Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[JasonLD]

For what it's worth, Aegies did mention, based on what he's heard over the last year, "Durango is using a heavily engineered part from AMD that is not easily comparable to any current GPU out there right now."

Yes, just like what Xenos was.

 

[ImaginaryInsider]

Doesn't really say much in itself in the current state of graphics tech. If it's anything that enhances efficiency over current gpu's we'd have probably have seen it implemented or in a roadmap by Nvidia or AMD already.

Console gaming is has it's own needs, a few specific tweaks here and there that wouldn't make sense with the brute force of PC gaming, could give console gamers the graphical fidelity they want at preset resolutions and framerates without being easily comparable "flop for flop".

 

[(((interference)))]

Yes, just like what Xenos was.

But, I think, not as forward looking as Xenos was.
The 360 came out at a time when GPUs were on the cusp of making a big architectural leap to unified shaders, I don't think there's a similar situation this time around.

What equivalent to Xenos' unified shaders could they put in Durango's GPU?

And did we know unified shaders were on the horizon before we heard about Xenos?
If not, maybe there's something AMD have brewing we don't expect.

 

[Oboro Shogun]

I feel like even something the equivalent of a gtx 480 in a closed box could really pull off some amazing visuals at 30 fps. Just imagining what developers could do knowing everyone had something that powerful to squeeze the most out of. Just seeing how acceptably close games like Crysis 2 are from a console to my 480 powered PC on significantly less powerful hardware is impressive. If we got something in the ballpark of a gtx 670 I'd be thrilled. If every PC developer had a 670 to squeeze I can't imagine how far PC visuals would be ahead. We definitely wouldn't need tri sli to get decent framerates in Metro...

The tech that concerns me is this used game tech more so than the raw rendering power. Also please give Xbox controllers a functional dpad for us fighting game players...

 

[McHuj]

I think all the tweaks will be related to bandwidth, embedded memory, and perhaps some fixed blocks/instructions for IQ enhancements (lets say MS versions of FXAA/TXAA). I wonder how much you could get out of a Cape Verde-type GPU if it had access to small memory pool (64-128MB) at 500GB/sec for the shaders, texture units, and rops as well as the amount of processing time spent on IQ of some variety of AA was drastically reduced.

Maybe I'm completely wrong, but it seems to me that most of the processing on high PC games goes to IQ and bandwidth needed for higher resolutions, so how can you achieve similar results in an embedded system with less hardware?

 

[Inuhanyou]

But, I think, not as forward looking as Xenos was.
The 360 came out at a time when GPUs were on the cusp of making a big architectural leap to unified shaders, I don't think there's a similar situation this time around.

What equivalent to Xenos' unified shaders could they put in Durango's GPU?

And did we know unified shaders were on the horizon before we heard about Xenos?
If not, maybe there's something AMD have brewing we don't expect.

360 came out along with its unified shader architecture 19 months before any AMD or Nvidia part with Unified shader architecture debuted to the public.

So yeah, we can assume Microsoft has some sort of look at what AMD is coming up with in the future that they can implement into their console.

 

[pjbliverpool]

Yes, just like what Xenos was.

As opposed to something like the 680 which is also clearly designed to mine for diamonds. If only Nvidia had dropped that stupid mining crap and built a graphics card designed only to accelerate 3d graphics... doh!

 

[pjbliverpool]

360 came out along with its unified shader architecture 19 months before any AMD or Nvidia part with Unified shader architecture debuted to the public.

So yeah, we can assume Microsoft has some sort of look at what AMD is coming up with in the future that they can implement into their console.

Unified shaders were known to be on the horizon long before the current generation of consoles launched and in fact had been planned for a PC GPU (R400) even before the consoles launched.

What is currently on the horizon which could be used in the new generation of consoles? (to be fair I can actually think of at least 2 things although neither is really as revolutionary as unified shaders).

 

[Rylan]

There's so many things wrong with iSuppli "estimates" that I don't even know where to begin. It's like they add stuff randomly on the PS3.
Seriously, there's a total of $247.75 for misc, other, plastic enclosure, assembling, manufacturing.

Calm down mate

 

[COPS N RAPPERS]

360 came out along with its unified shader architecture 19 months before any AMD or Nvidia part with Unified shader architecture debuted to the public.

So yeah, we can assume Microsoft has some sort of look at what AMD is coming up with in the future that they can implement into their console.

very true, they've had company insight for years, I really hope they get their hands on something this time that's well focused on power but also temperature and durability. If it can hit all three birds with one stone, then i commend them big time on that. they should use some of their profits made to seek out those concerns.

 

[Acert93]

Let's put it this way: Don't expect a graphical powerhouse in a console. They have a lot of regulations coming into effect about power usage that they're going to have to conform to, as a set top box, which a PC does not have to worry about.

Yet there are a lot of engineering solutions that could address this. Either by throttling the processors into low power modes or something as coarse grain as turning cores off. There are options like what NV is doing with 4+1 cores as well as GPU swapping. There is no reason why a 2013 product cannot have different power envelops for a sleep mode, dashboard, and in-game.

I think it would be easy to pin going a different direction on all sorts of factors that, when addressed individually, really aren't an issue. I think the most reasonable reason why we won't see a "powerhouse GPU" (and ironically that seems be be applied to anything approaching 2 TFLOPs which has been available in the PC sector for years and in midrange GPUs since Q1'12, nearly 2 years before the new consoles launch) is Nintendo already bailed on performance a decade ago, Sony is fiscally screwed, and MS knows that so there is little competitive pressure. Businesses are always aggressively aiming to expand markets and reach new market shares (as these allow for more revenue and profits) and hardcore gamers are viewed as a "captured" audience with little room for growth. There is little incentive to placate them. Then there are the technical issues (even at an 8 year cycle the pace of innovation and performance has slowed and the next 10 years could see the price of cost reduction become a difficult mountain to scale) and the area of diminishing returns. I know the execs have argued why focus on the traditional paradigm when from the high level they don't care if we get the next cutting edge CryEngine/UE4 etc when all that matters to the bean counters is how do we ensure we get the next Angry Birds ($$$). 4 crappy cores work just as well as 8 really great cores for that so "making great games doesn't require great hardware."

And I think in a lot of ways the market is moving toward products like Kinect. Big launch. Captivated audiences. Has huge issues (low resolution, lag, doesn't integrate well into current popular gaming genres, lacks buttons, lacks a way to have "perpetual motion" in many games like FPS, etc) but it served its purpose--and software literally VAPORIZED for 2012. But the market is now consumables, service isn't so important. They will just market Kinect 2 and be on their way. The market for the refined gameplay/iterative improvements/genre evolution moves you right back into the "old hardcore design model" which is limited and cut throat. No, the better approach is to leverage the gaming side to snag market share in media (movies, TV, music and the host of services) and social networks for their ad network advantages. The "new" consoles need to spend their HW resources and Software development resources not on the next great gaming-centric devise but used to captivate new audiences (Kinect 2), integrate as a home entertainment hub, and cost reduce to become a standard pack in with set-top devices, integrated into TVs, etc.

IMO as I just did the math a couple pages back a Pitcairn+4xJaguar combo is **pathetically** small compared to last gen budgets. You could do that in a SoC less than the GPUs from last gen alone. And when you look at the price of midrange GPUs at retail it is obvious these are not expensive devices in terms of console budgets.

IMO all the consoles will probably have relatively pathetic GPU performance and it isn't because of new laws or technical hurdles. It is because the core gamer is NOT as important and the budget for the CPU, GPU, and Memory are being shifted toward Waggle 2.0 and a slew of media services.

And I don't mean this to be disagreeable to your point BK, only that I don't see how from a HW perspective even taking a small step back from last gen how this class of GPU isn't "workable". These are not definitely "powerhouse" GPUs in the 2 TFLOPs range.

It will be interesting to hear if Epic, Crytek, and others who do target the core gamer really feel about the consoles and if there will be any movement under foot to encourage another player (like a Valve) to cater to this audience.

 

[Inuhanyou]

We already have heard what Crytek feel about it. This is what they said a few weeks ago.

GamesBeat: How do you think Crysis 3 is going to look compared to Unreal Engine 4 games or next-gen console games?

Yerli: I honestly think that Unreal Engine 4 would not be able to do Crysis 3 on consoles right now. The PC version could do it, maybe, but it would call for a higher PC spec. CryEngine 3 is capable of doing anything Unreal Engine 4 can. We don’t need to tick up the number to CryEngine 4.

As far as next-gen console games, I think Crysis 3 on the PC will be very comparable. Because it’s a high-end PC title, implicitly it’s a next-gen game. It’s just a next-gen PC game.

And they have been confirmed to know the specs since atleast early last year when Yerli said he did.

 

[ultragpu]

Sorry, can't answer that.
Awesome! I'm an avid cyclist myself, but I'm probably not going to buy a new bike this year. I like the look of the new bikes and all, but with the new bike not being able to use my current bike's accessories, I'll stick with the current one until it fails... (Also, I don't know anything about the other guy's new bike, so I couldn't give you a recommendation on what to buy)

I see, looks like I'll keep my old bike a for a little longer too then. So for the new bike that you know, how many kilometers can you roughly ride in one session without burning out the tyres? 2500km sounds good? I hope you can at least ride more than 1200km. So nice to chat with a fellow bike lover.

 

[Kaotik]

360 came out along with its unified shader architecture 19 months before any AMD or Nvidia part with Unified shader architecture debuted to the public.

So yeah, we can assume Microsoft has some sort of look at what AMD is coming up with in the future that they can implement into their console.

To be fair, ATI did plan to put out unified shader R400 a long, long time before XB360, the manufacturing processes of the day just weren't ready for it (and possibly other issues)

 

[Inuhanyou]

correct, but it still points to microsoft(or whatever customer around) having access to AMD's roadmap if looking for a customized chip. The R520(X1000) series(which released at the same time and afterward) didn't even have that kind of priority.

 

[arijoytunir]

Even devs like from software ( dark souls 2) was being played on a laptop . This is somewhat indicative that the gpu in the next gen consoles will house a mobile gpu !

 

[Inuhanyou]

Uh..not really? Of course i could be wrong, but what one developer happens to demo their game on has no bearing on what the hardware turns out to be. Especially considering that Dark Souls 2 just might be a current gen console game to begin with.

 

[arijoytunir]

The leaked demo of cry engine 3 running on a laptop to show a tech demo of next gen rpj!

 

[tunafish]

Is it those darn Europeans again? I remember what lead free solder did to the first generation consoles from Microsoft and Sony... Anyway what are the regulations power limits exactly?

The EU regulation proposal for game consoles that is likely to pass has no limit whatsoever on active gaming power, but the limits on standby power will be pretty strict. (Not really relevant, but just a pet peeve of mine: the exact same thing was true of the regulations about GPUs that raised a lot of noise on the internet. EU has never, and likely never will limit active use power for devices that actually need it. However, they are trying to drive standby power of everything as low as they can.)

It's all just a proposal for now, so things can change, but I believe the latest draft requires the devices to have automatic power down to a standby state, with non-networked max standby power of 0.5W, and networked max standby power of 4W.

 

[Proelite]

btrollian
...

When the first Durango numbers come out, I predict the vast majority of people who uses flops as a measure of power would be really disappointed.

They'll be fine once they see the games though.