Japan Sales Thread
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RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
Don't you understand how that DEFEATS the entire premise of your statement?
Your statement was that the 360 sales were attributed solely to JRPG releases and that the Japanese consumer was somehow purchasing new consoles upon new game release, SELLING those consoles when they were done with them and then BUYING new consoles when new games were released.
If that were a societal trend, then there would be a huge market of used 360s that were available. That would mean there would be no reason for consumers to buy another NEW console for the NEXT release because they could just go buy a USED one.
If they are actually BUYING used consoles, so that after you play the NEW game and SELL your console you can't go buy a USED console you have to buy a USED one, the end result is the same.
They are actually BUYING new consoles and the entire premise of 'buy and sell' in order to explain the 360 numbers doesn't hold water.
If Japan Guy #1 is buying more than ONE 360 console NEW its because he couldn't get one used because they were already sold.
Which means all the numbers equalize and there's no basis for this theory that you are putting forth as fact and supporting.
Really. This is basic economics, it's basic market dynamics, it's basic math.
And I'm sorry, but basic economics and math, both dictate that the "Japanese buy new consoles for new games and then sell them and then buy another new console for the next new game" theory doesn't make the slightest bit of sense. Not logically and not economically. It simply can not be true.
I really didn't want to go on with this, but fine.
No, this is the part where you haven't been paying attention, and the part you refuse to address. JRPG fans have been making 360 sales spike whenever a new JRPG comes out. Up until very, very recently the 360 was getting about one JRPG a month. I've already pointed this out: BD was Dec 2006. Eternal Sonata, not a high-profile RPG, was June 2007. LO was Dec 2007. ToV was August this year. We're looking at gaps 6+ months long. Why would a JRPG owner hang onto a console that doesn't interest them? They'd hang onto it now, wouldn't they, with so many of them coming in such (relatively) short succession. I'm not picking on the 360, by the way: I think the PS3 went through the same thing for its larger spikes, including MGS4.
Again, why wouldn't they? Why hang onto a console worth a few hundred dollars when you don't want any games on it? Please explain, since you're so very outraged by the very concept.
And this is another thing you refuse to understand; maybe they do. Japanese people can buy new consoles as well as new ones. Is anyone tracking them? My theory posits that the install base is far lower than actually suggested by sales numbers. ToV sold what, 110k first week, while selling 26k 360s that same week? Maybe of those 110k, only 50k of the 360 they were going to be played it were previously owned. Maybe there were as many used sales as new. Maybe even more! This is deep speculation, and we're never going to really find out because, again, no one's tracking these numbers. But shouting 'lalalala I can't hear you it doesn't make sense!' doesn't really help.
No, it doesn't mean anything of the sort. It means that some people like bundles, like the ToV one. It means that some people have little problem selling their goods but wouldn't buy them used. Neither of these is that far-fetched; I certainly know people who fit into both profiles, though maybe not at once. Yes, it's anecdotal, but no one ever said it wasn't. In fact, all of this discussion is the softest of science, which is why I had lost interest in discussing it.
No one's claiming it's fact; it's a theory. That's why I think you have to control your overreaction. I think there's something unexplained here, and it's really why I think the whole thing is plausible. What I think needs explaining is: why would Japanese gamers (or any gamers) hang onto a console that they have no interest in? If you can give me a plausible explanation, please, I'd be happy to hear it.
I'd love to see this math of yours. I'm seeing a lot of hand-waving and histrionics. A lot of yelling about how IT JUST DOES NOT MAKE SENSE (the Chewbacca defense?). No, actually, scratch that. Please don't bring math in. This is all based on pudding-squishy facts and opinions and really isn't worth discussing any further.
Would you buy a new console for 1 game , sell it and then when another game comes out u want to play , buy another new console.
Or
Would you buy a used console , play that one game ,sell the console , then when another game comes out u want to play , buy a used console instead ?
I would think the second way of doing things would make more sense as your leaving alot of money on the table with the first one. I could understand some people buying a 360 and selling it and then seeing a limited edition one of them and buying it again just to have that limited edition. However I don't see that person then selling that console back after that. I also don't see people buying new consoles over and over again just to fit your theory. I can't believe that there are enough people in japan doing this to skew numbers. Also if the 360 is hindered by this the ps3 must be hit even harder as its had very few big named japanese titles and those also come months apart from each other.
I think both can happen. That's my point. I've said it. I actually suspect that the second happens more often, though with no numbers on used sales there's naturally no way to prove it. I do think that after ToV, after which the 360 actually ran out there was a legitimate upswing in interest in the platform, which is why we're seeing consistently better numbers. And every title released afterwards increases the legitimate interest. OTOH since early 2009 doesn't have that much either I don't think these people will hang onto their 360s either.
I do believe that if one is true, so's the other. I even said so. PS3 JP releases are bleak and I suspect that the '2 million' install base is substantially smaller.
Right now 1$ = 100 yen. Xbox 360 is still in the aftermath of the price drop on Sep 11 with the 19800 yen Arcade and the 29800 yen Pro. So it's reaching the "affordable HD gaming" zone. I guess some more sales spike will occur with Gears 2 (Gears 1 was one of the highest selling 360 games in Japan), but its release date in Japan is still unknown.
The new 80GB GT5P Spec III BD bundle for 39800 yen and making the 40GB model open price (probably 30000 yen) have been announced at TGS, it's no surprise to see a drop in PS3 sales for now. The 80GB model will hit with standard DualShock 3 on Oct 30. Also the LBP bundle with two DS3 is on the schedule for 44980 yen.
ModEdit:
PS3 80GB 39980 yen:
http://watch.impress.co.jp/game%2Fdocs/20081009/scejp04.jpg
http://watch.impress.co.jp/game/docs/20081009/scejp05.jpg
LBP bundle 80GB: 44980 yen:
The new 80GB GT5P Spec III BD bundle for 39800 yen and making the 40GB model open price (probably 30000 yen) have been announced at TGS, it's no surprise to see a drop in PS3 sales for now. The 80GB model will hit with standard DualShock 3 on Oct 30. Also the LBP bundle with two DS3 is on the schedule for 44980 yen.
ModEdit:
PS3 80GB 39980 yen:
http://watch.impress.co.jp/game%2Fdocs/20081009/scejp04.jpg
http://watch.impress.co.jp/game/docs/20081009/scejp05.jpg
LBP bundle 80GB: 44980 yen:
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inefficient
Veteran
The PSP 3000 apparently sold 140,000 units in just 4 days since it's launch. That machine is a monster.
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1219183_1124.html?ref=rss
It's just too bad good games for it are still few and far between. Most of the stuff the PSP stuff I have been buying recently are PS1 games from the JP PSN.
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1219183_1124.html?ref=rss
It's just too bad good games for it are still few and far between. Most of the stuff the PSP stuff I have been buying recently are PS1 games from the JP PSN.
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
A Chihuahua monster. It did 140k this week, it will be much less next week, and less the week after that untill it is at the around the point it has been.
Week ending Oct 17 (19?):
http://www.edge-online.com/news/ps3-sales-falling-further-japan
Is jandlecack still around?
http://www.edge-online.com/news/ps3-sales-falling-further-japan
Is jandlecack still around?
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Except there was a news item that Gears 2 won't make it to either Japan or Germany.
Yeah, that's rather important. We'll see some decent software come out soon, and combined with the new bundles that's going to be interesting. I look forward to Japanese reviews of LBP.
But there's a good possibility now that the 360 won't drop back down for a fair while. It's gotten an aweful lot of Japanese directed software for a long time now and the price is really low. So it's more of a question of how well the PS3 will start selling ...
As for the PSP, it's been selling rather well, and the new 3k model gave it a good boost - for a moment there I thought it was a typo
. The PSP also had a strong software showing at TGS. It's a social gaming phenomenon in Japan unlike anything we currently know, and it looks like other developers are moving forwards to support that trend (FFXIII Versus PSP being obvious one, but also Patapon II supports four player co-op now apparently). I'm curious to see whether or not that will show up in other game-sales eventually - for instance I'm really hoping Loco Roco 2 will be rediscovered in Japan.I vaguely recall I predicted that the PSP would have a second life once DS reached saturation. Will see if I can find those posts.
How irrelevant Japan has become in the HD gaming battle.
Entering this generation, it looked like an important pillar, in mindshare if not exactly raw size, 1/3 of the market that PS3 would have uncontested, making it very difficult for 360 to outsell PS3 worldwide for the generation.
But lets looks now, 360 sold 6k this week, therefore it is on pace for maybe ~25k for the month. PS3 even worse.
These sales numbers are so low they have little effect now on worldwide sales (and in fact what little effect it does have is actually going 360's direction of late), it comes down to Europe and the USA.
Entering this generation, it looked like an important pillar, in mindshare if not exactly raw size, 1/3 of the market that PS3 would have uncontested, making it very difficult for 360 to outsell PS3 worldwide for the generation.
But lets looks now, 360 sold 6k this week, therefore it is on pace for maybe ~25k for the month. PS3 even worse.
These sales numbers are so low they have little effect now on worldwide sales (and in fact what little effect it does have is actually going 360's direction of late), it comes down to Europe and the USA.
A 1.62m lead which is increasing at an average of just under 1m per year (based on LTD figures to last week) will surely have a sizable effect on worldwide figures over the course of this generation?
Europe is much closer - both companies have been squabbling in the press over who is actually in the lead all year. I'd seriously doubt either console has a 7 figure lead.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Well this year PS3 won't pull even close to a million more units, but I don't know it might start selling better at some point, but the numbers it is having these days are something I never though possible.
Japan YTD figures to last week:
[source: LTD figure from last week, posted above, reconciled with Media Create from mid-September from here]
PS3: 866,116
360: 237,483
Difference: 628,633
A simple extrapolation of this figure puts it on course for 800,000 more units this calendar year, not taking into account the positive influence of new bundles or seasonal effects. It does take into account the phenomenal month the 360 has just experienced, and the drying up of PS3 sales in anticipation of the new bundles.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
It also takes into account the release of MGS 4 which is not happening again, but yeah Little Big Planet might actually push the PS3 quite well in Japan, I kind of forgot that... It's still slowing though, if you had done that extrapolation two months ago, you would have gotten much better result for the PS3.
Anyways, How do you get those numbers for the X360 and PS3. The numbers below are what it says behind your link for YTD and X360 has outsold PS3 every week after those numbers.
PS3 647,457
360 159,695
As far as I know PS3 didn't sell over 200k during the last 5-6 weeks?
edit: Ok I figured how you counted them, but there has to be a error somewhere Are those LTD figures you posted in post 91 from Media create also?
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