Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[iroboto]

can you give us a hint? I listened to it but got lost into so many business practices mumbo jumbo.

Heh.
To summarize it
A) she referred to Pro and Scorpio as mid cycle refreshes.
B) zen is made to compete in the high margin space, consoles are traditionally low margins
C) as per Totten, the question was not asked when semi custom designs were arriving. The question that was asked was: we know you won't "out" any _new_ semi custom customers, but we would like to know when you Intend to have high margin products in the custom, semi custom space?
She answers with what has been debated to death.
Reading between the lines she is referring to server semi custom (that topic arises as her example of semi custom with higher margins)

So all in all, it does not or does rule Zen. However, I do have some insight into the main goals for MS in the coming year and converting Scorpio into a desktop replacement isn't one of them.

So you consider that with zen being positioned as a high margin product, and console space being price sensitive (she mentions the console space has very little margin for them) you can see an instant mismatch. You can't price a high end Zen for PC and then go bottom barrel pricing for console .

Leads me to my next point. The language around 2018 and beyond was never meant for console. No other consoles are arriving anytime soon, and we have no proof that CPU is the largest limiting factor for consoles go forward (it can be a bottleneck but does it need a zen??)

I think Scorpio will be a upclocked CPU with custom vega GPU.

 

[wco81]

this site confirmed that Scorpio is going to arrive with HDMI 2.1

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=es&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https://elchapuzasinformatico.com/2017/01/hdmi-2-1-anunciado-la-project-scorpio-llegara/&edit-text=

Really surprised they're able to keep the same cable and connector. Thought I heard that they'd need more pins for the increased bandwidth.

 

[Rangers]

http://videocardz.com/65406/exclusive-amd-vega-presentation

A lot more vega slides leaked. Event in a few hours.

So it seems to be a significantly better architecture, too.

Are we sure these improvements are in Scorpio or could they just cram some GCN 4th gen CU's in there?

Polaris 10 doesn't have Vega goodies, right?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

http://videocardz.com/65406/exclusive-amd-vega-presentation

A lot more vega slides leaked. Event in a few hours.

So it seems to be a significantly better architecture, too.

Are we sure these improvements are in Scorpio or could they just cram some GCN 4th gen CU's in there?

Polaris 10 doesn't have Vega goodies, right?

Polaris 10 doesn't have Vega goodies, but Neo does.
And if Neo has an undisclosed amount of Vega goodies, then it's a good bet that Scorpio does too.
Apparently there never was any 2*FP16 GCN architecture, so maybe both Scorpio and Neo are using NCU?

 

[iroboto]

Polaris 10 doesn't have Vega goodies, but Neo does.
And if Neo has an undisclosed amount of Vega goodies, then it's a good bet that Scorpio does too.
Apparently there never was any 2*FP16 GCN architecture, so maybe both Scorpio and Neo are using NCU?

I imagine there isn't much reason to wait a whole year for a few more CUs (going from 4.2 to 6)
The other features in those slides are worth waiting for and round out their dx12 strategy.
I finally see CR in those slides!!!!

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I imagine there isn't much reason to wait a whole year for a few more CUs (going from 4.2 to 6)

Not just more CUs. There's probably more TMUs, 50% more ROPs using a 384bit bus, maybe more/different CPU cores at higher clocks.

It's definitely a substantially larger chip, so the one-year wait may be just related to FinFet waffer costs and yields, which in turn dictate how long it would take to start making the SoC at a more decent price.

And/or Microsoft could just have started to work on Scorpio quite a bit later than when Sony started to work on Neo.
The Xbox division did go through a big management turnaround, after all.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

And/or Microsoft could just have started to work on Scorpio quite a bit later than when Sony started to work on Neo.
The Xbox division did go through a big management turnaround, after all.

Unlikely, as they stated they could have launched a console this year with roughly the same capabilities as the PS4-P if they wanted, but they wanted something more than that so pushed things off until next year.

The upgraded HDMI spec is likely one of those things that they really wanted to make sure the console had and that only recently got ratified. Likewise the large bump in capabilities likely wouldn't have been feasible with what was available this year. At least not without the SOC being very large, very expensive, and very power hungry (difficult to cool quietly in a console sized machine).

Regards,
SB

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Unlikely, as they stated they could have launched a console this year with roughly the same capabilities as the PS4-P if they wanted, but they wanted something more than that so pushed things off until next year.

Oh if they said so then it must be true. We must really take every single thing everyone from Microsoft says at 100% face value, obviously.
Because if the real answer was "we were too disorganized and busy picking up after the humongous pile of shit our predecessors did in 2013 to release a mid-gen console in 2016" then they would totally say that.

Likewise the large bump in capabilities likely wouldn't have been feasible with what was available this year. At least not without the SOC being very large, very expensive, and very power hungry (difficult to cool quietly in a console sized machine).

For a 2017 release they're most probably using 16FF (10nm will be gobbled up by apple and samsung for their phone SoCs) so the SoC will be just as large as if it would have been produced in mid-2016 alongside the Xbone S chip.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Oh if they said so then it must be true. We must really take every single thing everyone from Microsoft says at 100% face value, obviously.
Because if the real answer was "we were too disorganized and busy picking up after the humongous pile of shit our predecessors did in 2013 to release a mid-gen console in 2016" then they would totally say that.

That versus, "I just pulled something out of my rear end because I don't think MS can do anything good." I think I'll go with Microsoft's statements.

Regards,
SB

 

[iroboto]

Oh if they said so then it must be true. We must really take every single thing everyone from Microsoft says at 100% face value, obviously.
Because if the real answer was "we were too disorganized and busy picking up after the humongous pile of shit our predecessors did in 2013 to release a mid-gen console in 2016" then they would totally say that.



For a 2017 release they're most probably using 16FF (10nm will be gobbled up by apple and samsung for their phone SoCs) so the SoC will be just as large as if it would have been produced in mid-2016 alongside the Xbone S chip.

It's the same supplier, not hard to imagine a store selling the same things to customers.

They did also mention that Scorpio was in development the same time XBO S was, they just needed to wait one year out.

Lots of reasons to hold back that one year imo, especially as we learn more. Holding back for a cut down vega with some xbox customizations and hdmi 2.1 is certainly more feasible than Zen.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

That versus, "I just pulled something out of my rear end because I don't think MS can do anything good." I think I'll go with Microsoft's statements.

Regards,
SB

Xbox's division turnaround in the management was pulled from my rear end?

http://archive.is/NdAXM
http://news.xbox.com/2014/03/31/xbox-one-a-new-day-at-xbox/

Did you count the number of months the xbox division was kept without a de facto leader? From July 8 2013 to March 2014.

And please tone down the trolling extremist defensive mode a bit.
Stating the management turnaround possibly caused a delay in the half-generation release is far from "I don't think MS can do anything good".
What a ridiculous thing to say.

 

[iroboto]

Xbox's division turnaround in the management was pulled from my rear end?

http://archive.is/NdAXM
http://news.xbox.com/2014/03/31/xbox-one-a-new-day-at-xbox/

Did you count the number of months the xbox division was kept without a de facto leader? From July 8 2013 to March 2014.

And please tone down the trolling extremist defensive mode a bit.
Stating the management turnaround possibly caused a delay in the half-generation release is far from "I don't think MS can do anything good".
What a ridiculous thing to say.

To be fair to SB, Xbox released Nov 20something, 2013. This management turn around started 4 months after launch.
Then at E3 they announced both One S and Scorpio.
Considering MS desperation to get away from the "One" brand, one could easily see them actually pulling off what Sony did and try to re-launch their brand entirely with a better system.
The move to Scorpio though, shows a bit more patience and planning imo, this was announced the same day as One S and they had no idea how well One S was going to sell.
Nothing from the information provided to us indicates a failure to launch.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

To be fair to SB, Xbox released Nov 20something, 2013. This management turn around started 4 months after launch.
Then at E3 they announced both One S and Scorpio.
Considering MS desperation to get away from the "One" brand, one could easily see them actually pulling off what Sony did and try to re-launch their brand entirely with a better system.
The move to Scorpio though, shows a bit more patience and planning imo, this was announced the same day as One S and they had no idea how well One S was going to sell.

This is all true and all I did was list a couple more of possible reasons why Scorpio didn't release late last year (1 - wait until 16FF is more affordable and has higher yields for larger chips; 2 - management turnaround most probably did result in delays).
Per contrary to @Silent_Buddha 's statements, Scorpio is most probably not waiting for a new process node, and Scorpio will hardly ever be able to render at 4K60 so putting the whole console release on hold because of HDMI 2.1 (which is only required for 4K120 or 8K60) makes no sense. An incremental update do Scorpio could introduce that, just as Xbone S introduced HDMI 2.0, or how Zephyr quietly introduced HDMI from the original's RGB component connections.

Nothing from the information provided to us indicates a failure to launch.

No one used the word failure. I have no doubt that Scorpio was planned to release in 2017 early in its planning stages.
But if Microsoft could have stolen the thunder from PS4 Pro for 2016's holiday season, they would have.

 

[AlNom]

Wonder how big the L2 cache will get for Vega.

 

[Nisaaru]

It's definitely a substantially larger chip, so the one-year wait may be just related to FinFet waffer costs and yields, which in turn dictate how long it would take to start making the SoC at a more decent price.

I don't think optimizing the price at the FAB to squeeze out the last few pennies really matters during the launch window. Think about how much money MS had to put into the disappointing XB1 launch to at least turn this slightly around to the perception of its shrunken market. Compared to that a few USD more mean nothing.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I don't think optimizing the price at the FAB to squeeze out the last few pennies really matters during the launch window. Think about how much money MS had to put into the disappointing XB1 launch to at least turn this slightly around to the perception of its shrunken market. Compared to that a few USD more mean nothing.

As more foundries adopt 16FF and with the process becoming more mature and achieving significantly higher yields, especially for large chips, you can bet we're not talking about a few pennies.
http://electroiq.com/blog/2015/05/moores-law-to-keep-on-28nm/

IIRC, base cost for Durango and Liverpool SoCs was well over $100 in 2013 each. This is a >10% price difference from waffer cost alone, not mentioning yields.

 

[iroboto]

This is all true and all I did was list a couple more of possible reasons why Scorpio didn't release late last year (1 - wait until 16FF is more affordable and has higher yields for larger chips; 2 - management turnaround most probably did result in delays).
Per contrary to @Silent_Buddha 's statements, Scorpio is most probably not waiting for a new process node, and Scorpio will hardly ever be able to render at 4K60 so putting the whole console release on hold because of HDMI 2.1 (which is only required for 4K120 or 8K60) makes no sense. An incremental update do Scorpio could introduce that, just as Xbone S introduced HDMI 2.0, or how Zephyr quietly introduced HDMI from the original's RGB component connections.

Perhaps. I'm unsure how many HDMI 2.0 devices can be firmware flashed to 2.1
Adaptive V-Sync does come across as a nice feature to have for gamers, regardless of 4K@120.

But once again, my focus would be on Vega. I don't think 4Pro has all the features that Vega does, nor the architecture.
And once again, as the owners and caretakers of DX12 would they really be okay with shipping a console without CR and ROV?

No one used the word failure. I have no doubt that Scorpio was planned to release in 2017 early in its planning stages.
But if Microsoft could have stolen the thunder from PS4 Pro for 2016's holiday season, they would have.

Fair enough, delay is not failure. But I don't agree with MS wanting to steal Sony's thunder in 2016. They've already lost this generation. Right now MS is playing the long game (not much of a choice), and trying to crash Sony's party last year (with a weaker and less competent system) would be short sighted and pointless. AFAIK, Xbox division is in deep red, but the revenue from XBLG keeps them afloat - taking short sighted moves could lose you subscriptions, and I just don't see that as being in their favour at the moment. Keeping XBO in the black means a lot more than taking the crown from Sony (for a few months)

 

[whome0]

This is all true and all I did was list a couple more of possible reasons why Scorpio didn't release late last year (1 - wait until 16FF is more affordable and has higher yields for larger chips; 2 - management turnaround most probably did result in delays).
Per contrary to @Silent_Buddha 's statements, Scorpio is most probably not waiting for a new process node, and Scorpio will hardly ever be able to render at 4K60 so putting the whole console release on hold because of HDMI 2.1 (which is only required for 4K120 or 8K60) makes no sense.

I think only real console gaming related issue in HDMI 2.1 specs is Variable Refresh Rate(VRR) feature. Consumers do need a new tv or pc monitor display to use it and don't think we see any for a while. VRR would help console games a lot providing a middle ground between constant bad fps drops and solid 60fps.

 

[iroboto]

Hate feeding 'the beast' ? (LOL)
But AMD CES booth picture in link.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=227709507&postcount=6133

Once again showing that Scorpio slide beside the Vega&Ryzen box

 

[Jubei]

I dont think PS4Pro lacking certain Vega features means they were not available in that timeframe but rather that Sony needed to maintain compatibility with PS4. So it doesnt make much sense for Microsoft to launch holiday 2017 because they are waiting for a GPU that will be commercially available Q1 2017 (but was available for Sony to release in Q4 2016)