Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[AlphaWolf]

I guess the reason I'm posting it is it refocused me on the challenges these console guys have. The X51 while it would beat current consoles, is no performance monster (top line GPU available is the GTX 555, 288 SP's, 192 bit bus, 4ghz gddr5, 776 core clock/1553 shaders, starts at core i3 CPU), and starts at 699. Also has an external power brick apparently.

Again while certainly off the shelf parts aren't ideal, it really shows what a challenge the console makers who cant even dream of charging 699 have.

Although come to think of it you can lop $100 off for Windows straightaway.

The console manufacturers don't need the 30% profit on each box that Dell is taking in either also I doubt intel is selling the cpu at a low flat rate. Aside from the fancy custom console looking box, I expect I could put together a much more powerful gaming box for a lot less money.

<edit> and OEMs aren't paying $100 for installed copies of windows, although they might be charging that.

 

[vjPiedPiper]

What about the possibility of a Base console with a large HDD/Flash for holding Games, and using digital download to get games onto the system, OR for those people who don't want DD, an extra-external Blu-ray drive, similar to the original HD-DVD drive. This external BR drive allows for loading of games from disc, and also functions as a Blu-ray drive.

A good compromise between DD and Blu-ray capabilities, without being seen as going totally DD and possibly pissing off the distributors.

 

[AlphaWolf]

What about the possibility of a Base console with a large HDD/Flash for holding Games, and using digital download to get games onto the system, OR for those people who don't want DD, an extra-external Blu-ray drive, similar to the original HD-DVD drive. This external BR drive allows for loading of games from disc, and also functions as a Blu-ray drive.

A good compromise between DD and Blu-ray capabilities, without being seen as going totally DD and possibly pissing off the distributors.

I'd love to see the optical drives go away (they add a lot of size to the boxes and a fast enough to matter blu-ray drive is also going to add noise), that's probably a good way to wean people off of them. I just don't know if either Sony or MS can have the infrastructure in place to offer full DD from launch as millions people trying to download 10GB of COD every november will certainly stress the system. And I don't know how well Gamestop would take the news.

 

[Rangers]

The console manufacturers don't need the 30% profit on each box that Dell is taking in either also I doubt intel is selling the cpu at a low flat rate. Aside from the fancy custom console looking box, I expect I could put together a much more powerful gaming box for a lot less money.

<edit> and OEMs aren't paying $100 for installed copies of windows, although they might be charging that.

Maybe, but it would be huge (by console standards). And I dont think you could undercut it by a ton on price either. you cant get around paying significant amounts each for a CPU, GPU, PSU, enclosure, RAM, etc. The key is the small enclosure though, that's whats limiting the X51 GPU and that's the point, it doesn't matter what you can build in a reasonable size PC case.

By and large the GTX 555 in that box isn't horrible even by next gen. Sure it only has 288 cuda cores, whereas I consider Xenos to have the equivalent of 240 (48X5) (and yes I know it's not a valid comparison but I use it), so that doesn't sound impressive, but then I realized the shaders on the 555 are running at 3X xenos clock. It actually works out to 3.6X by that measure. It may be something like half of what you'd expect in next gen.

But it's just interesting to me because that basically looks exactly like a console. The 30% profit thing is a good point though, I'm guessing alienware may have pretty high margins even though Dell proper doesn't come close to the 30% margins you claim. Although Anandtech expressed surprise at the low price of the device for an alienware, suggesting perhaps it pulls a lower than usual profit margin for alienware.

 

[ZeroEx]

I'm wondering, do you think console makers would consider using mobile gpus instead of full PC spec graphics cards?

Even though this new Alienware PC has a similar form factor and shows what potential next generation consoles might have, it still has room for improvement.

For example their max GPU card is the GTX555 (OEM) card. Which is more or less a desktop GPU.
(http://uk.geforce.com/hardware/desktop-gpus/geforce-gtx-555-oem/specifications)

If they used mobile GPUs they could have considered the GTX 580M which has more shaders and also more VRAM and a 256bit interface.
(http://uk.geforce.com/hardware/notebook-gpus/geforce-gtx-580m/specifications)

Also if we are comparing this PC to a potential console, we're thinking about custom or close to customized CPUs and additional parts, that might have a huge performance boost over conventional PC specs. Not to mention the OS overhead might not be as high in a console.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Maybe, but it would be huge (by console standards). And I dont think you could undercut it by a ton on price either. you cant get around paying significant amounts each for a CPU, GPU, PSU, enclosure, RAM, etc. The key is the small enclosure though, that's whats limiting the X51 GPU and that's the point, it doesn't matter what you can build in a reasonable size PC case.

By and large the GTX 555 in that box isn't horrible even by next gen. Sure it only has 288 cuda cores, whereas I consider Xenos to have the equivalent of 240 (48X5) (and yes I know it's not a valid comparison but I use it), so that doesn't sound impressive, but then I realized the shaders on the 555 are running at 3X xenos clock. It actually works out to 3.6X by that measure. It may be something like half of what you'd expect in next gen.

But it's just interesting to me because that basically looks exactly like a console. The 30% profit thing is a good point though, I'm guessing alienware may have pretty high margins even though Dell proper doesn't come close to the 30% margins you claim. Although Anandtech expressed surprise at the low price of the device for an alienware, suggesting perhaps it pulls a lower than usual profit margin for alienware.

You can buy small cases, or make them yourself although perhaps not so fancy. The 555 probably isn't included in that base price considering they have a lower power option, but it would certainly be easy enough to surpass on a $700 budget.

Anand expressed surprise at the low price, because alienware desktops start at $2200. They don't want to compete with the Dell XPS systems, they are sold as a higher end.

 

[Rangers]

Well, there's a difference between a "small case" and the X51/console size. And I'm also not so sure the 555 can be beaten really for $700. Unless you go AMD CPU and other such caveats. I will peruse neweggs SFF stuff in a minute to get a better idea...

But in the end there you've got a console sized box without enough power for next gen retailing for 699+. Again it just shows what they're up against. And that case makes the Wii U look small...

 

[Prophecy2k]

I'd quite like to see Sony design the PS4 along the lines of an AV reciever. Like this one:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/images/B004TRY3Z8/ref=dp_image_z_0?ie=UTF8&n=560798&s=electronics

I wouldn't mind it then being much larger than the launch PS3/360s, as it would just look slick sitting under/beside my TV.

Surely that would allow more space for cooling etc, and thus they could be a little more aggressive with their power envelope and transister budgets.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'd quite like to see Sony design the PS4 along the lines of an AV reciever. Like this one:

Consoles don't just sit under TVs in the living room, but also on bedroom desks and the like. I think they also need to be fairly portable as they do get taken round other people's houses.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Consoles don't just sit under TVs in the living room, but also on bedroom desks and the like. I think they also need to be fairly portable as they do get taken round other people's houses.

It doesn't have to be as big as the one I linked to, i was referring to more the style of the design moreso than the size and heft.

Although i'm not sure it's even important for MS or Sony to design a console so that you can take it round to your mates house. It would be in their interest for you to encourage your mate to buy his own so that you don't need to carry anything with you when you go round. I sure don't carry my PS3 about much. Plus, you're not going to be carrying it about regularly enough for it to be too much of an issue even if it is a slight on the hefty side.

I think the size and weight is more of an issue to the cost of distribution and shipping of the consoles, moreso than to what we as the end user will do with them once we've bought them.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It has to be portable in the early days because you friend brings round their PS4 to play FIFA 14 which convinces you to get a PS4 too. I've had consoles moved between peoples houses for pretty much as long as I've used consoles.

As for style, CDTV and Phillips CDi were the first to try that strategy, but that's really a subject for a console design thread rather than console hardware.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Lol, yes i humbly bow to the authority on that one since i admit it was a little OT

 

[blip]

Will next gen games be natively rendered at 1080p?

Have the console mfr's learned their lesson about skimping on RAM?

This console generation proved that if you want to run HD resolutions you need to have the specs to be able to provide the texture detail and fillrate that can provide visuals that will hold up at said HD resolutions.

This generation failed too do that, just play Modern Warfare 3 on Xbox 360. You're playing a game that is being rendered at 600p, and not only that, look at those floor textures. Walk up to the walls, any walls. Walk up to the cars. Fugly textures abound in 2012. Doom 3 on my PC in 2006 looked cleaner than this.

IMO Sony and Microsoft better be looking at atleast an 8x increase in RAM, if not 16x if they want to turn these things into full blown multitasking-all-the-time computers that are streaming this and loading that while you're playing Modern Warfare 6.

The CPU isn't that important, honestly they could toss in an old Core2Quad 3ghz and it would be more than enough. They need to focus on putting in a GPU and giving it enough memory to really fill up HD resolution with high quality textures and high fillrate, high polys, all of that.

 

[Prophecy2k]

blip this thread is for predicting the actual HW that will come in the next-gen boxes. Whilst your question may be a valid one, i think you might be better making a new thread in the main console forum for that one ;-)

 

[blip]

"IMO Sony and Microsoft better be looking at atleast an 8x increase in RAM, if not 16x if they want to turn these things into full blown multitasking-all-the-time computers that are streaming this and loading that while you're playing Modern Warfare 6.

The CPU isn't that important, honestly they could toss in an old Core2Quad 3ghz and it would be more than enough. They need to focus on putting in a GPU and giving it enough memory to really fill up HD resolution with high quality textures and high fillrate, high polys, all of that."

Is this not relevant?

 

[Prophecy2k]

"IMO Sony and Microsoft better be looking at atleast an 8x increase in RAM, if not 16x if they want to turn these things into full blown multitasking-all-the-time computers that are streaming this and loading that while you're playing Modern Warfare 6.

The CPU isn't that important, honestly they could toss in an old Core2Quad 3ghz and it would be more than enough. They need to focus on putting in a GPU and giving it enough memory to really fill up HD resolution with high quality textures and high fillrate, high polys, all of that."

Is this not relevant?

8x RAM may be possible depending on when next gen boxes launch as RAM chip densities are not currently high enough to provide any more than 2GB RAM without the console vendors having to break the bank on their new boxes. 16x will be out of the question imho.

Also, depending on the system setup, the CPU will most definintely be critical to their system designs as next-gen will be as much about advanced physics, AI etc as it will about better quality art assets and higher res textures. Also, if you're putting a state-of-the-art GPU in a next-gen box you need a strong enough CPU running your game code to be able to feed your GPU, otherwise your system will always be CPU bound and all of your GPU grunt would have been wasted silicon (intentionally ignoring GPGPU here).

Looking at current technology trends in the semiconductor industry, and using current available (and on the horizon) PC GPU and CPU tech as a basis, what would you say blip that you think would be possible for a next-gen box in 2013?

 

[blip]

8x RAM may be possible depending on when next gen boxes launch as RAM chip densities are not currently high enough to provide any more than 2GB RAM without the console vendors having to break the bank on their new boxes. 16x will be out of the question imho.

If they target 1080p rendering next gen, then will 4gb be enough?

To make games need to be 1920x1080 @ 60fps with high-res textures that hold up at any distance?

 

[ERP]

in a next-gen box you need a strong enough CPU running your game code to be able to feed your GPU, otherwise your system will always be CPU bound and all of your GPU grunt would have been wasted silicon (intentionally ignoring GPGPU here).

To be honest assuming MS and Sony follow the exclusive ownership of the GPU they have to this point with relatively thin driver layers, culling scenes and submitting primitives really ought not be a strain on any reasonable CPU solution.

Now animating things, physics etc, AI for a lot of characters will still be a load, but I question how much and what the right computational balance is for that.

At the end of the day on a closed box, the best developers will find ways to balance out whatever computational resources they're given.

FWIW I'm still on the waiting for the killer app fence with physics, in principle it seems like it ought to be a game changer, but outside of esoteric "physics based" games I've yet to see it.

 

[Masuta]

Xbox 3 dev kit silicon in production, IBM CPU, HD 7000 Series GPU, 2013 release.

http://semiaccurate.com/2012/01/18/xbox-nextxbox-720-chips-in-production/

 

[DieH@rd]

What are the rough yields for AMD/Intel/IBM 's big highpowered chips at 32nm? Can they achieve something in the range of 90% ?