Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Shifty Geezer]

4k display future discussion is here. Whether displays go 3D via lenticular lenses or shutter glasses or head-mounted displays is also OT. For the purpose of next gen I think it safe to say 3D will be a supported feature, and hardware may or may not be designed to support it, although at the moment I don't think there are any hardware choices to aid 3D - you just use the normal graphics rendering hardware and render 3D with it however you choose.

 

[novcze]

It looks like someone thinks that Sony needs to push something with new console, they already push 3D with PS3 and they will continue with PS4 regardless of display technology. HDMI 1.4 already supports 4K and 1080p 3D so there is no need to wait.

What they need to have is powerfull console to deliver impressive picture to these displays.

If they want some augmented reality or 3D scanning device, they should put all extra processing into device and sell it as accessory as majority of players are not interested.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What they need to have is powerfull console to deliver impressive picture to these displays.

It's not possible. The most powerful of no-cost-spared monster PC rigs can't render smooth 8 megapixel games with all the fancy trimmings. Consoles could render about half 1080p this gen, and 4k would be 8x the pixels, requiring 8x the console just to get the same results as this gen. 4k games will not happen next-gen. 4k output will be upscaled, and as every 4k TV will need to upscale content, it'd make sense not to worry about that in the console. thus 4k is a non-issue for hardware design. Thye just put in the best specs for their intended price as possible and let the devs write whatever resolution they want. If in 2020 some dev wants to write a 4k title using sprites or something, they'll have that option.

 

[Crossbar]

It's not possible. The most powerful of no-cost-spared monster PC rigs can't render smooth 8 megapixel games with all the fancy trimmings. Consoles could render about half 1080p this gen, and 4k would be 8x the pixels, requiring 8x the console just to get the same results as this gen. 4k games will not happen next-gen. 4k output will be upscaled, and as every 4k TV will need to upscale content, it'd make sense not to worry about that in the console. thus 4k is a non-issue for hardware design. Thye just put in the best specs for their intended price as possible and let the devs write whatever resolution they want. If in 2020 some dev wants to write a 4k title using sprites or something, they'll have that option.

4k with a frame rate above 30 Hz would require a new HDMI spec, likely including a new electrical interface, such a new spec would likely also include support for multiview screens (>2).

I expect at least the PS4 and possibly the 720 to include such an interface. I believe Sony has a stronger incentive to push new a generation of TV technology, I see the PS3 as an evidence of this.

 

[novcze]

It's not possible. The most powerful of no-cost-spared monster PC rigs can't render smooth 8 megapixel games with all the fancy trimmings. Consoles could render about half 1080p this gen, and 4k would be 8x the pixels, requiring 8x the console just to get the same results as this gen. 4k games will not happen next-gen. 4k output will be upscaled, and as every 4k TV will need to upscale content, it'd make sense not to worry about that in the console. thus 4k is a non-issue for hardware design. Thye just put in the best specs for their intended price as possible and let the devs write whatever resolution they want. If in 2020 some dev wants to write a 4k title using sprites or something, they'll have that option.

Of course, just wanted to remark what their main focus should be, they don't need to worry about FPGA's or future standards, just make console with the best performance possible for given price.
I just hope Sony doesn't get delusional with market needs, graphics sells if they want to cater to hardcore gamers.

 

[Kaotik]

4k with a frame rate above 30 Hz would require a new HDMI spec, likely including a new electrical interface, such a new spec would likely also include support for multiview screens (>2).

I expect at least the PS4 and possibly the 720 to include such an interface. I believe Sony has a stronger incentive to push new a generation of TV technology, I see the PS3 as an evidence of this.

We already have such "wider standard", allowing at least 3840 × 2160 × 30 bpp @ 60 Hz, called displayport, but I haven't seen any TV manufacturer implementing it, and even on the computer-front only some display manufacturers use it despite the fact that you don't have to pay royalties for it like you have to for HDMI

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I expect at least the PS4 and possibly the 720 to include such an interface. I believe Sony has a stronger incentive to push new a generation of TV technology, I see the PS3 as an evidence of this.

As a hardware choice affecting next gen, that's fair, although I wouldn't be surprised if the first console just have HDMI and if a standard becomes cheap enough, a later upgraded output introduced same as 360. Unlike PS3 that needed all the mod cons to push Sony's format, there's little incentive to blow a few extra million dollars supporting a niche new display interface if people aren't going to use it.

 

[french toast]

Is there even going to be a new ps4? maybe not this year according to this;
http://stuffmideast.com/2012/01/15/122308/sony-says-no-to-playstation-4-at-e3/

I really think we aren't going to see a new console that will not bring something funky and new, maybe 1080p streoscopic 3d will be the standard along with kinect 2,windows 8 custom and dvr.

4K seems to be the limit that technology could handle with loads of goodies added, usually the high end consoles when released have graphics that surpass the pc single graphics cards, take a tahiti equivalent gpu and remove the api bloat and 4k seems realistic.

Steroscopic 3d is also a realistic target, certainly 720p tvs are already here and usually you need an introduction of a console to drive a technology for it to succeed.

 

[TheWretched]

4K seems to be the limit that technology could handle with loads of goodies added usually the high end consoles when released have graphics that surpass the pc single graphics cards, take a tahiti equivalent gpu and remove the api bloat and 4k seems realistic.

I can't really confirm the bolded part from experience. I upgraded my PC right around the time PS3 launched and got a medium-high-end one, which was about 1000€ at the time. The 8800GTS served me well up until last year. And all games ran MUCH better than on consoles. I could've spent about twice as much on the GPU, getting the 8800GTX, which would've been faster still. And also the CPU wasn't really fast back then, either. I know, I am listing high end parts here, but your post was very general, so it should include all parts, too. Especially since you include Tahiti.

If the next consoles launched a year from now (i.e. a year after Tahitis announcement), they'd still be slower than that, because the size and heat of that cheap can't be afforded. If anything, Pitcairn could make the cut. And that part surely is quite a bit slower than Tahiti. But by next year, we could already see AMDs refresh parts, which are likely to be 30% faster than Tahiti.

 

[AlphaWolf]

8800GTS released like a year after the 8800GTX didn't it? ie I don't think you could get a 8800GTS in 2006.

Anyway TDP will be the limit on the next generation of consoles (just a matter of knowing where that limit will be), although it's starting to limit graphics cards as well.

 

[TheWretched]

8800GTS released like a year after the 8800GTX didn't it? ie I don't think you could get a 8800GTS in 2006.

Anyway TDP will be the limit on the next generation of consoles (just a matter of knowing where that limit will be), although it's starting to limit graphics cards as well.

I bought mine in early 2007, before the Euro launch. According to Wikipedia, the 8800GTS was announced at the same day as the GTX, November 8th, only the G92 (i.e. 8800GTS512 etc) came a year later.

 

[Tahir2]

Read the interview article, sounds very Kutaragi-esque without much of the charisma.

Why are Sony devoting their cash cow to new unproven technologies of the future? Seems like suicide to me. Sony makes great products but seems to sacrifice itself for the "greater good".

The promises of 8k displays and 300 fps are merely a fantasy IMHO - let's hope they don't compromise 1080p trying to catch the 8k butterfly. As many have said this generation of consoles were not able to deliver on all their HD promises. We don't want the future tomorrow, we want it now.

 

[Jedi2016]

I imagine it's more of a "this is where we want gaming to eventually be" statement. I see no reason to believe that they're actually talking about doing any of this now.

Presumably, Microsoft will be announcing first, based on what we've heard. That will give us an idea of the general power level of the next-gen systems. Even if Sony comes up with a totally different architecture, the general performance level will be about the same, just like it's always been. E3's still a long way off, and there's already rumors aplenty flying around.

 

[jlippo]

The promises of 8k displays and 300 fps are merely a fantasy IMHO - let's hope they don't compromise 1080p trying to catch the 8k butterfly. As many have said this generation of consoles were not able to deliver on all their HD promises. We don't want the future tomorrow, we want it now.

It's not that bad if you actually can transfer the data to display device.
From renderers point of view you would only need to decouple shading from a display resolution and 8k resolution becomes 'feasible'.

 

[McHuj]

Virtex 7 from Xilinx is quite the beast http://www.xilinx.com/products/silicon-devices/fpga/virtex-7/index.htm, but I don't think FPGA would be ideal. SPU's in Cell are capable of en/decoding in software just about anything (today), make them more "next-gen" and they will be future proof enough.

Thanks for the link. Poking around their website (for work related reasons), I stumbled on this white paper:
http://www.xilinx.com/support/documentation/white_papers/wp389_Lowering_Power_at_28nm.pdf

Granted it's about lowering the power of FPGA, but I think some of it can be applicable to a customized GPU.

Figure 1 illustrates the different variations of 28nm processes. I would guess that the 7xxx series by AMD is based on the HP process since they're hitting very high clock rates. For a custom GPU console, I don't think they would be hitting such high clocks. I'll guess 750 MHz max so going to an HPL process could provide much better power savings than just clocking lower.

Figure 8 on the use of the Stack Silicon Interconnect and it's power savings is interesting. In theory, I could see how this could be applied to custom GPU as well; perhaps, using groups of CU's as "GPU slice" When they rumors of the multi-gpu for the next xbox came out, perhaps this is they're origin. MS maybe is using a multi GPU system to simulate running code on a GPU composed of slices.

I know SSI has been discussed before, but this is the first time that I've come across seeing the illustrated in an actual product. Granted for FPGA's like this yields are not really not a factor since Xillinx can charge pretty much what they wish ($1000+ for some of them).

 

[french toast]

I would have liked to see the multiple cells, and how they were going to talk to each other and form a global network that allowed them to offload work onto currently idle cells on other machines.

I miss Ken.

Ha ha, yea so do i, he was at least a man who wasn't afraid to dream
I don't think we will see his likes again

I have a nasty feeling that we aren'tgoing to see another next gen console at all. if you look at what onlive is doing, i doo wander if thats what microsoft secretly had up their sleeve?
Both microkia and sony have announced that they arn't announcing anything at this years E3, and i believe them.

You do have to wander whether its actually worth them spending all that money when they areraking it in currently??

 

[Kaotik]

I would have liked to see the multiple cells, and how they were going to talk to each other and form a global network that allowed them to offload work onto currently idle cells on other machines.

I miss Ken.

This is the kind of thinking that gets us Skynet

Other than that, Sony really needs their own new innovation and quick, copying others 1 gen behind isn't enough.
Nintendo has wiimote control + upcoming touchscreen & wiimote control
Microsoft has Kinect that no doubt gets improved (more precise etc) for NextBox
Sony has copy of wiimote, and ugly one at that, and on my short test it didn't even feel as good.

There's no denying that just humping up the graphics isn't going to be enough next gen, not for Sony, for MS it can be since they got Kinect, for Nintendo it could have been due Wiimote success but they're still adding completely new [for home consoles] control aspect with the touchscreen.

IMO the "raw tech specs" are far less interesting for next gen, than how they're being controlled this time.

 

[bkilian]

Ha ha, yea so do i, he was at least a man who wasn't afraid to dream
I don't think we will see his likes again

Hopefully some new visionary will take his place at some point. Probably in a different company though. Sony has been co-opted by their media arm, and those guys are pretty conservative.

I have a nasty feeling that we aren'tgoing to see another next gen console at all. if you look at what onlive is doing, i doo wander if thats what microsoft secretly had up their sleeve?
Both microkia and sony have announced that they arn't announcing anything at this years E3, and i believe them.

You do have to wander whether its actually worth them spending all that money when they areraking it in currently??

It seems to make sense to me to anounce as late as possible. The Wuu announcement seems awfully early to me, but since their sales had already plummeted, I suppose it didn't hurt them too much. We'll just have to wait for the inevitable leaks to see what the other companies have up their sleeves. (Although an onlive kind of arrangement would be much easier to hide, since your developers are just building PC games)

 

[blip]

This generation proved that if you are going to try to run games in high definition then you really need to give the console enough horsepower to do it without being hamstrung in every department. If all they try to do is bump up resolution *again* without giving enough memory and bandwidth to provide high resolution textures and large draw distances and large areas without loading, then what will be the point?

512mb of RAM truly crippled this generation.. yes there have been some good games but all of them are low res texture messed. Some just hide it better than others (fighting games or NBA games for example don't have the demands of a Call of Duty or GTA style game etc...)

The point is I hope next gen, they stick to targeting 1080p/720p and this time really giving the box enough horsepower so that they can make truly next gen games. WHen I walk up to a wall in Modern Warfare 5 it better not have low res textures again. And the damn resolution better not be 600p (what a freakin joke) it better be 1080p native and it better look damn good on my 720p lol...

 

[Rangers]

Alieware introduced a very small form factor gaming PC called the X51 that happen to be "console sized" and "slightly larger than the original PS3 " today.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/5439/alienwares-x51-is-coming

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...s-its-first-small-and-cheap-gaming-pc-the-x51

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGknqZ6sQcE

It really does look exactly like a console >> http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2012/01/alienware-new-computer.jpg

I guess the reason I'm posting it is it refocused me on the challenges these console guys have. The X51 while it would beat current consoles, is no performance monster (top line GPU available is the GTX 555, 288 SP's, 192 bit bus, 4ghz gddr5, 776 core clock/1553 shaders, starts at core i3 CPU), and starts at 699. Also has an external power brick apparently.

Again while certainly off the shelf parts aren't ideal, it really shows what a challenge the console makers who cant even dream of charging 699 have.

Although come to think of it you can lop $100 off for Windows straightaway.

Alienware X51 Product Specifications:

Intel Core i3 Dual Core (standard) and Intel Core i5 and i7 Quad Core Processor Options
Intel H61 Express Chipset Architecture
Mini-ITX Motherboard
Powerful NVIDIA Graphics Card Options
1GB GDDR5 NVIDIA GeForce GT 545 (Standard)
1GB GDDR5 NVIDIA GeForce GTX 555
Configure with up to 8GB of DDR3 Memory (4GB Standard); 2x 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM Slots
Fast 7,200RPM 1TB Hard Drive
Microsoft Windows 7 Home Premium
Slot-Loading Dual Layer DVD Burner (Standard) or optional Blu-ray Disc Reader
Internal High-Definition 7.1 Performance Audio with Waves MAXX Audio Software
Integrated 10/100/1000Mbps Gigabit Ethernet NIC and Integrated 802.11 a/b/g/n Wi-Fi Wireless LAN (standard)
USB 2.0 (6x); USB 3.0 (2x); Microphone In; Headphone/Speaker Out; HDMI 1.4 Output; RJ-45 Gigabit Ethernet; Front, Rear and Center Speaker Ports; SPDIF Digital Output (TOSLINK); SPDIF Digital Output (Coax)
Alienware 240 Watt Power Supply (Standard) or optional 330 Watt Power Supply
Dual-orientation tower system dimensions: h: 13.5" (343mm) x w: 3.74" (95mm) x d: 12.52" (318mm)
Starting Weight: 12.1 lbs. (5.49 Kg.)

240 or 330 watt PSU? Apparently an external brick, like to get a look at it's size...

240 or 330 means the actual amount used by the system must be significantly less, right (PSU inefficiency)? Wasn't the original PS3 PSU 330 watts?

I think for next gen everything on this system would be fine, with the exception of a significantly more powerful GPU and significantly lower price being needed.

192 bit bus GPU, good compromise? We think 256 bit isn't possible, maybe 192 is?