There is *significantly* more competition now in the driving game genre compared to back then. Back then GT was the only game in town except for maybe Burnout, but now there are multiple amazing choices in the genre. So, will people still really pay ~$500 just to play GT5? I don't think that is a risk they should take because if they gamble and it doesn't move PS3's then it only helps the competition. They really should wait for a price drop.
Almost 3 Years And PS3's First Party Still Does Not Have A Killer App?
- Thread starter TEXAN*
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There is *significantly* more competition now in the driving game genre compared to back then. Back then GT was the only game in town except for maybe Burnout, but now there are multiple amazing choices in the genre. So, will people still really pay ~$500 just to play GT5? I don't think that is a risk they should take because if they gamble and it doesn't move PS3's then it only helps the competition. They really should wait for a price drop.
I live in the Netherlands. My PS2 cost 1150 Gulden, or 517.50 Euro. My PS3 cost 600 Euro and came with a discount of half price on my first game, 32,50 Euro instead of 65 Euro. I guess I did pay less for my PS2 after all.
Today I get a PS3 for 400 Euro including a game. It pretty much follows the US if you convert Dollars to Euro's 1 on 1.
Today I get a PS3 for 400 Euro including a game. It pretty much follows the US if you convert Dollars to Euro's 1 on 1.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
You could certainly argue the quality of the exclusives as it's down to personal choice.
Xbox 1 had quite a few 1st and 3rd party exclusives, some of which did quite well. http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=13987 Unfortunately, I don't have the time to try to find sales figures for the more popular ones. And many of those are 1st or 2nd party exclusives.
As for X360, there's still quite a few 3rd party exclusives that aren't timed. Gears series, L4D series, Infinite Undiscovery, the first Saints Row, Dead or Alive 4, Blue Dragon, the original Dead Rising (I think Wii has a dead rising also but is it the same game?), Ninja Blade, Ninety-Nine Nights, Lost Odyssey, and many more... Those are just ones I could pull off the top of my head.
PS3 at least still has a fair amount of 3rd party exclusive support in Japan, but that doesn't appear to extend to the US.
And granted not all of the X360 3rd party exclusives are huge sellers but some of them are.
So as I was stating before. Up til now, only PS3 isn't showing historically established gaming trends for the stronger consoles.
And I would still argue that Xbox 1 did relatively better than PS3 so far with regards to both first and third party exclusives.
Regards,
SB
The next price drop will probably happen before GT5 arrives. And it has advantage of being widely considered of being the best racing franchise out there. (Wether it in fact is or isn't doesn't matter) Does it really need to sell all those PS3's in one go, or can it be to reason to want a PS3 which people can buy whenever the price drops low enough for them?
Just being a "reason to want a PS3" isn't really enough when there are alternative games available. Let's say someone still hasn't joined this gen and they are still clinging to their PS2. The crave a good racing game but they have been patiently waiting for GT5. GT5 finally arrives and it will cost them $500 to play. Three things can happen. Some will pay the $500. Some might say forget it, it's too much, but I'm a die hard GT fan so I'll wait until I can afford it. Then some might say dammit to hell with waiting, I'll just get Forza and a 360 arcade for $260.
There is always a certain amount of "momentum" at the launch of a new game, the combination of marketing, word of mouth, office chatter, etc, that generates some elevated short term excitement. That might push some to spend the $500, but it might push others to go to the competition. The GT hardcore would probably spend the $500, but there are others that maybe have tasted the competition and don't want to wait anymore. Perhaps they no longer see it as fun to play GT for hours only only to be awarded a 63hp Suzuki Cappuccino when they can win better cars on other products. Perhaps the excitement compels them to just go by a racing game already, and they realize they can get a 360 with Forza, Pure, Grid, and Need For Speed, etc all for less than the price of just the PS3. Where will it push them?
It's like when people really need a new TV and they wait for this new model that they really like. But when it comes out they realize they can't afford it anytime soon so they say screw it, I'll just get the slightly cheaper model now rather than wait. The extremely long delay in shipping GT5 has allowed for plenty of competition, so there is no guarantee anymore that the faithful will put out the cash needed to play instead of just buying the competition. So to me waiting for the price drop makes sense. They have already delayed so long as to allow lots of other games out there, may as well wait a few more months and leverage a (hopefully) $100 console price drop.
The price drop has been long overdue and if they were to push out GT5 with the current price, it certainly would not create any sort of sustained momentum. The smart thing would be to do the price cut first and once the momentum from that starts to slow, bring out GT5 and let it carry you out to the next price cut.
If GT5 is really coming along side a price drop this year, I would expect them to start building some hype around it. A big showing at E3, and a release date. GT5 will most likely be 2010, while a price drop would make sense during the holiday season. Uncharted 2 would be available at the time and might see a nice boost because of it. Though its nowhere near as popular as GT.
In that case the price will already have been dropped before GT5 arrives. And the only thing it can leverage is being bundled with a PS3.
I'm not so sure it could drive a significant amount to the competition if the PS3 is still priced too high. Maybe that because I buy things I want at the price of a console instead of looking for cheaper alternatives. All the competition it the world doesn't compensate for GT, despite it's ,IMO, many flaws. Either way, it's hard to predict what the masses will do.
In that case the price will already have been dropped before GT5 arrives. And the only thing it can leverage is being bundled with a PS3.
I'm not so sure it could drive a significant amount to the competition if the PS3 is still priced too high. Maybe that because I buy things I want at the price of a console instead of looking for cheaper alternatives. All the competition it the world doesn't compensate for GT, despite it's ,IMO, many flaws. Either way, it's hard to predict what the masses will do.
I think in some ways that's true. Once upon a time, die-hard footy fans swore by PES despite FIFA selling better, and no amount of FIFA could win them over (until it was made better!). GT is more than just a car game; it's a franchise that has pervaded the petrol-head scene. It's a game mentioned on Top Gear by name, is played in the office. It's a franchise that has led to in-car interfaces and whole new vehicles. I think where gamers who like racers may see alternatives, petrol-heads will only know GT at this point and want a PS3+GT, prefering to not have anything if that's out of their price range.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
I'd agree this would be the most business savy thing to do IMO. But there's always a chance someone in charge will want a larger number to parrot out for PR purposes. In that case, there could be a push to have GT launch simultaneously with a price even if it has the potential to lower long term sales.
If Sony cuts price this holiday season, then I'd expect they'll launch GT5 in the spring as many expect. That would have the best chance of sustained sales.
If Sony doesn't cut price this holiday season, then I'd expect they'll cut price when they launch GT5.
Regards,
SB
Silent_Buddha
Legend
I'm not so certain about that with regards to serious petrol heads. There's obviously more petrol heads in the GT camp than the Forza camp just due to the size of the fan base. However, I think the serious petrol heads will end up swapping far sooner than casual fans if Forza can show that it's technically more accurate.
If the 500 USD-unlimited budget driving accessories are anything to go by (full motion cockpits for example), then there is a very significant petrol head presence for Forza. As there appears to be a lot of effort being expended by those companies developing high dollar (10k USD+) contraptions for use with Forza 3.
As your argument with the soccer/footballer games went. Once FIFA was able to show it was better, the diehards switched.
The fact that GT5 won't be launching in a similar time frame as Forza 3 works to Forza's advantage in this case. As all they have to show is that it's better than GT4. And petrol heads that are jonesing for an experience will be more easily convinced to switch.
Obviously not all would switch as always there will always be stalwarts of one game or another.
So I'd argue that the less diehard fans, those that dabble in racing and fancy themselves a good driver will be more likely to wait it out than a true petrol head jonesing for a realistic driving experience. Granted the more casual GT fans I would expect far outnumber the true petrol heads.
Regards,
SB
How will they know Forza 3 is more technically accurate? To reach enough people it will have to earn that name for itself. By the time it does that will Forza 3 itself still benefit from it, or will that slowly build-up over multiple games.? If that the case GT5 can still steal it's thunder.
I suggest that you read my whole posts.
The PS2 was technologically a lot superior to the DC and was priced right. The market was anticipating for the PS2 along with follow ups of the PS1 successes. Of which almost none saw the day of light on the DC before or after the entry of the PS2. The DC came into the market as a new and unproven player unlike the 360 and carried the curse of Sega's old failures. Piracy was killing its retail software sales on top of it. The PS2 would be getting DC releases and games that could not be ported to the DC. Unlike the 360 the DC wasnt doing great from the very beginning.
The Saturn was general mess caused by Sega of Japan with last minute decisions, wasnt priced competitively and it was a hell one hard of a console to develop for.
The PS3 like the Saturn was not priced attractively unlike the PS1. Unlike the PS2 it came a year+ later with almost identical performance to a 1+ year old console and unlike the PS1 that came in the same year as the Saturn with almost identical performance. In addition unlike the DC, the 360 was enjoying releases of PS3-like performance, franchises that were known on the PS2 and XBOX were being announced and/or released for the 360 before the entry of the PS3, and the 360 was the successor of the XBOX that managed to build a significant brand presence. Unlike the DC.
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...and Atari used to be synonymous with video games, ingrained in popular culture as the absolute place to be for gaming. No way that could ever change I suppose?
The one absolute thing that the history of video games teaches is that people are fickle, and ultimately everything is replaceable.Well, In french sportauto media they began to speak about FM3 (and also FM2) and some presented FM to be the equivalent of the Bests Simu car games on PC for driving feeling and the best for car customisation.
It's very strange due to the fact when FM2 release they don't speak about it, present Burnout PS3 and don't speak about 360, no words about Race Pro on 360…
Maybe is the victory of the 908 HDI during the "24 heure du Mans " and the partenariat MS/Peugeot. French people are generally glorify french victorious and Co and bash them when they are second… and in the same time they're glorify the others victorious if they used some french products…
And like all victorious shake French Champagne, we always victorious at the end!
...and Atari used to be synonymous with video games, ingrained in popular culture as the absolute place to be for gaming. No way that could ever change I suppose?
Exactly.
Franchises can also lose their thunder.
Sonic used to be a system seller ... not so much anymore.
Street Fighter used to be a system seller ... not so much anymore.
Crash used to be a system seller ... etc.
Tekken ...
I never said otherwise, and my football game anaology shows I recognise switches are possible. Heck, the PS brand itself isn't what it used to be. But we're talking specifically about GT5 here. At the moment, seems to me the car franchise of the driving community is still GT. This isn't about people making an informed choice about the best driving simulator, but people buying the brand they associate with. GT has built up a huge presence in the driving world. Even if Forza or any other title was a better racer, GT has the brand awareness and it takes a fair bit to knock that down. Offering a better product at a cheaper price does not guarantee displacing the number one brand!...and Atari used to be synonymous with video games, ingrained in popular culture as the absolute place to be for gaming. No way that could ever change I suppose?
FIFA was a better game than PES, IMO, a good few versions ago, but those loyal to the PES brand took time to win over, and prefered to buy and play the inferior game because they 'knew' that it was better. the GT brand is still as strong as ever. PD haven't done anything stupid yet to turn people off of GT. Sure, Forza can get stronger, just as Sony's Walkman brand can get stronger in the face of iPod, but it's gonna take something incredible for anyone to displace Apple's brand as the brand of portable music, and IMO it'll take something incredible to displace GT as the brand of racing games by the next iteration.
Flawed argument. Those franchises fizzled out because gaming moved on. Who wanted a 2D hedgehog game or fighter? When was 3D platforming with analog sticks last popular? A driving game has to look realistic and act realistic. As long as those aspects improve, the market remains viable. Just like the football market, and in stark contrast to 2D platformers and text adventures.
Brands can be left behind by progress, exhaust themselves, or be outcompeted. What leads you to believe that over the past few years, the GT brand has slipped to the point that there's not much interest now?
Nothing.
As I showed previously by bringing up GT sales records, the market for a GT racer seems to be about 10 mill.
I'm not saying GT5 will sell that much, but I'm not saying it can't either.
I will say that I agree with Joker that the market for a GT racer is much more competitive now. Having Forza3 available on a platform that is significantly cheaper will impact the sales of GT5.
How much is anyone's guess.
If Sony is able to launch the slim ps3 with a $100 pricedrop and launch gt5 at the same time, it will maximize their opportunity to create and build awareness for ps3 and gt5.
I would think they would be able to move 6-7 million units of gt5 in this scenario if they market it properly.
You forget SB's biggest flaw in the argument - switching from GT5 to Forza 3 is a lot more complicated than switching from PES to FIFA, simply because they are both exclusives.
Anyway, I'm one of those petrolheads and I know a lot of GT diehards, and I don't see many signs of people wanting to make that switch. Almost all of them would not only have to buy a new wheel for instance along with that 360, where they can keep using their Momo, Driving Force Pro/GT, G25 or whatever they've been using so far on PS2/3 and PC.
Forza 2 was a bigger opportunity, because at that time GT5 full was so far off, though even there loyalty to GT was high and only people who were really into the paint customisation switched (temporarily I might add - almost all of them got a PS3 and Prologue).
The biggest chance Forza 3 has is if GT5 is delayed significantly again and the PS3 doesn't get a price-cut. The amount of cars on track alone now in GT5 Prologue is something most of the people I know aren't ready to give up again. They've accepted 6 for long enough, and Race Driver's full grid and tweakable/competitive AI has been a bigger draw for GT owners than Forza 2 ever was.
All this regarding the hardcore of course - and I am one of the most hardcore, because I am one of the very few among those who got an Xbox1 and Xbox360 among others to be able to try out online racing, Forza, PGR, and other racing games supporting Live.
Mind you, on less hardcore level, people who don't buy a system specifically for a racing game, Forza 3 may well be more important, and this is probably a more significant number. And Turn10/Microsoft are definitely working hard to compete with GT - the Le Mans event that was mentioned above, is something that Gran Turismo has been doing for six years or longer - they started well before GT4 even included the Le Mans track in fact, doing endurance races on other tracks before that with big prizes to win. Close cooperation with Logitech for making wheels was present since GT3. Multi-display support using up to six PS2s for creating a full 360 view with up to six TVs was present in GT3 already. Photomode in GT4. All these things Microsoft/Turn10 is picking up on now, which shows you they're still looking to GT for inspiration, and are still looking hard to compete with GT as much as possible.
And I definitely don't mind! Competition is great, and I can always play both. But my guess is it will be a while yet before GT isn't king, especially since pretty much all the complaints of things missing in GT4 are addressed in GT5 to most people's satisfaction.
Joker didn't actually make an argument that the racing space is more competitive. He only pointed out no franchise is irreplaceable. Which was in response to me saying I think the value fo the GT brand goes beyond being just a good racing game at the moment. It's got its finger deep in the driving world, it's still a very strong brand, and as far as a killer app for moving PS3's, it looks to be in a good position. Going forward of course competition might knock it off the top spot, but this thread isn't about that
