Xbox Series S [XBSS] (Lockhart) General Rumors and Speculation *spawn*

[eastmen]

Of course you can find some good games released on last gen in 2014 and even 2015 but they were becoming rarer. As I said, many releases were pale imitations of their current gen (PS4/XBO) games. By the way, Mortal Kombat X? That was cancelled on previous gen. Which is my point!

hey it happens but big games still hit two years after launch of the new consoles. It happens every generation which is my point.

Some of them are and as you get further from the new systems of course the difference will be more pronounced. The thing is they exist and are part of every generation.

Lockhart will leverage that. Because you can also turn on next gen effects and have next gen loading compared to current gen consoles. You also get it at a lower price point.


DF did a review of the new avengers game on all the systems. It seems like all current gen systems are cpu limited but it affects the ps4 the most since its the lowest clocked Its 1.6ghz vs 1.75 of the xbox one. ps4 pro is 2.13ghz and xbox one x is 2.3ghz. All of these pale in comparison to the new systems running zen 2. LH is rumored to have the same cpu and clock speeds of the XSX which would actually put its cpu at a faster clock speed than the ps5. Its also rumored to have the same ssd. The only major change is ram amount and gpu speed. These are both offset by rendering as low as a quarter of the resolution the xsx will be rendering.

I again don't see the issue with XSS

Add to the pile of rumors or just common sense the Switch launched march of 2017 so we will be seeing a new switch in the next year or so. It could be a switch pro so to speak or a switch 2. Either way its going to be a mobile apu. Looking at performance of the switch vs consoles it was very much on the power level of an xbox 360/ps3 with a lot more ram. But we know from hot chips and the designs themselves that ram is much more expensive. If we think about it we might see xbox one / ps4 level performance out of the switch with depending on what generation of gpu nvidia is in it. I'm not sure if Nvidia will have something in that power profile capable of ray tracing and other next gen features. However again it should slot in lower than Lockhart in performance.

So with that said I again don't see an issue with Lockhart of its performance. At the end of the day it wont be the lowest spec machine. Compared to last gen you have a faster cpu by a mile , modern gpu and ssd tech. Compared to the switch its night and day. A rumored switch pro would still slot in under it in terms of performance . It will only loose to the high end next gen systems.

The way I see it working is that we will have Lockhart till the middle of the generation. I think both the XSS and XSX will go away in 4 years. MS will launch two new systems both based on the newest Zen processor and Radeon video card. one of course will be a top of the line titan like the xbox series x is. The other will be a low cost version that will be about as powerful as the current series x but cheaper to make and support the newest features. I am sure whatever 2024 gpu tech amd has will be much faster with raytracing and have even newer features that don't exist on cards yet.

I think its a smarter move than making an expensive console and hope you can still cost reduce it 5 or 6 years after its launch.

 

[Adrian Orbis]

If according to Daniel Ahmad the BOM of the Series X is between 460 and 520 and according to Albert Penello in Resetera manufacturing and transport adds 20 dollars to the cost how cheap could this console be? Could it realistically cost less than 299?

 

[eastmen]

If according to Daniel Ahmad the BOM of the Series X is between 460 and 520 and according to Albert Penello in Resetera manufacturing and transport adds 20 dollars to the cost how cheap could this console be? Could it realistically cost less than 299?

well its rumored to have the same cpu as the xsx. However its gpu a third of the tflop power. So its a much smaller APU. That should make it a lot more power efficient right there. You then have slower and less ram which will reduce costs and also again power requirements. Its rumored again to be digital only so your dropping $15-30 off the bom and of course power again. So now your making a smaller power supply , you have no optical drive and your apu requires less power and produces less heat. So all cost reduction but also weight and size reduction. Less packaging costs and of course shipping costs.

I'd wager its a sub $300 price tag for MS . closer to $200 than $300

 

[goonergaz]

well its rumored to have the same cpu as the xsx. However its gpu a third of the tflop power. So its a much smaller APU. That should make it a lot more power efficient right there. You then have slower and less ram which will reduce costs and also again power requirements. Its rumored again to be digital only so your dropping $15-30 off the bom and of course power again. So now your making a smaller power supply , you have no optical drive and your apu requires less power and produces less heat. So all cost reduction but also weight and size reduction. Less packaging costs and of course shipping costs.

I'd wager its a sub $300 price tag for MS . closer to $200 than $300

I’ll take that wager, I like easy money

 

[AlphaWolf]

I’ll take that wager, I like easy money

And what bs estimate of cost will you be using to determine the winner?

 

[BRiT]

We'll never know the internal cost to either company for their consoles. We'll only ever know the retail suggested prices.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

We'll never know the internal cost to either company for their consoles. We'll only ever know the retail suggested prices.

The BOM estimates by analysts like iSuppy are as accurate as you can get, these account for industry volume pricing of commodity components like RAM, HDDs and PSUs but anything custom (like PS5's SSD and I/O controller) are unknowable and to a degree this goes for the cost APU as well. TSMC may give Microsoft or Sony a better rate depending on how much other business those companies collectively put their way for other products.

 

[BRiT]

Yes, that's as close as we get but they're sometimes so far off it's laughable at best.

 

[Nisaaru]

The BOM estimates by analysts like iSuppy are as accurate as you can get, these account for industry volume pricing of commodity components like RAM, HDDs and PSUs but anything custom (like PS5's SSD and I/O controller) are unknowable and to a degree this goes for the cost APU as well. TSMC may give Microsoft or Sony a better rate depending on how much other business those companies collectively put their way for other products.

Until you actually worked in the procurement of components, spot markets and bulk contracts you really can't give accurate prices here. IMHO what you can get from iSupply is list prices from suppliers and maybe some fairy dust assumptions/adjustments.

My personal experience in a smaller company which bought niche CPUs and components in xxxx-xxxxx area is that all these prices are negotiable and mixed up in all kinds of side deals related to the importance of your business and sales pressure of the departments/companies.

The situation for MS and partly Sony is on another level. Both have other HW businesses and MS also has the Windows/patent/Server area of interest in relation to AMD.

There are so many unknowns here that I don't expect any realistic BOM pricing by a 3rd party. Then there are also the costs not related to the BOM which surely affect the end price.

 

[iroboto]

The BOM estimates by analysts like iSuppy are as accurate as you can get, these account for industry volume pricing of commodity components like RAM, HDDs and PSUs but anything custom (like PS5's SSD and I/O controller) are unknowable and to a degree this goes for the cost APU as well. TSMC may give Microsoft or Sony a better rate depending on how much other business those companies collectively put their way for other products.

It’s extremely hard to guess the discount rates that MS can achieve given that they can bundle their contracts into Azure. So that 1B spend per month can be used to extend additional to discounts to the Scarlett and Lockhart APUs especially if MS have more intentions to use them in areas outside of cloud and consoles.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Until you actually worked in the procurement of components, spot markets and bulk contracts you really can't give accurate prices here. IMHO what you can get from iSupply is list prices from suppliers and maybe some fairy dust assumptions/adjustments.

There generally aren't list prices for high volume procurement. By high volume, I mean you need to agree a specific contract with the supplier so they can ramp up produced to meet your needs, hence the lack of list prices.

It’s extremely hard to guess the discount rates that MS can achieve given that they can bundle their contracts into Azure. So that 1B spend per month can be used to extend additional to discounts to the Scarlett and Lockhart APUs especially if MS have more intentions to use them in areas outside of cloud and consoles.

I said this, did you mis-read my post? TSMC engage in a lot of strategic partnerships, they build a whole new line for Sony in July for CIS production. If you have morey, TSMC will partner with you

 

[iroboto]

I said this, did you mis-read my post? TSMC engage in a lot of strategic partnerships, they build a whole new line for Sony in July for CIS production. If you have morey, TSMC will partner with you

I did: I guess it was in response to this; The BOM estimates by analysts like iSuppy are as accurate as you can get

I'm just not sure what happens when you're typically dealing with even larger deals. I'm not sure if they are accurate anymore. If we assume iSuppy does basic discount rates (more volume = more discount), then the assumption is that buying purchasing more you get more discount. But when you're dealing with mega amounts like MS is with Epyc DC builds, their Xbox APUs may not have the volume to obtain the best discount rates, but the bundling with Eypc could give it that discount rate.

So I'm saying, it's difficult to guess when you're in that type of setup. And there is no doubt that MS is looking into this since they have to bring Scarlett to the cloud anyway.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I did: I guess it was in response to this; The BOM estimates by analysts like iSuppy are as accurate as you can get

Despite quoting it, you didn't seem to read: TSMC may give Microsoft or Sony a better rate depending on how much other business those companies collectively put their way for other products.

I guess you've had a long week. I'm also too tired to argue - I also had a long week!

 

[goonergaz]

And what bs estimate of cost will you be using to determine the winner?

Estimate of common sense

I personally can’t see them producing a machine of the XSS power for under 250

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Estimate of common sense

I personally can’t see them producing a machine of the XSS power for under 250

It might be unlikely, but I could see it. If you look at what MS has included much of it is with an eye towards lower cost. The SSD solution uses about the cheapest generic PCIE 4 controller chip you can possibly buy. The SSD itself isn't rated for super high speeds, so it doesn't need the best NAND chips and on top of that it's shared with the XBSX. The SOC is clocked low (likely same or similar clocks compared to the XBSX) to maximize yields and reduce the heat footprint of the SOC. This should drastically reduce the cost of the cooling system compared to the XBSX. RAM which is one of the higher cost components is less than the XBSX.

Wafer costs will be shared with Azure, Xbox cloud gaming and XBSX. Heck even the custom SSD may have greater economies of scale if it also ends up being used for Azure and the cloud gaming initiative. Although the Azure version would likely have greater capacity with potential to further reduce the cost of the NAND chips.

Personally, I don't think the BOM will be below 250 USD, but I could certainly see it as a small possibility.

Regards,
SB

 

[goonergaz]

It might be unlikely, but I could see it. If you look at what MS has included much of it is with an eye towards lower cost. The SSD solution uses about the cheapest generic PCIE 4 controller chip you can possibly buy. The SSD itself isn't rated for super high speeds, so it doesn't need the best NAND chips and on top of that it's shared with the XBSX. The SOC is clocked low (likely same or similar clocks compared to the XBSX) to maximize yields and reduce the heat footprint of the SOC. This should drastically reduce the cost of the cooling system compared to the XBSX. RAM which is one of the higher cost components is less than the XBSX.

Wafer costs will be shared with Azure, Xbox cloud gaming and XBSX. Heck even the custom SSD may have greater economies of scale if it also ends up being used for Azure and the cloud gaming initiative. Although the Azure version would likely have greater capacity with potential to further reduce the cost of the NAND chips.

Personally, I don't think the BOM will be below 250 USD, but I could certainly see it as a small possibility.

Regards,
SB

So do I take it that’s 2 suckers that want to take a bet?

Seriously tho, I do get what you’re saying - I just can’t see it happening with what we know about the specs, more than happy to be wrong though

 

[Jay]

Wafer costs will be shared with Azure, Xbox cloud gaming and XBSX.

So your of the view that there all using the same die, just more disabled CU's dependent on what it's going in?

My reason for not thinking that they can get it below 250 is that i expect the xsx to be 500.
Even with a cooler less power hungry chip, the apu isn't going to be dirt cheap going by ms hot chips 7nm+ presentation.

How cheap was they able to get the xo/1x down to, they was using dirt cheap hdd, cheaper apu, etc.
I only see them going that low if forced by Sony and i don't see Sony PS5 DD getting down to bellow 350 to force such a price.

I still find it amazing that people only see Lockhart as being decent value if it seriosly undercuts the price of current gens, current price.

Oh well, we should find out the prices within next couple months, hopefully at least couple days before launch.

 

[AzBat]

“I would say a learning from the Xbox One generation is we will not be out of position on power or price,”

https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/14...-price-performance-ps5-phil-spencer-interview

Tommy McClain

 

[cheapchips]

An expensive X and underpowered S allow them to be out of position on both.

 

[Proelite]

An expensive X and underpowered S allow them to be out of position on both.