Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by mpg1, May 25, 2016.

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  1. Jay

    Jay
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    I expect them to at least have bc, not fc.
    but that's still then a new ecosystem where their starting from scratch.
    one of the reasons I thought if one did fc the other would follow suit also.
     
  2. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    Can't have your cake and eat it too.
     
  3. Shifty Geezer

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    Pricing cheaper than PS4 won't make XB1S more desirable than it presently is. Not unless MS dump the systems at $100+ cheaper than PS4 (which still might not win them anything in RoW as it'd just be seen as a fire-sale of a dying system).

    Scorpio wrestling all high-end buyers away from PS4P (managing to convince PS4 owners to change platform and lose all their PS4 library) will mean all of what? 10% market share? 20%? The high end is a small part of the total market.

    So yeah, we can assume Sony will stay on top. It's exactly as DSoup describes it. There's nothing MS can do to change their position short of tapping in to a new audience; tens of millions of would-be high-end console gamers who presently don't own a console and have no interest in buying a <$300 console nor a <$400 PS4Pro but will buy a $400+ console when Scorpio appears. Just as PS4 Pro not winning the sales race was predicted using Business Savvy by a good number of members on this board, so to is MS not getting to outsell Sony this generation.

    I suppose, to be fair, MS could have a machine in Scorpio that's so desirable every XB1 owner buys it, thus doubling their install base very quickly. 4Pro has failed to ignite the current fanbase into rapid upgrading.
     
  4. iroboto

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    Sony invested a lot into it's library. They've got the right talent and are very good at hunting and filling out their portfolio. That's something that takes a long time to build and very difficult to emulate. However Sony is doing it, their priorities are about selecting games.
     
  5. Nisaaru

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    Only a subset of the market cares for niche titles. What really matters are the AAA multi platform and 1st party titles. The high-end early adopters gamers MS lost in the US/GB with the XB1 they can get back with a convincing console and some game deals the same way Sony got them. With them their friends will come. Why should it be suddenly different? I doubt these people are invected by the Sony label as much as they were about MS a few years ago. They just select a new primary console,
     
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  6. iroboto

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    I'm talking relative strengths of each company. MS can be both great at software and hardware, but I think it's fair to say that Sony is good identifying games for their customer base. Whether or not that leads to additional sales, well, I would say that Sony didn't rocket off because of PS4 was more powerful, but rather they were rocketing off how they capped off PS3 and in combination also having better hardware and marketing.
     
  7. eastmen

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    I hope so

    Sure you can if your willing to pay for it. Really don't know what MS's plan is.

    1) The 1s is desirable right now , they just have to keep it that way. As the price continues to go down its a good option for more casual gamers to pick up as they can enjoy all the third party games and all the ms games at a low buy in and the games will (hopefully) run and play better on Scoprio when they decide that is priced right to jump in.

    2) The high end becomes the low end. When the xbox one fades to the backround scoprio will be there and a sub $300 price point. I fully expect to see Xbox one S and most likely a smaller xbox one s around through 2019.

    3) For MS they can actually capitalize on the current trends instead of Sony's half assed lets throw old shit at the wall and hope people buy it.

    MS can

    a) Have a real 4k machine with amazing graphics above what we currently have. A 6tflop gpu + Zen + more ram can easily enable that.

    b) Have a compelling VR experience with proper 360 degree tracking and perhaps even room scale with modern hand controls like touch. They may be able to even have basic eye tracking and forvate rendering to decrease the demands of vr .

    c) amp up their game tv services by enabling better hardware compression in the systems themselves.


    Sony has a great library I don't disagree even though the majority of their games I don't care for. But a lot of the franchises they are moving them forward are from the ps3 generation. Newer stuff like the order and knack didn't really make a great impression although knack is getting a sequel. MS has new titles coming out like Sea of Thieves and Scale bound and any title can just hit it off with the audience and become a new mega franchise and I believe under Phil they will try and create more franchises in more genres. MS has the money to fund development so that shouldn't be an issue and if Scorpio sells well out of the gate they will devote more resources to it.

    The great thing about scorpio is it doesn't have to be a 2-3 year console . A lot of folks here are already talking about PS5 thinking it will be out in 2018. But MS can keep Scorpio around for years to come. They seem to really love dynamic scaling resolutions. So there is no reason why A xbox next in 2020 or 2021 can't take a gears of war 5 and run it at 4k 60fps with 8x fsaa and other features. They can start programing the titles to take advantage ofthat and I believe they already are through their windows store. Gears 4 has a ton of features graphicly that make it look amazing. I have an xbox one and a radeon r9 290 non x. I can play at 1080p with all the effects turn to the max. It looks like a whole new game vs loading it up on the console. I have no doubt in my mind that Scorpio will play it the same way but at 4k
     
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  8. Shifty Geezer

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    Sure but it's still being outsold. If they want to get on top, they need 1S to be more desirable. There's no way to do that (other than price - see above).

    Meaning? Is PS4 statically priced? Does Scorpio becoming a $250 console invite every PS4 owner to switch out to Scorpio?

    That's not an argument on any point about who MS's market is going to be, just a dig at Sony.

    At the high-end price, so it won't be outselling Sony.

    These what-if answers are really silly. What if Sony adds foveated rendering in PSVR2? Just as possible. What if VR dives and everyone moves on?

    Everyone's going to swap brand allegiance from PS to XB because of Game TV services? You predict when Scorpio releases, MS will end up outselling Sony worldwide driven by this? Is this the same thing as PSTV and game streaming to other rooms, which Sony already has? Are you predicting that it's of little interest to Sony consumers but MS doing it with the latest codecs is going to make the market jump at the opportunity?
     
  9. loekf

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    It's all about content.. and exclusives.

    I could buy a Xbox to sit next to my PS4, but honestly I can think of no reason. GoW or Halo, no thank you. Not good enough.

    Just wondering... after seeing all your posts here... do you work for MS ?
     
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  10. iroboto

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    nah, he's doesn't. But it wouldn't be a bad thing regardless, they pay well and stocks are high and are extremely relevant in software as of late.
    No shame working for MS, they've made great strides to change their business.

    Nothing wrong with taking a position behind MS, honestly we need more people to do that; as much as the player base is skewed towards Sony, my one time stint in games development also revealed similar trend in the developer world. If MS weren't around and it was an all Sony market, I honestly don't think that would be a great thing.
    Granted MS has a lot to do on the consumer side of things, they've also got a lot to do on the studio side of things.
     
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  11. iroboto

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    Maybe I'll double back the question to you: Whats the rush for post PS4P and Scorpio?
    Data shows PS4 completely outselling 4Pro. The driving reasons could be TV sets; it could take years to transition the major population to 4K sets and you already have 2 consoles that are made to output 1080p games to 4K.

    Why would they need a new console if the market isn't moving as quickly as they want to, to 4K?
    VR hasn't substantially taken off.
    What graphics technology has been released that would provide that generation leap in graphics (with a 4K resolution requirement)?
    What graphics are todays console incapable of doing that would be such a strong selling point for a new generation? (ignoring resolution drops)

    Like, as a group, if we were to design PS5 and XBOToo, like what would it be and why? Where are we headed? And it's just too early to chart that course, because it can change.
    imo, the only reason we're seeing 4Pro and Scorpio was because 4K was released, they needed something to fill that newly created gap; we've yet to see either console max out entirely, there's still things that can be built and changed. Maybe 2 more years from now, when we start to see the maximum limitations of both these 2013 consoles will this discussion probably make more sense. But I mean, as long as they continue to evolve and improve, it feels premature to start designing a new console.
     
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  12. Jay

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    Have to admit I'm not sure if you quoted me by mistake or if I'm just misunderstanding what your saying (or maybe you me?)

    My point was that when Sony releases the PS5 (whenever that may be, 6months to 10 years) if they do a generation reset which is what was being discussed and what they hinted at, then the PS5 userbase/market share will be reset also.
    Where as XO2 will not be resting and will at that point have a much larger userbase.
    Maybe Sony would do something different like making ps4 and ps5 crossplay compatible? This could blur the generation possibly for online games.
     
  13. iroboto

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    Yea i misinterpreted it / read that too fast. You're point in pretty valid, but at the same time there are pros and cons to every decision. If the leap in hardware is great enough, a hard cut would push developers to develop differently, no older technology to hold you back.

    Then again, you would actually need a technology that was so much better and generationally different in order for that to happen, And I don't think that's happening, at least I'm not expecting any hardware breakthroughs for a while, we may very well be at plateau point for some time until something better comes along.
     
  14. Jay

    Jay
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    No problem.
    Yea, I did mention in a previous post that there's pros and cons to both. Didn't highlight them though as the conversation was about marketshare/userbase etc.

    Just hadn't seen anyone pose that point, especially in the context of Sony saying that the ps5 could/would be a new generation.
     
  15. iroboto

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    Right, sorry, i'm all over the place. Mornings are never good for me with a 1 and 3 year old crying through the night. Umm, yea, you're right about user base and marketshare. They're definitely valid points you contributed to. I don't know if it's a driving force for them.
    Things I don't know:
    a) I don't quite know Sony's financial structure, but it may be in their best interest for their customers to reset. Licensing from consoles, from what I understand is like 30%. You want games to be bought at the highest purchase price possible (new titles) so the idea of providing BC and supporting a long old games with a discount price structure over remasters doesn't sound tempting at an ear shot.
    b) I don't know the time required to for their population to migrate over to a new console. I assume this is fast or favourable enough that this strategy of reseting is still valid.
    c) I don't know how large the gap between the two consoles will be when PS5 hits. If the gap is still massive, then it would not be a negative thing for them to reset. Where if MS is right on their coat tails, this could be a little more risky as the losses from people who are unwilling to reset may turn the leadership over to MS (not ideal).

    I feel like Scorpio is the odd child here, we still don't really know if it's a supposed to be a new generation machine, or a 4K stop gap fix. The hardware details will let us know but that wont be for another 6 months I feel like, maybe less, 4-5 months to begin the hype towards E3.
     
  16. Jay

    Jay
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    I personally don't think it matters what the spec of the machine is, in my eyes you can have a big generational jump or a small one. It's more about the software and ecosystem Imo.

    The Scorpio could be a good/ok 4k machine now, and a strong 1080p machine when the next machine comes along. if it's fc and bc then there in same echo system.
    Generation becomes nebulous.
     
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  17. BRiT

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    Nope, and some of my early consoles have been Sony products, PSX and PSX2.
     
  18. Tkumpathenurpahl

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    I've been with PlayStation since the PS1 but, if Sony want me to start afresh with the PS5, I'll jump ship to a console manufacturer that doesn't expect me throw away my old library.

    Remasters are great, but what about the games that never sold well enough to warrant one? Locked to your old, one day obsolete and broken, console.
     
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  19. eastmen

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    But in the USA it is the most desirable. In other countries it isn't but then again neither was the xbox 360 and yet MS still managed to virtually tie sony

    The ps4 has a lower boundry and that is above the ps4 price. So at some point the PS4 pro will eat into the ps4 sales. Right now its a $100 difference and I don't see it shrinking. The xbox one s is $300 but we don't know the price difference between the S and Scorpio. At Scorpio launch the One could be $200 and Scorpio $400 sandwiching the ps4s together . Neither as cheap at the low end or as powerful at the highend
    Its not a dig at sony. Its about customers who want the best experience and they will choose scorpio.
    The high end price right now is what the pro is priced at. Scorpio at the pro price point of 2017 wil outsell it

    Sony could add it in PSVR 2 and then sony will support PS4 , PS4 pro , Ps4 with psvr , PS4 with Psvr 2 , PS4 pro with psvr , Ps4 pro with psvr 2. Ps5 ??? With psvr 1 , PS5 with psvr 2..... Seems to be a lot of balls rolling. Or does sony start killing products off a year or two into their life ?

    Add to that , MS is going to have shipping partner products with inside out tracking coming early next year. They already are demoing the future. MS can make a stream line package. You want a low end entry price , you get xbox one s. You want high end gaming you get Scorpio , you want high end + VR get Scorpio and the headset. No confusion , no one getting left behind. A simple marketing message.
    Not everyone will switch. Millions stayed with ps3 for some crazy reason.

    I am talking about Twitch and Beam. I am talking about including the tools and hardware that elgato has built into the higher end boxes. I am talking about MS adding hardware support for custom codecs beyong vp9 and h.265 and so on . And yes it will bleed into in house streaming since that currently takes up a ton of bandwidth being able to compress the image more while keeping quality up will allow more people to take advantage of it.

    There is an increasingly bigger audience that gets their information from streamers and streamers will want to produce the best stream for the lowest price. I believe MS will tap into that with their purchase of Beam and Scorpio .
     
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  20. Shifty Geezer

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    What's your definition of 'on top'? You were talking about MS out manoeuvring Sony to end up 'on top', which I assume meant best worldwide sales (either install base or annual sales). If meaning either of those, it isn't going to happen even outselling Sony 2:1 in the US.

    Why won't PS4 be able to be priced the same as 1S?

    That's not discussing the available audiences though. We have existing console owners who are upgrading, and potentially new customers. Who is Scorpio going to sell to and why? Existing PS4 owners who want a better console but feel PS4 Pro is too half-arsed?

    Confused again! Scorpio is going to be the same price as 4Pro in 2017 and outsell it? If so, are those sales going to make up the difference between PS and XB sales and see MS 'on top'?

    Discussing hypothetical marketing moves still doesn't tackle the whole 'who is the audience' question. All other questions are just people throwing up possibilities, any of which may or may not happen. A few years ago we were talking about 'what if MS get a consolidated Windows experience across devices?' Sounded great on paper; I was expecting MS to make major headway with Win 10 and end up replacing my Android phone with a Windows phone like many millions of others. End result years later was nothing like this level of execution and success. 'What ifs' like these aren't a meaningful discussion in my mind as anyone can come up with positive and negative what-ifs which aren't based in anything concrete.

    So I go back to the original question based on the present and near future realities of who Scorpio is going to sell to and how that'll be many millions more than PS4's being sold such that MS ends up 'on top'.

    Okay. So your speculating that adding high end codecs to Scorpio will see it selling faster than PS4 as the mainstream consumer is going to consider this a priority differentiating feature. I'll just disagree with you on that one. ;)
     
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