to use shipped figures which would be inconsistent with previously used sold through figures. These statements are predominantly for investors and it's a company's interest to make information easily digestible for the people that actually own the company.

Clear and accurate is the aim and 100k is neither here nor there.

edit: shipped, not sold through. urgh! - early morning posts.

 

[chris1515]

When I mentioned EA/UBI combined forecast statement, it wasn't meant to be accurate assessment of how many will sale (combined). But a grounded figure to start with on gauging splits between the PS4 and XB1 (since one camp is no longer releasing hardware data). I don't think (believe) EA/UBI are pulling figures out their asses, like Pachter, when it comes to these things. More than likely, EA/UBI have a close enough relationship with Sony/MS on gauging sales growth.

EA change their forecast during the year first it was 49 millions PS4 and Xbox One combined

http://www.dualshockers.com/2015/07...f-2015-ps4-forecast-increase-hugely-positive/

And after they change and said 52 to 53 millions of PS4 and Xbox One combined:

http://www.dualshockers.com/2015/12...firms-sales-target-for-star-wars-battlefront/

After maybe it is higher by one million sales...

I know Ubisoft forecast a number if 53 millions I think.

 

[chris1515]

Find this on GAF the forecast was revised 3 times and not 2 times:

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=191344053

EA revised their forecast several times, went like this:
50M by March 16 (in May 15)
Then by the end of 15:
49M (July 15)
50-51M (Mid Nov)
52-53M (early Dec)

I think it is only a forecast but probably accurate maybe with an error margin of one million...

 

[goonergaz]

I wouldn't call it "painful", unless they get severely pounded in December NPD (lets say, 1.6 to 1) . I think that would be cause for alarm. If it's just like November, One is healthy. It's only painful if you thought One was going to challenge PS4, which I dont think anybody thought was a thing for a long time now.

I think he's saying that even with the XBs biggest franchise they couldn't muster a bigger sales figure than PS4 which has a massive 2016 ahead.

If you're going to use my graph can you not edit it and then use my logo and design. I didn't make this but it looks like I did.

Simply just ask me to update it and I will

Sorry mate, it was a very quick and very dirty fudge - please feel free to give us the real deal (I will remove mine now)

 

[Shortbread]

Find this on GAF the forecast was revised 3 times and not 2 times:

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=191344053




I think it is only a forecast but probably accurate maybe with an error margin of one million...

Exactly. EA/UBI (as well as others), more than likely have some type of grasp or understanding on how healthy (or not) consoles sales are going to be over a period of time. And more than likely, Sony/MS are sharing data with them as well, for a host of reasons.