Wii success will not last, says developer

[ERP]

I don't think it would end the arms race at all. I think there is room for both to do very well. I don't see the Wii slowing down for a long time. That does not mean MS or sony can not get off their butts get pricing under control. I think the 360 and PS3 can both be very profitable and do very well if they get pricing under control asap. I think a 100 dollar price drop and we would see 360s flying off the shelf with the fall line up MS has. The only thing that has screwed up HD gaming is the cost of blue ray and the adoption of HD-TVs.

Actually I think it will be a close race this time, but if Nintendo demonstrates that you can be competitive without the huge risk and upfront development costs of an advanced hardware platform, why would an MS or Sony take the risk with a PS4 or XBox720?

On the high dollar project front the argument is much the same, budget is fundamentally coupled to projected sales and ROI, and publishers will be willing to put more money in where there is a greater percieved upside. That doesn't mean genres will disapear, just that high budget titles will become less common in those now niche genres. When was the last time a company invested a lot in a 2D side scroller or a 2D shooter?

 

[Scott_Arm]

Actually I think it will be a close race this time, but if Nintendo demonstrates that you can be competitive without the huge risk and upfront development costs of an advanced hardware platform, why would an MS or Sony take the risk with a PS4 or XBox720?

On the high dollar project front the argument is much the same, budget is fundamentally coupled to projected sales and ROI, and publishers will be willing to put more money in where there is a greater percieved upside. That doesn't mean genres will disapear, just that high budget titles will become less common in those now niche genres. When was the last time a company invested a lot in a 2D side scroller or a 2D shooter?

I think Nintendo is essentially skipping a generation. They don't have obscenely deep pockets like Microsoft, so the Wii was a huge risk taking move for them. In that sense, they just couldn't afford to build a hugely powerful machine like the PS3 or the 360. Their next gen machine will start pushing the hardware again, though probably at a more moderate and financially responsible approach than what Sony or MS has been doing. MS and Sony may take a moderate approach to their next gen systems. It sucks from a technology point of view, but I think things will continue to grow smoothly, though not at quite the same rapid pace we've seen previously. The PC space, however, will probably keep pushing as hard as ever, so there's always that.

 

[pc999]

At some level I really hope he's right, because Nintendo cleaning up this gen will mean the end of the technology arms race in consoles and the end to big budget game in a lot of game genres I happen to enjoy.

As long as there is a market for that games (and indeed there is) there shouldnt be any problem, probably it wouldnt be as many (we already see that hapening with Resident Evil:UC) but that may even make the overall qualitity of games get a lot higher and give some room try new things within the genres.

Plus wouldnt it be more a case of new arms to race I mean every body would try to get the best next/new gen interface and tech to help it interact with the world and make more complex games with the new interfaces (after all todays complex games all evolved from really simple games).

 

[Scott_Arm]

I dont feel like discussing when someone assumes too much and puts words into my mouth.

I apologize. I definitely spoke too strongly. There's a weird elitist attitude a lot of hardcore gamers carry towards Wii players/owners. I'm not sure why it bothers me, but I definitely overreacted to what you'd written.

 

[Scott_Arm]

As long as there is a market for that games (and indeed there is) there shouldnt be any problem, probably it wouldnt be as many (we already see that hapening with Resident Evil:UC) but that may even make the overall qualitity of games get a lot higher and give some room try new things within the genres.

Plus wouldnt it be more a case of new arms to race I mean every body would try to get the best next/new gen interface and tech to help it interact with the world and make more complex games with the new interfaces (after all todays complex games all evolved from really simple games).

That's true. During the mid 90s when realtime 3D graphics started to show up, there was a lot of talk about virtual reality systems. They've gotten away from that for a while. They've pushed the visuals and the audio, but haven't really been working towards virtual reality input in the consumer space. Maybe the Wii wand is a really primitive push in that direction.

 

[ninzel]

Actually I think it will be a close race this time, but if Nintendo demonstrates that you can be competitive without the huge risk and upfront development costs of an advanced hardware platform, why would an MS or Sony take the risk with a PS4 or XBox720?

Because if they don't someone else will. As long as desires created a demand for something,someone comes along and fills that demand and finds a way to make money from it. That's just the way the world works,always has and always will.

 

[Eteric]

I don't think the console technology arms race will end, but it will likely slow down. And in all honesty, it needs to.

Like it or not, the harder we push for high end technology, the higher the price goes. And higher the price goes, the smaller the group of people who would buy a console gets.

And really, you don't want people getting fed up with high prices. But alas, higher prices are here.

I don't mind having good technology, but when it drives systems to cost $400 to $600 a piece with $60 games, I want no part of it. Now, the arguements against that may be inflation or something else. But the funny thing about people is they don't forget those times when things were cheaper. I always hear my mom talking about gass prices in the 70s and 80s.

If people didn't "need" gas, I'm betting they wouldn't stand for it.

So yeah, I can see the generation after this costing around $300 per console. It's going to be a strange generation, though. I don't know if MS and Sony will be caught off guard again.

 

[quest55720]

I would not worry about the arms race ending atleast 1 of the 3 will have a big horse power console. The arms race won't end at but the out of control pricing will end IMO. The PS2 managed to be cutting edge for 299 dollars as did the PS1.

What some of the hardcore gamers should be worried about is waggle becoming the new standard on the 720 or PS3. It was the waggle that has won just as many people over as the price.

 

[Nesh]

I apologize. I definitely spoke too strongly. There's a weird elitist attitude a lot of hardcore gamers carry towards Wii players/owners. I'm not sure why it bothers me, but I definitely overreacted to what you'd written.

Apology accepted

If you want though you can tell me which parts of my post you want me to explain what I ment

 

[digitalwanderer]

You still gotta hunt for a Wii if you want to buy one around here, once that changes I'll start taking these "teh Wii is teh fad!" threads a bit more seriously.

I think y'all are really overestimating the discerning tastes of the masses, they ain't got 'em.

 

[Npl]

Hopefully it will die a silent and abrupt death like the Tamagotchi-Craze did, silent because no one would want to admit what they wasted their time with

 

[Eteric]

I would not worry about the arms race ending atleast 1 of the 3 will have a big horse power console. The arms race won't end at but the out of control pricing will end IMO. The PS2 managed to be cutting edge for 299 dollars as did the PS1.

What some of the hardcore gamers should be worried about is waggle becoming the new standard on the 720 or PS3. It was the waggle that has won just as many people over as the price.

Exactly. They won't take it so far next time.

I wouldn't mind waggle becoming a standard, but what I predict will happen next generation is that each system will come with both types of controllers. That, or the controllers will be able to sort of "change" into one or the other. Image (if you will), a Wii controller with a small touch LCD screen where the "A" buttom currently resides. Imagine if developers could use that small LCD screen, to put what ever button arrangement they want. For a game like Wii Sports, you could put just the A button, but for a fighting game you could put the A, B, C, and D.

That would be truely interesting. I'm not sure if it would work, but I think people will have a choice next generation.

But yeah, I don't think gaming systems will be so insanely priced next time around. I think you're going to see systems that have multiple abilities (like they do now, actually), but they'll still be around $300.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The hardcore market would likely shift to PC's esp. if Games for Windows actually do provide convience for PC users. Right now, the PC maintainence is a pain to deal with.

PC gaming could be marketed well towards the hardcore crowd if the arms race ended due to Wii dominance.

I can't believe that. 'Hardcore' is too general a term in this case to cover the real market. Those who truly are hard-core might be willing to spend $300+ a year to maintain a gaming rig (ignoring all the crap with PC games, whatever label they may try to stick on the cases. Mixed hardware will always be a pig to deal with), but there's lots of people like me and my friends who like the existing game styles but aren't going to the expense and hassle of gaming on PC.

 

[ninzel]

I'm hoping the sharp contrast between the Wii and 360/PS3 will result in a more balanced system next gen. The Wii is too little for some crowds,the 360/PS3 is too much.
A more well balanced system could improve on technology resulting in better graphics, while still keeping on eye on costs.
Maybe $325-350 USD could be the new launch price sweet spot in the future. This would still provide enough for technology while helping to push systems faster in to the market so we don't have to wait so long for the installed base to build and wait for such a slow roll out of games. And not just more games,but more games of a different variety and costs right off the bat.

 

[Teasy]

Hopefully it will die a silent and abrupt death like the Tamagotchi-Craze did, silent because no one would want to admit what they wasted their time with

Hopefully one day fan-boyism will die a silent and abrupt death. Then maybe people like you could concentrate more on what you want to play and less on what you think other people should play..

 

[Skrying]

I am a lesser gamer for wanting a Wii, thanks everyone for your very informed thoughts on this matter.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I am a lesser gamer for wanting a Wii, thanks everyone for your very informed thoughts on this matter.

Ha ha ha, there's a lot of that goin' around here.

 

[pakotlar]

I'm hoping the sharp contrast between the Wii and 360/PS3 will result in a more balanced system next gen. The Wii is too little for some crowds,the 360/PS3 is too much.
A more well balanced system could improve on technology resulting in better graphics, while still keeping on eye on costs.
Maybe $325-350 USD could be the new launch price sweet spot in the future. This would still provide enough for technology while helping to push systems faster in to the market so we don't have to wait so long for the installed base to build and wait for such a slow roll out of games. And not just more games,but more games of a different variety and costs right off the bat.

If you mean that 360 is too expensive, I would agree. The PS3 is in a seperate price bracket too, don't forget. Especially since 360 will see a $100 price drop soon. However, I do not believe that 360 or PS3 are underpowered. If anything I have been dissapointed lately with the performance of some of my 360 games.

Also, a $350 launch point that you suggest would be no different than the $399 price point that 360 launched at for the majority of consumers. Don't forget that there was a serviceable $299 sku as well, which stayed under 350 even including the cost of memory card.

I do agree that I would like to see a paradigm shift which melds the innovations of wii with those of consoles like PS3, which make it a system that both has options like interesting gameplay mechanics and all encompassing media player. PS3 and 360 both did something right and wrong. I would like to see for next generation the expected leap in performance + user upgradeable HD, HD player, media center extension, networking capabilities. This + things like eye toy and wii mote would be good.

However, we are focusing on the wrong things. The real innovation that Wii had wasnt really the Wiimote, but the price point. I believe that you will see a similar wii-wand (oh god ) on both PS3 and 360 before the end of this generation, and these accessories will be available at launch for the next-gen systems.

What the Wii did amazingly well was market itself at the casual consumer, even if it was no more a "casual" system than the 360 core was. Next generation expect to see Microsoft and Sony marketing much more heavily games and mechanics that are "Casual" friendly. These consoles will be two faced.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Neither the PS3 nor the 360 were ever designed with gaming as their primary purpose.

The Wii is the only console that was. Which is why it is cheaper and offers a different experience to a different audience.

Neither the PS4 nor the 720 will be designed with gaming as their primary purpose.

The 360 and PS3 aren't just expensive and powerful because they want to push the envelope on graphics and AI. Both systems are using their processing power to provide services that are non-gaming related.

Both Sony and MS could have produced less-powerful, cheaper, and more easily accessible consoles like Nintendo did.

They chose not to, because they have a business plan that is completely different than Nintendo's. And unless their business plans change between now and the launch of their next console, they aren't going to do ANY "copying" of Nintendo's Wii-strategy.

 

[Eteric]

Trying to copy the Wii-mote this generation would be doomed to failure anyway. The Wii is the "motion sensing" system in the eyes of the public, not to mention the Wii-mote comes with the system.

But yeah, I think we'll see a bigger jump from Nintendo than we did this generation next time. Mainly because I don't think they can push the GC architecture any more.