NPD June 2007

I would've thought people had learned 6 years ago not to look at Amazon.com sales ranking to "prove" how well a product was selling...

 

How about this then:

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16892

 

So what? Are you surprised we saw an influx of people go buy a PS3 the first 1-2 weeks after a price cut was announced? If we DIDN'T see that, then that would be a major concern.

This is par for the course, and had any other console announced a price cut, I would expect the same influx of sales.

 

One thing I've been thinking about with regard to this. Let's say a 360/PS3 game costs $20 million to build and breaks even at 1 million sold copies. If that same game for the Wii costs $5 million to build, then they only need to sell 250k copies on the Wii to break even.

Maybe we should start looking at that baseline for games released on the Wii?

 

Even worse software sales are only up 15% for the time period. With that kind of spike in hardware sales you would assume lots and lots of game sales. It makes me wonder how many are buying the PS3 because its the best blue ray player. Even NG bombed pretty hard around the world on the PS3.

 

So what so what? It's getting a sales boost right now, and your playing cool doesn't make that boost any smaller. And no, it doesn't surprise me.
You really should have asked mesyn191 your surprise question, not me.

 

I have no doubt that the PS3 price drop will increase sales, but the question is "will it last?" At the moment, I don't think so. But I could be proven wrong.

As for 3rd parties on Nintendo systems, the problem isn't that they're on a Nintendo system. The problem is that there's really no "compelling" software coming from third parties. They're all pretty much trying to emulate Wii Sports, instead of coming up with their own ideas.

Hell, Dragon Quest Swords supposedly did very well. I think it sold about 300,000 it's first week (not positive), and become the fastest selling console DQ spin-off. Resident Evil 4 sold 150,000 in it's first 10 days.

It's going to be unique, interesting software that sells on the Wii. Spin-offs, etc, won't always cut it. I get the feeling that RE:UC and Soulcalibur Legends won't do so well due to being (seemingly) rushed out.

 

Not only that, but it's already on track to beat Capcom's own sales expectations. People forget the RE4's a 4th port of a 2 year old game, and Wii owners are scarfing it up. It was actually on the top 10, which is amazing for a game that most people played and probably already own in one form or another.

On track to be the fastest selling third party game in Japan. Actually, I think it's probably THE fasting selling Wii game whether it's third or first party.

 

Agreed.

We saw sales plummet before when Sony dropped the $500 unit. These same people that value the ps3 at $500 now see a better specced box for the same price so they will pick it up. Add the scare tactic (limited time price!) and I'm sure that's worth a few more sales in the meanwhile.

I'd still say their sales will be below 250k for July and fall afterward in August and September. Oct may see a slight uptick and the Typical Nov and Dec increases.

I estimate 1.5 million from now 'til the end of the year for a total of 2.3million in 2007.

Est:
250k july
200k aug
150k sep
175k oct
250k nov
500k dec

 

I don't think there's any chance of 250,000 in July for PS3. It has to be remembered that June was a 5 week month and July will be 4 weeks. Weekly sales in June averaged 19,600. So even if that increased by 135% for the entire month we'd be looking at 185,000 for July. As it is this claimed increase is for the first two weeks and its quite likely that sales will start to drop again for the remaining 2 weeks of the month. So I'd say 150,000 is a fair guess.

 

I agree with Teasy, but I think Chef's numbers for November and December are too low.

 

Yea but this is the same company that blamed slow sales on being out of stock too Granted at the launch it was true, but when they did that a "few" months ago..well you know where I am going with this.

I agree we will see much more sales for this month. In fact I thought about getting one until had to by a new AC for the house (Dam you south florida summers). But still more sales is good so lets see what happens!

 

I concur with both you and Teasy as 150-190K seems very feasible for the month of july and non market leaders still typically move around 1.5 million consoles during the holiday months in the US.

Est:
180k july
150k aug
140k sep
200k oct
500k nov
1000k dec

However, thats an estimate based on no change in price, which i believe won't happen. If Sony is to move 11 million PS3 during this fiscal year then they will have to further price cut the PS3 as they will take more than half the fiscal year 08 trying to unload the original 5.5 million from fiscal year 07 into gamers' homes.

 

I don't think third party devs need to beat Nintendo to do well on the Wii.

 

Well, there's a few things they need to do.

1. Don't try to dabble to much in the genres Nintendo rules over (platformers).

2. Advertise. Most games from third parties aren't even advertised.

3. Make a great game, even if it isn't Nintendo quality (few devs can get to Nintendo quality anyway). Just make sure the game is solid and works well (especially with the Wii-mote).

That should be enough to net you some success on the Wii.

 

Much better source, ho-hum sales increase though with a price drop like that, looks like Sony is still in trouble.

 

Sales have historically ~doubled for Nov over Oct and ~doubled again for Dec over Nov. But in this case I don't think this model will be followed. I'm predicting an uptick for Oct based on games available. Thus the bump for Nov and Dec over Oct will be less.

One must also consider the high price of the ps3. It is still expensive at $500, even for a Christmas gift. Games selection will be better, but so will console selection and games on those consoles.

With it's current $500 price, and increased competition, I don't think they will be sniffing 1 million in Dec.

<750k. IMO

 

These kinds of comments make me laugh hard..

There's no such thing as "nintendo quality" surely?

I highly doubt one could put a game as "ass" as luigi's mansion in the same league as Super Mario 64?

 

Luigi Mansion while definately not great wasn't a horrible game (it still has a 79.2% avg score on GameRankings). Now this 79.2% beat all but 7 of the rated Wii games on GameRankings with 3 of those 7 being Nintendo games (there is currently 39 Wii Games in the list at GameRankings). The other 4 games are all essentially ports that have been rebranded for the Wii.

The Wii needs high quality new IP titles from third parties for those games to do well.