Almost 3 Years And PS3's First Party Still Does Not Have A Killer App?

[DuckThor Evil]

If you were that interested yes. Just as if you were that interested in Gears, you'd buy a collections edition with some extras. Most people aren't that interested though, and only interested enough to play the game proper. According to Wiki, GT4 prologue sold 1.36 million copies as a prelude to 9.66 million full game sales.

Exactly, I for one am very interested in GT 5, but will never pay 30e for a demo, not in this life or in the next one either... Well unless I'd get a refund for the full game.

The fact that the demo has sold so much tells few things: one people are desperate to get proper racing games for the PS3 as that is something that is missing from the lineup, and two that Gran Turismo is still HUGE.

 

[Arwin]

Are you calling me desperate? Or is just maybe GT5 Prologue still a very good game, despite 'only' having about 80 tuneable cars on 6 tracks (which you can drive each way), offering a 'limited' online experience with 'only' 16 players at the same time, a great driving model with professional mode and the ability to turn abs off completely for the first time, online leaderboards, an online TV store offering content that you often can't get anywhere else (even though I don't quite enjoy using it - would have preferred to be able to watch those videos from the XMB as well), an amazing cockpit view and even a silly drift mode ...

There's plenty of other racing games out there as well, but Gran Turismo just remains unique, and for a GT fan GT5 Prologue is still pretty awesome. It has certainly helped make the wait easier.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Are you calling me desperate?

You might have em kids fooled, but you ain't fooling me, I know you would do just about anything to get your hands on a full GT 5 game disc :smile:

I said 30, but I think it was 39e if I remember correctly and despite it having fairly large amount of content it's still miniscule compared to the real GT 5 and that's the problem for me. 40e for 1/10 of the full game does not sound good to me + I want to savour myself for the full game, I don't want a small appetizer, instead bring me the 2 pound steak right now! :smile:

I can understand very well though that Prologue can offer great value and time to you and many others. I still think though that the lack of similar competition on the platform helped to make those Prologue sales pretty crazy, but on the hand I don't think any other franchise could sell such numbers of something that essentially is 1/10 of a full game for such a high price.

 

[TheChefO]

If you were that interested yes. Just as if you were that interested in Gears, you'd buy a collections edition with some extras. Most people aren't that interested though, and only interested enough to play the game proper. According to Wiki, GT4 prologue sold 1.36 million copies as a prelude to 9.66 million full game sales. I doubt there's any predetermined relationship between them. Heck, just look at your own example...
If people were that interested in H3, wouldn't they have bought Crackdown to play it early? Out of 10 million H3 owners, only 1.5 million bought Crackdown to play the demo (assuming no-one at all bought the game to play the game...). I can well believe GT5 won't have the same impact as previous GTs, because it isn't head-and-shoulders above the competition any more, but I certainyl wouldn't try to predict GT sales based on prologue sales.

Regards your predictions, what are you predicting? How many PS3's would be sold on the weight of GT5 given a price point? Aggregate GT5 sales given a changing price for PS3? Again I go with the damper on making predictions (aren't I the killjoy!) but we don't know at all how GT is going to evolve as a franchise. Will there be a GT6 when PS3 is $200, or will GT5 just be Gran Turismo and from this point in, DLC and expansions will be constantly rolled out like SingStar?

You're comparing GT4 prologue to GT5 prologue?

You do realize GT3 was already on ps2, right?

If ps3 gamers want the GT experience, they have one choice right now: GT5pro

Let's also consider timeframe... How many years has it been since GT4 came out now? 4? 5?

I'd agree with you if there were already a GT game out on ps3, but come on ...

To think gt5pro isn't giving one a good idea of what to expect is foolish. For GT fans it's the only game in town and has been for a good while now.

As for the pricing relationship, it's where I see potential GT sales at ps3 price points.

If GT5 comes out with ps3 MSRP still at $400, GT5 will sell 3-4million.

Hardly a slouch, but not living up to it's potential.

If Sony can get the ps3 down to $300, it can hit a much larger audience that is willing to spend $300 for a console to play their favorite game (GT5).



As for the Halo comparison... It was a Beta Demo for multiplayer ... Hardly comparable to GT5prologue. It did however draw interest to a good game and help spark sales.

 

[dobwal]

We are talking about different things. What Sony and MS do they are not the focus of the consumer anymore. I am not refering Sony's and MS role in promoting the console. I am pointing to the perception of the consumer regarding the offerings of the console. Its not about MS and Sony games. Its just about games regardless of who is making them and who makes the console.

Thats a superficial observation that doesnt say much about how the PS2 became what it was. And that will need a whole new chapter of discussion.

I observe a general downward trend. Sony just happens to do worse that the others and more significantly because of a bad late start and they came with mostly new unproven IP's, a great deal of which came when the console was not affordable.

The 360's successful exclusive franchises were sequels to big XBOX1 games and/or came when competition was non-existent or too young. We knew Halo, Forza and Fable from before. Gears and Gears 2 are the only completely new IP's that did great. Everything else bombed or did just ok. Sales also indicate to what I stated in my previous post. Only Forza 2 and Gears 2 reached and surpassed the 4 million mark with Gears 2 being a sequel to a 2006 game when competition was almost zero. Everything else released after the maturity of competition are in the range of 2.+ millions.

And just to see the trend PS1 had more successful stories than the PS2 and the PS2 more successful stories than the 360 in the same lifespan.

Thats a given for almost all first gen consoles. Nintendo's, Sony's and MS's most successful IPs all were part of the first gen library of titles including Mario, Zelda, Halo and GT. Only handful of new IPs garner enough popularity to be deemed elite are introduced every generation on new non first gen consoles. Gears, Golden Eye, Wii Fit and DMC are examples of this phenemnom and there is a tendency for the excitement of those titles not to carry beyond to the next gen especially when they are not first party. Third party franchise with long histories make up the rest. GTA, FF, COD and MG are all examples of being around longer then the console that they reached mass success on.

One big difference from this gen from most past gens is that there is no new first gen console this time with a bunch of new IPs being hyped to promote the console. There was the Xbox with Halo last gen, PS1 with GT the gen before and even though Sega had the master system before the Genesis, the Genesis along with Sonic was the first successful foray into the US by Sega.

Non first gen hardware has always had a hard time establishing new high profile titles, first, second or third party in any sort of huge numbers. Its an historical trend for console makers to lean on the IP or IPs originating from first gen hardware to push new gen consoles. Sony's problem is that they tried to flood the PS3 with a bunch of new IPs hoping to make up for all the defections to multiplatform. Sony's userbase has been used to helping themselves to GT, MGS, FF, GTA and a handful of other titles, they weren't going to suddenly flock to a bunch of new IPs just because they were exclusive to the PS3 and made by Sony. The Wii and 360 would of experience the same problem if they delayed their top end franchise years into the gen cycle and tried to compensate with a bunch of new unproven IP. One of the smartest thing MS did was to provide a bunch of proven franchises like GRAW, Morrowind and R6 to the 360's first year library. Sony had much less success with the their new IPs.

If you buy a 1st gen hardware, you generally pretty excited about experience new IPs, but if you buy a console from an established manufacturer, you more than likely wanting to play new versions of IPs that the console is known to offer.

 

[Nesh]

Thats a given for almost all first gen consoles. Nintendo's, Sony's and MS's most successful IPs all were part of the first gen library of titles including Mario, Zelda, Halo and GT. Only handful of new IPs garner enough popularity to be deemed elite are introduced every generation on new non first gen consoles. Gears, Golden Eye, Wii Fit and DMC are examples of this phenemnom and there is a tendency for the excitement of those titles not to carry beyond to the next gen especially when they are not first party. Third party franchise with long histories make up the rest. GTA, FF, COD and MG are all examples of being around longer then the console that they reached mass success on.

One big difference from this gen from most past gens is that there is no new first gen console this time with a bunch of new IPs being hyped to promote the console. There was the Xbox with Halo last gen, PS1 with GT the gen before and even though Sega had the master system before the Genesis, the Genesis along with Sonic was the first successful foray into the US by Sega.

Non first gen hardware has always had a hard time establishing new high profile titles, first, second or third party in any sort of huge numbers. Its an historical trend for console makers to lean on the IP or IPs originating from first gen hardware to push new gen consoles. Sony's problem is that they tried to flood the PS3 with a bunch of new IPs hoping to make up for all the defections to multiplatform. Sony's userbase has been used to helping themselves to GT, MGS, FF, GTA and a handful of other titles, they weren't going to suddenly flock to a bunch of new IPs just because they were exclusive to the PS3 and made by Sony. The Wii and 360 would of experience the same problem if they delayed their top end franchise years into the gen cycle and tried to compensate with a bunch of new unproven IP. One of the smartest thing MS did was to provide a bunch of proven franchises like GRAW, Morrowind and R6 to the 360's first year library. Sony had much less success with the their new IPs.

If you buy a 1st gen hardware, you generally pretty excited about experience new IPs, but if you buy a console from an established manufacturer, you more than likely wanting to play new versions of IPs that the console is known to offer.

Now we are saying the same thing.

So the conclusion is that the majority of successful PS2 and PS1 games came from third party developers that only happened to be released on one platform. It wasnt about being exclusive nor about the games coming from first and 2nd party developers. You yourself allude to that with your own posts.

And its also the timframe and market conditions that help the establishment of franchises. GRAW and R6 arent exclusives and were never ment to be. You know why they and some other games look like a good move to you? Its exactly what I was talking about earlier. Because they were released on the 360 before anyone else would enter the market. The 360 was the only console available thus the only console you could play them on or competition was too young. This is how the timeframe helped units move faster. This is one of the reasons why some 360 games did so brilliant and this is how the 360 managed to build its brand name. On top of being good games, the lack of software from competition and price points helped some titles boost further in sales on a single platform. Its not only about what people want to play. Its about what is available and when relative to the whole market. The consumer is familiar with popularity, what is communicated the easiest to him and the ease of accessibility.

GT5 for example is a potential killer up. But really its impact could be much less than if it was released with less features during launch on a competitively priced console. Even if it is released in 2010 and its 5 times the game it would have been in 2006.

 

[Cornsnake]

Sony's problem is that they tried to flood the PS3 with a bunch of new IPs hoping to make up for all the defections to multiplatform.

Sony may have flooded the PS3 with new IP's, but did they really plan to do that, or is it the result of giving first parties the freedom to create whatever they want? Developers like Naughty Dog and Insomniac have said they like to create IP's with the capabilities of the hardware in mind, making new IP's for new hardware. And I can imagine that most developers would want to try something different far have made multiple games of the same IP. So all these new IP's were bound to happen, and I don't think Sony cares as long as it provides a diverse library of good games. Outside of that there doesn't seem to be an overall direction behind Sony's first parties.

Otherwise I would expect them to do things like putting God of War 2 on the PS3 instead of the PS3, get a first party dev. to make an RPG, ect.

 

[joker454]

Sony's problem is that they tried to flood the PS3 with a bunch of new IPs hoping to make up for all the defections to multiplatform.

I'm not sure that's the case. The huge success of the PS2 era afforded them the cash and luxury of being able to grab all sorts of top talent and dedicate them to making exclusive games and new ip's for current and future platforms, I think that was their plan all along. The difficulty of developing for the PS3 has delayed the release of many of them, but they were probably in the works and/or planning stages many moons ago probably before many of the multi platform defections took place.

The main monkey wrench to their plan was that they 3do'd themselves on console pricing to where the idea of a killer app became impossible even with top talent. In other words, it doesn't matter what their top talent created, it would never be enough to move $600 consoles, and would still be tough to move $400 consoles when a $200 alternative was available. Additionally, some studios will withhold/delay release of their AAA titles until the audience is larger. For example, I personally think that the GT5 folk are waiting for a PS3 price drop before shipping their game. GT is a top tier brand, and it would look really bad if Forza sold more so they don't want to release at current pricing, and instead will just keep tweaking since they can afford to.

 

[TheChefO]

For example, I personally think that the GT5 folk are waiting for a PS3 price drop before shipping their game. GT is a top tier brand, and it would look really bad if Forza sold more so they don't want to release at current pricing, and instead will just keep tweaking since they can afford to.

Indeed.

In fact, timing these two events together would really do them well. Assuming of course that it isn't so far into the future that Forza3 steals too much of their thunder.

 

[specwarGP2]

If GT5 comes out with ps3 MSRP still at $400, GT5 will sell 3-4million.

Hardly a slouch, but not living up to it's potential.

If Sony can get the ps3 down to $300, it can hit a much larger audience that is willing to spend $300 for a console to play their favorite game (GT5).

That's what I've been saying. GT5 is without question a killer app. Sony is just holding off on releasing until a price drop it so they can maximize sales and use GT5's halo effect to shift PS3s.

 

[Nesh]

Whatever floats your boat. I never said the PS3 library was uninteresting. In fact I think I've stated quite often that the PS3 has some critically acclaimed titles. And, in fact, Little Big Planet is one of the titles I most want on all consoles. Price of PS3 and my yearly budget preclude me from adding a PS3 to my living room however.

What I have stated, is that the PS3 exclusive library for the most part hasn't resonated with the PS3 userbase. Which is completely different from thinking or even claiming that the titles are uninteresting.

Which so far is quite different from X360, Wii, PS2, PS1, etc at similar points in their lifetime and/or similar install bases in their lifetime.

Regards,
SB

So? And I have moved farther by explaining why I believe the PS3 exclusive library hasnt resonated with the PS3 userbase and why multiplatofm games managed to do better. So whats the problem?

 

[TheChefO]

So? And I have moved farther by explaining why I believe the PS3 exclusive library hasnt resonated with the PS3 userbase and why multiplatofm games managed to do better. So whats the problem?

It's more than just ps3 being a year later than xb360 though.

PS2 was after Dreamcast
PS1 was after Saturn

Neither Sony platform had any difficulty finding killer apps and neither had any difficulty selling well off of them.

It really is an interesting situation.



If I were in Sony's shoes, I'd be taking a hard look at actually holding GT5 and use it as a launch title for ps4. And on those lines, I'd be looking to beat MS to the punch and launch first. Catch MS sleeping at the wheel a bit here while they are focusing on a "relaunch" of xb360 and pushing Natal. Shift all internal resources to ps4 and build ps4 on a scaled version of ps3. Cellx2 and GTX285 with 1-2gb vram .5-1gb xdr. I'd push that sucker out 2011 and start gaining marketshare again with launch titles like GoW3, and GT5.

Afterward, downscale these titles back to ps3 to leverage that userbase.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

So? And I have moved farther by explaining why I believe the PS3 exclusive library hasnt resonated with the PS3 userbase and why multiplatofm games managed to do better. So whats the problem?

I'll refer you back to your own post. http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1316155&postcount=196

Where it was implied that the current generation isn't mirroring or following trends set by the past generation.

When in fact, only PS3 isn't following or exhibiting behavior similar to past strong consoles.

It could be argued that with regards to 1st and 3rd party exclusives, the PS3 is doing even worse than the original Xbox when you consider the size of the respective install bases.

Regards,
SB

 

[SG79]

It could be argued that with regards to 1st and 3rd party exclusives, the PS3 is doing even worse than the original Xbox when you consider the size of the respective install bases.

Regards,
SB

First party? Only compared to Halo. First party support of the PS3 is fantastic and many of its best titles are from Sony/ND/Insomniac. It would be true for third party if you ignore the nature of today's market where over 90% of third party titles are multiplatform unlike previous gens, then sure (even the 360 and Wii look bad in that regard). In the previous two gens, the PS1 and PS2 were exclusive hogs.

Particularly as of late, this gen's third party exclusives for the most part consistent of timed ones. Granted, that helps a manufacturer to an extent, but you get my point.

 

[Arwin]

I don't think any other franchise could sell such numbers of something that essentially is 1/10 of a full game for such a high price.

1/10th of a full Gran Turismo, probably yes. But that says more about the size of Gran Turismo than of the average racing game, yes?

 

[Cornsnake]

Why wait until a price drop to release GT5? Just look at the numbers TheChefO posted.

GT1 10.85 million.
GT2 9.37 million.
GT3 14.87 million.
GT4 9.66 million.

Both times the game released first on the platform outsold the second even though there was a larger user base.

When someone buys a PS3 its not just for the games that are going to be released, but also for the games that have been released. So they'll get some of the big names like MGS4, KZ2, and LBP. GT5 is the same way. It'll be picked up along with a PS3 long after release.

Forza isn't like GT just as Killzone isn't like Halo. The fans of the more popular franchise will have decided to buy any of its games long before considering the competition.

 

[TheChefO]

Why wait until a price drop to release GT5?

Well, even this late in the game, the ps3 is still priced higher than even the entry prices of ps1 and ps2 ... that has a lot to do with why they should time both a price cut and gt5 to maximize both.

 

[Cornsnake]

Well, even this late in the game, the ps3 is still priced higher than even the entry prices of ps1 and ps2 ... that has a lot to do with why they should time both a price cut and gt5 to maximize both.

I'm not sure that's true, in the US maybe. But here in Europe I've paid just as much for my launch PS2 as my launch PS3. Its price was always lagging behind that of the US.


Edit:

And a price drop could happen this year, while GT5 is mostly likely a 2010 or later game. In any case I dont think one is going to wait around for the other. We'll probably see GT5 bundled with a PS3 and sold at discount compared to what a PS3 would cost at that point and buying the game separately.

 

[TheChefO]

I'm not sure that's true, in the US maybe. But here in Europe I've paid just as much for my launch PS2 as my launch PS3. Its price was always lagging behind that of the US.

Wow.

Yeah, here in the US it's still $400.

PS1 and ps2 both launched at $300.

BTW, ps2 was $200 after a year and a half.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I'm not sure that's true, in the US maybe. But here in Europe I've paid just as much for my launch PS2 as my launch PS3. Its price was always lagging behind that of the US.

Where are you at? PS2 was about 500e, and PS3 was 600e in most European countries. In Finland it was about 550e for PS2 and 680e for PS3. Now you can get it for about 340-350e here.