Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

Would it have been different if at E3 more than a year ahead of the 360 launch Microsoft had assured people buying the Xbox that if they chose to buy an Xbox that holiday instead of waiting for the 360 that they didn't have to worry about getting left behind and then proceeded to kill the platform shortly after the 360 launched? I think it would have been. As it was, people definitely were bothered that the Xbox's life was cut short relative to the precedent set by the PS1->PS2->PS3. But, since the 360 was awesome, people got over it.

 

It's a little sad that a console with more than 8GB of ram and a better CPU than Jaguar is seen as exotically unattainable for late 2017.

I mean, four years after the X1 and PS4 released you'd kind of hope that a bit more memory and a newer CPU architecture would be realistic. They certainly have been in the PC space.

 

I'm inclined to agree. Just because Sony are releasing an 8 GB, Jag powered system for $400 this year (kinda like they did in 2013), doesn't mean that MS can't release something higher specced for $400 a year later.

1GB GDDR5 chips are nothing special now, and MS could clock them relatively low to hit their stated BW goal. And Zen APUs with Vega generation graphics should already have landed in the consumer space, so lots of the engineering work is already being done.

 

Zen is much larger than Jaguar cores. 384 bus is big too.
I think everyone agrees that Scorpio can not be cheaper than Pro. In $400 Scorpio scenario (very unlikely) Pro definitely could be $350.

 

I suppose it depends on how quickly the new tech and get low on price. 3 years ago for example the PS4 build costs were just short of the $399 asking price. We then move 3 years later and yes the cost of the RAM, BR drive and CPU are lower but the increased cost of the Polaris chip seems to have pushed the build cost close to the original PS4 in 2013. This is part of the reason IMO that a UHD BR drive isn't included to make sure its below $400.

12 months later, do we honestly expect Microsoft to be able to include a more expensive CPU & GPU as well as more expensive RAM and bring it in at a reasonable price, yet still make a profit? I'm not too sure about that and fully expect Scorpio (on rumoured specs) to be $400-$500.

Do we know how much cheaper the CPU/GPU is in the Xbox One S for example compared to the OG Xbox One? ie cost savings with smaller size etc? Also what are the intended costs of Zen compared to Jaguar in the One S?

 

It's irrelevant. Scorpio will be on the same process node as PS4 Pro/Slim, Xbox One S.

 

I fully expect the PS4 Pro to have a $50 price-cut next year right before Scorpio hits which would mean a $400-$500 Scorpio is being pitted against a $350 PS4 Pro that is unless Microsoft does one of 2 things.....either makes losses with Scorpio to get it out there OR releases 2 versions of Scorpio, one this is close to PS4 Pro technically and is close in price, and one that meets the 6TF specs they've already announced.

 

Price is not irrelevant.

 

How confusing would that be?! "Introducing alongside the XB1s, the XB1 Scorpio and the XB1 Scorpio Pro." At which point Sony announces the upcoming 4Pro ultra Edition with 8 TF...

 

There's someone on the ArsTechnica site arguing (at some length) in one of the comment sections that Sony will introduce a new PS4 next year to compete with the Scorpio. Sigh.

 

I wouldn't assume that Sony are selling the PS4 Pro at cost, or that their costs won't go down also.

For reference, MRRP for the 8GB, 5.8TF RX 480 was $239 in July, and that's with everyone's cut of the pie included.

12GB of ram in late 2017 will be cheaper than 8GB was in 2013, and MS won't even need to go clamshell. Their memory clocks will also be relatively low compared to PC cards.

 

Price is not. Cost saving comparison from og xbo to S is.

 

What do you mean by keep adding specs. MS has their specs laid out. I don't think they will add anything new. But we don't know what those specs are , we just know its at least a certain bandwidth and tflop rating. From announcement back at e3 MS could have planed for 8 core zen + 16 gigs of ram + ssd . At that point they wouldn't be adding anything. They clearly waited a year longer than sony because as they said hardware capable of 4k wasn't going to be avalible . I think it will take more than just a higher clocked jaguar + Polaris to deliver 4k and as we can see Sony was able to deliver both of those in 2016 so MS wouldn't have needed to wait till 2017. So whats in 2017 that MS might be waiting for ? Zen which is releasing late 2016 , vega that is launching in early 2017 and perhaps higher ram density or lower prices on ram at faster speeds. I don't see anything wrong with my line of thinking.

In 2013 sony was able to deliver 8 gigs of fast gddr5 because of newly released expensive dram. Fast forward 4 years and I don't think its silly to assume that MS can do the same with 16 gigs of ram. However even at 12 gigs they will still have double the ram avalible for gaming than the ps4 pro. That is a huge difference.

So again I understood you fine it seems. Your saying that IN 2013 gamers bought a ps4. In 2016 gamers will buy a ps4 pro and in 2018 gamers will but a ps5 or ps4 super pro ? In 5 years you think gamers will line up and buy 3 different systems from Sony ? You also think sony will be able to support 3 completely different specced systems ?

And what will the prices be ? $200 , $300 , $500 ? They will kill their market because they will be seen as rushing consoles. Who is going to buy a ps4 super pro or ps5 in 2018 when they know in just two years sony may release a ps5 pro or ps6 or whatever.

I am personaly fine with a shorter hardware cycle. But I was thinking of going from 6-8 years down to 4-5 years. I think the ps4 pro is a little fast while the xbox scorpio is a bit more palatable . Call it bias for ms or whatever but 4 years seems good. 3 seems a little fast. I think most on this forum will agree that 2 years or in your example 1 1/2 years is to fast for new hardware

Right but if your on a 6 year cycle then that puts the ps5 in 2019 not 2018 . It will still affect sony buyers as it will just be 3 years after the ps4 pro. Sony will train users to just wait for the ps5 pro in 2021 . I dont' think 3 years is a good look esp if sony abandons the ps4 pro quickly.

I think for Sony if the pro fails they would best double down on the ps4. Drive costs down as low as they could on the slim and ride out the generation they have a large installed base. Wait till 2020 or 2021 and then launch a true ps5

 

Not to mention that the MRRP for the 4gig rx 480 was $200. So a $40 difference for 4gigs of ram and faster clocks on a premium version of the sku. So that means the cost of adding 4 gigs of ram for the rx 480 was less than $40 for everyone to make the same profits.

12 gigs is a lock I believe , 16 gigs is what i'm hoping for . But 12 gigs of ram minus 4 gigs for apps leaves them with 8 gigs for games. The xbox one and ps4/pro would be 8 gigs with 4 gigs blocked for apps. So 4 gigs for games. Xbox scorpio would have double the ram for games.

 

Everything is wrong. MS caught off guard with PS Neo refresh. Maybe they even have not planned mid-cycle refresh if not Sony.

16 gigs is not possible with 384 bit bus.
With consoles companies try to save every cent.

 

Sure, but maintaining goodwill by continuing to support a system you've effectively replaced, costs actual money.

If Scorpio takes off out of the gate it's still going to be dwarfed by the Xbox One userbase, unless the majority of people with an Xbox One or Xbox One S upgrade their hardware and those older Xboxen(!?!) drop out of use, i.e. aren't resold to somebody else who uses them.

And this is topic that gets some discussion every so often and I usually post that I continue to be a little disappointed that leaps in CPU power (debatable just how much this gen, compared to last) fail to get uses in game changing ways but games are looking better than ever and it's not just graphics, animation in some games is seriously uncanny valley level and physics are sooooo much better. Nobody plays Fallout 4 for it's physics and excepting it does go a bit loopy from time to time, the physical simulation of different objects interacting is a order of magnitude better than lastgen Elder Scrolls games, including Skyrim on PC.

This is true so it'll be interesting to see how Scorpio plans to deal with the CPU side of the equation given the ambitious technical goals.

Some games maybe, I don't see UWP flourishing while Microsoft lock the technology behind their store on Windows.

 

IHS market says

The new CPU device in the Xbox One S, supplied by AMD is now fabricated by TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) using a 16 nanometer (nm) “FinFET” process, rather than the previous standard of 28nm technology. While this process resulted in a “die shrink” at this early stage it’s typical to have a lower yield rate, which has been built into the estimate of $99 versus the previous device cost of $76. “As the production of this device matures, and as yields rise, we can expect commensurate cost erosion,” Keller said.

 

There is no actual evidence to support this. We actually heard the first rumor about Scorpio *first* and Phil Spencer was talking about the possibility of mid-cycle upgrades before even that rumor came out.