Wii success will not last, says developer

Well, consumers go for the low price point.
As GC shows, that's not the case. Consumers go with the product that suits them (price/performance), with strong influence by peers and trends. No one factor is accountable. Wii is not just selling because it's cheap!
 
So people here really think that Wii Play is the best selling Wii game for no reason? That Hardcore fans are really the large amount of the user base?

You don't think Mario Party and Wii Play Selling 400K and 300K respectively is any indication of the user base? Give me a break. Again, the people buying it are not people who are OMG for Re: 4, they are people who have friends over to play minigames at their martini parties. College kids who want a cheap console, but aren't really 'into' games.

I'm just being realistic. The Wii isn't a place for 'hardcore' games to succeed. I can promies you that SSBB sales will pale in comparison to Wii Fit.

Again, the 'fad' will tire out by the time PS3 or 360 hit $299, which will be in a few months, possibly, for the 360, and 12 to 18 months for the PS3. By that time, the Wii's install base will be huge, true, but many of those people will be 'moving on' to the 'next gen' consoles.

Also, the PS3 and 360 have much more room to expand their features beyond that of the Wii.

Extensive Online Community Features - Wii: Not Really, PS3 / 360: Yes
HD Functionality / Widescreen Support - Wii: No, PS3/360: Of course
Expanded Surround Sound Support - Wii: No, PS3/360: Of Course
Original Titles via Download Svc - Wii: No, PS3/360: Of Course
DVD Playback - Wii: No, PS3/360: Yes, and then some
Easy to use friend system - Wii: No (FC FTL), PS3 / 360: Of course
External Device Connectivity - Wii: Limited, PS3/360: Expanded
Room for visual improvement - Wii: Limited, PS3/360: Lots of Room
3rd Party Support - Wii: Lots Ports (currently), PS3 / 360: Lots of new IP's


As for the Wii offering 'expanded control' for "sword fighting" and "bringing FPS's closer to mouse/kb counterpart"...that's bs.

The Sword Fighting in every game is bland and shallow, often offering little the way of 'fun' (see: DragonQuest Swords). And the FPS stuff is extremely weak (see: Every FPS on Wii). The control is TOO sensative to 'bring it closer" and it doesn't really matter anyway, since the Wii has nearly no online component for Multiplayer gaming.

Lol, people buy Wii Play because it comes with a controller. Wii Sports comes with the system, unless you live in Japan.

The Sword Fighting in every game is bland and shallow, often offering little the way of 'fun' (see: DragonQuest Swords). And the FPS stuff is extremely weak (see: Every FPS on Wii). The control is TOO sensative to 'bring it closer" and it doesn't really matter anyway, since the Wii has nearly no online component for Multiplayer gaming.

Opinions are fun. From what I've heard, Dragon Quest Swords is quite fun, just a little on the short side.

As for FPS, Metroid is coming up. Also, one of the upcoming Wii FPS games (Brothers in Arms or Call of Duty, forget which) will have 32 player online.

Hell, I'd wager that most of Nintendo's upcoming stuff will have online (unless it's something like Zelda or Metroid)of some kind. EA is giving the Wii version of Madden a bunch of online stuff as well.

It sounds to me like you're grasping at straws in your hopes for the Wii to eventually "fail." But the history of the industry tells us that it doesn't work that way.
 
Well, consumers go for the low price point. Honestly, if the PSP was the price of the DS, it would be in an amazing position right now, however, it's expensive. The software selection on PSP is amazing, from Luminee's, Sid Miers Pirates, Ratchet, MGS: PO, Syphon Filter, and now PS1 titles from PS3 and soon many great AAA hits.

As for RE4, when the user base is literally millions in the US, and it only manages what, 140K? In 10 days? That's 14,000 a day. You cannot assume that sales pattern will hold out throughout a month, and given most of them probably happened on the first day, it's safe to say they died fairly fast. The reason I can come to that conclusion is because an average of 0.07% of the installed userbase for Wii in the USA bought RE4 per day for 10 days. That's not 'impressive'. It clearly illustrates that the Wii is still not hitting hardcore sales numbers. It would take 71 days for RE4 to hit 1 Million sold if it continued at it's 'current' average rate. Selling well? Give me a break, don't mistake '10' days for 'great sales'.


We are also talking about the 3rd release of the game also. It still puts it in the top 20 of NPD. It should be a lesson to 3rd parties bring a quality game and sales will follow. Wii owners bought the first good 3rd party game so they passed that test. How NG:S sell again?

The PSP hardware is selling great but game sales are non existant. Hardware sales of the PSP have not been an issue at all unless compared the DS which is pretty much the fastest selling system ever.
 
How do we know the Wii can't be successfull for hardcore games? How many AAA quality hardcore type games have been released for the Wii? RE4 is about as close as we have gotten and that has sold great. You can rip on Wii game sales all you want but the PS3 is the second system in a row sony has released that is not selling games at all.

I think the casual gamers prefer the Wiimote to a standard controller. I think the casual gamers are not going any where for a long long time.

I dont think he is discussing whether it has the potential to be "succesfull" for the hardcore gamer but for what people it is successful right now and will continue to be for the most part. It is mainly the type of people he talked about that made the console such a huge success like no other. It is these people that get excited the most about it.

The amount of hardcore gamers that are strongly faithful to the Wii were Nintendo fans from the beginning. Most hardcore gamers lean towards the other platforms even if they additionally own a Wii. They are following the initial trend that we had last generation. It's not like Zelda, Paper Mario, Smash Bros, Mario Kart and the likes all of a sudden became the superb games for them they always wanted to play as if they werent worth it on GC resulting to Wii's huge sales. Nintendo captured the "hearts" of other people o become a success.
 
I dont think he is discussing whether it has the potential to be "succesfull" for the hardcore gamer but for what people it is successful right now and will continue to be for the most part. It is mainly the type of people he talked about that made the console such a huge success like no other. It is these people that get excited the most about it.

The amount of hardcore gamers that are strongly faithful to the Wii were Nintendo fans from the beginning. Most hardcore gamers lean towards the other platforms even if they additionally own a Wii. They are following the initial trend that we had last generation. It's not like Zelda, Paper Mario, Smash Bros, Mario Kart and the likes all of a sudden became the superb games for them they always wanted to play as if they werent worth it on GC resulting to Wii's huge sales. Nintendo captured the "hearts" of other people o become a success.

Well, the problem is that outside of Nintendo's own hardcore oriented games, what do hardcore gamers have to look forward to? It's hard to lean towards a Nintendo system when there's nothing there outside of Nintendo's own hardcore titles.

Third parties will eventually figure that out, but it's going to be a while.
 
Well, the problem is that outside of Nintendo's own hardcore oriented games, what do hardcore gamers have to look forward to? It's hard to lean towards a Nintendo system when there's nothing there outside of Nintendo's own hardcore titles.

Third parties will eventually figure that out, but it's going to be a while.

I am no hardcore nintendo fan I refuse to wait in line for a Wii. I want a Wii for MP3 and the platform games (SMG) on top of trama center type games. I love my 360 but it is really weak in the platform/adventure type games. Trama center 2 will have co op that will be off the charts insane.
 
As said, you can stream sound from the PC and the online service exists as well (however rudimentary it may be). And you can run Opera too.
Streaming from a PC is a nice feature but can Wii play mp3's you've stored on the internal flash memory? Can you rip CD's? Can you download demo's, customise your desktop, view slideshows of uploaded photo's?
While Wii may share some of these features PS3 and X360 have, generally it's either rudimentary (like you said) or non-existent.

They don't have anything like Live, but that's to me rather a good thing. You have to draw the line somewhere and I think Nintendo execs did well with their choice.
Imo not. If that's the line Nintendo execs draw then I would love to be on the other side of that line. A console that's designed with gaming as a primary purpose would be far more interesting with a decent service to play games without those surfing/music streaming features.
 
quote="tha_con"]
Also, the PS3 and 360 have much more room to expand their features beyond that of the Wii.

Extensive Online Community Features - Wii: Not Really, PS3 / 360: Yes
[/quote]
True on this, Nintendo is still mum about what it is doing.

HD Functionality / Widescreen Support - Wii: No, PS3/360: Of course
No HD for Wii, but it does have true widescreen 480p.

Expanded Surround Sound Support - Wii: No, PS3/360: Of Course
True, but Dolby Pro Logic II is not a bad thing either.

Original Titles via Download Svc - Wii: No, PS3/360: Of Course
WiiWare coming 2008.

DVD Playback - Wii: No, PS3/360: Yes, and then some
All the Wii is missing is a DVD Channel. It can be done at anytime, Nintendo should offer this.

Easy to use friend system - Wii: No (FC FTL), PS3 / 360: Of course
Madden 2008 uses EA's online system, not friends code. Each game can use their own or use Nintendo's version of Gamespy.

External Device Connectivity - Wii: Limited, PS3/360: Expanded
Explain expanded please.

Room for visual improvement - Wii: Limited, PS3/360: Lots of Room
Wii hardware is still unknown.

3rd Party Support - Wii: Lots Ports (currently), PS3 / 360: Lots of new IP's
This could easily become a list war, suffice to say, there are plenty of new IPs already on the Wii.
Many developers are now playing catchup because they thought the Wii would not sell.

Here's a partial list of upcoming Wii Games:
http://wii.ign.com/articles/803/803433p1.html
 
Streaming from a PC is a nice feature but can Wii play mp3's you've stored on the internal flash memory? Can you rip CD's? Can you download demo's, customise your desktop, view slideshows of uploaded photo's?

That's what a PC is for... How many PS3/360/Wii owners out there do you think don't have a PC? Downloadable demo's and game trailers is about the only thing you mentioned that I'd say would be good to add to Wii. Everything else there is either already possible (video/audio streaming to your TV, viewing picture slide shows from memory card ect) or just useless for 99.9% of users (CD ripping, customisable desktop ect).
 
Streaming from a PC is a nice feature but can Wii play mp3's you've stored on the internal flash memory? Can you rip CD's? Can you download demo's, customise your desktop, view slideshows of uploaded photo's?
While Wii may share some of these features PS3 and X360 have, generally it's either rudimentary (like you said) or non-existent.


Imo not. If that's the line Nintendo execs draw then I would love to be on the other side of that line. A console that's designed with gaming as a primary purpose would be far more interesting with a decent service to play games without those surfing/music streaming features.


You can play MP3s (from your SD Card) in the photo channel, the same channel you can edit those photos off of a SD Card.

You can also load the MP3 list in games versus the built in soundtrack if the developer so chooses. Excite Truck already uses this function.
 
Ok...more thoughts.

1. I think that there's a misgiving - or false presumption that "hardcore gamers" drive console sales - they don't. Think I'm wrong? Look at the sales for "casual games" vs "hardcore game" sales and show me where something like Pokemon gets outsold by God of War :p - or how the Sims gets outsold by...anything at all.

2. Discounting the Wii in any form or fashion is naive. It's like saying that Compaq's are going to get outsold by Alienware's because the latter is somehow technologically superior (bad example I know...but you get the point) - it doesn't matter if it's technologically superior...paper specs mean very little to "casual" gamers - it's about new experiences and well..fun...and the Wii's got a new market

3. NOW, lets talk about something that no one's saying - the Wii is doing something that other consoles have traditionally failed at...it's branching out into markets where there wasn't a market before - have you ever heard of Senior Citizen Assisted living homes picking up Xbox 360's to play around the rec-room?? Hmmmm

4. I think that saying that Nintendo is somehow incapable or not going to come up with original IP's is just plain naive - or just to obtuse to realize that coming up with original IPs is really what they do. True enough....a large portion of the games that exist for the wii at present are cross console releases (third party) - but the same can certainly be said about the other players here - if ANY of the three has proven time and time again that they can create and correctly market/distribut original ideas...it's nintendo - I wouldn't discount them just yet.

5. I have no doubt that technologically, the Wii is vastly inferior to the other two consoles...but at present, the sales numbers prove that doesn't matter. Someone above mentioned the lack of online community and stuff like "easy to use friends lists for online play" - who says that's not coming - the latest pokemon has already instituted online play - if necessary, such functionality wouldn't be hard to add. Bottom line, most of those "checkbox features" mentioned above - are either overdone, or just unnecessary. let me ask you...for the typical Wii owner...do you think that "dvd playback," for example - is necessary?? Hell no...they already owned DVD players....so how is that necessary. If anything...I applaud Nintendo for not cluttering up my gaming console with features that I have other devices for. I realize that there are people who are looking for "all-in-one" devices....but do you honestly think that rule applies to everyone.

- Ask yourself this....what genius decided to include dvd-playback to the Xbox360 - a console aimed at high-def gaming....to include a standard def-dvd player.... :p I'll give the nod to Sony...at least they didn't beat around the bush with this concept (though I do prefer MS's "modular" approach to High-def DVD in terms of pricing).

Jack
 
That's what a PC is for... How many PS3/360/Wii owners out there do you think don't have a PC?
Now expand that argument completely. How many PC owning people have a PC already connected up to their TV to run media stuff? From my circle of experience, you'd be lucky if that's 5%. EVeryone household has a PC, but it's in the office or a bedroom. How many of the non-Media PC owning families would like that TV-integrated functionality but haven't the understanding or wherewithall to set it up? In my circle of experience, quite a lot. I know when a friend shows off their Media PC and having everything on demand, people are impressed. It's something they'd like. Thus is there a market for a simpler device than a PC to do that job that you attribute to PCs? I think so. I don't know that people at the moment would be quick to buy into it, but given a low enough price and deep enough functionality, I can see it as being as valued as portable MP3 players are at the moment. A console offers a cheap, simple solution if those functions are fully fleshed out. And that's a service Wii isn't going to be supplying, unless Nintendo have a sudden change of heart (though they have had quite a change of philosophy regards gaming-only hardware, so you never know!)
 
I think in the long term, the Wii could compliment the PS3 and 360 because the Wii is attracting new audience to the gaming industry and eventually these new audience will want to have a different gaming experience and they might give the PS3 or 360 a go. So in essence, the Wii make the pie bigger while the PS3 and 360 have a bigger slice of it.

I forgot where I read it, but some survey done shows that less 10% of Wii buyers haven't owned a console before. So it really isn't expanding the market. More likely is that it's taking market share from Microsoft and Sony, chiefly the latter.

Of course, it's something that's to be expected. Two hundred fifty is still a lot of money for just "trying something out." We'll see whether the Wii can actually make the pie bigger when it's sold for a hundred something.
 
I forgot where I read it, but some survey done shows that less 10% of Wii buyers haven't owned a console before. So it really isn't expanding the market. More likely is that it's taking market share from Microsoft and Sony, chiefly the latter.

Of course, it's something that's to be expected. Two hundred fifty is still a lot of money for just "trying something out." We'll see whether the Wii can actually make the pie bigger when it's sold for a hundred something.

Actually, 10% is a pretty big expansion considering the reputation gaming has. :smile:
 
Again, the people buying it are not people who are OMG for Re: 4, they are people who have friends over to play minigames at their martini parties. College kids who want a cheap console, but aren't really 'into' games.
Where is your original research that proves this?

That you think you know this is the case doesn't actually make it so!

but many of those people will be 'moving on' to the 'next gen' consoles.
That's nothing but your own assumptions (and perhaps wishful thinking). Unless you show some actual evidence there's no reason to take you seriously!

Also, the PS3 and 360 have much more room to expand their features beyond that of the Wii.

Extensive Online Community Features - Wii: Not Really, PS3 / 360: Yes
Blah blah.

You're making up your own list why you think the other consoles should sell more than Wii does. But they don't! That just goes to show most people don't reason, or prioritize the way you do.

That doesn't mean they're wrong - or that you wiull eventually be proven right after all. It just means they don't reason the way you do.

As for the Wii offering 'expanded control' for "sword fighting" and "bringing FPS's closer to mouse/kb counterpart"...that's bs.
Ah yes. The hallmark of a true fanboy - you point out all the percieved advantages of your beloved object(s) and then when talking about the competition's advantages you dismiss them as bullshit.. :LOL:

and it doesn't really matter anyway, since the Wii has nearly no online component for Multiplayer gaming.
Most people don't actually care much for online multiplayer. If they had then Nintendo would have been there supporting it like there's no tomorrow trust me.

Peace.
 
I think Nintendo is essentially skipping a generation. They don't have obscenely deep pockets like Microsoft, so the Wii was a huge risk taking move for them.

Nintendo has very deep pockets with over $9 Billion in the bank at current currency exchange (Net Assets of 1,102,018,000,000 Yen http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2007/070426e.pdf).

Basically what we have here is a Game Developer that doesn't believe their has been a shift in who is buying consoles hence why he believes gamers want graphics. The shift seems to be there and very real and doesn't seem to have picked up to the full potential it could in the future with adequate stock supplies and price cuts (and its kinda disturbing seeing things like Martha Stewart baking a Wii cake on the front of Wired magazine).

There is defiantly room in the market for at least one high definition console for those who want graphics but don't want to buy an expensive PC. The question really is there is room for 2 when the casuals are buying a much less powerful/cheaper console like the Wii?

Edit: For reference Microsoft has $21 Billion in cash.
 
The DS train your mind,the WII train your body.This is the future of the Nintendo.

Tthe WII definitivly have better graphics than a treadmill or an exercise bike, and it behave like a personal trainer,and they are the real competitors,not the xb or the ps.

Possibly they will buy only one or two videogame in every year,but each console have at least 100$ profit right now (WII),and after that every game is a solid gain.
The WII have a very good attach ratio, so they will have the same amount of the hc fans like the ms or the sony, and above that the bread and butter:a few hundred million man and women who want to controll his/her weight,and want to make a quick and simple game on every day.
 
Net assets does not mean cash in the bank.

Heh, alright yeah I shouldn't have used the statement "in the bank" >_< But they do have $9 Billion worth in various investments that they could move for cash if necessary. My main point was they have fairly deep pockets if they choose to use them but they won't use them because Nintendo prefers to be fiscally conservative hence how the Wii came about.
 
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