Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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It's all just a proposal for now, so things can change, but I believe the latest draft requires the devices to have automatic power down to a standby state, with non-networked max standby power of 0.5W, and networked max standby power of 4W.
Too bad we can't have 'elegant' solutions like "just replace the power button with a mechanical switch to the power supply" anymore.
 
btrollian
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When the first Durango numbers come out, I predict the vast majority of people who uses flops as a measure of power would be really disappointed.

They'll be fine once they see the games though.

It took till Gears came out before people completely dropped the whole "xbox 1.5" thing, there is just no way a huge backlash can be avoided. Personally, just the increased amount of online players from 24 to 32/64 will be a welcome upgrade.
 
btrollian
...

When the first Durango numbers come out, I predict the vast majority of people who uses flops as a measure of power would be really disappointed.

They'll be fine once they see the games though.
At 30 FPS with tearing? It's not a matter of good looking games, but the limiting hardware on game design and smooth gameplay. If we get a "weak" console, that means smaller levels, smaller potential, lower frame rates to match people's expectations of UE4 and Agnis Philosiphy, 720p etc.

What I want is something like Agnis Philosiiphy with big levels, lots of characters, etc. to run smoothly at 1080p 60 FPS as a base. Then if they want to squeeze more out of the consoles in the later years that's fine since it has a 10 year life cycle.
 
At 30 FPS with tearing? It's not a matter of good looking games, but the limiting hardware on game design and smooth gameplay. If we get a "weak" console, that means smaller levels, smaller potential, lower frame rates to match people's expectations of UE4 and Agnis Philosiphy, 720p etc.

What I want is something like Agnis Philosiiphy with big levels, lots of characters, etc. to run smoothly at 1080p 60 FPS as a base. Then if they want to squeeze more out of the consoles in the later years that's fine since it has a 10 year life cycle.
If 8GB ram is true, that should allow them to achieve the scale you and many of us want to see and play tricks with the resolution to make up for the lower than expected flops.
 
btrollian
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When the first Durango numbers come out, I predict the vast majority of people who uses flops as a measure of power would be really disappointed.

They'll be fine once they see the games though.

No. That reasoning, I believe, misses the point those looking at "numbers" are making.

I think everyone agrees that software targeting a closed-box console with a baseline featureset is going to look very, very good--just look at games like Uncharted 3 and Halo 4. Moving away from targeting last gen hardware as a baseline and using a new console offers a lot of legroom to improve visuals, even on a 1.2 TFLOPs system.

But the point is anything less than 2 TFLOPs is a big reduction in budgets from last generation. It is almost guaranteed we won't be seeing CPUs in the 230mm^2 range like Cell, to also see the GPU real-estate slashed from the 250-260mm^2 range -- as the Cape Verde rumors indicate -- is huge. As I noted above it doesn't take a genius to see where that investment is going (non-core gaming features and services).

And you just blurted the Sony/MS PR line to core gamers: Screw specs! The games are impressive looking!

Well, ahem, core gamers aren't dumb. We know we are probably stuck with these boxes for 7-10 years (until streamed gaming and DRM up the you know what is thrust on every consumer).

As for the hardware it isn't just the flops as they are tied to the TMUs and memory bandwidth and to a degree the ROPs. Low flops also means lower texturing power and bandwidth. NV/AMD aren't dumb. Their systems are designed in a certain way to maximize and balance resources. I am pretty sure we are going to see some whiz-bang features like HSA or unique memory architectures where Sony/MS say, "Ignore the numbers, we are way more efficient and powerful and just look at what is on screen, it proves our point." Which doesn't really prove the point they will try to make.

I know you have been fashioning your posts for many months as a MS insider or connected to such, but as a consumer I would argue the idea that, "The numbers will dissappoint but the on screen visuals will wipe away those concerns" ignores the concern. Some of us just want to use our console for gaming and while being conservative for fairly reasons compared to last gen due to process changes, uncertainty of the market, etc doesn't translate into justifying after 8 years a Cape Verde class console. Heck, Sony/MS could slap together 8x Jaguar/PPC class CPUs on a CPU die less than 100mm^2 and a Pitcairn GPU at slightly over 200mm^2 and be at 3/4-3/5ths the silicon investment from last gen. Considering the savings on not having stupid Trojans like BDR and it seems more than reasonable such a console would be relatively very affordable compared to the 2005 models.

But see my post above: The new consoles are all about the new media and waggle trojans of 2013.
 
I would be very frustrated if the consoles came with something like a 1.2TF GPU. I for one would be skipping the generation entirely and relying on Steam for the foreseeable future. I'm hoping to time my next PC upgrade to mid 2014 so I can get DDR4, Volcanic islands GPU and hopefully AMD will have good 20nm CPU...
 
Nope I don't.
then...why make such claims if you dont know anything? ¡n a closed box with devs targeting that fixed spec a lot of things are possible. but a lot of people are worried about future proofing these next consoles for them to stay competitive in a rapidly changing market.
 
Yes, I saw that, but where did he make a statement that he sourced from his purported sources in MS.

All I can see in his post history is the AMD China leaks.
AMD China is AMD China
My friend is my friend

And from what i search i can sure AMD China guy #1 really from AMD,just still not sure is his job about game consoles
Btw yesterday when a member in TGFC open a thread about MS countdown to E3,he reply "well you guys already know the first half"
 
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I would be very frustrated if the consoles came with something like a 1.2TF GPU. I for one would be skipping the generation entirely and relying on Steam for the foreseeable future. I'm hoping to time my next PC upgrade to mid 2014 so I can get DDR4, Volcanic islands GPU and hopefully AMD will have good 20nm CPU...

Even from this post i can tell you are worried...

Even those who claim PC is their next gen are worried...when its pretty much set into stone that 99% of all major games will be PC ports of console games from now on due to the increasing ability of console hardware. They are scared that their PC components will be very much underutilized in a few years time once again.

They want to experience a much higher baseline themselves, to make the PC versions look even better than they would otherwise. Its understandable to be worried.
 
Console GPU and PC GPU functions can be different. There are some things in the PC architecture of the GPU's that can be eliminated to make space for more "console" like functionality.

So, the console GPU functionality can still be as powerful in many ways.

Unfortunately for us a lot of people out there are posting specs and we know almost all of them are incorrect. We will just have to wait it out until later this year when we can get actual solid information.
 
If we can get Agni's, Crysis 3 and Samaritan at 2.5TF in some form (maybe not perfect IQ or 1080p) is that fine for you guys?

I'm sure third party devs were pushing for a ~2TF baseline. If there's anyone else out there that might pressure for more I'd say it would be SCE studios guys. But if no pressure is there for 3, 4 TF I guess there wouldn't be any internal incentive to drive up costs that way really. Media hub stuff and multitasking doesn't require lots of TF so it really comes back to who and what's the driver for that.
 
If we can get Agni's, Crysis 3 and Samaritan at 2.5TF in some form (maybe not perfect IQ or 1080p) is that fine for you guys?

I'm sure third party devs were pushing for a ~2TF baseline. If there's anyone else out there that might pressure for more I'd say it would be SCE studios guys. But if no pressure is there for 3, 4 TF I guess there wouldn't be any internal incentive to drive up costs that way really. Media hub stuff and multitasking doesn't require lots of TF so it really comes back to who and what's the driver for that.

That would be fine, but we were basically told that it isn't 2TF-2.5TF that it's most likely 1-1.x TF.
So, that is what I am expecting.
 
If we can get Agni's, Crysis 3 and Samaritan at 2.5TF in some form (maybe not perfect IQ or 1080p) is that fine for you guys?

I'm sure third party devs were pushing for a ~2TF baseline. If there's anyone else out there that might pressure for more I'd say it would be SCE studios guys. But if no pressure is there for 3, 4 TF I guess there wouldn't be any internal incentive to drive up costs that way really. Media hub stuff and multitasking doesn't require lots of TF so it really comes back to who and what's the driver for that.

That is absolutely fine for me, infact its more than fine, its what i expected and wanted to begin with. Agni's visuals in any form or Samaritans visuals in any form.

In particular, what we know about Agni now is that its not particularly hard to get those visuals as the 680 and i7 set up they used wasn't really stressed at all(or so SE says) and they only need 1.8 gigs of VRAM to replicate it(according to their own estimates).

I don't need 3 TF, that's just ridiculous and over wishing.

Hell, don't even need 2.5.

If i can get a 1.8-2 TF level GPU and a large amount of ram(let's say 8 Gigs of fast unified DDR3 for overall system ram and 6 for games) with a decent CPU, that's just fine. The ram will do most of the work when it comes to pristine textures and large environments, and the DX11.1 feature set of the GPU will help it along even further in real world performance.

Not looking for anything super crazy from the HW side, cause i know that the devs efforts can easily take it over the goal line. But Microsoft has to play ball atleast a little bit to keep their platform viable. We don't even know anything about what Sony is doing...
 
I do not believe the 1-1.5TF rumors are even realistic at this point. The opportunity cost of saving $ to come out underpowered just to and hope to catch casuals instead with media features, while barely squeezing out games like Crysis 3 at 720p would be much worse than spending a bit more to make it easier on devs. Third party games are still the bread and butter and when that doesn't impress and sell, goodbye next gen.
 
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