Next generation 30GB game cartridge to only cost $1 in 2006?

[PC-Engine]

Aside from that they could outsell it , it depends greatly on supply and cost . If hd-dvd drives are in better supply and cost less people will buy them . Its very simple

There is a very, very slight possibility that could happen but I really doubt it. How can Toshiba sell more HD-DVD drives than HP, Dell, Sony, and Apple can sell Blu-ray drives in computers. :? You should know better than to say something like that.

Look dude there are many computer manufacturers out there. You don't know how the computer industry works. Also you keep taking about this Toshiba only computers nonsense, but don't even think about other computer manufacturers that will include HD DVD drives in their PCs. There are MANY computer manufacturers out there not just DELL and HP and A LOT of them are generic brands. If a person wants to watch HD DVD movies then they have no choice but to buy a HD DVD drive to go along with their BR drive. You make it sound like there's some kind of law that restricts them from going with HD DVD. If HD movies on PCs are important then most people will have BOTH drives in their PCs.

That said please get back on topic.

 

[Bobbler]

This is off topic.

Sorry...

Other people were doing it first!

However, Holographic things seem too far off -- I don't forsee it breaking into the market any time soon. At least not in the same market as Blu-ray/DVD/HD-DVD/CD etc.

I don't imagine it'll be wide spread any time soon -- people don't really 'need' more space. We needed a bit more for HD quality things, but that's only because TVs have gotten to the point where they can actually display things at a quality that DVD is too low.

The speeds need to ramp up very well if they expect anyone to put a 300+gb thingy to use. Who is going to spend many hours recording stuff to a disk? HDD speeds aren't up to snuff -- you'd need a few hundred MB a sec to make it worthwhile for people (of course people would actually need that much info to make it worthwhile to even have one of those drives to begin with). Why spend money on a Holographic disk drive that holds 500gb when you can get a BR drive (or HD-DVD) that can hold more than most people will need for quite a while to come.

It's just too much techonology too soon. 300gb harddrives aren't even standard, or even close. HDD speeds aren't fast enough to sustain a transfer rate that would make a 300gb disk anywhere near usuable for recording (a full disk that is). Etc. There are many reasons something like this isn't plausible in our immediate future. Computer's/electronics evolve slowly, mainly because of the fact that the lowest common denominator is the bottle neck. Unless they plan to build a new way of holding/transfering data (new bus archetecture; sata4 drives? able to actually sustain 200+ mb read/writes) in a computer that is substantially faster then there is no reason for a 300gb disk in the next 5 years.

 

[PC-Engine]

I agree that the need for higher capacity HVC just isn't there and yes it's too much technology too soon. The game and computer market doesn't have a use for it considering the prices of the writable drives.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

No it doesn't have a place in the console forum ? I guess bluray isn't in the ps3 then ? I guess what happens in the market wont affect the ps3 in anway because it doesn't have a bluray drive

PS3's getting BluRay full stop. We know that. It's not gonna change. What has you arguing HDDVD might dominate the optical media market, and mckmas8808 arguing BluRay might, with the same arguments over and over again, got to do with consoles?

It was valid when discussing whether/should XB360 come with HDDVD/BluRay, but that's irrelevant debate now.

The question really is about this holographic medium and its place in the console forum . It doesn't really belong here as there are no upcoming systems using it and its impact on the market wont be felt for many years

I can go with that, though I can also see it as a talking point 'would this be good for future consoles?'

 

[jvd]

I can go with that, though I can also see it as a talking point 'would this be good for future consoles?'

Going by that we should be able to talk about hd-dvd drives and bluray drives and the effects of the market on each other and the ps3 because of its inclusion of a media type in the middle of a war for the next standard .

 

[ninelven]

erased

 

[mckmas8808]

Today, however, Pioneer and Mitsubishi have made an announcement that shatters this Toshiba's advantage. Thus, the two manufacturers have managed to reduce the manufacturing costs for the BD-R (Blu-Ray Recordable) discs to 11% of the initial value, by using the spin coating technology, already employed on a large scale in the production of DVD-R.

Taking into consideration Pioneer's statements, according to which the changes to the current technological lines, in order to manufacture Blu-Rays, can be done with minimum expenses, and also seeing that the prototype released today will have a capacity of 25 GB, it looks like Sony's got the advantage now.

This could be the first nail in the HD-DVD coffin, considering that its only great advantage has just been blown up, and as we pointed out in our previous articles, the Blu-Ray discs were already backed by most of the PC manufacturers. And seeing that the Blu-Ray technology will also be implemented in the Sony Playstation 3, the future of Toshiba’s format seems very gloomy right now.

So they have lowered the cost of the BD-R by 11%. Would that be like if the disc cost $1.00, it would now cost 11 cents? Just had to put this out there for the non-believers.

 

[jvd]

The only problem is what type of bluray disc is this . Is it a single layer ? Dual layer ? Tri layer ? quad layer .


If its only single layer the advantage may be gone

 

[PC-Engine]

Today, however, Pioneer and Mitsubishi have made an announcement that shatters this Toshiba's advantage. Thus, the two manufacturers have managed to reduce the manufacturing costs for the BD-R (Blu-Ray Recordable) discs to 11% of the initial value, by using the spin coating technology, already employed on a large scale in the production of DVD-R.

Taking into consideration Pioneer's statements, according to which the changes to the current technological lines, in order to manufacture Blu-Rays, can be done with minimum expenses, and also seeing that the prototype released today will have a capacity of 25 GB, it looks like Sony's got the advantage now.

This could be the first nail in the HD-DVD coffin, considering that its only great advantage has just been blown up, and as we pointed out in our previous articles, the Blu-Ray discs were already backed by most of the PC manufacturers. And seeing that the Blu-Ray technology will also be implemented in the Sony Playstation 3, the future of Toshiba’s format seems very gloomy right now.

So they have lowered the cost of the BD-R by 11%. Would that be like if the disc cost $1.00, it would now cost 11 cents? Just had to put this out there for the non-believers.

You are aware that they're only talking about decreasing the cost in only one of the steps required to manufacture the BRD right? BTW did you just grab that from a message board and pasted it here? It doesn't sound too professional of a post.

 

[Johnny_Physics]

You are aware that they're only talking about decreasing the cost in only one of the steps required to manufacture the BRD right?

So, are we aware of how much that particular step contributes to the overall manufacturing costs of a BD-R disc or is that considered non-relevant information?

 

[PC-Engine]

You are aware that they're only talking about decreasing the cost in only one of the steps required to manufacture the BRD right?

So, are we aware of how much that particular step contributes to the overall manufacturing costs of a BD-R disc or is that considered non-relevant information?

That information wasn't released AFAIK.

Also don't forget about the hard coating...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Where do you get the idea this is only reducing the cost of one aspect to DVD creation, when the quote says it decreases the entire cost of the disk?

Thus, the two manufacturers have managed to reduce the manufacturing costs for the...discs to 11% of the initial value,

Course, this is third hand info, and may be a misquote of the source, but certainly what' said there is that they have reduced the costs of disc to 11% of what they originally cost.

 

[Johnny_Physics]

That information wasn't released AFAIK.

And that makes it ok to just take a wild guess followed by an attempt to predict the future of the subject based on stuffing random numbers into an equation we know nothing about?
It's like trying to learn algebra in Bizarro World, it makes no sense!

 

[PC-Engine]

http://www.cdrinfo.com/Sections/News/Details.aspx?NewsId=14113

BTW it's not a wild guess. It's fact. Creating the cover layer is just ONE step in the process understand?

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20050610/105654/

And it's not even a DL BRD.

 

[rabidrabbit]

Wasn't that cover layer creation the most costly process of B-R, and the most time consuming when compared to HD-DVD and DVD.
Also if I remember correct, it was critisized here as being the major blow when comparing HD-DVD and Blu-ray manufacturing economics.

If they've managed to bring down the cost of that process to 11% that must be good progress and significantly also affect the final cost of Blu-ray disc manufacturing, right?

 

[Johnny_Physics]

BTW it's not a wild guess. It's fact. Creating the cover layer is just ONE step in the process understand?

Well, I think a text book definition of a wild guess would be to try to put a spin on that story, like you and mckmas8808 did, when we know next to nothing about how the manufacturing costs are split up.

 

[mckmas8808]

Johnny_Physics what are you talking about. I posted the information and then asked a question. I never ever never ever said its 100%. What they released is true, how I understand it is the question that I wanted answered. To me rabidrabbit kind of answered my question is a way with this quote.

Wasn't that cover layer creation the most costly process of B-R, and the most time consuming when compared to HD-DVD and DVD.
Also if I remember correct, it was critisized here as being the major blow when comparing HD-DVD and Blu-ray manufacturing economics.

See what non-bias people would try to do is back up what rabid said and compare it to my findings. And that's what I'm going to try to do.

 

[PC-Engine]

BTW it's not a wild guess. It's fact. Creating the cover layer is just ONE step in the process understand?

Well, I think a text book definition of a wild guess would be to try to put a spin on that story, like you and mckmas8808 did, when we know next to nothing about how the manufacturing costs are split up.

Fair enough, however let me elaborate regarding why I find it extremely hard to believe this will make the disc 1/9th the cost of the previous process.

The BDA has repeatedly said BRD only costs about 10% more than DVD. Now they're claiming it'll cost 1/9th of the orginal claim which puts it about 1/8th of the cost of DVD using a modified DVD-RW dye? Please excuse me while I go LMAO.

So it's one of two things, they were lying about the 10% cost increase over DVD or they're lying about this process reducing the disc manufacturing to 1/9th. So which is it?

 

[Bobbler]

BTW it's not a wild guess. It's fact. Creating the cover layer is just ONE step in the process understand?

Well, I think a text book definition of a wild guess would be to try to put a spin on that story, like you and mckmas8808 did, when we know next to nothing about how the manufacturing costs are split up.

Fair enough, however let me elaborate regarding why I find it extremely hard to believe this will make the disc 1/9th the cost of the previous process.

The BDA has repeatedly said BRD only costs about 10% more than DVD. Now they're claiming it'll cost 1/9th of the orginal claim which puts it about 1/8th of the cost of DVD using a modified DVD-RW dye? Please excuse me while I go LMAO.

So it's one of two things, they were lying about the 10% cost increase over DVD or they're lying about this process reducing the disc manufacturing to 1/9th. So which is it?

I think you are confusing some data here.

The 11% comment was made based on the initial price of production (11% of the price they currently are paying to make a single disc). The 10% number is what they think the discs will end up costing in a year or two (once disc mastering facilities are up and running and have been pumping out discs for a while).

We don't really know how much they cost right now to make, but it's easily possible that both numbers are correct (maybe 11% of current costs ends up being ~10% over dvd costs and they are hitting target sooner than expected? or maybe it still has some way to go). We don't have all the information, either way.

 

[Frank]

About the BR vs HDDVD thing, did anyone mention yet, that it will be quite hard to speed up the HDDVD drives any further, as the disks will shatter if you spin them even faster?

BR on the other hand, allows you to make the disk from something like a very strong aluminium alloy, thereby making much higer and more stable rotation speeds possible.

In that sense, the HDDVD is already as fast as it will get.