NPD June 2007

[dobwal]

Uh huh... is the PS2 obsolete? It sells better than the 360.

It depends, obsolete when it comes to technology is mostly used to refer to technology that is still used in current production and not whether or not people are still using the product that uses that technology.

I mean people are still driving around with cars from 30 years ago that doesn't make all the technology in those cars current. When was the last time a mass produced for everyday civilian use automobile came with a carbuerator.

 

[Todd33]

It will still be very new this Christmas. I doubt if you did a survey in 1999, you would find over 70% of users claiming they bought DVD discs for their VHS players.

I bet they would, people are pretty dumb. I watched a video of a man on the street asking if Barack Obama was a security threat and they responded that he was and we should catch him. Unless humans have devolved since 1997, I doubt confusion is much higher (unless you are talking about HD-DVD, which has DVD in the name).

 

[dobwal]

I bet they would, people are pretty dumb. I watched a video of a man on the street asking if Barack Obama was a security threat and they responded that he was and we should catch him. Unless humans have devolved since 1997, I doubt confusion is much higher (unless you are talking about HD-DVD, which has DVD in the name).

There is a distinct physical difference between a VHS tape and a DVD disc. Confusion was more with CDs versus DVDs when it came to PCs and not VHS versus DVDs when it came to movie players. I doubt many people were trying to figure out how to play their DVDs in their VHS players as CDs were common in the 90s.

You make that argument and yet somehow believe that people dumb enough to mistake a DVD for a VHS would somehow quickly overcome their HD/BluRay disk versus DVD ignorance to allow HD media to outpace the DVD rate of adoption. Im talking software not hardware.

 

[Todd33]

There is a distinct physical difference between a VHS tape and a DVD disc. Confusion was more with CDs versus DVDs when it came to PCs and not VHS versus DVDs when it came to movie players. I doubt many people were trying to figure out how to play their DVDs in their VHS players as CDs were common in the 90s.

You make that argument and yet somehow believe that people dumb enough to mistake a DVD for a VHS would somehow quickly overcome their HD/BluRay disk versus DVD ignorance to allow HD media to outpace the DVD rate of adoption. Im talking software not hardware.

Yes, software. The question was had they bought one (HD-DVD, BD), not stuck it in their player. You don't think the random person in Circuit City might say they bought acronym A instead of B in 1997? How are people worse today than in 1997? The marketing campaign for DVD educated the masses (along with word of mouth), I don't see how it will be different for an HD format.

 

[dobwal]

Yes, software. The question was had they bought one (HD-DVD, BD), not stuck it in their player. You don't think the random person in Circuit City might say they bought acronym A instead of B in 1997? How are people worse today than in 1997?

It pretty obvious that if 83% and 69% percent of DVD owners believed that they bought HD/BluRay discs of nonexistant HD/BluRay movies that they were simply mistaking purchases of DVD movies that for a large majority of those purchases ended up in their own DVD players.

Not to the point that two formats that are physically distinctly different would have the same rate of error as the two formats that to the general eye looks physically the same.

That like saying that the number of people who would mistake a Astro van for a honda minivan is the same number that would mistake a corolla for a hummer.

 

[Todd33]

It pretty obvious that if 83% and 69% percent of DVD owners believed that they bought HD/BluRay discs of nonexistant HD/BluRay movies that they were simply mistaking purchases of DVD movies that for a large majority of those purchases ended up in their own DVD players.

Not to the point that two formats that are physically distinctly different would have the same rate of error as the two formats that to the general eye looks physically the same.

I'm not sure what you are trying to get at, we are nit picking a poll that neither knows the specifics on and comparing it to a non-existent poll in 1997. Are you saying HD formats are doomed because they physically look like DVD? So in their first year the new formats have confused Joe Sixpack, how is that relevant in the long run?

 

[quest55720]

Yes, software. The question was had they bought one (HD-DVD, BD), not stuck it in their player. You don't think the random person in Circuit City might say they bought acronym A instead of B in 1997? How are people worse today than in 1997? The marketing campaign for DVD educated the masses (along with word of mouth), I don't see how it will be different for an HD format.

Because there difference between DVD and VHS was 1000x greater than DVD to HD-media. The benifits of DVD was on any TV people had. HD-media only benifits if you have a hd-tv. The average person is not going to see enough of difference between upscaled DVD and Hd to get them to buy. That and the problem well if they buy the HD disk it is worthless for the kids playroom, bedrooms and car. Almost everyone I know has 1 or more portable players for the car and vacations.

I don't see hd-dvd or blue ray being anything but a nice little niche player for a long long time. I don't see any argument were the pros out weigh the cons for the average person.

Lets not forget people did not really start buying movies till a few years ago when walmart, best buy ect started to use them to get people in the store every tuesday. Very few people had a large collection of VHS tapes they had to give up to move to DVD.

 

[Todd33]

Because there difference between DVD and VHS was 1000x greater than DVD to HD-media. The benifits of DVD was on any TV people had. HD-media only benifits if you have a hd-tv. .

Yes, VHS was 480i and so was DVD for the first few years, HD-DVD and BD are 1080P. Not quiet 1000x, but more than 0x. People are buying HDTVs, there is no denying it. People are buying HD consoles and subscribing to HD cable and satellite. Will they want a physical media for movies to take advantage of it? We shall see.

 

[TrungGap]

Uh huh... is the PS2 obsolete? It sells better than the 360.

Hmm, I never said that...an obsolete device is a device no longer in general use. An obsolete technology is a technology no longer in implementation/production. A device can be obsolete even if the technology in it is not.

Maybe I don't understand your argument.

Well I don't think it is their business model, but why shouldn't a console last 5+ years? Do you want devs to start over every two years with a new platform? PC video cards get released like every nine months, is that a good console business model? They are also $500 at the high end, I wish my $500 video card would lsat 5+ years.

That's my point. In business you cannot decide how long your product will last. It's not up to you. It's the free market and competition that drive technological advances (or maybe not).

Your $500 video card could last you 5+ years if you wish. No one is forcing you to upgrade. The reason you're compelled to upgrade is because someone releasing a new video card that do out do your video card. As a whole, if everyone resisted upgrading, then video card manufacture will be less likely to offer new model faster. However, every companies out there is in it for money. So if giving a chance to release a new model and someone is willing to buy it, they going to do it, especially if it going to be faster for the same price.

Now what about the devs? We no longer program in assembly. We have high level compilers that will do optimization for us. Do you think hardware abstraction layer is some mumble-jumble conceived by some OS dev just for the hell of it? There's a line in where performance is balance with the ability to be physical hardware agnostic, up to some point the advances in performance will offset the hal performance hit.

[edit: typos]

 

[quest55720]

Yes, VHS was 480i and so was DVD for the first few years, HD-DVD and BD are 1080P. Not quiet 1000x, but more than 0x. People are buying HDTVs, there is no denying it. People are buying HD consoles and subscribing to HD cable and satellite. Will they want a physical media for movies to take advantage of it? We shall see.

If blue ray or hd-dvd included the DVD version in the box it would help the average person a lot. That is what cable and sat do they include the SD with the hd versions. Lets not forget cable and sat SD looks like complete ass not even close to DVD quality. No one wants to buy movies 2 times and that is the issue. You need 1 hd-media then 1 for the other players in the house and car. Upscaled DVD while not incredible is still good enough to fool the average person into thinking it is HD.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

That's my point. In business you cannot decide how long your product will last. It's not up to you. It's the free market and competition that drive technological advances (or maybe not).

Im not sure if i agree to the technological advances statement.

Both AMD and Intel are often in positions to release CPU's that would completely annhilate the competition in terms of performance.

However, its much more benefitial for them to just up the factory clock speed every now and then on practically the same chip, and earn ****loads of money.

 

[dobwal]

Im not sure if i agree to the technological advances statement.

Both AMD and Intel are often in positions to release CPU's that would completely annhilate the competition in terms of performance.

However, its much more benefitial for them to just up the factory clock speed every now and then on practically the same chip, and earn ****loads of money.

I not sure AMD is bleeding billions in losses by relying on upping factory clocks up a few notches while hoarding some high powered cpu while dealing with Intel whose chips keep growing the performance gap between the two companies flagship and general products.

 

[pipo]

More sales related data...

http://ce.seekingalpha.com/article/43988

Most recent one:

All before the X360 drop of course...

BTW - can't we rename this thread to 'The big US sales thread' or something?

 

[Carl B]

BTW - can't we rename this thread to 'The big US sales thread' or something?

No... it's too big!

New thread for every NPD release has been the method so far.

(I'll note also that those numbers in the charts above are almost double what the NPD monthly numbers would imply... and thus I don't trust them)

 

[pipo]

No... it's too big!

New thread for every NPD release has been the method so far.

No prob.

(I'll note also that those numbers in the charts above are almost double what the NPD monthly numbers would imply... and thus I don't trust them)

Those are about trends, right?

 

[Carl B]

Those are about trends, right?

Ok I read the article to see what they meant by 'demand' - you're right it's not sales per se, rather the number of individuals shopping online for these consoles in any given week.

 

[patsu]

Most recent one:

All before the X360 drop of course...

Cool charts ! Due to the price drops and pending software releases, they will have a hard time predicting the PS3 and Xbox 360 numbers "accurately".

I don't buy the accuracy at this point. Will have to see Halo 3 effect, and more price drop effect to know (I thought PS3 did relatively well for the past 2-3 weeks after price drop ? Was a little surprise at the sales myself, but this chart indicated a "narrower" peak than I thought).


EDIT: Oh ok, it's only measuring online shoppers. Is there something equivalent for online and offline ?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Ok I read the article to see what they meant by 'demand' - you're right it's not sales per se, rather the number of individuals shopping online for these consoles in any given week.

I don't get graph number 2. Firstly I don't understand their figures. They seem ot be saying Sony's position has strengthened, but the chart reads PS3 owners considering an XB360 to have gone up. They also %age figures and i don't see a 26% mark in July for the XB360 line. Secondly, what sort of information yields these facts? Are these the buying habits derived from store-cards? How do you know if someone's considering buying a console? Views of a system on the website wouldn't be very accurate IMO.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I don't get graph number 2. Firstly I don't understand their figures. They seem ot be saying Sony's position has strengthened, but the chart reads PS3 owners considering an XB360 to have gone up. They also %age figures and i don't see a 26% mark in July for the XB360 line. Secondly, what sort of information yields these facts? Are these the buying habits derived from store-cards? How do you know if someone's considering buying a console? Views of a system on the website wouldn't be very accurate IMO.

It's observed online shopping, not actual online purchases. So, I imagine the only thing they could go by is data collected from cookies at online stores, or even more primitive "hits" on a product page.

 

[expletive]

I don't get graph number 2. Firstly I don't understand their figures. They seem ot be saying Sony's position has strengthened, but the chart reads PS3 owners considering an XB360 to have gone up. They also %age figures and i don't see a 26% mark in July for the XB360 line. Secondly, what sort of information yields these facts? Are these the buying habits derived from store-cards? How do you know if someone's considering buying a console? Views of a system on the website wouldn't be very accurate IMO.

The way i read it is that up until the PS3 price drop, more and more people in the console market were considering both consoles at the time of purchase. This does make sense as both products had saturated their respective price points so people entering the market were likely doing so without a heavy bias one way or the other. However, once the PS3 price drops, there is a sharp decrease in the # of PS3 buyers considering the 360 which makes total sense to me. This would represent a ps3 'fan' getting off the sidelines solely due to the lower price. They never had an intention of buying a 360, and now those buyers now make up a larger portion of the PS3 shoppers, skewing the percentage downards.