How informative the absolute numbers are depends on the size of the market
SCEA announces holiday sales figures (PSP: 1.4m, PS2: 1.3m, PS3: 1.2m)
- Thread starter Titanio
- Start date
How informative the absolute numbers are depends on the size of the market
Has the population of the US somehow become a mystery?
Regarding USA sales, from http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8374&Itemid=2
Using these numbers as a base, if the PS3 were to equal the 360's sales in 2008, it would have to sell approximately 5.5 million more units than it during the year. This would require a >450k monthly sales gap in favour of the PS3. The PS3 has never outsold the 360 in a single month IIRC. That's just not a realistic situation.
It's hard to see a situation where this ever happens, unless the 360 is completely removed from the market. Looking at this chart, that would be a very unlikely scenario, no matter how much doom and gloom people try to throw on the system. Hell, we even have people in this very thread saying this will be the systems last year! Crazy talk, IMO.
It will be more informative if we had graphs of all the periods
Do you know how big the specific market is? And even if we assume that the whole US population buys consoles it can show even more how irrelevant an absolute number can be
Do you know how big the specific market is? And even if we assume that the whole US population buys consoles it can show even more how irrelevant an absolute number can be
This is a life to date chart. What more do you want other than the whole life of each of the machines?
FYI December's numbers aren't out yet... give it a few days.
December will most likely increase the gap again. The real question is wether japanese sales and the supposed advantage in the EU can compensate for this difference.
Also, it is true that as the user bases increase in size, the difference in % will become less important. However, the problem is that as the X360's price drops to $200, it will give a fairly large long-term boost to the monthly sales, so it's very likely that it'll pull away from the PS3 even faster for a while...
Also, it is true that as the user bases increase in size, the difference in % will become less important. However, the problem is that as the X360's price drops to $200, it will give a fairly large long-term boost to the monthly sales, so it's very likely that it'll pull away from the PS3 even faster for a while...
You mean the 'gimped' version, which is what some referred the 40GB PS3 as being. Problem is, MS has been so tight when it comes to introducing price-cuts, and in any case Core/Arcade sales have been lame up to now in comparison to other SKU's.
This is a life to date chart. What more do you want other than the whole life of each of the machines?
FYI December's numbers aren't out yet... give it a few days.
Oops I didnt notice sorry
200 price point, isn't the magic number for mass market IMO. Look at the Wii. It's over 200 and has got nearly 20 million install base after 1 year. The PS2 followed the same path having 24 million units sold(more than GC and Xbox 1 LTD sales) before it went sub 200. The magic number should be 300.
The 360 Core/Arcade is gimped up so bad that people wouldn't buy it over a Premium. It's the Premium that has to go 300. Same for the 40 gig PS3 which from my understanding is selling better then the other modals.
The 360 Core/Arcade is gimped up so bad that people wouldn't buy it over a Premium. It's the Premium that has to go 300. Same for the 40 gig PS3 which from my understanding is selling better then the other modals.
But if nobody buys it...(which they havent up till now)
In any case, I'd rather not play the 'wait and see' game. MS's costcutting record hasnt exactly been stellar since it joined the console market. With the original Xbox it was the Nvidia problem, now they have RROD...which is still a problem because many people on forums I read are bricking their systems to get new HDMI-enabled 360's. MS apparently dont even check to see if RROD is issue.
EDIT: In fact, arent more people buying the Elite than the Arcade? I'm pretty sure I'm correct in surmising that, I'll have to look for a source. That isnt surprising when you look at the value proposition of Arcade (or lack thereof), and the fact that the majority of people look to the high-end SKU when offered the choice because of the supposed higher-value it offers, and the psychological 'boost' given to the consumer of having the 'best' version'.
Last edited by a moderator:
To tell you the truth, hardly anybody expected Sony to find a way to bring the price of their system down -200 within a year. There was even a poll done here at B3D forums some time back and not very many believe it. Looking at the best selling modals for both system it's the Premium for the 360 and the 40 gig for the PS3. The difference right now is 50 dollars.
It'll be interesting when and if MS will cut the price down, because so far what I have seen from them, they have been very reluctant to do so when they could of done so in last Spring when the PS3 was hurting the most. Sony on the other hand have been the aggressers.
Regarding USA sales, from http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8374&Itemid=2
Using these numbers as a base, if the PS3 were to equal the 360's sales in 2008, it would have to sell approximately 5.5 million more units than it during the year. This would require a >450k monthly sales gap in favour of the PS3. The PS3 has never outsold the 360 in a single month IIRC. That's just not a realistic situation.
It's hard to see a situation where this ever happens, unless the 360 is completely removed from the market. Looking at this chart, that would be a very unlikely scenario, no matter how much doom and gloom people try to throw on the system. Hell, we even have people in this very thread saying this will be the systems last year! Crazy talk, IMO.
I'm not saying the ps3 will close the installed base gap in 2008, but that it's possible it will close the monthly sales gap in the US.
As for selling 450k more monthly worldwide. The last few sales figures, that I've seen, for the ps3 and 360 in japan have placed them at 50kish to 10kish a week(unless it's monthly?). That's about 160k a month in favor of ps3 for japan alone. Europe is bigger than japan, and that's were the main uncertainty lies, seeing as 360's doing well in UK. But if the ps3 were to surpass or equal 360 monthly in US, and Uk. When combined with europe+japan, the installed base gap could indeed, conceivably, close by early-mid 2009 or late 2008.
Again, it is possible microsoft drops to $200 early in the year, and this is seen positively by the market(as in not giving it an image of being cheap or bastardized version.), they don't announce or hint at 720 during the year, blu-ray and the ps3 exclusives and possible price-cut fail to bump ps3 enough.
The magic number is dependent on the demand of your product, which is also heavily influenced by the console price of your competitors.
The xbox or GC magic number wasn't $300.00. I don't think the xbox and GC really had a magic number. LOL
I think the Wii's current price point has been the magic number for this generation and thats been influenced by the $600.00 and $400.00 dollar initial price tag of the 360 and PS3. Even now the Sony and MS product with the most demand come at $100 and up premium over the Wii.
Whatever, the magic number for the 360 or the PS3 will be heavily dependent on the price of their competitors. I don't think the PS3 sales will take off at $300 price point if we are seeing the Premium at $199.00 and the Wii at <$150.00. Nor do I think the 360 sales will take off over the PS3 with a paltry $50.00 seperating the Premium and the 40Gb unless they're both under the $200 dollar mark.
I don't see the new "arcade" 360 as a gimped 360 like the core was. With the Core you had to at least buy a mem card or the hard drive to use the console (to create your profile). The Core also came with a wired controller.
The new Arcade 360 comes with a 256 meg mem card and the wireless controller and 5 full XBLA games. Basically it's fully functional right out of the box. If you want backwards compatibility, the space to download demos and/or take advantage of the Video Marketplace.......you have a choice of either a 20gig or 120gig HD.
The Arcade 360 hitting $199.99 will sell like crazy. I'd buy those as gifts for a few of my friends at that price.
The core was as horribly gimped as the ps2 was, somehow the ps2 did ok. The arcade will play every 360 game out of the box, the only limitation would be downloading demos or movies which I expect a lot of people wouldn't do anyway.
quest55720
Regular
The Wii also includes the hottest game of the generation and game save storage. To walk out of the store and play a wii is less than it was to walk out of the store to play the ps2 when it hit 200 dollars. The Wii is still really 200 dollars because of the included killer app and storage.
Except there isn't a magic number, and sales are a complex interdynamic of demand, price, supply, etc?
That said, of course a given system (360) will sell better at a lower price.
As far as Arcade, I think sales have been around 25% of total 360's since it's been reintroduced. Some of those sales were probably holiday sales where Premium was sold out and it was the only thing left, but that's still not too bad.
My idea is that it's AIMED at a certain price conscious buyer. Sure it may be a minority of sales, but if say, 10 or 15% of 360 owners wouldn't otherwise be 360 owners if not for that SKU, it's helping. That is the point of different sku's targeted at different markets.
Beyond that, I think it was summed up by Shane Bettenhausen when asked which 360 sku he recommends to friends. He said Premium because the others are just not good values. I agree, and I think MS has set it up that way on purpose obviously. The best value is clearly the premium. You get a HDD, you get hi-def cables, and you get a headset/mic, for $70 more dollars, where the HDD alone costs $100 separately. Plus for the holiday anyway, you also even got two free games, which is a lot better imo than 5 free minigames with Arcade. So that's a lot of extra stuff.
MS will cut the price in april/may IMHO. At least they should
Their holiday sales will be better than before, but not as good as PS2's best years, so they'll have to make the machine more appealing. The game catalogue is there already, all that's left to do is a cheaper price.
Their holiday sales will be better than before, but not as good as PS2's best years, so they'll have to make the machine more appealing. The game catalogue is there already, all that's left to do is a cheaper price.
Similar threads
