Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony on the other hand has for decades now established a 6-8 year console cycle which they are now moving to a 3 year console cycle.

It's not a three year console cycle. As long as you continue to perceive as at such, you'll continue to misinterpret what's going on. With a console cycle, everyone wants the new machine. With PS4Pro, it's optional. Chances are the vast majority of PS4 owners aren't interested. So it's really business as usual, only with a new optional option for a subset of gamers.

 

[AzBat]

I think the PS4 Po price @ $400 shows that Sony is serious about matching or exceeding their existing market. I think chances are that the mass majority of PS4 owners will be interested. The $400 price will be too tempting to ignore. Had they priced it higher than $400, then you might have had a point.

Tommy McClain

 

[bunge]

As an existing PS4 user I'm not really interested. I want the XBOS...for less money. I want Scorpio...today. I'd take a Pro...but not for a year at which point it'll be a weaker Scorpio at a better price. Scorpio will be too expensive for me for the trailing end of a generation and the Pro at that point won't be as compelling.

Give me it all and for less than $200 USD. Lol. I'll probably end up with a PS4 Slim when it's below $250. :/

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think chances are that the mass majority of PS4 owners will be interested.

Why? What are the benefits? Even if the games are improved at 1080p, are they improved $200+ worth (factoring in PS4 sale/trade in)? My personal opinion is not for the mainstream.

 

[Rikimaru]

Give me it all and for less than $200 USD. Lol. I'll probably end up with a PS4 Slim when it's below $250. :/

PS4 Slim will never be below $250 with mechanical HDD like PS3 never was. If only SSD will be super cheap in the future.

 

[Clukos]

Curious to see what the price of the scorpio will be. I think pricing it more than $100 over the ps pro will be suicide so i'm guessing $499 if the price of the ps pro remains at $399 or $449 if the price drops next fall to $349.

 

[temesgen]

1) your using markets with clearly established upgrade cycles that have existed for decades. Buying a new phone ever 2 years or so is engrained in the market because of how contracts work. New leases let you upgrade each year now. TV's people buy with new tech in the market. Those who bought hd tvs in the late 2000s will be ready to transition to 4k a decade later.

Sony on the other hand has for decades now established a 6-8 year console cycle which they are now moving to a 3 year console cycle. Its a large move by them

As for your last point. Of course Sony could be the next sega and flood the market with a new system every other year and have a sega cd to 32x to Saturn transition and be done as a company

Since you brought up cell phones, as rabid as some Apple fans are they rarely brag about the spec advantage that next years phone has over something being released this year...

Both 32X and Sega CD had games which were not available on Genesis, ironically that is more similar to the approach MS is taking with Scorpio..... launching new hardware relatively late in the cycle with the risk being that potentially greater differentiation will be available if they had simply waited.

PS4 and PS4 Pro play the exact same games there is not an adjustment to Sony's console cycle...... PS4 Pro provides a PS4 experience for 4k capable displays and possibly a better solution for PSVR which has yet to be quantified. In any case someone who owns a 1080P display have little reason to concern themselves with PS4 Pro.

A better analogy to PS4 Pro would be the introduction of HDMI capable 360 hardware later in the 360 life cycle which provided hardware that matched the display technology that many were upgrading to during that hardware cycle. HDMI complaint 360 hardware did not have games that were not available on core 360 hardware but HDMI did provide a superior visual experience. That is what we have here from Sony.

MS is the platform holder you should be upset with if your comments are to be taken seriously.

 

[goonergaz]

but 6 months from Scorpio is 2018 not 2019th and you clearly said 6 months in your post. Even 2019 that's 3 systems in 6 years.

How many times? I said what's stopping Sony revealing PS5 6 months after Scorpio is 2018, 'coming next year' will be 2019. I even said 'if it worked for MS not showing anything sony could do the same' ie reveal a PS5 18mths before release.
FYI Revealing is not the same as releasing
revealing
rɪˈviːlɪŋ/
adjective

1. making interesting or significant information known, especially of a personal nature.

As I said, please read my posts before knocking them.

3 separate systems each with different capabilities within 6 years of each other. Ps4 in 2013 , Ps4 Plus in 2016 and Ps whatever in 2019 . That's extremely quick and my point stands

Whenever they release PS5 they will have to support 3 anyway, the thing is that PS4 & PS4 Pro are close enough to not be like supporting 2 completely different machines...but it wouldn't surprise me if devs dropped PS4 before PS4 Pro

 

[temesgen]

How many times? I said what's stopping Sony revealing PS5 6 months after Scorpio is 2018, 'coming next year' will be 2019. I even said 'if it worked for MS not showing anything sony could do the same' ie reveal a PS5 18mths before release.
FYI Revealing is not the same as releasing
revealing
rɪˈviːlɪŋ/
adjective

1. making interesting or significant information known, especially of a personal nature.

As I said, please read my posts before knocking them.



Whenever they release PS5 they will have to support 3 anyway, the thing is that PS4 & PS4 Pro are close enough to not be like supporting 2 completely different machines...but it wouldn't surprise me if devs dropped PS4 before PS4 Pro

PS4 isn't getting dropped before Pro because it's fundamentally the same platform, the games are the same across the line, the only difference is resolution. False fanboy narrative aside Pro support is slim and core PS4 support, they all coexist in the same ecosystem.

Eastman is misstating the intended role of Pro to make it appear that Sony is releasing new platforms every three years which is not true. Implicit in making a Pro game is making a PS4 game which ironically if his complaint is to taken seriously suggest Scorpio is anti-consumer device potentially dumping half-step iterations every year and destroying the market and consumer sentiments.

Of course that can't be true about Scorpio, it's totally going to burn Sony.....

 

[goonergaz]

PS4 isn't getting dropped before Pro because it's fundamentally the same platform, the games are the same across the line, the only difference is resolution. False fanboy narrative aside Pro support is slim and core PS4 support, they all coexist in the same ecosystem.

I do agree, it's just that PS4 will be showing signs of struggling before Pro due to the extra grunt and (potentially) devs (may) support it longer if the sales are good enough to make it worthwhile. A bit like the usual generation cross-over where last gen is dropped after (say) 1 year (for big AAA titles), maybe Pro will stretch that for games that aren't pushing the new consoles so hard.

 

[manux]

How many times? I said what's stopping Sony revealing PS5 6 months after Scorpio is 2018, 'coming next year' will be 2019.

Any significant update over scorpio would require either ridiculously high power consumption or waiting until 10nm or better manufacturing process is available. Likely both amd and nvidia target 10nm for some good upgrades to their gpu's. How gpu designers timeschedules align with 10nm manufacturing capacity would greatly affect earliest possible launch timeframe for next iteration/generation of consoles after scorpio.

To make it interesting both sony and microsoft have same options available design and manufacturing wise. This is kind of a cold war where possibly just trying to complete with higher spec hw doesn't really pay off in profits.

I think the biggest unkown could come from not maintaining backwards compatibility. It might be possible to create new generation of consoles on 10nm that are much better and less limited design than something that stays backwards compatible. Would it make good business to make the absolutely best possible console or more limited console with backwards compatibility?

Looking at the jump from 28nm to 16nm the gain wasn't too high. If 10nm transition is similar it might be difficult to cram much more than 8-10TFlop GPU within similar power envelope ps4 had at launch. Of course that 10TFlop would be much better utilized than flops on old consoles due to efficiences gained in better hw design but still the raw specs might not be very high...

I think scorpio is great addition to console family. It will be interesting to see which consoles consumers prefer. There is great choice from cheapest slim to the unknown known of scorpio.

 

[Rikimaru]

AMD skips 10nm. 14nm would be long-living one like 28nm. 10nm like 20nm.

I'd say until 7nm + low cost HBM new gen is not rational.

 

[goonergaz]

Any significant update over scorpio would require either ridiculously high power consumption or waiting until 10nm or better manufacturing process is available. Likely both amd and nvidia target 10nm for some good upgrades to their gpu's. How gpu designers timeschedules align with 10nm manufacturing capacity would greatly affect earliest possible launch timeframe for next iteration/generation of consoles after scorpio.

To make it interesting both sony and microsoft have same options available design and manufacturing wise. This is kind of a cold war where possibly just trying to complete with higher spec hw doesn't really pay off in profits.

I think the biggest unkown could come from not maintaining backwards compatibility. It might be possible to create new generation of consoles on 10nm that are much better and less limited design than something that stays backwards compatible. Would it make good business to make the absolutely best possible console or more limited console with backwards compatibility?

Looking at the jump from 28nm to 16nm the gain wasn't too high. If 10nm transition is similar it might be difficult to cram much more than 8-10TFlop GPU within similar power envelope ps4 had at launch. Of course that 10TFlop would be much better utilized than flops on old consoles due to efficiences gained in better hw design but still the raw specs might not be very high...

I think scorpio is great addition to console family. It will be interesting to see which consoles consumers prefer. There is great choice from cheapest slim to the unknown known of scorpio.

Cheers for the in depth reply. It's way over my head but appreciated.

I suggest GPU is just one aspect, as has been suggested Scorpio will be held back by being compatible with XBO - Sony could cut ties, double RAM and stick in a decent CPU along with an even better bandwidth in 2019/20 I suspect. I cetainly think they can offer a reasonable and upgrade over Scorpio.

 

[fehu]

GloFo is preparing both 10/7nmFF and 12nmSOI

 

[bgroovy]

Well guess another way to think about it is: What are the chances Microsoft uses Jaguar again in Scorpio? I guess it's possible...It would have to be the same as PS4 Pro though right? They couldn't clock it higher than 2.1GHz?

Scorpio has been specially described by MS as having 8 CPU cores. The idea that it will have a 4 core Zen is pure fanboy wishful thinking. Now that we know for a fact there is a 14/16nm version of Jaguar there's little reason to expect anything different in Scorpio.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Scorpio has been specially described by MS as having 8 CPU cores. The idea that it will have a 4 core Zen is pure fanboy wishful thinking. Now that we know for a fact there is a 14/16nm version of Jaguar there's little reason to expect anything different in Scorpio.

That it will have Jaguar cores is just as much wishful thinking as it having Zen cores. The fact is, nobody but the people working on Project Scorpio know what they are using. People speculating on what is in it, is just that - speculation.

Regards,
SB

 

[Nisaaru]

Scorpio has been specially described by MS as having 8 CPU cores. The idea that it will have a 4 core Zen is pure fanboy wishful thinking. Now that we know for a fact there is a 14/16nm version of Jaguar there's little reason to expect anything different in Scorpio.

Why should they need to wait until late 2017 if they don't wait for not yet unavailable GPU and CPU technology?

They could do the same as the PS4 Pro, add a few CUs and release it around the same time but they don't.

 

[AzBat]

Why? What are the benefits? Even if the games are improved at 1080p, are they improved $200+ worth (factoring in PS4 sale/trade in)? My personal opinion is not for the mainstream.

Same reason PS4 outsells XB1 2 to 1. It's seen as the premium, higher performance piece of kit. People want to buy the best of the best. For an extra $100 it's an easy sell no matter if the benefits can be seen or not. We've been arguing for awhile that most people can't tell the difference between XB1 vs PS4 on multiplatform titles & yet people still buy the PS4 in larger numbers just because it has the better specs. Sony didn't just build a 4.2tf monster that's 2x a PS4 just to target a small niche of consumers. It's going to sell big & possibly more than the original by the time this generation is over with.

Tommy McClain

 

[bgroovy]

Why should they need to wait until late 2017 if they don't wait for not yet unavailable GPU and CPU technology?

They could do the same as the PS4 Pro, add a few CUs and release it around the same time but they don't.

Well, that all depends on how long they've been planning to iterate the hardware. I don't believe it had anything to do with Neo specifically, but I certainly wouldn't discount the possibility that they started work later.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Well, that all depends on how long they've been planning to iterate the hardware. I don't believe it had anything to do with Neo specifically, but I certainly wouldn't discount the possibility that they started work later.

Well yes. And Zen has also been in development for years and just happens to be coming to consumers in 2017. Does that mean XBO-T is going to have Zen? Nope. Does it mean XBO-T is going to use Jaguar? Nope. It means it's possible that they might use Zen. It's also possible they remain with Jaguar.

Microsoft had an option to launch a new console this year. They chose not to do so because the hardware that they wanted to include was not yet available to hit the performance targets that they wanted to hit.

That could mean any number of things. The GPU cores required to hit their target with the currently available technology is obviously not an option. At least not without hitting anywhere in the 200-300 watt range for the console. So it's fairly safe to assume that's one piece of the puzzle. Which doesn't mean that they weren't also waiting until late 2017 to include an upgraded CPU core. But it also doesn't mean they are going to include it.

Hence people speculating on the inclusion of Zen have a valid case. And people speculating on Jaguar also have a valid case.

Regards,
SB