Sony PS6, Microsoft neXt Series - 10th gen console speculation [2020]

[rntongo]

What do you mean by "32GB GDDR7 won't be an issue in 2028"? It's not like those chips are going to come down in price substantially. If for a PS5 Sony's is spending, let's say, 20% of the budget, it's not like they can spend 40% of it for PS6 just because developers want more memory.

Oh no, memory cost has gone down significantly since launch. I dont think Sony is paying anything above $36 for the current gen console's memory. And the PS5 is retailing for $399 and above. And in any case the biggest cost of the BOM was the SSD this gen(which also dropped significantly) that wont be the case next gen, most likely memory will initially cost more than storage. 32GB GDDR7 wont be an issue in 2028 if anything they will use GDDR7X or any other higher bandwidth variant. 4GB modules are a possibility say under GDDR7X so 40-48Gbps per pin data rate. There were people thinking current gen consoles were going to use GDDR5 in order to save costs but for a console supposed to last 7-8 years it doesnt make sense to skimp on memory for all the technical benefits. Memory is one thing that definitely drops down in cost over the lifetime of a console even when you factor in all the political economical headwinds. So unlike PCs, it makes sense to get the most expensive performant type of memory at the start of the gen and reap the benefits in developer creativity while the cost goes down. On PC you can swap out the GPU for one with a newer faster GPU with newerre memory, on consoles you cant.

So 8 4GB modules on a 256 bit bus for 32GB of memory. With a midgen refresh they could add 2-4GB DDR5 for system tasks but keep the 32GB of memory for gaming.

Now that 3GB's chips are getting produced, I was thinking something like a 192 bit bus, 6x3GB's of GDDR7 (so 18GB of GDDR) plus 6GB's of DDR5 for the OS. Almost double the memory available for games for similar or slightly higher costs.

That wouldnt be double the memory. That would be 12% increase in the amount of memory for gaming. From 16-18, and the memory bandwidth as well would only increase around the same percentage. That hw wouldnt handle next gen titles which would require close to twice of the current memory bandwidth. I also just dont see devs telling Sony, "if you increase memory by 12% that would be a generational leap". 6GB of DDR5 isnt really comparable to the 16GB of GDDR6 memory for gaming currently available on current gen consoles. You need like 2x the current memory and memory bandwidth for a real generational leap that would last 7-8 years from 2028-2036.

 

[Charlietus]

Oh no, memory cost has gone down significantly since launch. I dont think Sony is paying anything above $36 for the current gen console's memory. And the PS5 is retailing for $399 and above. And in any case the biggest cost of the BOM was the SSD this gen(which also dropped significantly) that wont be the case next gen, most likely memory will initially cost more than storage. 32GB GDDR7 wont be an issue in 2028 if anything they will use GDDR7X or any other higher bandwidth variant. 4GB modules are a possibility say under GDDR7X so 40-48Gbps per pin data rate. There were people thinking current gen consoles were going to use GDDR5 in order to save costs but for a console supposed to last 7-8 years it doesnt make sense to skimp on memory for all the technical benefits. Memory is one thing that definitely drops down in cost over the lifetime of a console even when you factor in all the political economical headwinds. So unlike PCs, it makes sense to get the most expensive performant type of memory at the start of the gen and reap the benefits in developer creativity while the cost goes down. On PC you can swap out the GPU for one with a newer faster GPU with newerre memory, on consoles you cant.

So 8 4GB modules on a 256 bit bus for 32GB of memory. With a midgen refresh they could add 2-4GB DDR5 for system tasks but keep the 32GB of memory for gaming.


That wouldnt be double the memory. That would be 12% increase in the amount of memory for gaming. From 16-18, and the memory bandwidth as well would only increase around the same percentage. That hw wouldnt handle next gen titles which would require close to twice of the current memory bandwidth. I also just dont see devs telling Sony, "if you increase memory by 12% that would be a generational leap". 6GB of DDR5 isnt really comparable to the 16GB of GDDR6 memory for gaming currently available on current gen consoles. You need like 2x the current memory and memory bandwidth for a real generational leap that would last 7-8 years from 2028-2036.

Costs did come down for memory compared to the PS5 launch, but at the same time, most other things did go up.
Things like silicon fabrication, aluminium, copper. Then you get shipping costs, a weak yen, nonsense geopolitical stuff, and more. So if anything, Sony will take any cost cutting shortcuts that they can, where they can.

I wrote that in my memory setup, it would be almost double the memory available for games, and it is.
PS5 has "around 10GB of memory available for the GPU" with the rest going to CPU and OS. If you transfer the OS to the DDR5 without occupying GDDR memory anymore, you get almost double the memory available to the GPU for (maybe) similar costs to the launch PS5.

To double the bandwidth or get close to it, they would need to use 32GB/s memory modules, should be doable in 2028.

PS: to add some other thoughts on it, I wouldn't be surprised if they cut costs on storage too, by going with the same weird 825gb SSD of the PS5, sweetening the pill with some tech like AI texture compression to shrink games down.
They will try to shrink costs in any way, and I will agree with it, as long as it's done intelligently.
Using costly GDDR6 memory for the OS has always seemed wasteful to me, so that's an area of improvement.

 

[Nesh]

Did it work?

You mean if the tax evasion worked or if Yabasic on the demo disks did?

About the first I am sure it lost in the UK. For the rest of EU I have no clue.

Regarding Yabasic I remember people doing some programming and showing it off

 

[QPlayer]

Oh no, memory cost has gone down significantly since launch. I dont think Sony is paying anything above $36 for the current gen console's memory. And the PS5 is retailing for $399 and above. And in any case the biggest cost of the BOM was the SSD this gen(which also dropped significantly) that wont be the case next gen, most likely memory will initially cost more than storage. 32GB GDDR7 wont be an issue in 2028 if anything they will use GDDR7X or any other higher bandwidth variant. 4GB modules are a possibility say under GDDR7X so 40-48Gbps per pin data rate. There were people thinking current gen consoles were going to use GDDR5 in order to save costs but for a console supposed to last 7-8 years it doesnt make sense to skimp on memory for all the technical benefits. Memory is one thing that definitely drops down in cost over the lifetime of a console even when you factor in all the political economical headwinds. So unlike PCs, it makes sense to get the most expensive performant type of memory at the start of the gen and reap the benefits in developer creativity while the cost goes down. On PC you can swap out the GPU for one with a newer faster GPU with newerre memory, on consoles you cant.

So 8 4GB modules on a 256 bit bus for 32GB of memory. With a midgen refresh they could add 2-4GB DDR5 for system tasks but keep the 32GB of memory for gaming.


That wouldnt be double the memory. That would be 12% increase in the amount of memory for gaming. From 16-18, and the memory bandwidth as well would only increase around the same percentage. That hw wouldnt handle next gen titles which would require close to twice of the current memory bandwidth. I also just dont see devs telling Sony, "if you increase memory by 12% that would be a generational leap". 6GB of DDR5 isnt really comparable to the 16GB of GDDR6 memory for gaming currently available on current gen consoles. You need like 2x the current memory and memory bandwidth for a real generational leap that would last 7-8 years from 2028-2036.

RAM and bandwidth have always been important for consoles, but times are changing. AMD's new memory tech is good enough to deliver similar performance with GDDR6 and lower bandwidth than Nvidia's GDDR7. Just look at the benchmarks and you'll see.

What's certain is that a 9070XT VGA with just 16GB of GDDR6 and 640 GB/S can do several times more than a Series X with 560 GB/S. Combine all this with a modern CPU and 32GB of cheap DDR5 RAM and you'll see a graphics difference of about 500% compared to today's consoles. This is a real generational leap now. You don't need a lot of memory and a lot of bandwidth beyond a certain point. If I build a PC like this now, I can play with next-gen graphics now.

 

[rntongo]

Costs did come down for memory compared to the PS5 launch, but at the same time, most other things did go up.
Things like silicon fabrication, aluminium, copper. Then you get shipping costs, a weak yen, nonsense geopolitical stuff, and more. So if anything, Sony will take any cost cutting shortcuts that they can, where they can.

I wrote that in my memory setup, it would be almost double the memory available for games, and it is.
PS5 has "around 10GB of memory available for the GPU" with the rest going to CPU and OS.

See this was the first wrong assumption. On the base PS5 its around 13.5-14GB for games, 2-2.5GB reserved for the OS, same thing for the Series X. on the PS5 pro add 1.2GB to the PS5 figures so 14.7-15.2GB. You're also missing one key thing, the consoles are designed based off empirical data from the devs. This gen(9th), devs have asked for two things, more memory/memory bandwidth and more GPU power. This is was what drove design considerations for the PS5 pro and why they didnt even touch the CPU i.e the PS5 and PS5 pro have the same CPU. On the 8th gen(PS4 and Xbox One) devs asked for improvements in disk throughput in the hopes of getting SATA SSDs. Sony and MS went full NVMe high throughput SSDs on the 9th gen, beating even expectations from everyone. I just dont see them especially Sony doing anything than going all out on the memory at the start of the gen. Next gen the memory subsystem is going to be the focus besides acceleration for Machine Learning and RayTracing. They are going to invest heavily in upgrading the RAM and other parts of the memory hierarchy besides the SSD. So 32GB is almost guaranteed at this point. Also Sony doesnt usually add any extra DDR memory on the base machines, and for good reason. With say 32GB of RAM, they could reserve just 2-2.5GB for the OS and leave the rest for devs. Its not a general purpose computing device so no need for a large amount of RAM for the OS. On the pro editions they do add some DDR memory and increase the allocation slightly for games. Its a tried and tested formula thats not going to change. If you're expecting anything like a mix of 18GB GDDR6 or 7 + 6GB of DDR5 memory I just dont see that happening for a base machine thats supposed to run from 2028 till 2035. It would be a disaster, Sony doesnt make such mistakes. They'll simply lock in 32GB GDDR7x at unbelievably low cost due to large production quantities and ride it through the whole gen.

 

[Dominik D]

I wonder if the recent policy changes would make the next PS, Xbox, and Nintendo have "pc mode" so they could be categorized as computers, and they could be categorized as consoles... (and Nintendo Switch 3 as smartphones or tablet?) So it's easier to them to pivot whichever got tariff exemption.

It's probably cheaper and more reliable to directly pay Trump.

 

[Charlietus]

See this was the first wrong assumption. On the base PS5 its around 13.5-14GB for games, 2-2.5GB reserved for the OS, same thing for the Series X. on the PS5 pro add 1.2GB to the PS5 figures so 14.7-15.2GB. You're also missing one key thing, the consoles are designed based off empirical data from the devs. This gen(9th), devs have asked for two things, more memory/memory bandwidth and more GPU power. This is was what drove design considerations for the PS5 pro and why they didnt even touch the CPU i.e the PS5 and PS5 pro have the same CPU. On the 8th gen(PS4 and Xbox One) devs asked for improvements in disk throughput in the hopes of getting SATA SSDs. Sony and MS went full NVMe high throughput SSDs on the 9th gen, beating even expectations from everyone. I just dont see them especially Sony doing anything than going all out on the memory at the start of the gen. Next gen the memory subsystem is going to be the focus besides acceleration for Machine Learning and RayTracing. They are going to invest heavily in upgrading the RAM and other parts of the memory hierarchy besides the SSD. So 32GB is almost guaranteed at this point. Also Sony doesnt usually add any extra DDR memory on the base machines, and for good reason. With say 32GB of RAM, they could reserve just 2-2.5GB for the OS and leave the rest for devs. Its not a general purpose computing device so no need for a large amount of RAM for the OS. On the pro editions they do add some DDR memory and increase the allocation slightly for games. Its a tried and tested formula thats not going to change. If you're expecting anything like a mix of 18GB GDDR6 or 7 + 6GB of DDR5 memory I just dont see that happening for a base machine thats supposed to run from 2028 till 2035. It would be a disaster, Sony doesnt make such mistakes. They'll simply lock in 32GB GDDR7x at unbelievably low cost due to large production quantities and ride it through the whole gen.

Let's clarify the base of the discussion.

On base PS5 the OS occupies 3.5GB of ram, so that leaves 12,5GB for games. Then, you remove the memory used by the CPU, and going by discussions of digital foundry with developers, a typical game uses 2,5GB for the CPU, leaving 10GB for video memory.

So on my example, PS5 has 10GB of VRAM, and a PS6, moving the os to DDR5, has 15,5GB. I was wrong in calling it "almost double" since I forgot the CPU portion

Still, a decent memory boost without breaking the bank. Something to consider is that UDNA or wethever it's going to be called, will be capable of neural compression algorithms. From the Nvidia demo's we have seen, we might still get big increases in texture resolutions without having to increase RAM amounts exponentially.

You think it's going to be a disaster if Sony doesn't deliver big increases in memory? The times of losing hundreds of dollars on consoles is gone. They will make a balanced machine that's sold at a slight loss or at cost. And if 32GB of RAM isn't in the budget, they will simply go with lower amounts.

Let's not forget that 8GB GPU's are still going to be a thing 3 years from now, as bad as that sounds. PS6 isn't going to become the base for development, PS5, low end PC's, series S or a lower cost PS6 will be (PS: forgot the elephant in the room: Switch 2). Generational jumps while leaving behind old hardware is a thing of the past.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You mean if the tax evasion worked...

Yes. I don't think it worked as a strategy then, and you suggest as much. Doubt it'll work now also. Oddly, if bonkers tariffs are applied to consoles, PC will take off in a big way in the US as consoles will just be too pricy. And that would encourage a non-Windows OS, which might see a wider PC revolution. Which might greatly affect what next gen consoles can and will be.

 

[QPlayer]

Yes. I don't think it worked as a strategy then, and you suggest as much. Doubt it'll work now also. Oddly, if bonkers tariffs are applied to consoles, PC will take off in a big way in the US as consoles will just be too pricy. And that would encourage a non-Windows OS, which might see a wider PC revolution. Which might greatly affect what next gen consoles can and will be.

The "Xbox PC" vision points in exactly this direction.

 

[arandomguy]

Oh no, memory cost has gone down significantly since launch. I dont think Sony is paying anything above $36 for the current gen console's memory. And the PS5 is retailing for $399 and above. And in any case the biggest cost of the BOM was the SSD this gen(which also dropped significantly) that wont be the case next gen, most likely memory will initially cost more than storage. 32GB GDDR7 wont be an issue in 2028 if anything they will use GDDR7X or any other higher bandwidth variant. 4GB modules are a possibility say under GDDR7X so 40-48Gbps per pin data rate.

You might have an overly optimistic impression of the state of the industry and the rate of scaling nowadays.

GDDR6 2GB chips went into mass production 2018 with the launch of GDDR6. While the GDDR6 spec allowed for 3GB and 4GB chips nothing of higher capacity was ever announced throughout it's lifespan. That means it took the industry ultimately 7 years to transition from 2GB -> 3GB as the bleeding edge.

I would not assume that we ever see >3GB GDDR7 or similar.

 

[rntongo]

Let's clarify the base of the discussion.

On base PS5 the OS occupies 3.5GB of ram, so that leaves 12,5GB for games. Then, you remove the memory used by the CPU, and going by discussions of digital foundry with developers, a typical game uses 2,5GB for the CPU, leaving 10GB for video memory.

So on my example, PS5 has 10GB of VRAM, and a PS6, moving the os to DDR5, has 15,5GB. I was wrong in calling it "almost double" since I forgot the CPU portion

Still, a decent memory boost without breaking the bank. Something to consider is that UDNA or wethever it's going to be called, will be capable of neural compression algorithms. From the Nvidia demo's we have seen, we might still get big increases in texture resolutions without having to increase RAM amounts exponentially.

You think it's going to be a disaster if Sony doesn't deliver big increases in memory? The times of losing hundreds of dollars on consoles is gone. They will make a balanced machine that's sold at a slight loss or at cost. And if 32GB of RAM isn't in the budget, they will simply go with lower amounts.

Let's not forget that 8GB GPU's are still going to be a thing 3 years from now, as bad as that sounds. PS6 isn't going to become the base for development, PS5, low end PC's, series S or a lower cost PS6 will be (PS: forgot the elephant in the room: Switch 2). Generational jumps while leaving behind old hardware is a thing of the past.

Okay first of all you're confusing consoles with PCs.This is what's making you write wrong assumptions. what do you mean 2.5GB for the CPU and 10GB VRAM? Its not a PC with split memory, when a game runs, both the CPU and GPU have physical access to all 16GB, thats what unified memory means. You have an SoC with a CPU and GPU that both have access to the full 16GB of memory. There is no VRAM for the GPU or RAM for the CPU, its all shared. Just that the OS takes up dynamically 2-2.5GB leaving around 13.5GB for games on Series X and on the PS5 the OS takes up 3.5GB. Only difference is the interleaved memory of the Series X requires certain APIs to ensure that GPU related tasks get priority onto the higher memory bandwidth portions of the unified memory(10GB out of the total 16GB of unified memory runs at 560GB/s, the other 6GB runs at ~336 IIRC). While on the PS5 all data in memory runs at 448GB/s. This works for the Series X because games rarely use more than 2-3GB for CPU related tasks. But that doesnt mean the GPU cannot access that part of physical memory with slower memory bandwidth, its unified memory so GPU has full access to any part of the 13.5GB(or 16GB) allocated as long as the CPU isnt fully utilizing that physical memory with the slower memory bandwidth. Just that devs want to ensure bandwidth hungry render targets avoid the slower parts of physical memory. Again on the PS5 since there is unified memory bandwidth you dont have this issue at all. As well for the OS if needed it could theoretically utilize the GPU to access physical memory allocated for the OS(say for help rendering images or animated backgrounds on the home screen before you play a game) just that the OS is primarily reliant on the CPU. So generally stop thinking of these devices as PCs with split memory, you'll continue making wrong assumptions.

Wrt the amount of memory for the PS6, its going to be at a minimum 32GB of GDDR7 for 4 simple reasons,

1.) They cannot swap out DIMMs for all base console users at any point in a generation. They have to bake in enough headroom from day one. 32GB of unified RAM is the bare minimum since it gives devs ~26GB of truly flexible working RAM for next gen workloads. Ray tracing of 4K assets, neural rendering buffers, background world simulation,etc. Real time BVH datastructures, buffers for raytracing, these are going to eat up a lot of memory regardless the level of optimization for Raytracing. Neural rendering frame gen that kind of stuff, with added hw accelerators specifically for this will require significantly more memory and memory bandwidth than is currently available. Creating large persistent open worlds even with virtual memory optimzations you'd still need at least a doubling of memory for a true next gen feel. You need LLM models for dialogue resident in memory, background world simulations run by the CPU as well running in memory, additional OS features, like instant capture of 4K 120 clips, AI voice assistants, all of this will be resident in memory and eat up more memory.

2.) They have doubled or more than doubled memory generation to generation ever since the PS1. Memory is one of the most important things in a console since they cannot upgrade it midcycle or at any other point like on a PC. PS3 to PS4 was like 9x the amount of memory, PS4 to PS5 was like 2.27-2.7x the amount of usable memory from 4.5GB on the PS4 pre patch to 12.5GB on the launch PS5. 32GB of unified memory is going to be needed if Sony wants to have next gen mesh data resident in memory for higher quality and frequency 4k textures, even with virtual texturing, higher mip levels are going to be needed in physical memory.

3.) Also 4GB dies are already part of the GDDR7 roadmap, 4GB dies have been finalized by JEDEC. Additionally there are plans for 6GB, 8GB dies from Micron and Samsung but realistically 4GB dies are likely what we'll get in the next gen(as of today).

4.) Memory has always been around 15% of the total BOM, moving from 16GB to 32GB at 2028 commodity prices will be much cheaper than the cost bumps they needed to jump from HDDs to NVMe SSDs. Mind you those 2028 commodity prices will go down as the generation progresses.

 

[rntongo]

You might have an overly optimistic impression of the state of the industry and the rate of scaling nowadays.

GDDR6 2GB chips went into mass production 2018 with the launch of GDDR6. While the GDDR6 spec allowed for 3GB and 4GB chips nothing of higher capacity was ever announced throughout it's lifespan. That means it took the industry ultimately 7 years to transition from 2GB -> 3GB as the bleeding edge.

I would not assume that we ever see >3GB GDDR7 or similar.

You're right DRAM density hasnt exlpoded over this past decade but you're missing out one small thing, it was more to due with lack of demand than a technical ceiling. One of the major consumers of these chips are console manufacturers that buy them in the millions annually. And from 2018 up to today 2GB GDDR6 16Gbb dies was sufficient. For example the PS5 was able to hit doubling of RAM from the PS4 to 16GB by simply using 2GB dies on a 256 bit interface. There was simply no customer looking for higher capacity dies so 3GB and 4GB chips never left the lab.

Now if Sony receives information from the devs that they need more RAM, and their target is 32GB for the PS6 they'd need a 384 bit bus. You'd need 12 of the current 3GB GDDR7 chips to hit 32GB of RAM. Honestly it would be quite expensive but not out of the question when you consider the Xbox One had a 384 bit bus. But you'd need extra PCB layers, SoC pins, higher power with such a set up. While with a 4GB chip you'd need only 8 such chips on a 256 bit bus. JEDEC explicitly states this density as part of the spec, only thing they would need is demand from manufacturers like Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix who already have these chips on their 2026-2027 road maps.

If they stuck with current 3GB chips they would be forced to widen the bus width beyond 256 bits to hit 32GB of memory which is needed for a next gen console. So my argument higher density dies will show up this time. Or maybe they will go with a wider memory bus.

 

[raytracingfan]

The "Xbox PC" vision points in exactly this direction.

It will be ironic if Trump's tariffs do more to kill the console walled garden business model than the EU's Digital Markets Act does.

 

[rntongo]

RAM and bandwidth have always been important for consoles, but times are changing. AMD's new memory tech is good enough to deliver similar performance with GDDR6 and lower bandwidth than Nvidia's GDDR7. Just look at the benchmarks and you'll see.

What's certain is that a 9070XT VGA with just 16GB of GDDR6 and 640 GB/S can do several times more than a Series X with 560 GB/S. Combine all this with a modern CPU and 32GB of cheap DDR5 RAM and you'll see a graphics difference of about 500% compared to today's consoles. This is a real generational leap now. You don't need a lot of memory and a lot of bandwidth beyond a certain point. If I build a PC like this now, I can play with next-gen graphics now.

Nope, that wont be enough for a true generational leap, you need to at least double the memory, if you're adding more hw accelerators for AI and raytracing it becomes quite memory intensive, a 9070XT doesnt have the same kind of hw accelerators for these workloads you'll find on the base PS6. It may be comparable in terms of raster performance though. The hw that will be released in 2028 will be markedly different than whats available today. Yes if you got a RTX 5090 today you most likely will be able to play next gen games, but between now and 2028 the biggest advancements are going to in hw accelerators for raytracing and neural rendering and those will require large amounts of memory and memory bandwidth for the next gen consoles. I just dont see PS6 getting less than 32GB of memory with this in mind.

 

[Charlietus]

Okay first of all you're confusing consoles with PCs.This is what's making you write wrong assumptions. what do you mean 2.5GB for the CPU and 10GB VRAM? Its not a PC with split memory, when a game runs, both the CPU and GPU have physical access to all 16GB, thats what unified memory means. You have an SoC with a CPU and GPU that both have access to the full 16GB of memory. There is no VRAM for the GPU or RAM for the CPU, its all shared. Just that the OS takes up dynamically 2-2.5GB leaving around 13.5GB for games on Series X and on the PS5 the OS takes up 3.5GB. Only difference is the interleaved memory of the Series X requires certain APIs to ensure that GPU related tasks get priority onto the higher memory bandwidth portions of the unified memory(10GB out of the total 16GB of unified memory runs at 560GB/s, the other 6GB runs at ~336 IIRC). While on the PS5 all data in memory runs at 448GB/s. This works for the Series X because games rarely use more than 2-3GB for CPU related tasks. But that doesnt mean the GPU cannot access that part of physical memory with slower memory bandwidth, its unified memory so GPU has full access to any part of the 13.5GB(or 16GB) allocated as long as the CPU isnt fully utilizing that physical memory with the slower memory bandwidth. Just that devs want to ensure bandwidth hungry render targets avoid the slower parts of physical memory. Again on the PS5 since there is unified memory bandwidth you dont have this issue at all. As well for the OS if needed it could theoretically utilize the GPU to access physical memory allocated for the OS(say for help rendering images or animated backgrounds on the home screen before you play a game) just that the OS is primarily reliant on the CPU. So generally stop thinking of these devices as PCs with split memory, you'll continue making wrong assumptions.

Wrt the amount of memory for the PS6, its going to be at a minimum 32GB of GDDR7 for 4 simple reasons,

1.) They cannot swap out DIMMs for all base console users at any point in a generation. They have to bake in enough headroom from day one. 32GB of unified RAM is the bare minimum since it gives devs ~26GB of truly flexible working RAM for next gen workloads. Ray tracing of 4K assets, neural rendering buffers, background world simulation,etc. Real time BVH datastructures, buffers for raytracing, these are going to eat up a lot of memory regardless the level of optimization for Raytracing. Neural rendering frame gen that kind of stuff, with added hw accelerators specifically for this will require significantly more memory and memory bandwidth than is currently available. Creating large persistent open worlds even with virtual memory optimzations you'd still need at least a doubling of memory for a true next gen feel. You need LLM models for dialogue resident in memory, background world simulations run by the CPU as well running in memory, additional OS features, like instant capture of 4K 120 clips, AI voice assistants, all of this will be resident in memory and eat up more memory.

2.) They have doubled or more than doubled memory generation to generation ever since the PS1. Memory is one of the most important things in a console since they cannot upgrade it midcycle or at any other point like on a PC. PS3 to PS4 was like 9x the amount of memory, PS4 to PS5 was like 2.27-2.7x the amount of usable memory from 4.5GB on the PS4 pre patch to 12.5GB on the launch PS5. 32GB of unified memory is going to be needed if Sony wants to have next gen mesh data resident in memory for higher quality and frequency 4k textures, even with virtual texturing, higher mip levels are going to be needed in physical memory.

3.) Also 4GB dies are already part of the GDDR7 roadmap, 4GB dies have been finalized by JEDEC. Additionally there are plans for 6GB, 8GB dies from Micron and Samsung but realistically 4GB dies are likely what we'll get in the next gen(as of today).

4.) Memory has always been around 15% of the total BOM, moving from 16GB to 32GB at 2028 commodity prices will be much cheaper than the cost bumps they needed to jump from HDDs to NVMe SSDs. Mind you those 2028 commodity prices will go down as the generation progresses.

"Then, you remove the memory used by the CPU, and going by discussions of digital foundry with developers, a typical game uses 2,5GB for the CPU"

Typical. Not saying anywhere that there is a fixed 2,5GB going to the CPU. I know how shared memory works.

Anyways, can you see just 3 years from now mid range cards getting 24GB or 32GB of VRAM just because 4GB chips are getting fabricated? I don't. As always those high end chips are going to be reserved for professional cards and not for consumer equipment.

Also, if Sony goes for a costly process node, that 256bit bus will be in danger. Cutting it to 192bit would be an easy way to reduce the size of the chip. A 2nm wafer from TSMC costs 30k, where is the budget to spend on 32GB of cutting edge GDDR7?

A base PS5 still hasn't got an official price cut below 400$/€, what we are going to get is probably a very optimized PS5 Pro, double the raster power of a PS5, more usable VRAM without going to something like 32GB, pushing hard on AI features and day tracing to deliver a real fidelity upgrade, all at (possibly) below 600$/€. If games have to sacrifice a bit of texture resolution to fit a real time LLM language model, developers will make that sacrifice. It's not the end of the world.

The most important question remains. Is the technology finally here? Will consoles get to 8x anisotropic filtering? Is humanity ready for a revolution?