Next generation 30GB game cartridge to only cost $1 in 2006?

[mckmas8808]

I give Toshiba a year and a half before people as in consumers and the media notice who the winner will be. I say a year and a half because I think after the next Christmas season (Christmas 2006) HD movies will start to make a huge mark in people homes. And by then people have to make a choice. And the movie studios are not going to sell on seperate media for a long time. WAY, WAY to much money to be loss.

Its better for the movie studios to pick a media soon after the media catches on. You don't want people not to buy your movies just because they couldn't afford two different HD movie machines.

 

[jvd]

so when the media declares toshiba as the winner in a year and a half like u said what will happen with the ps3 ?

 

[mckmas8808]

No misunderstanding, I give Toshiba a year and a half before the consumers prove that HD-DVD is not going to be the winner by using their money as the power. Then the media/press will notice this and report it, which will further make consumers realize that HD-DVD is not the future.

 

[jvd]

No misunderstanding, I give Toshiba a year and a half before the consumers prove that HD-DVD is not going to be the winner by using their money as the power. Then the media/press will notice this and report it, which will further make consumers realize that HD-DVD is not the future.

I know what you meant and I made a statment going directly against it . Since we've both presented the same amount of proof for each of our statments my point was made. That none of us know whats going to happen and claiming a bluray win just because of sony is not a smart thing to do .

Sony has just as many failures as they do successes and aside from the walkmen they haven't been to stellar in the personal entertainment field . beta and mini disc were both failures and there is just as much of a chance that bluray will be too.

 

[mckmas8808]

You're right I shouldn't say Blu-ray is already the winner, but more things are in their corner then HD-DVD's. And jvd try to understand I'm not saying it because Sony is behind it.

I saying it because HP, Apple, and Dell are behind it. You keep leaving that part off. Why do you not give Blu-ray credit for having more support? I know, you know they have more support.

 

[jvd]

And there are people behind hd-dvd also .

 

[mckmas8808]

Of course there are but Blu-ray has more support. And they have more support with bigger budgets and more respectable backgrounds. Go pull up each others support you will see what I mean.

It will kinda make you think twice after you sort through all the companies.

 

[deviantchild]

regardless of validity of the holo method in this case, i just want to congratulate any designer who has seen the light* and focussed on the CC form as an aesthetic starting point for future storage medium concepts - the universal portability of which will be much a draw as the actual capacity of such a medium, with such things access times, durability, reliability all following later

*wholy my own personal opinion

 

[jvd]

Of course there are but Blu-ray has more support. And they have more support with bigger budgets and more respectable backgrounds. Go pull up each others support you will see what I mean.

It will kinda make you think twice after you sort through all the companies.

I don't believe in anything being that cut , not in this world . Its been shown time and time again that the more powerfull or better backed platoform doesn't allways win. I believe both hd-dvd and bluray will go the way of laser disc shortly .

 

[mckmas8808]

Of course it isn't 100% fact that Blu-ray will win, but you have to be honest it does have more of a chance than HD-DVD.

Kind of like saying percentages of who will win.

Blu-ray 70%

HD-DVD 30%

You see what I'm saying.

 

[Fox5]

Isn't the success of bluray and hddvd directly tied into the proliferation of HD tvs? If so, it'll be many years before either one is even a competitor to DVD.

Bluray could find some niche markets though, due to being a higher density recordable.

 

[Bobbler]

No misunderstanding, I give Toshiba a year and a half before the consumers prove that HD-DVD is not going to be the winner by using their money as the power. Then the media/press will notice this and report it, which will further make consumers realize that HD-DVD is not the future.

I know what you meant and I made a statment going directly against it . Since we've both presented the same amount of proof for each of our statments my point was made. That none of us know whats going to happen and claiming a bluray win just because of sony is not a smart thing to do .

Sony has just as many failures as they do successes and aside from the walkmen they haven't been to stellar in the personal entertainment field . beta and mini disc were both failures and there is just as much of a chance that bluray will be too.

You actually compare Toshiba's computer sales versus HP and Dells as comparable proof?

Toshiba's computer sales are a drop in the bucket compared to HP and Dell -- Dell accounts for like 40% of computer sales (something ridiculously large -- this is part of why AMD struggles, no support from Dell). Toshiba can't hope to touch that. In addition, having Apple is a good thing. Apple is a marketing force, even if they don't have the biggest amount of sales. Apple has a very good name and is known for supporting the newest technologies that are considered the 'best'. The above average consumer (the type that will want to choose between BR and HD-DVD) will see Apple supporting BR and think "oh, BR must be good". That's why Apple has some power. Hell, iPod's sell like hot cakes and they aren't really better than anything else out there for the price -- it's marketing.

It's silly to think Toshiba even has a chance if you look at all the angles -- BR is in a much better position than HD-DVD is. Sony has Disney/Fox/Sony movie studios behind it; Toshiba has Paramount? (I just looked at the consortium member list and thats all I saw, movie studio wise). Sony has HP/Dell/Apple/Sony behind it on the PC front; Toshiba has NEC/Toshiba behind it? Sony has the PS3; Toshiba has...? You can't honestly tell yourself that HD-DVD has much of a chance when comparing the companies backing each of them.

You should also know that the vast majority of sales of drives are from companies like Dell/HP/etc, not drives that are sold in stores on the shelves -- OEM is where it's at.

If BR fails it won't be because of HD-DVD.

 

[jvd]

If your going to come in here and state numbers please back them up .


Toshiba wont sell a smany units as those others . But then again only a fraction of those other's sales will include bluray . I can tell u this much. If there is a large enough price diffrence on both the media and recorders i will buy a hd-dvd and most others will too .

If i can get a hd-dvd drive at half the cost or even only 20% less i will buy it and if the blank media is the cost of what blank dvd media is or close to it and the bluray media is more that will seal the deal .

Most consumers will too.

Most casual consumers don't really care about the data storage space. They will go into bestbuy , see the price of the players , go look at the movies avalible and see which one has what they wnat to watch .


As i've said many times , i don't thinkg either bluray nor hd-dvd will end up the next market leader .

What i believe will happen is the two will fight it out and towards the end of the decade or early next decade a optical format will come out that pulls far far ahead of both bluray and hd-dvd and those both go the way of laser disc .


Ireally expect by the end of this decade we will have 100 gig layer discs at least

 

[Bobbler]

My bad. Worldwide sales Dell is 17.9% (it is higher in the US though, I can't find the article I saw -- looking though). HP's worldwide market share is 15.8%. These are 2005. That is 1/3 of the entire PC market with just two companies supporting.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20050118-4535.html



I find it hard to believe that 'most' consumers will randomly go out and buy something like an HD-DVD drive when 'most' consumers don't even go out and buy a DVD drive. The way the market is won is by OEM -- things being packaged into other things (like BR in PS3). I'm sorry to say, but price is not the only factor when winning a war. If what you say is true, that most people will just go and buy whatever cost 20% less since they both 'store stuff' then Nintendo should have won the console war -- all consoles 'play games' (yes I realize it's generalized, but that's just to show that price is not the most important thing for a consumer -- if it is for you then I don't really know what to tell you).

Just because HD-DVD could be cheaper doesn't mean it's going to sway tons of joe-consumers to purchase it on a wim with no substantial backing from any industry.

A format doesn't win on it's own. The best way to win is to include the format into products that will sell regardless of the format (PCs and consoles, for example). This is where BR consortium hands down flattens HD-DVD consortium.

 

[jvd]

I think what your miss understanding is that most consumers at the start of hd-dvd and blurays life is infact hardware geeks . Not the average consumer .


WHo do you think is going to know what a bluray drive is when they buy from dell ? No one that is the problem. Of the people who buy at dell no one is going to pay the premium for a bluray drive when they can get a dvd burner at a fraction of the cost and the media for a fraction of the cost . The other day at best buy i bought 50 dvd rs for 10$ . That is what the average joe is going to buy

As for backing hd-dvd has just as many movie publishers on board as bluray does . So as I said for the consumer that goes into best buy for a hd player for thier tv they will look at the price and the media avalible for it and make thier choice on that . Not if dell or hp are supporting it .

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Good god! Not only does a HDDVD vs. BluRay argument not really apply to consoles (take it to the hardware forum), this thread was about Holographic tech.

Why do jvd, mckmas8808, and friends need to start another HDDVD vs. BluRay debate every other week? It's not like they even bring in any new arguments or points of view.

 

[PC-Engine]

That's another "I'll believe it when I see it" tech, in either form. Mainly because right now they don't appear to be getting support from any other major player, so the likelihood of hitting either their "aimed" price or launch timetable (for anything much outside of a lab) would seem to be low, and their ability to catch the attention of buyers equally low. That it hasn't picked up any real interest yet for something that looks that good on paper makes me wonder about the feasability, offhand.

Though at the moment, I'm sure WAY too many companies are caught up in the existing HD struggle and don't want to distract themselves.

You are aware that Matsushita, SONY, and a handful of other companies have invested and are working with Optoware right?

Well Blu-ray will be in some Apple, HP, and Dell computers. HD-DVD doesn't have that luxuary. People will become more accustomed to Blu-ray in computer WAY before HD-DVD. That's why everybody was making the big fuss about the two biggest PC makers in the world becoming Blu-ray founders. And its also important that Apple is a member of the Board of Directors. So these guys loyalties will be pretty strong.

Dude you don't even understand the PC market, but I'll explain it to you in a very simple way.

Recordable optical storage will only become popular if people can pirate the same discs. For example CD writers became popular because people wanted to copy music CDs and other types of CDs like software. DVD writers became popular because people use it for copying DVD movies. Only a very small percentage of people use their CD/DVD burners for other uses like backing up data from their PCs.

Now fast forward to recordable BR, people are not going to spend a buttload of money for a BR burner for their PC...why you ask? Simple read above. When people care about BR burners is when they can pirate BR movies which ain't gonna happen anytime soon. Standalone recorders for recording tv shows etc. are different topic altogether.

HD DVD readers for movies are gonna be leading the market not burners. Anyway this is getting off topic. HVD will mainly be for data storage like Magnetic Optical not prerecorded movies so no need to bring in BR into this discussion.

 

[Bobbler]

jvd:

(I looked again on HD-DVD promo group's website and saw you were correct, 3 vs 3 on movie studios)

However, there is not a whole lot stopping BR consortium from undercutting HD-DVD player's prices. Hitachi, JVC, LG, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Zenith making players/recorders. Toshiba, Sanyo, NEC, and Teac making players/recorders for HD-DVD (Maybe there is more, but most of the companies on the list I've never even heard of: http://www.hddvdprg.com/about/member.html). I'd say Blu-ray has a decent chance of getting cheap, real fast. Who is going to be making these ultra cheap HD-DVD drives/players?

Face it, Blu-ray, in every market, on every facet, has HD-DVD squashed in terms of support (except movie studios, where they seem to tie -- not sure on the size of the 6 companies backing hd-dvd/br so I can't see who wins there).

I don't know why you are unable to accept the fact that BR has a far better chance of winning than HD-DVD. You seem to be against BR at every turn yet accept HD-DVD with open arms based on the supposition that it might be cheaper when released -- yet you fully ignore support, why is that?

Comparing this to previous Sony (Note: Sony only) standards is completely silly (like mini disc or UMD -- although UMD is actually doing pretty well as a movie media). Sony has the support of most of the major players in the industry, failing would mean that they all failed. The most valid comparison to BR would be DVD (if you are going to make a format comparison) -- which had a ton of backing by Sony and several other companies. Sony and Philips, and Toshiba and Warner were responsible for DVD -- Oddly enough, Sony/Philips and Toshiba/Warner are competing again (this time they couldn't agree). BR/HD-DVD can't really be compared to Betamax/VHS -- they had no consortium's back then (part of the reason for the introduction of consortiums), it was JVC versus Sony (oddly enough JVC is with Sony on this one) -- http://www.consortiuminfo.org/what/. BR consortium has far more resources to spend on ensuring the success of BR than HD-DVD consortium does.

 

[jvd]

Good god! Not only does a HDDVD vs. BluRay argument not really apply to consoles (take it to the hardware forum), this thread was about Holographic tech.

Why do jvd, mckmas8808, and friends need to start another HDDVD vs. BluRay debate every other week? It's not like they even bring in any new arguments or points of view.

No it doesn't have a place in the console forum ? I guess bluray isn't in the ps3 then ? I guess what happens in the market wont affect the ps3 in anway because it doesn't have a bluray drive


The question really is about this holographic medium and its place in the console forum . It doesn't really belong here as there are no upcoming systems using it and its impact on the market wont be felt for many years

 

[PC-Engine]

(I looked again on HD-DVD promo group's website and saw you were correct, 3 vs 3 on movie studios)

However, there is not a whole lot stopping BR consortium from undercutting HD-DVD player's prices. Hitachi, JVC, LG, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Zenith making players/recorders. Toshiba, Sanyo, NEC, and Teac making players/recorders for HD-DVD (Maybe there is more, but most of the companies on the list I've never even heard of: http://www.hddvdprg.com/about/member.html). I'd say Blu-ray has a decent chance of getting cheap, real fast. Who is going to be making these ultra cheap HD-DVD drives/players?

Face it, Blu-ray, in every market, on every facet, has HD-DVD squashed in terms of support (except movie studios, where they seem to tie -- not sure on the size of the 6 companies backing hd-dvd/br so I can't see who wins there).

I don't know why you are unable to accept the fact that BR has a far better chance of winning than HD-DVD. You seem to be against BR at every turn yet accept HD-DVD with open arms based on the supposition that it might be cheaper when released -- yet you fully ignore support, why is that?

Comparing this to previous Sony (Note: Sony only) standards is completely silly (like mini disc or UMD -- although UMD is actually doing pretty well as a movie media). Sony has the support of most of the major players in the industry, failing would mean that they all failed. The most valid comparison to BR would be DVD (if you are going to make a format comparison) -- which had a ton of backing by Sony and several other companies. Sony and Philips, and Toshiba and Warner were responsible for DVD -- Oddly enough, Sony/Philips and Toshiba/Warner are competing again (this time they couldn't agree). BR/HD-DVD can't really be compared to Betamax/VHS -- they had no consortium's back then (part of the reason for the introduction of consortiums), it was JVC versus Sony (oddly enough JVC is with Sony on this one) -- http://www.consortiuminfo.org/what/. BR consortium has far more resources to spend on ensuring the success of BR than HD-DVD consortium does.

This is off topic.