Wii success will not last, says developer

[quest55720]

Trying to copy the Wii-mote this generation would be doomed to failure anyway. The Wii is the "motion sensing" system in the eyes of the public, not to mention the Wii-mote comes with the system.

But yeah, I think we'll see a bigger jump from Nintendo than we did this generation next time. Mainly because I don't think they can push the GC architecture any more.

The Wii2 will be a major step up from the Wii for the simple fact is HD tvs will be the standard when the next gen starts. I can see Nintendo targeting 720p with a system 2-3x more powerfull than the 360 and a much improved WiiMote2. I see sony and MS targeting 1080p with cutting edge systems.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Trying to copy the Wii-mote this generation would be doomed to failure anyway. The Wii is the "motion sensing" system in the eyes of the public, not to mention the Wii-mote comes with the system.

But yeah, I think we'll see a bigger jump from Nintendo than we did this generation next time. Mainly because I don't think they can push the GC architecture any more.

I could see Sony or MS building some of the wiimote functionality into a standard controller, like the six-axis with some pointing ability, maybe.

 

[Natoma]

I also think there is a difference between bad, and less good gfx. Its not like the wii isnt capable of good gfx, just look at mario and mp3. Those arnt bad gfx, they are just less good than ps3/x360 gfx and I think with the exeption of the gfx whores no sane person would complain about wii gfx.

Agreed. In addition, not everyone wants to play games with the Gears of War/Too Human/Mass Effect plastic "barbie-doll" look. They're gorgeous games, but I'm more drawn to graphics like Ratchet & Clank, MP3, Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros, Little Big Planet, etc.

Someone posted a sig or a quote a few months ago that stated that what people are looking for isn't necessary reality, but surreality.

It would frighten and disturb me greatly, for example, to play Manhunt with 360/PS3 graphics.

Not all graphics need to be photo-realistic, or attempt photorealism, in order to be "good" or "next-gen".

 

[Nesh]

Someone posted a sig or a quote a few months ago that stated that what people are looking for isn't necessary reality, but surreality.

I think it was someone who quoted nAo and I d agree with.

But I d have to point out at the same time that not everyone wants to play with games that have a similar visual style to the games you mentioned either.

It all depends on the genre and some reality themed games dont necessarilly follow a completely realistic look.

You will see people nitpicking Rachet and Clank and comparing it unfairly with realistic games (see Far Cry ), you will see people demanding Gran Turismo to look completely real, and others marveling Uncharted's (or Heavenly Sword's)visuals that despite that it has a realistic theme, it also maintains a "surreal" look with rich colors and lighting.

 

[pakotlar]

And Nintendo says they're going to sell 100 million. Who to believe..

 

[poopypoo]

At some level I really hope he's right, because Nintendo cleaning up this gen will mean the end of the technology arms race in consoles and the end to big budget game in a lot of game genres I happen to enjoy.

...i don't get this either. Wouldn't big budget games just have more and more people working on gameplay? or added models for worlds five and six times as large as we'd ever seen before? or even huger catalogs of rosters (for sports games), multiple hours of symphonic soundtracks, better integration with online services..? As long as the market is there, the suppliers will adapt -- thus, "big budget" of the Wii's future might mean the best-ever (most detailed, not most graphically detailed) Harvest Moon instead of Battlefield 402985 with better graphics -- and I'm 100% for that.

 

[pipo]

As long as the market is there, the suppliers will adapt -- thus, "big budget" of the Wii's future might mean the best-ever (most detailed, not most graphically detailed) Harvest Moon instead of Battlefield 402985 with better graphics -- and I'm 100% for that.

Hmm. So far I'm seeing a souped up Zelda and RE4. I'm not sure Harvest Moon 5763 will be that much better.

When you look at stuff like Forza or MotorStorm it's just as much about tech as it is graphics. And it makes a difference.

 

[borowki]

According to a recent study, 75% of Americans are going to be fat by 2015. The same problem, of course, exists in most developed countries as well. If the Wii manages to maintain the image of the "fitness console," it could be successful well into the future.

 

[Nesh]

According to a recent study, 75% of Americans are going to be fat by 2015. The same problem, of course, exists in most developed countries as well. If the Wii manages to maintain the image of the "fitness console," it could be successful well into the future.

I doubt it will be preferred more than what telemarketing has. People have been trying fitness equipment and special diets for ages to no avail.

How can a square piece of plastic be more effective or convince people it is more effective?

Also many people seem to prefer videogames than other hobbies because it doesnt involve workout.

On the other hand people seem to accept things that are popular and make them part of their lives so Wii might succeed in that judging by its huge popularity it is gaining. Videogames and Workout through Wii

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I doubt it will be preferred more than what telemarketing has. People have been trying fitness equipment and special diets for ages to no avail.

How can a square piece of plastic be more effective or convince people it is more effective?

Because exercise is boring. There's no innate incentive to keep at it for many people. A computer game is enjoyable, so is a means to take your exercise without it feeling like a chore. Like cod-liver oil. It's good for you and people knew it was, but didn't take it because it tasted bad. The moment tasteless capsules became available, cod-liver oil was something you could take. Working hard to exercise is no fun. Having fun that happens to be exercise too serves both purposes.

 

[Arwin]

There's actually a large scale experiment in the US with PS2s and dancemats for overweight kids. So go figure.

 

[tha_con]

I say once the PS3 and / or 360 hit a price point of $299 the Wii's success will fade very quickly.

If you want my take on it, this is the Hula Hoop of 'our' generation. The madness will end, soon enough.

 

[jandar]

I say once the PS3 and / or 360 hit a price point of $299 the Wii's success will fade very quickly.

If you want my take on it, this is the Hula Hoop of 'our' generation. The madness will end, soon enough.

As soon as both the 360 & PS3 are at 299.99 for the "premium" versions, Wii will be at 149.99.

Nintendo has hit a sweet spot with innovation and price point compared to the other consoles this round.

Fads don't last for 8 months.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

And price doesnt isnt everything either. GC has been 99 for ages when ps2 was still 175+ around here, that didnt help nintendo anything. Its important to have your console at a price which is considerd accaptable by the main public but there will still be a whole bunch of other reasons for people to buy a certain console.

 

[pakotlar]

Neither the PS3 nor the 360 were ever designed with gaming as their primary purpose.

Microsoft would disagree with you. If they didn't design the 360 with gaming in mind, why would they spend the majority of their 360 budget on game dev, xbl, xbla, game-related skins, and waste huge amounts of money on marketing titles. Pretty dumb of them don't u think? The only money they spend on anything else in fact is whateve fixed cost their was for developing the code for mce, and networking capabilities with PC. Oh and the HD-DVD accessory, but that was because of sony.

I would probably have to agree that yep Sony focused way too much on making the PS3 an all-in-one device (what with the card-reader and all). But they're still spending way more money on game dev, game services, and game marketing (not to mention buying exclusives). Even in their case the primary focus is gaming.

I know what ur saying.

 

[pakotlar]

Fads don't last for 8 months.

They last a lot longer than that.

 

[pipo]

The market Nintendo's after doesn't care for HD graphics. Luckily for them it's bigger than the the share that demands HD.

I can see the DS vs PSP thing happening all over again.

They will sell a lot of systems, but the funny thing is MS and Sony will benefit from that too.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Microsoft would disagree with you. If they didn't design the 360 with gaming in mind, why would they spend the majority of their 360 budget on game dev, xbl, xbla, game-related skins, and waste huge amounts of money on marketing titles. Pretty dumb of them don't u think?

Um, no. Because those are things needed to sell the 360 to consumers. Those are the costs involved in getting the consumer to purchase the 360, it demonstrates nothing about MS's purpose for 360 development and sales.

As far as dumb, on the contrary, it's genius. Even with the latest losses due to hardware failures and the losses from the first Xbox launch, the potential revenue stream that MS is actually creating out of thin air is truly remarkable.

 

[tha_con]

As soon as both the 360 & PS3 are at 299.99 for the "premium" versions, Wii will be at 149.99.

Nintendo has hit a sweet spot with innovation and price point compared to the other consoles this round.

Fads don't last for 8 months.

And that matters why?

You don't think that people won't be willing to pay twice the price for more than twice the functionality? By the time the PS3 and 360 are $299, their feature set and library will be filled with utterly ridiculous titles that will sell like wild fire, plus an amazing 'Greatest Hits' catalogue.

What bizzare world are you from, btw, where fads don't last for 8 months? Please try to tell me that more than 50% of Wii owners play anything more than the minigames available on the system. Please. It's almost a sure bet that the people who bought Wii right off the bat will not be the same people to help keep the system afloat with software sales. Try not to confuse the North American Market with the Japanese market.

Also, the DS v PSP is quite a different world. The DS and PSP are both very different, the PSP being more so because it's more "mature" as both a product and it's software. Not to mention it's more expensive. But that still doesn't stop the PSP from being as successful as the PS2.

My point is, it doesn't really matter if the Wii keep selling, or doesn't, what does matter, however, is that the sales will slow a lot once the PS3 and 360 hit price points of $299.

 

[Eteric]

And that matters why?

You don't think that people won't be willing to pay twice the price for more than twice the functionality? By the time the PS3 and 360 are $299, their feature set and library will be filled with utterly ridiculous titles that will sell like wild fire, plus an amazing 'Greatest Hits' catalogue.

What bizzare world are you from, btw, where fads don't last for 8 months? Please try to tell me that more than 50% of Wii owners play anything more than the minigames available on the system. Please. It's almost a sure bet that the people who bought Wii right off the bat will not be the same people to help keep the system afloat with software sales. Try not to confuse the North American Market with the Japanese market.

Also, the DS v PSP is quite a different world. The DS and PSP are both very different, the PSP being more so because it's more "mature" as both a product and it's software. Not to mention it's more expensive. But that still doesn't stop the PSP from being as successful as the PS2.

My point is, it doesn't really matter if the Wii keep selling, or doesn't, what does matter, however, is that the sales will slow a lot once the PS3 and 360 hit price points of $299.

I'm going to have to disagree with you pretty much across the board.

When the Wii-mote was shown at E305 (I think it was 05), it wasn't the promise of making games simpler to pick up to play, or the mini-games, or Nintendo franchises that got the attention of the gaming world. It was the idea that it could open up new control methods such as sword fighting, and bring FPS on consoles closer to their mouse and keyboard PC counter parts.

It was like a huge brainstorm that went through the gaming world at once.

So, I'm willing to bet that many Wii owners are the hardcore type. I'm also willing to bet that they're waiting for more hardcore games as well. It doesn't mean smaller games won't sell, as hardcore gamers play those sometimes as well, but they're waiting for games with "meat" on them.

One piece of evidence is Resident Evil 4's reception on the Wii. It's supposedly sold a lot (we'll find out exactly how much this evening), and it's the same with Dragon Quest Swords in Japan.

Is there a new audience? Sure! But I don't think it makes up a majority. In fact, I believe one website (I forget who) said that only 10% of Wii owners were new gamers. While 10% is awesome for expansion of the industry, that still leaves another 90% who have played games before waiting for more stuff.

Also, by the time the 360 and PS3 are $299, the Wii will likely be $99. So really, it won't matter. By that time, a lot of people will be able to buy more than one console, and everyone will be able to get a share of the living room.