Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

At some point hardware ray tracing has to become feasible...that would be the true generational leap.


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Cannot wait Zen+ Hype!

 

Will we leap a generation and head straight to the 3ell? Or will it be called the C3LL?

 

@Gubbi has convinced me with his posting that it'll be whatever can cost $300 after two to three years due to node shrinks.

 

I believe PS5 CPU will be Zen 2 based with 8 physical cores. I won't predict exact clockspeed but I'm hoping for 3+ GHz.

The graphics architecture will be Navi based with some custom features, 7nm manufacturing process, APU design.

RAM will most likely be 24GB GDDR6 on a 384bit bus, allowing ~864 GB/s bandwidth.

RAM prices in 2019-2020 will have crashed from where they've been in 2017 and early 2018, and so don't think Sony will be shortsighted and only having 16GB.

Full BC with PS4 physical and digital games, and peripherals.

4K Blu-ray movie playback, BDXL drive and discs with 100 GB & 128 GB capacity.

PS5 will be revealed around February/March 2020 and released later that fall.

They won't go above $399 even if they have to take a small loss on hardware (it will be nothing like PS3 in 2006),
It will be an easy transition to 7nm+ manufacturing which will bridge the gap somewhat until 5nm is ready, around 2022 or so (2023 even).

4K PSVR and new VR controllers will launch in 2021, and thus a much smaller gap in time from PS5's release compared to PS4 and PSVR, which was 3 years.

 

Why ? AMD already sell mobile Zen Quad cores without the need to disable one core.

50GB isn't even enough to store some current gen games.

Define modest. Current gen needs at least already 3GB for their OS. Why not use a cheaper DDR4 for more OS stuff ? It would be a waste to use the precious 24GB for caching video recording and such (and also add memory contention to that expensive GDDR6 bandwidth).

I mostly agree with the rest of your prediction though even if I still think 24 GB (even fully dedicated for games) won't be enough. But hey still no way to do more than that with current tech apparently. No clamshell mode shenanigans this time !

 

If PS5 is gunning for the True Native 4k experience with next gen graphics then I don't see the gpu being anything less than 15 TF. I think Sony might be launching later than expected maybe late 2020 using a 5nm chip. 24GB of GDDDR6 with 864 GB/s bandwidth should be enough to feed and balance out the shading power. It's not gonna be $399 this time due to Sony re strategy the machine for a more premium model this time thus erasing the PS4 omen of being under powered at launch. Also taking into account how MS would beef up their own XB2 at launch this time as they have learned their own lesson, therefore we'll be seeing a moderately pricier launch but with ample power.

 

Do we have to consider a possible less optimistic roadmap for technology progression? Will 7nm, 7nm+ really see drops in $/transistor needed to bring the gpu core count to the needed amount to realize 15tflops? I suspect only a moderate gains in clockspeeds for console GPUs if designed on 7nm+ or 7nm compared to the 1172mhz XOX due to thermal and power constraints and likely it will be a SoC.

Will we finally see a drop in $/gig in desktop memory to the point 24GB is in the budget for a $399 console? Will memory manufacturers move more of their capacity to the ever growing mobile market? I

 

So my best guess by launch year. All depends what node and its readiness for mass production in a console :

Late 2019 (Late 2020)
7nm (7nm EUV)
10-12TF (12-15TF)
4c8t or 8 core(no SMT) mobile Ryzen variant 2.5-3.0 GHz (3.0+GHz)
16-24GB GDDR6 (24GB+ GDDR6 or 'next gen' RAM if something new)
500GB+ BW (700GB+ BW)



With the various forum rumours already doing the rounds in the last 6 months it makes me think the plan has been to launch in late 2019 if possible and the likes of Jason Schreier predicting the first legit leaks this year just adds fuel....I'm sure his contacts have at least given him a nod and a wink about this!

 

I'm not holding my breath for next gen console on 2019. PS pro and Xbox one x sales make it look like there is no demand for slightly more powerful console. Sony probably had plans for 2019 in case Xbox one x had turned the tide for Ms.

My guess for Sony is vanilla PS4 will keep selling for a real long time. Come next gen PS4 will be the cheapest option and ps pro will be phased out. I'm expecting late 2020 at earliest for launch. I would expect modest flop increase but I also expect more capable hw in terms of what can be greatly accelerated compared to current gen.

 

I wonder if Intel is trying to land console deal? They would be well geared to do that around 2021 assuming their internal GPU efforts pan out. I believe Intel was trying to sell larrabee to consoles back in the day but it wasn't to be due to many reasons.

 

Not disagreeing with your assumptions, but given your timeframes, and Intel have had plenty of issues shinrking 100 Millions of transistors into the size of a pin, is there a guarantee that 7nm will be smooth sailing? They can produce the chips, but yields and clock speeds might be an issue. It might take time to work out kinks in the manufacturing. I know AMD is producing a 7nm vega machine larning card this year, but those will obviously be produced in very small quantities.

 

Late 2019 sounds plausible though.

 

End of 2019 is way to early IMO. But it's fun to play along with the rumors.

14/16nm to 7nm will be nowhere near the performance per watt improvement we got from 28 to 14/16. That's a bit depressing. If they want 7nm+euv, it would need to reach very high volume for 2019 and that's kind of a stretch.

AMD's goal of putting many small chips on an inorganic interposer could help? If small chips have exponentially better yield, it leads to a much lower cost per mm2. So they could make a bigger chip at a lower clock and get reasonable wattage and cost.

Samsung is ahead of everyone else for gddr6 speeds (hynix and micron at 14, samsung seems to be doing 16 already and 18 soon?). Hey maybe they'll do 20 in 2019

For the memory capacity, since they can already do 16Gbits, what I'm most curious about is how soon we can expect 24Gbits parts. End of 2019 sure sounds reasonable.

Gddr6 requires twice the number of controllers if they want to keep the same prefetch granularity. So maybe it means a 384bit would take a very big part of the die. I think 256bit is to be expected on a 399 console.

So I'm still thinking 18GB at 576GB/s feeding a 12TF GPU. With some AMD magic to make it happen.

Otherwise 2020 or 2021 are more likely.

 

Intel is planning on sourcing custom gpus from AMD so I have doubt how performant Intel gpu solutions will be in the future.

 

IMO, not needed. GPU takes vast majority of the APU, so the the biggest chance that transistor errors will appear will still inside the GPU CU modules. Turning off one CU [like in PS4 APU] should be enough.

As for RAM, I hope that by the time PS5 arrivles [late 2019 or more likely 2020], 32Gbit chips will be out.

JEDEC's GDDR6 standard supports 8Gb/16Gb/32Gb chips.

 

It looks like amd is short term solution and intel will use in house solution for 12th gen and later graphics.

 

I could see late 2019 PS5 and, Xbox in 2020, both with specs that'll leave forum posters incredibly disappointed, maybe even more so than they were with x1 and ps4.