Japan Sales Thread

[RancidLunchmeat]

Looks like the 360 is short live.... <snip for flashback>

The next two weeks consist of Eternal Sonata and X-Edge rpgs for PS3. So I see PS3 numbers going up to about 15ks while 360 numbers falling to 7ks. Wii will go back up to about 35ks. These are my predictions.

Japan is not like America. They buy anything that's new and they will stop buying it after a week. We seen this trend with software as well as hardware. 360 numbers will go back to 2-3ks weekly by October.

So let's see.

Wii not to 35k, PS3 not to 15k, and 360 not down to 2-3k.

I don't admonish you putting your predictions down, I just couldn't resist the chance to demonstrate your 'short-lived success' comments in the light of 8K 360 sales when you were predicting 2-3k.

By your initial predictions, your response shouldn't be talk of 'short lived' success and making leaps about Sony's support in Japan. Rather, it should be the opposite. Surprise and wonder for the 360 continuing to outpace your expectations by a large margin while the PS3 continues to flounder despite the reasons you gave for predicting a sales bump.

All biases aside, I mean.

 

[obonicus]

So let's see.

Wii not to 35k, PS3 not to 15k, and 360 not down to 2-3k.

I don't admonish you putting your predictions down, I just couldn't resist the chance to demonstrate your 'short-lived success' comments in the light of 8K 360 sales when you were predicting 2-3k.

By your initial predictions, your response shouldn't be talk of 'short lived' success and making leaps about Sony's support in Japan. Rather, it should be the opposite. Surprise and wonder for the 360 continuing to outpace your expectations by a large margin while the PS3 continues to flounder despite the reasons you gave for predicting a sales bump.

All biases aside, I mean.

In all honesty, though, it's hard to speak of success when both consoles are below the PS2. It's just one colossal bucket of failure, only the PS3 has taken the failure lead.

There's talk of shortages for the 360, though I don't think that's what caused the dropoff, I think interest has just waned.

 

[eastmen]

The Last Remenant.

So they might be able to hit another 30k week or so and a few weeks of 10k + hopefully right by the holdiays in japan.

 

[RobertR1]

So they might be able to hit another 30k week or so and a few weeks of 10k + hopefully right by the holdiays in japan.

Depends of reviews and market acceptance of the title, I'd say.

 

[obonicus]

Depends of reviews and market acceptance of the title, I'd say.

It's a square-enix, internally-developed title, even if by a B-team. It'll probably do pretty well. We may not see the upsurge Vesperia and IU got, though, since you could argue that the people who were going to buy these games already got their 360s (if you accept the premise that the ones from when Lost Odyssey/Blue Dragon launched had been resold, and these haven't because of the small gap between releases).

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

I don't understand this 'Japanese buy and sell' theory. What is the basis for this belief?

Logically, it doesn't make sense to me. Even if the Japanese were for some reason buying consoles when titles appealed to them and then selling them off, wouldn't that result in a huge used market? So when the next appealing title is released, wouldn't they just pick up a 360 on the used market for cheap rather than buy a new one?

That explanation just doesn't sound right to me.

 

[obonicus]

I don't understand this 'Japanese buy and sell' theory. What is the basis for this belief?

Anecdotal evidence, lots of used HD consoles in second-hand stores?

Logically, it doesn't make sense to me. Even if the Japanese were for some reason buying consoles when titles appealed to them and then selling them off, wouldn't that result in a huge used market? So when the next appealing title is released, wouldn't they just pick up a 360 on the used market for cheap rather than buy a new one?

That's what doesn't make much sense to me either, but I honestly know nothing of Japan beyond what I learned from Kill Bill. The meme was that after MGS4, most of those 80k consoles sold in a week would be up in used stores.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Anecdotal evidence, lots of used HD consoles in second-hand stores?



That's what doesn't make much sense to me either, but I honestly know nothing of Japan beyond what I learned from Kill Bill. The meme was that after MGS4, most of those 80k consoles sold in a week would be up in used stores.

Who is buying all of those used consoles? The used stores here won't buy things when they already have significant stock if they aren't moving them quickly.

So either there is a huge japanese used market, or this massive sell back story is just a story.

 

[obonicus]

Maybe someone who actually knows something can chime in? At the moment we're all talking out of our asses, which isn't too uncommon with these Media-create stories.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Who is buying all of those used consoles? The used stores here won't buy things when they already have significant stock if they aren't moving them quickly.

So either there is a huge japanese used market, or this massive sell back story is just a story.

Exactly.

And the story itself doesn't make sense.

If I were Japanese and bought a console to play the first great JRPG that was released on the 360, played it to my heart's content, and then sold my console why would I turn around and buy another NEW console for the next great JRPG?

Especially when this is a societal trend, so the used 360 market would be HUGE, containing all the 360s from others who did the same exact thing.

The entire IDEA seems absurd to me, and I don't understand why ANYBODY would give the idea traction without proof.

If the Japanese market is buying 360s and then dumping them, there would be a HUGE used market that the Japanese would tap into when the next game they had to play came along.

Yeah... sure, I'll hold my breath and wait for the 'person who knows' to chime in.

The entire PREMISE doesn't make sense, but let's wait for somebody to explain it to us instead of realizing how stupid of an idea it was to begin with.

 

[obonicus]

If I were Japanese and bought a console to play the first great JRPG that was released on the 360, played it to my heart's content, and then sold my console why would I turn around and buy another NEW console for the next great JRPG?

Because you want to play the next game? Let's take an RPG fan and assume that this demographic doesn't overlap with the Idolm@ster demographic. Lost Odyssey came out a full year after Blue Dragon did, in December. The next RPG, Tales of Vesperia, came out in August. There really wasn't that much in between, and sales reflect that. Would you hold onto a console you have no interest in, or would you sell it? When the next game comes out, EIGHT MONTHS LATER, you can rebuy it. If you bought a PS3 for MGS4, why would you hold onto it when there's nothing coming that interests you?

This is the part that actually makes sense.

Especially when this is a societal trend, so the used 360 market would be HUGE, containing all the 360s from others who did the same exact thing.

This is the questionable part: used stores aren't going to keep on buying merchandise that doesn't sell, or otherwise the price will plummet. But this might be what happens, up until the next big game comes out, and some of that stock is moved.

If the Japanese market is buying 360s and then dumping them, there would be a HUGE used market that the Japanese would tap into when the next game they had to play came along.

Maybe this is where bundles come in. And, as far as we know, again, maybe we do see quite a few sales in the used market, no one's tracking them!

Yeah... sure, I'll hold my breath and wait for the 'person who knows' to chime in.

There are a few B3Ders who are in Japan; they must know something, which is better than you or I knowing nothing.

The entire PREMISE doesn't make sense, but let's wait for somebody to explain it to us instead of realizing how stupid of an idea it was to begin with.

You're going into histrionics here, it would help to get some real information because right now we're building conjecture on top of conjecture.

My take on it is: the idea that everyone sells their console seems off, but that the 360/PS3 don't have lasting appeal in Japan doesn't. The story undoubtedly isn't 'everyone dumps their console the week after', but I do find it doubtful that anyone would hold onto a console that fails to appeal.

 

[eastmen]

Because you want to play the next game? Let's take an RPG fan and assume that this demographic doesn't overlap with the Idolm@ster demographic. Lost Odyssey came out a full year after Blue Dragon did, in December. The next RPG, Tales of Vesperia, came out in August. There really wasn't that much in between, and sales reflect that. Would you hold onto a console you have no interest in, or would you sell it? When the next game comes out, EIGHT MONTHS LATER, you can rebuy it. If you bought a PS3 for MGS4, why would you hold onto it when there's nothing coming that interests you?

This is the part that actually makes sense

why buy new though if there are so many used consoles .

Thats the part that makes no sense. Why keep spending so much money wen you can get used ones at a lower cost.

 

[obonicus]

why buy new though if there are so many used consoles .

Thats the part that makes no sense. Why keep spending so much money wen you can get used ones at a lower cost.

Yeah, that is the part that makes the least sense. Though, like I said, maybe they do. No one's tracking used sales, afterall. There's a distinct lack of information here. Otherwise, bundles are a possible (and partial) reason, and now, a lowered price and better offer (the 60Gb).

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Yeah, that is the part that makes the least sense. Though, like I said, maybe they do. No one's tracking used sales, afterall. There's a distinct lack of information here. Otherwise, bundles are a possible (and partial) reason, and now, a lowered price and better offer (the 60Gb).

The part that makes the least sense? That's the entire premise of the theory that you're putting forth.

That people in Japan are for some reason, repeatedly buying new consoles and then selling them.

Sorry, but market forces don't work different in Japan. Stores won't buy product they can't sell.

The bottom line is that unless you believe retailers in Japan are stockpiling warehouses full of used 360s, somehow hoping to get a return on their investment in the future (in the face of the well known price reduction strategy of consoles), the entire premise makes no sense.

I don't know where you are getting your anecdotal evidence from, but I have yet to see anybody report that this is a trend that is actually happening. Considering it also doesn't make the slightest bit of sense, I'm going to stand by my request for further explanation.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Actually used stores go through cycles in Japan. Some years they are extremely popular and you see new ones pop up all over.

Other years, not so much, and you see them close shop.

The Japanese DO in fact <<shock>> buy used products. It's been on the upswing since about 2000. That includes used consoles. They buy them AND they sell them.

I'll be heading back to Japan for my yearly 3 month work stay in less than a week, so I'll see how popular they are now. But I'm guessing with the global economy a bit stagnant, I'll be seeing the used stores doing a lot of business.

Regards
SB

 

[Arwin]

Actually if I understand it right, Japan is experiencing a big uplift now after many years of economic problems.

 

[Gerry]

Actually if I understand it right, Japan is experiencing a big uplift now after many years of economic problems.

I don't think so. Latest forecasts are for the economy to contract in 2009. They're having exactly the same problems as everyone else.

 

[Arwin]

I don't think so. Latest forecasts are for the economy to contract in 2009. They're having exactly the same problems as everyone else.

Maybe, but they've had these problems several years ago when noone else had them and have had to change and make their system healthy long before the U.S. did. They do in fact now have a fair bit of surplus cash. Again though, that's what I understand from a small newspaper article I quickly scanned ... I'll see if I can still find it tonight.

 

[obonicus]

Actually used stores go through cycles in Japan. Some years they are extremely popular and you see new ones pop up all over.

Other years, not so much, and you see them close shop.

The Japanese DO in fact <<shock>> buy used products. It's been on the upswing since about 2000. That includes used consoles. They buy them AND they sell them.

That's what I meant. They probably do sell them, we just have no way of knowing. They may even be selling lots of them, as well as the new ones.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Maybe, but they've had these problems several years ago when noone else had them and have had to change and make their system healthy long before the U.S. did. They do in fact now have a fair bit of surplus cash. Again though, that's what I understand from a small newspaper article I quickly scanned ... I'll see if I can still find it tonight.

Actually, Japan's economy tends to very closely mimic the US economy. Due mainly to the fact that the US is by far the greatest purchasers of Japanese goods.

China has recently started having an impact due to the fact they buy a LOT of recycled metal from Japan. And other recycled products (computers for example).

However China is hugely dependant on the US economy also. So what affects us, affects both Japan and China to a very large degree.

Regards,
SB