Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]
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trainplane
Newcomer
It's funny that after the Scorpio was announced, MS has sold the most consoles in the US.
The audience interested in the Scorpio will probably largely be the big spender semihard to hardcore gamers. Retaining them is a must, especially in the eye of Sorny's big momentum it has with its 2x bigger install base, and the undenyably sexi Gabe Newell. If they retain a customer for 4-5 years eat $100-150 bill of materials loss on each Scorpio thats still probably +$400 dollars profit over 4-5 years. Either take a moderate loss early on or risk losing the customer and get $0 over 4-5 years.
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the way you worded it . If scorpio takes off out of the gate and sony's sales sink it will still take time for sony to launch a new system as they need software to go with it . So I don't see them doing anything until 2019 the earliest and most likely 2020. Of course if they do 2019 they would be on a 3 year candence which I don't think their fans will like .
I don't think MS will upgrade Scorpios specs for no reason. They havea reason to do it and that's to distance themselves from sony. Today's consoles have 8 gigs of ram with games getting 4-5 gigs . The ps4 pro said to give another 512 megs for games most likely taking from the app slice. If MS goes with 12 gigs of ram they could keep the app slice the same and add 4 gigs to the gaming side. So games could have acess to 8-9 gigs of ram vs 4-5 on sony's side. If they do 16 gigs then games could have 12 gigs vs 4-5 .
If they go with zen they get massive IPC over jaguar . A 4 core 8 thread zen would be much more powerful than an 8 core jaguar even at the same clocks . MS could do a 4 core 8 thread zen with a 4 core jaguar or puma.
Lastly Flops isn't the only thing to consider , MS can increase ROP counts , TMUS and improve compression to make a larger difference than just the 1.8 tflop difference.
We really don't know what they are both thinking. Is the pro a half step waiting for ps5 and will go away when the 5 comes out . Will scorpio be the next xbox that stays for 4-5 years ?
Transponster
Newcomer
They won't, in 2022 industry will largely move on to 7nm(9th gen) consoles, leaving all 8th gen consoles behind, divide between the generations should be very clear, no matter how much effort MS puts in to make Scorpio "next-gen". That's primary reason why Jaguar is the most likely route for Scorpio as well, you can have more power, but it's still not going to be enough to drag yourself into next-gen anyway.
A second gen 14/16nm console could still compare decently to a 7/10nm. The first 14/16nm video cards are better than the 28nm ones but they aren't that far ahead
Hard to say because Scorpio is a year off, and PS4 Pro had not been announced yet. Additionally, it's likely short lived as PS4 Pro/slim is back ahead on Amazon. I think the PS4 Pro announcement is more damaging, because it's just two months off. Also of course, July was mainly won on heavy clearance discounts of old XBox, and August on the newness of the Xbox S.
MS got two months, July and August, that isn't bad as including those they've only won 7 months the whole gen to date. But, they may not win another for a while. PS4 Slim first, then the big juggernaut Pro, loom. It's hard to see where they win another month the rest of this year, or even next year until Scorpio although some kind of crazy stuff can happen like wild discounts.
Heh, maybe but if they keep adding specs as eastmen suggests who knows what the cost will be. Certainly with the current suggested specs I wouldn't be surprised if they made a small loss. Add that to the current Xbox One price-cuts and costs MS has been eating as a result and it doesn't paint a pretty picture.
More than 12gb of RAM and new CPU architecture will be expensive though. Surely MS's launch limit is $500. $550-$600 and it's DOA regardless of how close it gets to native 4k imo. Outside of the US it will almost certainly struggle regardless. Remember Sony is hitting the same price-point as the OG PS4 three years later with a 2.5 performance increase. And they're not even including 4k Blu-ray drive.
I agree though, MS has to differentiate from Pro as much as possible just because of the huge install base deficit they will be looking at by the time Scorpio launches. Could do with the next Halo too because software is king at the end of the day, and Sony will have some big-hitting exclusives coming in 2017.
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What I said was "And even then, what's stopping Sony revealing PS5 6 months after Scorpio launches with an even bigger jump?" - we haven't seen what Scorpio will do yet so why does Sony have to show anything? If it worked for MS it can work for Sony, E3 2018 "please get ready for or 10TF PS5, the worlds most powerful console and first ture 'next gen' machine (etc) coming out in 2019". There's nothing wrong with 2019, that's 6 years after PS4 launch, we already know the CPU is the weak spot (it was weak at launch) so expecting ti to hold up games for much longer just won't work IMO.
What's funny? They just released the slim, obviously there will be a bump from the 'noise' made about Scorpio that will contribute, also I saw some were confused thinking the 2TB slim was in fact the scorpio! What will be interesting is the sales going forward...I expect Sony to take the sales back and in fact sales to start dying (for XBO) as the noise around Scorpio gets louder.
I don't expect otherwise, but time will tell...It would be very funny if Scorpio won't do a native 4k in most titles and will use dynamic 4k or same tech as PS4P
What was the outcome of that console droppage? Far better sales (3x)! So in this case the observed value of 'goodwill' is zero, or there wasn't any goodwill present/affected by the transition to a new platform.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Despite the massive jump in CPU power from the PS3/X360 gen to the current gen, developers haven't exactly used the CPU power to enable better or different gameplay experiences. That additional CPU power has been used to enhance the graphical presentation of games. Heck, from a gameplay POV, not much has evolved from the PS2/XB1 era. NPC density has increased in some games which is enabled by greater CPU power. Physics simulations has gotten a bit better. But in most games more accurate physics simulations don't directly impact gameplay, with the exception of racing games and some other niche games. AI might have gotten slightly better, but in most cases you'd be hard pressed to notice the difference from previous generations.
Battlefield 1 looks to be the first game that takes significant advantage of the additional CPU power since the last generation for something that both enhances the graphical experience as well as changing the gaming experience (destructible everything). But that's what, 3 years into the generation?
Current generation games are limited in their graphical presentation by both the CPU and the GPU. That means developers still have to thoughtfully weigh how they are going to use their relatively limited CPU budget. In most cases, they are going to opt for greater graphical fidelity and in some cases audio fidelity.
So, yeah, just like the move from PS3/X360 to PS4/XBO the additional CPU power from both the PS4-P and Project Scorpio will be used for greater graphical fidelity and/or better and more consistent framerates. And when we have a PS5 and whatever the Xbox is called after Project Scorpio, once again the extra CPU power will be mostly used to enhance the graphical presentation of games.
Hell, on PC you still run into games where the graphical presentation can be limited by the CPU with mainstream CPUs which are vastly more powerful than what are contained in consoles. Some of that goes to the less efficient use of the CPU in Dx11 and prior but even with that waste, there's still a lot more CPU power available.
Regards,
SB
If PS4 Pro doesn't sell to the majority of PS4 owners, we'll be on a conventional 6 year cycle since release for PS5. And for those who bought PS4Pro, again it's not a massive expense if PS5 is BC. Sell the PS4 to get a PS4 Pro for $200. Then sell/trade in the PS4Pro to get a PS5 for $200.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
But in that case, there was no alternative versus dropping everything from a previous "generation" other than PC. And in general, you're either a console gamer or a PC gamer and rarely do general consumer think of one or the other as a viable alternative.
It certainly would be interesting to see what happens if one console platforms offers the promise of all game titles being able to run on at least 4-6 different console iterations (generations is becoming a bit of a muddled terminology) while another console maker plans to only support your games for 2 console iterations before dropping everything and making you re-purchase everything. In this case a "slim" version would still be the same iteration as the console it replaces. Would the former engender some sort of 'goodwill' or do consumers in general really not care at all that every X years all of their software titles are rendered null and void unless they keep their previous console?
That question becomes more interesting as more and more people move to buying their titles digitally. In one case, you remain invested in a platform with every new "generation" while in the other case, you are cut free from your investment and thus have no continuing investment in remaining with the platform and are more free to switch platforms.
Regards,
SB
I'm not arguing that dropping a platform is okay - only that the example of XB doesn't really support that argument.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Credit to Brit over in the PC forum for linking to this. Think it has some relevance here as it has some bearing on whether or not MS can deliver on their claims of 4K @60 FPS gaming on Project Scorpio.
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/...-delivers-awesome-online-arena-mode-for-free/
4K @60 FPS on a GTX 980 Ti (less than 6 tflops and with PC inefficiencies to boot) as far as the author could tell. Also they didn't spend any resources to improve asset quality or animations (some are still 30 FPS like Halo 5 on console). Combined with their previous Forza: Apex release, Microsoft's internal studios are getting a lot of experience with how to deliver 4K @60 FPS. Hopefully DF or someone else will look into this and see if it actually is engaging dynamic resolution at any point on that level of hardware.
The upcoming Gears of War release should provide further insight. Hopefully they do as impressive a job with the PC version as the teams that did Forza: Apex and Halo: Forge.
Recore isn't from an internal studio so I'm not expecting much with regards to 4K from that game, but I'd be pleasantly surprised if that also easily ran at 4K.
Regards,
SB
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/...-delivers-awesome-online-arena-mode-for-free/
4K @60 FPS on a GTX 980 Ti (less than 6 tflops and with PC inefficiencies to boot) as far as the author could tell. Also they didn't spend any resources to improve asset quality or animations (some are still 30 FPS like Halo 5 on console). Combined with their previous Forza: Apex release, Microsoft's internal studios are getting a lot of experience with how to deliver 4K @60 FPS. Hopefully DF or someone else will look into this and see if it actually is engaging dynamic resolution at any point on that level of hardware.
The upcoming Gears of War release should provide further insight. Hopefully they do as impressive a job with the PC version as the teams that did Forza: Apex and Halo: Forge.
Recore isn't from an internal studio so I'm not expecting much with regards to 4K from that game, but I'd be pleasantly surprised if that also easily ran at 4K.
Regards,
SB
Good to see MS deliver on these PC ports. I do believe that everyone was waiting to see console level efficiency on PC and I think we are starting to see it. How many titles are this optimized are unknown though, but it's nice that it can/may/is happening. I'm not sure how to prove that it's DX12 or just a really cut down game compared to its competition.
I imagine with the cross buy and play the next set of games/engines will scale much higher now that they have PC in mind. This could drastically decrease performance for PC rigs, but at least this will give us an idea of how well Scorpio will fare in the coming year.
Looking at FH3 and GoW will be great examples of that, if it does run 4K perfectly I will be uber impressed. But neither of those titles are 60 FPS. But then again it won't matter since frames will be locked to XBO not Scorpio.
All in all, this does bode good news. And strengthens my resolve for a 4K set now. Hehehhe
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I imagine with the cross buy and play the next set of games/engines will scale much higher now that they have PC in mind. This could drastically decrease performance for PC rigs, but at least this will give us an idea of how well Scorpio will fare in the coming year.
Looking at FH3 and GoW will be great examples of that, if it does run 4K perfectly I will be uber impressed. But neither of those titles are 60 FPS. But then again it won't matter since frames will be locked to XBO not Scorpio.
All in all, this does bode good news. And strengthens my resolve for a 4K set now. Hehehhe
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A big reason that Project Scorpio will end helping PC gamers....well at least with regards to Microsoft games.
The fact that Scorpio and PC could end up sharing the same uwp code base and Microsoft optimizing the hell out the games to hit 4K on Scorpio will probably make the PC version run like butter.
That fact that it's running so well on nvidia hardware is good news that their DX12 isn't borked. I think that's definitely positive news. At one point in time I was adamant that I needed to get AMD because they had proper async compute implemented and nvidia didn't. I was also unsure if dx12 was so low level such that dx12 code would have to be written differently per card manufacture. I'm Glad to see that isn't as much of a factor here. This could also branch into another discussion, mainly, could MS choose to switch to nvidia post Scorpio and will maintain backwards compatibility.
Microsoft will likely share the wealth with other developers on how to accomplish it; it is par for the course for the platform holder to assist companies when they request it.
The real test is still yet to come however. How far MS can scale the upcoming cross buy games will have a strong glimpse into the future;
Whether XBO will hold back Scorpio;
How Scorpio will perform At 4K and what settings;
How far the engines can scale in terms of ultra settings, and at what resolutions it can be maintained at.
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They are blowing out old stock to make way for the new SKU. It's really not negative when your new product is good enough that no one is going to want to buy your old one unless you discount it is it?
I don't agree that they will take on small loss on Scorpio. Those days are over for console makers.
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