All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2016 Edition]

[London Geezer]

Well of course. How else are the publishers going to know how many copies of their games they need to press, and how many they are expecting to sell?

 

[dobwal]

Well of course. How else are the publishers going to know how many copies of their games they need to press, and how many they are expecting to sell?

Pre-order numbers and other metrics related to the internet and social media.. A console LTD and its userbase's appetitie may ultimately determine whether a console is worth supporting. But the LTD of the PS4 in and of itself won't tell you how many units you need to print up. There are better indicators than LTD.

 

[London Geezer]

Of course it's one of the metrics. My point is that launching a game on a platform with a 40M userbase would require different resources to one with a 20M userbase, that's all. Sure they'll also look at other factors, but an updated userbase is always helpful.

 

[ZhugeEX]

When I mentioned EA/UBI combined forecast statement, it wasn't meant to be accurate assessment of how many will sale (combined). But a grounded figure to start with on gauging splits between the PS4 and XB1 (since one camp is no longer releasing hardware data). I don't think (believe) EA/UBI are pulling figures out their asses, like Pachter, when it comes to these things. More than likely, EA/UBI have a close enough relationship with Sony/MS on gauging sales growth.

Yup, It's just a rough idea as you say.

Just wanted to re-iterate that using a forecast to work out an absolute number isn't a good idea. Even if it does end up being spot on or something.

Sorry mate, it was a very quick and very dirty fudge - please feel free to give us the real deal (I will remove mine now)

\

No worries.

The reason I haven't updated it yet is because the number we were given is a sell through number but the Chart specifically talks about sell in numbers. Therefore It would be impossible for me to add the number to that chart. I will release a fully updated chart on Jan 29th after the Sony Investor Briefing.

For now please see this PS4 graph.

 

[goonergaz]

I like graphs me

 

[dobwal]

Of course it's one of the metrics. My point is that launching a game on a platform with a 40M userbase would require different resources to one with a 20M userbase, that's all. Sure they'll also look at other factors, but an updated userbase is always helpful.

Yes its helpful. The question is whether its accurate. Given Chris 1515 list of revisions, why should we trust EA's ability to forecast?

I mean if you need to revise estimates from mid Nov 16 in early Dec 16 of the XB1/PS4 LTD for the end of 2016, you are having problems forecasting accurately. Who needs 11 months and some change to accurately estimate a figure for overall sales for the year? Might as well wait for real figures to roll in.

Might as well use Vgchartz numbers.

 

[chris1515]

Yes its helpful. The question is whether its accurate. Given Chris 1515 list of revisions, why should we trust EA's ability to forecast?

I mean if you need to revise estimates from mid Nov 16 in early Dec 16 of the XB1/PS4 LTD for the end of 2016, you are having problems forecasting accurately. Who needs 11 months and some change to accurately estimate a figure for overall sales for the year? Might as well wait for real figures to roll in.

Might as well use Vgchartz numbers.

You think EA is as accurate as VGCHARTZ a bit of seriousness. They have NPD number, GFK number, Chart track number, analyst number and other chart tracker


They were surprised by the success of console...

They only change the forecast from 49 millions in July 2015 to December 2015. And between The two last forecast there is only 1 million of consoles...

 

[chris1515]

Sony change their forecast for the fiscal year one time and they will change it again. They said they will sold in 38,8 millions PS4 end of fiscal years(March 2016)...

And if there is the same stock of PS4 than last year. The number is 38,6 millions PS4 sold end of 2015 and they will sold in 40 millions PS4 end of fiscal year.

 

[ZhugeEX]

They only change the forecast from 49 millions in July 2015 to December 2015. And between The two last forecast there is only 1 million of consoles...

EA have changed their forecast numerous times since 2013. Which is to be expected from a company that needs to know where the install base will be in order to work out the potential of their in development titles as well as future titles.

The latest forecast dated December is for approx 53 million. They actual result may be different.

This is a good indicator for us to use of the total install base though. But it's not something we can use to get splits.

For example, IHS predicted the install base to be 54 million at this point. But they also expected PS4 to be at 34 million. Obviously it is over that. So as I said, the split there was incorrect.

Sony change their forecast for the fiscal year one time and they will change it again. They said they will sold in 38,8 millions PS4 end of fiscal years(March 2016)...

And if there is the same stock of PS4 than last year. The number is 38,6 millions PS4 sold end of 2015 and they will sold in 40 millions PS4 end of fiscal year.

Sony's original forecast at the start of the fiscal year (April 2015) was 16 million. This would have led to cumulative sell in as of 38.3 million units as of March 2016.

Sony's updated their forecast in July 2015 from 16 million to 16.5 million. This would have led to cumulative sell in as of 38.8 million units as of March 2016.

Sony's updated their forecast in October 2015 from 16.5 million to 17.5 million. This will lead to cumulative sell in as of 39.8 million units as of March 2016.

The total amount sold through as of January 3rd 2016 is 35.9 million. Therefore it is very likely (when accounting for units in channel) that Sony will be able to achieve their revised forecast.

 

[ZhugeEX]

A bit of Info about the Japanese Game market.

The console market is at it's lowest point since 26 years ago. Mobile makes more than double this.

 

[dobwal]

You think EA is as accurate as VGCHARTZ a bit of seriousness. They have NPD number, GFK number, Chart track number, analyst number and other chart tracker


They were surprised by the success of console...

They only change the forecast from 49 millions in July 2015 to December 2015. And between The two last forecast there is only 1 million of consoles...

No I don't consider either to be very accurate. VGChartz may be good for post NPD, GFK and Chart track numbers but any number produced before hand is usually treated here with a lot of skepticism.

Furthermore, I don't see any utility in EA's forecasting tool. If you are trying to produce an estimate at month 26 but are dependent on data from month 25, how can you depend on that tool when forecasting future console LTDs for products which are anywhere from 24-36 months from release?

Given Sony ability to give pretty good annual estimates (I'd doubt you find many instances where their annual projections are off by more than a couple of millions), it seem like the only problem with using manufacturers' projections and thereby needing to produce your own is that MS is either horrible at it or they don't provide projections.

 

[Clukos]

A bit of Info about the Japanese Game market.

The console market is at it's lowest point since 26 years ago. Mobile makes more than double this.

How much of that can be contributed to Nintendo being pretty much irrelevant in the last two years for home consoles?

 

[ZhugeEX]

How much of that can be contributed to Nintendo being pretty much irrelevant in the last two years for home consoles?

You mean despite the fact that they are the cumulative leader in home consoles in Japan + The 3DS has sold over 20m units.

It;s not Nintendo. It's the way Japanese gaming habits have changed.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Here are some UK sales numbers for 2015.

Packaged unit sales at retail (No digital download).

Comparisons:

FIFA 12 - 2,193,302
FIFA 13 - 2,601,877
FIFA 14 - 2,656,763
FIFA 15 - 2,663,296
FIFA 16 – 2,516,079

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - 2,814,609
Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 - 2,672,364
Call of Duty Ghosts – 1,991,994
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - 1,837,025
Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 – 1,928,813

 

[Rangers]

Is Adele a good game?





<groan>

Fifa prints money.

COD definitely is at a lower plateau from it's heyday, but Blops 3 did well within that plateau. That said I kinda feel like the "Black Ops" moniker was one of the few within the COD universe that still has cache, so maybe it's actually disappointing they couldn't wring more out of it in that light.

Fallout 4 beats Star Wars, but it was close enough to be a ballpark tie.

 

[Rangers]

Amazon November vs December charts (maybe done before in this thread but I hadn't seen it, also since there are 2016 charts on the website I'm assuming the December 15 charts are final). To see if we can glean any hints to what December NPD may look like.

November
#1 PS4 500GB Uncharted bundle (physical disc edition)
#8 Xbox One Gears UE 500 GB bundle
#15 PS4 500Gb Star Wars bundle
#23 Xbox One 3 games 1TB holiday bundle
#31 PS4 1TB Blops 3 bundle
#42 PS4 Uncharted collection 500 GB bundle (download code edition)
#44 Xbox One 1TB Fallout 4 bundle
#59 PS4 Star Wars limited edition 500GB bundle


December
#3 500GB Star Wars PS4 bundle
#15 500GB Gears UE Xbox One bundle
#40 500Gb Uncharted Collection PS4 bundle
#55 1 TB 3 Games holiday Xbox One bundle
#88 500 GB PS4 Blops 3 bundle

I cannot tell much except PS4 is clearly leading December at Amazon, and overall it would appear hardware sales were less frenzied in Dec at amazon. 5 hardware SKU's in the top 100 vs 8 in Nov, etc,

 

[London Geezer]

Bah! Adele won't even work on a PS4. I'll just watch a playthrough on youtube.

 

[zed]

November
#1 PS4 500GB Uncharted bundle (physical disc edition)
#42 PS4 Uncharted collection 500 GB bundle (download code edition)

Anyone still think making a console digital download only this generation would not of been a mistake?
cue angry anectdote's 'but I only download games' (btw the last time I physically brought a game was 2004)

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Well, finally had some time to game, and figured that I'd finally be able to get a Microsoft XBO Elite Controller now that the holidays are over. Well, that turned out to be a bust as they are out of stock pretty much everywhere in the US still, and likely will be until sometime in March (Newegg listed as March, Amazon as just sometime during the Spring) as stores continue to fulfill orders placed during the Holidays. Or hope to get lucky and be at a retail store when more stock comes in.

Argh, Microsoft needs to make more Xbox Elite Controllers per month, at least until stock catches up with demand. It's well into Jan. now and most places in the US don't expect to be able to fulfill any new orders until sometime in March! Amazon, BestBuy, Gamestop, Newegg, Buy.com (Rakuten), etc. are all out except for 3rd party sellers. Markups range from ~190 USD on Amazon to ~379 USD (!) on Buy.com (Rakuten) from 3rd party sellers.

I'd really like to see sales numbers for this controller just to get an idea of how many Microsoft are producing. Wonder if ZhugeEX might have access to those numbers for the US?

Regards,
SB

 

[Rangers]

Anyone still think making a console digital download only this generation would not of been a mistake?
cue angry anectdote's 'but I only download games' (btw the last time I physically brought a game was 2004)

Too be fair I doubt Amazon is a good judge, they often run out of stock of this or that SKU which may affect the ranking.