NPD June 2007

"Double" sounds like a lot. 100k from an install base of 45 million sounds like peanuts. I don't think it's a stretch to say that on top of the usual 100k, 0.2% of PS2 users were waiting for the first price drop.

We've already seen evidence of a PS3 sales spike from Amazon. I think PS3 will hit 200k for July quite easily, and maybe more. Price drop, E3 hype, games on the horizon, etc. The bigger question is how fast it will tail off after that.
+1.
 
"Double" sounds like a lot. 100k from an install base of 45 million sounds like peanuts. I don't think it's a stretch to say that on top of the usual 100k, 0.2% of PS2 users were waiting for the first price drop.

We've already seen evidence of a PS3 sales spike from Amazon. I think PS3 will hit 200k for July quite easily, and maybe more. Price drop, E3 hype, games on the horizon, etc. The bigger question is how fast it will tail off after that.
If June NPD numbers were over five weeks, wouldn't that 135% increase in weekly sales have PS3 at ~185,000 for July?
 
Your right, double does sound like a lot, because it is! That's exactly what your are saying will be 'easy.' I just wanted to make sure that was exactly what you were saying! :)
Microsoft doubles its sales in Japan every once in a while when a game comes out, and these aren't even particularly big franchises. "Double" doesn't really mean much for small volumes.

A temporary 100k surge is almost nothing. MS sold 100k elites at ~$500 in no time, and the number of people itching to get one of those pales in comparison to those wanting a PS3. The only reason that I can see for PS3 to not get a sales spike is that Sony killed the 20GB PS3, so it was probably not selling well.
 
I expect next month we'll see PS3 match or surpass 360. A lot of people were waiting for the first price drop, and the bad image of the 360's reliability will kick in.

I wonder if the bad image of 360 reliability was already out there and the new warranty will actually allay those concerns. I dont think it will necessarily bump sales but for myself, i wouldnt have considered a 2nd 360 for a media center extender before the new warranty, but now id buy one (given that i could justify a the price for a 2nd 360, which i cant at the moment).
 
Here are weekly sales comps to compensate for the difference between the 4 week May and 5 week June:


May June Percent Change
NDS 105,786 112,200 +6.1%
Wii 84,569 76,356 -9.7%
PSP 55,280 58,020 +5.0%
PS2 46,941 54,152 +15.4%
360 38,750 39,688 +2.4%
PS3 20,401 19,748 -3.2%
 
My comments on the numbers:

Pretty boring, not much change from recent pattern. Next month things get interesting for PS3.

Nintendo domination, also boring to this hardcore gamer.

Nintendo titles dominating software, third parties still not proving to sell on Nintendo platforms.

PSP sales are solid. I think it has definitly reached a point where it has to be looked at as a success (while it can also be looked at as a failure relative to DS), and something that's not going away. Although software sales are rather poor. Perhaps that's why Sony has kept the PSP price high (to the extent of not dropping much), so they can actually make a little money on the PSP hardware since they dont get the attach rates?

360's minor sales changes are probably mostly related to how much Elite stock they're shipping, as it's still mostly sold out.

PS3 well, not looking good..price drop ahoy.

July NPD's should hit August 16 by my calculations..

Forza numbers are actually kind of weak unless I'm missing something..

~400k in two months so far..fairly underwhelming for a first party MS game, in a slow time of releases, on a system where owners tend to gobble up games.

I know I wasn't interested, combine all the talk about what a hardcore sim it was with lackluster graphics=me not interested.

Bet ya PGR4 will blow it away..better graphics+less intimidation factor+more fun factor+PGR3 owns.
 
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Guys, random posts from other forums posted just for the absurdity value... leave them on those other forums. Thread pruned a bit.
 
For what it's worth ioi at VGchartz dropped a early blurb that he has PS3 over 360 this week. So that should make two weeks in a row.

So if his numbers have any credibility PS3 is halfway home to a winning month.
 
For what it's worth ioi at VGchartz dropped a early blurb that he has PS3 over 360 this week. So that should make two weeks in a row.

So if his numbers have any credibility PS3 is halfway home to a winning month.

Winning, if only MS were the only competition.
 
My comments on the numbers:

Pretty boring, not much change from recent pattern. Next month things get interesting for PS3.

Nintendo domination, also boring to this hardcore gamer.

Nintendo titles dominating software, third parties still not proving to sell on Nintendo platforms.

PSP sales are solid. I think it has definitly reached a point where it has to be looked at as a success (while it can also be looked at as a failure relative to DS), and something that's not going away. Although software sales are rather poor. Perhaps that's why Sony has kept the PSP price high (to the extent of not dropping much), so they can actually make a little money on the PSP hardware since they dont get the attach rates?

360's minor sales changes are probably mostly related to how much Elite stock they're shipping, as it's still mostly sold out.

PS3 well, not looking good..price drop ahoy.

July NPD's should hit August 16 by my calculations..

Forza numbers are actually kind of weak unless I'm missing something..

~400k in two months so far..fairly underwhelming for a first party MS game, in a slow time of releases, on a system where owners tend to gobble up games.

I know I wasn't interested, combine all the talk about what a hardcore sim it was with lackluster graphics=me not interested.

Bet ya PGR4 will blow it away..better graphics+less intimidation factor+more fun factor+PGR3 owns.

Forza 2 is 414k in 5 and 1/2 weeks. Last months 217k sales where from 3 days of sales.

414k in 38 days, to be more exact. It'll give you 305k for a regular 4 week month in US.

I agree with you that PGR 4 will blow out Forza 2 in sales. It has to. The fun in Forza 2 is too deep and complex for "Joe Casual" to find it out, the game was released in the valley period of the year for games sales and is a game that gives preference to the perfect representation in terms of physics and controls instead of flashy visual and fantastic (ir)reality.

PGR 4 is the opposite of Forza: Game is shallow and fun, even that is way less rewarding to the hardcore racing fan, is easy to find, gives preference to flashy visuals and fantastic (ir)reality and will be release in the beggining of the peak season for game sales.

PGR 4 has the obligation to at least double Forza 2 sales figures.

Besides what the MSG PR spin wants us to think, Forza 2 is NOT a mainstream game. Is a very, very niche game.
 
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My comments on the numbers:



Nintendo domination, also boring to this hardcore gamer.

Nintendo titles dominating software, third parties still not proving to sell on Nintendo platforms.

Aka 3rd party devs need to release good games if they want to sell. Which isnt any more than logical. Re4 sold quite good even though its the 3rd time capcom releases it. If you make a good game, it can sell on a nintendo platform.
 
Playstation 3 -- 98.5k
Xbox 360 -- 198.4k
Wii -- 381.8k
whoa...

Price drops for Sony and Ms are a must and my guess is the numbers in a slow month like June would look more like

Wii - 355,000
360 - 295,000
PS3 - 185,000


360 software still relatively strong (as usual) however.


NA Year to Date BTW:

Wii: 2,109,000
360: 1,248,000
PS3: 763,000
 
"Double" sounds like a lot. 100k from an install base of 45 million sounds like peanuts. I don't think it's a stretch to say that on top of the usual 100k, 0.2% of PS2 users were waiting for the first price drop.

We've already seen evidence of a PS3 sales spike from Amazon. I think PS3 will hit 200k for July quite easily, and maybe more. Price drop, E3 hype, games on the horizon, etc. The bigger question is how fast it will tail off after that.

It would be more than double since this was a 5 week month and next is a 4 week month. It would be closer to a 2.5x increase to get to 200k. Then the questions are can they sustain that and can they sell some software. Even crap like tenchu z is outselling every PS3 game.
 
I really doubt that PS3 sells more than 120 k in july. Junes sales were still falling slowly on a weekly basis and I doubt that small price cut will change things that much.
 
I really doubt that PS3 sells more than 120 k in july. Junes sales were still falling slowly on a weekly basis and I doubt that small price cut will change things that much.

Well it's not that small of a pricecut, and we did see a significant response in terms of sales in several online stores and such. Just look here:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=pd_dp_ts_vg_1/102-2419145-6589769

The Wii is recently taking the lead back again (they're alternating a little, probably depending on Wii stock ;) ), but the PS3 is still in 2nd place even now. I've looked here daily since the price-cut and it's been in 1st and 2nd spot almost continuously. It's harder to judge how well the 360 is faring, since it's at 23rd now with the 20GB, and 36th with the Elite. But I've seen the Elite at 7th also.
 
Well it's not that small of a pricecut.

It feels quite small however when we factor in that PS3 launched with that same price tag (20GB-model) and it didn't enjoy very large scale success. Of course this is little bit different for many reasons, but essentially they just came back to their original pricepoint with slightly more added value. I believe this will create a temporal spike to their sales numbers and maybe that spike along with the new game releases can increase their numbers permanently.
 
Well it's not that small of a pricecut, and we did see a significant response in terms of sales in several online stores and such. Just look here:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=pd_dp_ts_vg_1/102-2419145-6589769

The Wii is recently taking the lead back again (they're alternating a little, probably depending on Wii stock ;) ), but the PS3 is still in 2nd place even now. I've looked here daily since the price-cut and it's been in 1st and 2nd spot almost continuously. It's harder to judge how well the 360 is faring, since it's at 23rd now with the 20GB, and 36th with the Elite. But I've seen the Elite at 7th also.


I've always wondered what amazon even ranks sales by. Is it dollars, or units? There seems evidence both ways.

Anyways we know two things about PS3 sales in the first two weeks of July NPD. Sony is claiming a 135% increase at the the top 5 retailers, and VGchartz has it's numbers roughly doubled and over the 360. Oh and of course, the improved Amazon ranking.

Remains to be seen how the second two weeks go.
 
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