Almost 3 Years And PS3's First Party Still Does Not Have A Killer App?

[TheChefO]

This isn't about people making an informed choice about the best driving simulator, but people buying the brand they associate with ...

Offering a better product at a cheaper price does not guarantee displacing the number one brand!...

I'm sure most people that own a ps3 that are GT fans will get GT5, but in order for this to be considered a "killer app" it will have to convince people that don't have a ps3, to buy a ps3 to play gt5.

I think it can and will, but it's ability to draw people in will be diminished due to higher costs and a viable alternative in Forza3.

I'm not saying the tables will be reversed here and F3 will take the top spot from GT5, but it will grab some marketshare.

For comparison:

Forza 1 sold 1.01m
Forza 2 sold 4m


I know you don't think this has ANY impact whatsoever, but GT5 Prologue sold 3m. Like it or not, prologue is the only GT experience on a next gen console. GT Prologues before this one had been released after a full fledged GT was already on the platform, hence the significantly higher sales rate than GTP4.

 

[TheChefO]

Joker didn't actually make an argument that the racing space is more competitive.

......

There is *significantly* more competition now in the driving game genre compared to back then. Back then GT was the only game in town except for maybe Burnout, but now there are multiple amazing choices in the genre. So, will people still really pay ~$500 just to play GT5? I don't think that is a risk they should take because if they gamble and it doesn't move PS3's then it only helps the competition. They really should wait for a price drop.

Going forward of course competition might knock it off the top spot, but this thread isn't about that.

Sure it is.

If there is strong competition that is competing directly with a potential system seller, it will impact the ability of that potential system seller to move boxes.

 

[Arwin]

I know you don't think this has ANY impact whatsoever, but GT5 Prologue sold 3m. Like it or not, prologue is the only GT experience on a next gen console. GT Prologues before this one had been released after a full fledged GT was already on the platform, hence the significantly higher sales rate than GTP4.

Not the only reason though ... GT5 Prologue offers a heck of a lot more than GT4 Prologue ever did.

 

[TheChefO]

Not the only reason though ... GT5 Prologue offers a heck of a lot more than GT4 Prologue ever did.

This too.

I'm just trying to get the point across that GT5 pro is an indicator of interest in gt5.

At the current price level of ps3, I wouldn't expect gt5 to sell significantly more than gt5pro.

If they can introduce a slim ps3 with a $100 price reduction, then we're talking sales.

 

[Cornsnake]

I thought GT4P was never released in the US?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'm sure most people that own a ps3 that are GT fans will get GT5, but in order for this to be considered a "killer app" it will have to convince people that don't have a ps3, to buy a ps3 to play gt5.

If the people who bought PS3's did so in order to play GT5, it's alredy served as a kiler app, even if the game never releases!

Sure it is (discussing GT competition)...

Okay, yes, things are getting muddled. Forza is competition for GT. It's on a cheaper platform. I don't refute any of this, as it's all true. My point was the GT franchise is curently bigger than just a game, whereas I think Forza is just a game. THus the worth of GT to PS3 can't really be viewed as 'it's a racer in a market with other racers.' It's the same for KZ versus Halo. Anyone who said 'Halo is facing competition with Killzone 2' back in the day would have missed the point that Halo is bigger than just being a shooter. It is the shooter. It's the shooter that, no matter what other shooters are released, shooter fans will buy. Gt isn't just another racing game along with Forza, PGR, Burnout, DiRT, etc. It stands alone as part of the whole car scene, such that people who are not into games but are into cars know about GT and its influence.

I'm just trying to get the point across that GT5 pro is an indicator of interest in gt5.

It is an indicator, but it's an indicator without any calibration such that we can't make or predict measurements. It's like looking up at the sy and seeing dark clouds and predicting rain was going to fall. You couldn't say how much rain, nor even if it'd hail instead. It's like a Galileo thermometer where you can see the bulbs rising and dropping, but you don't know what density they are or what temperature they relate to.

I have two friends who are likely to get GT5 who haven't bought GT5P. If that's standard, then only 1:3 GT buyers have Prologue, meaning sales of 9 million. That'd be a stupid prediction to make though because I can't say for sure these two people are representative. I don't have enough information. Likewise we can't say "3 million sales of Prologue means less interest in GT" or increasing interest or stable interest or any particular degree of any interest at any pricepoint, other than 3 million people thought GT5P on an expensive PS3 was worth it for them!

 

[specwarGP2]

...and Atari used to be synonymous with video games, ingrained in popular culture as the absolute place to be for gaming. No way that could ever change I suppose? The one absolute thing that the history of video games teaches is that people are fickle, and ultimately everything is replaceable.

I'm not so sure about that. Some franchises are untouchable. Like mario for instance. Something about mario games just clicks with gamers. I'd say the same goes for GT. GT is like the Michael Jordan of driving games

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I don't think anything is untouchable. it might be pretty stable, but the world moves on. Walkman used to be untouchable. Now it's iPod. Nintendo gave way to Sony who are now on the back foot. iPod won't last for ever. I think GT is still in a strong pole position, but they cannot rest on their laurels.

 

[rekator]

For a return of the start topic, my feeling is that Sony totally weak their Marketing studies for many exclusives… They launched PS3 exclusives (like Lair, HS, Motorstorm) who targeting the 200€/$ PS2 owners when the PS3 was 600€/$.
The only exclusives that can interested other people than Sony Fan, games fan, tech worries and Blu-ray users, and sell them a PS3 at 600€/$ is probably a GT game.
But more the time past more I known Fan cars and racers look closer to FM3 if they don't already take FM2, but yes is not the majority, more the hardcore of them, so they probably take also GT when PS3 arrived around 250€. 250€ seem to be the real psychological step, note that a 300€ PS3+GT5 pack is really the target for a mass adoption from them.

 

[Zassk]

Is there any realistic prospect of MS getting legacy wheels to work on the 360? I don't know much about these wheels but they seem to be a significant factor re: GT loyalty. I assume all of them work with the PS3.

 

[TheChefO]

...It's the same for KZ versus Halo. Anyone who said 'Halo is facing competition with Killzone 2' back in the day would have missed the point that Halo is bigger than just being a shooter.....

Not quite.

Halo's big draw is the online multiplayer. The second biggest is the Character/story/world that has been created.

The online multiplayer aspect can be challenged and duplicated and improved upon to steal marketshare. Sony is attempting to do this with MAG.

The second part isn't so easy. Fans that like the Characters and story of the franchise want to see more of that world. Just like fans of Starwars or Harry Potter. Sony attempted to do this a bit with KZ, but it seemed more like it was trying to compete with Gears. Even so, Halo will have fans as long as they don't screw up the franchise.



GT has no second part. It's cars and tracks. There is no story, no characters, no fantasy world to imagine "what's next". The competition for cars and tracks is simple to duplicate, it just takes time and money.

I'm not refuting that GT is the mindshare winner ATM of realistic racing game, but what I'm saying is it has no draw that is uniquely GT that no other dev can claim. That is a weakness that can be exploited over time if the right conditions exist.

 

[Phil]

Is there any realistic prospect of MS getting legacy wheels to work on the 360? I don't know much about these wheels but they seem to be a significant factor re: GT loyalty. I assume all of them work with the PS3.

If you mean support for Logitech wheels on the X360, then no, don't expect that to happen. It seems to be a hardware issue (as well as licencing).

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Is there any realistic prospect of MS getting legacy wheels to work on the 360? I don't know much about these wheels but they seem to be a significant factor re: GT loyalty. I assume all of them work with the PS3.

Don't hold your breath for legacy controllers on X360. Controllers for X360 must be licensed and include an encrypted chip to interface with the X360.

And MS doesn't give out those licenses easily even to companies willing to pay to include the required chip.

It's a combination of quality control and security. If it was just MS wanting more money they'd give out the license to anyone willing to pay for it, but they aren't doing that.

Regards,
SB

 

[Nesh]

If you mean support for Logitech wheels on the X360, then no, don't expect that to happen. It seems to be a hardware issue (as well as licencing).

I think there is a logitech steering for the 360 but not the G25. My friend bought one and had the 360 power button on the wheel but he hasnt used it yet.

 

[Arwin]

Yes, there is one Logitech wheel specific to the 360, but no compatibility with existing models for PC.

 

[catisfit]

GT has no second part. It's cars and tracks. There is no story, no characters, no fantasy world to imagine "what's next". The competition for cars and tracks is simple to duplicate, it just takes time and money.

I'm not refuting that GT is the mindshare winner ATM of realistic racing game, but what I'm saying is it has no draw that is uniquely GT that no other dev can claim. That is a weakness that can be exploited over time if the right conditions exist.

If you distill it down to just "cars and tracks", then sure you can replicate that with just time and money. Even then, nobody has done. GT is much more than that, though. The franchise has been synonymous with the best physics and graphics in console racing games for three generations, over a decade. It's the top selling game on both PS1 and PS2, and it has an almost religious following, especially here (Europe).

There isn't another game on consoles which comes close to the quality of simulation, graphical fidelity, at 1080p with 16 cars on track at once, and that's excluding the "cars and tracks" argument entirely. The nearest is probably Supercar Challenge based on the beta, and while very good (it meets the last 2 points and goes some way towards the first), it's still a long way off GT standards.

Even if a game came along which could equal every single feature of GT, it would still have the history of the GT franchise to compete with. Nothing is untouchable, but GT is about as close as it gets.

 

[catisfit]

Yes, there is one Logitech wheel specific to the 360, but no compatibility with existing models for PC.

It is a shame, the only truly crossplatform wheel I know of is this one. But at €499.95 it's a bit out of budget

As it is, I'm stuck with my PC/PS3 wheel, and pad for 360. The idea of buying an inferior wheel just for 360 and having to swap in and out depending on which game I want to play doesn't sit right. But a good crossplatform wheel for €150 would be an instant purchase.

 

[Squilliam]

I just ordered the wheel stand and adapter for the 360 wheel and was probably going to purchase the clubsport edition later for my PS3/360 and I am really really really bad at racers.

Then I guess Forza 3 must be a first day purchase for you too? Im also terrible at racers though I like them so. Automated braking is an absolute WIN for me!