Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by mpg1, May 25, 2016.

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  1. Jubei

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    IIRC Sony dropped the price on the slim right around Black Friday so i dont think the Pro alone was the driving factor behind the sales uptick, people look for good deals around holiday season. I believe from reading the NPD thread on gaf that Pro was 10% of PS4 sales
     
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  2. iroboto

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    Yea, I agree, I'm not sure what I'm trying to define. I suppose it's just looking for that 'best in category' title I suppose. I dunno. I don't want to veer off topic repeatedly until we derail, I do prefer your approach of just rounding out that library. I like MS' library, its fairly rounded out for me; I could go on about it, but I suppose it's a marketing problem;

    It being a marketing problem, I don't see it as a power challenge, which I guess looping it all back together - Ryzen or not, while it addresses the console aspect of the power curve problem, it doesn't address the software problem (directly). Yea perhaps if Scorpio becomes the the lead platform, and games are back ported to XBO -- then I could see the production of some very good looking titles that change the minds of graphics people (which is generally a hype market imo). Yea I suppose that could be it, at least to Eastmen's point he's trying to get across here. It would only happen that way on first party titles I suppose to begin with.
     
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  3. Jubei

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    If we look at the mess Sony was in last gen, they sold an expensive console that was complicated to program for (similar to XBO launch price and esram) but what kept them alive and pushing through was a strong first party stable that showcased their consoles power. Third party developers wont spend extra money on Scorpio when it will have a tiny install base, game development is already expensive as hell, Microsoft needs to do the job themselves of showcasing the power of Scorpio to sell more consoles wich in turn makes the platform more attractive to third party publishers

    Some of this will possibly happen naturally ,if a company decides to do a UWP title then using PC assets for Scorpio will probably work. But UWP has been a tough sell so far
     
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  4. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    For sure. I suppose it could happen sooner if both Scorpio and 4Pro consistently do well in sales, coupled with the PC space with the majority of video cards sitting approximately in the 970 range, this is fairly possible for a transition period to be less than 3 years.
     
  5. Rangers

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    It seems a little but up in the air what MS is gonna do with scorpio. I think it's possible they allow Scorpio only games. More differences in ports too. Devs could essentially develop two separate versions since the gap is so wide. Maybe we start seeing Pro/Scorpio" and "PS4/X1" versions.

    Do we know there's going to be a "PS5" new generation?

    Scorpio is likely to set the bar so high it's going to be tough to get a PS5 out with a notable power difference to scorpio (say, 2-3X flops absolute minimum) anytime soon. You'd be talking 12-18 teraflops, and I have no idea when that would be viable in a console form factor but doubt for a while, maybe 3+ years.
     
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  6. Jubei

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    I dont think Sony will release PS5 until HBM and the next node jump are affordable, somewhere around 2019/2020. 12 TF, 512 GB/s bandwidth and Zen+ cores at 7nm should be doable in a console form factor by then

    The real question is if they will offer backwards compatibility in the modern era of digital gaming purchases. They have quite a sweet setup going with their remasters at the moment

    Gamers who have spent hundreds of dollars might be upset if those purchases does not follow their upgrade like with their smartphone or Steam.
     
  7. Jay

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    why will it need to be uwp to use pc assets?
    if it's a dx game then the assets should be in correct format.
    being lead platform makes a big difference, but with pc versions of higher res assets, and just upping res and some settings shouldn't be a huge amount of work to do.
    may not be taking full advantage but will at minimum be level of 4pro I suspect.
    studios seem to be adding 4pro into their games, don't see any reason why won't be same for Scorpio(both have small install base), only really need the big aaa games to do bit more.
     
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  8. Jubei

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    Of course you can use PC assets without UWP, im talking about the amount of work required between traditional porting and UWP development

    Im basing it on this article wich may or may not be true

    http://www.windowscentral.com/exclusive-project-scorpio-run-4k-uwp-pc-games-natively

    "When a game is being run by a customer, it will detect the hardware making the runtime request and unpack the correct assets dynamically. Since UWP games on PC already support most Xbox features, including controllers, there will be a minimal amount of work involved when bringing PC UWP games to the Xbox consoles. Our source told us that games such as Gears of War 4, ReCore, Rise of the Tomb Raider and Forza Horizon 3 are already using this system on Xbox One and Windows 10 PCs today. There's also a fair chance the new Call of Duty on the Windows 10 Store is also using this system to prepare for Scorpio, but without seeing the app's manifest, there's no way to know for sure."
     
  9. Jay

    Jay
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    you specifically said pc assets, sorry.
    understand what you meant now.
    that may be Ms ideal what is outlined there, but even without uwp shouldn't be much work to have a Scorpio mode that looks and performs better workout pushing the hardware, should at least match 4pro.

    every year it's only a couple dozen games that aren't exclusive that would really need to be seriously optimized for it from Ms point of view. The big games, and I suspect they will be.
     
  10. Jubei

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    No problem, i should have tried to written more clearly. Im not saying Scorpio wont have enhanced games, its fairly obvious it will just like PS4Pro, i was talking in the context of eastmen saying it will have custom AI/physics improvements or specific use of CPU power not available to the rest of the consoles. That wont happen without abandoning XB1 or Scorpio getting a large install base in a short amount of time
     
  11. Shifty Geezer

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    They might well do, but will devs create for it? Can you count it as a new gen if only a few million people buy it and only a couple of games are developed for it? If MS aren't expecting tens of millions of Scorpio to sell, should they be putting in a Zen CPU to enable next-gen software that won't provide a large enough install base to be targeted by devs?
    Pro isn't next-gen at all with a similar CPU. Scorpio will be next gen if it's capable of playing games impossible on PS4, and PS4 Pro wouldn't be able to play those games.

    there's going to be a new PS console and it's going to have a far better CPU and somewhat better GPU when it launches. It'll be able to offer games impossible on PS4 and Pro. The is of course a question mark as to whether devs target it, but I think it safe to assume the first 20 million will fly off the shelves and with those sorts of numbers a devs can invest in a next-gen only title.

    If true, and it may be, Scorpio may represent the low end of next gen. But a lot depends on CPU and software. If the next-gen games with emergent gameplay and uber physics and whatever makes them next-gen require substantially more CPU that only PS5 and PC can offer, if Scorpio doesn't have a strong enough CPU, then it won't count as a next-gen machine.

    If gameplay doesn't change massively then more CPU goodness won't be so required, meaning PS4 could keep on trucking for years as an entry level 1080p consoles. Then you'd have PS4 Pro and Scorpio as 4K machines, and PS5 playing the same games with swankier 4K. But they'd all be the same games. At which point console generations as a concept is well and truly dead and we'll just have a general evolution with devs picking a lowest common denominator that suits their objectives.
     
  12. rokkerkory

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    Hi Shifty, what do you mean exactly by "playing games impossible on PS4, and PS4 Pro"... most games can be made to run on almost any console in a reduced fidelity or content state right?

    Just wanting to see your take on this as we can always scale back resolution, IQ, content, etc to make a game run on weaker h/w.
     
  13. bunge

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    Doom can't effectively be run on an Atari 2600.
     
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  14. Nesh

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    But will it?
    Scorpio at least for the moment, isnt planned to have exclusive games. Which means any game available on it will also be an XBOX One game which essentially makes it possible for PS4
     
  15. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    To a limit. If the feature set is exactly the same then, yes it's just a scaling. If there are inherent features missing then it's something else, a "maybe" situation. For instance 360 cannot do No mans sky because it doesn't have enough memory. That game uses 64 bit memory addressing to the maximum as does Star Citizen for instance. Memory and architecture is the difference between say Destiny and The Division.

    It's the difference between hard drive as part of the base console, and being able to run off the disc.

    Or if games start being developed around conservative rasterization for everything, then a lot of work arounds or compromises must be made to support it for our current generation of consoles.

    This generation from last generation was the inclusion of compute shaders and async compute. Before that programmable pixel shaders.

    So being able to identify those key features is more important in defining a generation than how many flops are available. At least IMO
     
  16. DrJay24

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    Impossible because the game is compiled for the XB1? They committed to not have Scorpio exclusive games, so it has to run on the 1.3TF box too. It's basically a Pro XB1, but more powerful and a year late (maybe more). I hope that additional horsepower does something other push more pixels.

    If they are smart, they make it BC with XB1, but make it the XB2. But that will piss a lot of folks off and the devs are not going to make games for such a small install base anyhow.
     
  17. rokkerkory

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    Okay that makes sense. I guess we'll have to wait and see the feature set with Scorpio before we can make that call? But since it's just 1 year after PS4 Pro, I doubt there will be enough of a differentiation to call it a new gen.
     
  18. shredenvain

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    I agree with most of what your saying,nbut the devs won't make games for such a small install base doesn't really make sense to me. Every new system starts with a small install base and ever new system has several titles available at launch.

    In addition the Scorpio will function like a PC that's dedicated to gaming. So im sure any developer that supports games for Windows can easily move their title over to the Scorpio. So if MS decided to go back on their no Scorpio exclusive titles promise there would still be games available for the Scorpio regardless of a small install base at launch.
     
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  19. Jay

    Jay
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    For the first 3 years no exclusives allowed, then they are when next set off machines are released. It also drops to the mainstream price bracket.
    I don't see why that would upset anyone.

    would that make Scorpio a next gen machine or not, or next gen at the point when exclusives are allowed?
     
  20. Rangers

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    I think one of the key features of Scorpio is price. Given two likely possible price points, 399 and 499, I think it's much MUCH more attractive at 399. Although at least with a high amount of power, they can justify a high price. Initially Xbox One had the worst of all worlds, less than stellar grunt and a 499 tag, albeit Kinect.

    449 would also be somewhat disappointing.

    My guess (that is almost a certainty) is a 399 500Gb version, and a 499 2TB version, or something like that. Because Spencer heavily played up the idea of different price points based on HDD's when asked.

    Which is fine by me, I already have a 1TB USB HDD hooked to my XBO, and that's been more than adequate storage.

    A 384 bit bus will make it pretty hard to cost reduce, I suppose. Still, again if you bring the power, price reductions become less necessary IMO. And eventually 399 will be the new 299 anyway due inflation.
     
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