Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[Deleted member 11852]

I don't understand how people repeatedly see their preferred manufacturer so smart, calculating and clever and view the other manufacturer as stupid and unable to react. It's nonsense.

 

[temesgen]

But in the USA it is the most desirable. In other countries it isn't but then again neither was the xbox 360 and yet MS still managed to virtually tie sony



The ps4 has a lower boundry and that is above the ps4 price. So at some point the PS4 pro will eat into the ps4 sales. Right now its a $100 difference and I don't see it shrinking. The xbox one s is $300 but we don't know the price difference between the S and Scorpio. At Scorpio launch the One could be $200 and Scorpio $400 sandwiching the ps4s together . Neither as cheap at the low end or as powerful at the highend
Its not a dig at sony. Its about customers who want the best experience and they will choose scorpio.

The high end price right now is what the pro is priced at. Scorpio at the pro price point of 2017 wil outsell it



Sony could add it in PSVR 2 and then sony will support PS4 , PS4 pro , Ps4 with psvr , PS4 with Psvr 2 , PS4 pro with psvr , Ps4 pro with psvr 2. Ps5 ??? With psvr 1 , PS5 with psvr 2..... Seems to be a lot of balls rolling. Or does sony start killing products off a year or two into their life ?

Add to that , MS is going to have shipping partner products with inside out tracking coming early next year. They already are demoing the future. MS can make a stream line package. You want a low end entry price , you get xbox one s. You want high end gaming you get Scorpio , you want high end + VR get Scorpio and the headset. No confusion , no one getting left behind. A simple marketing message.


Not everyone will switch. Millions stayed with ps3 for some crazy reason.

I am talking about Twitch and Beam. I am talking about including the tools and hardware that elgato has built into the higher end boxes. I am talking about MS adding hardware support for custom codecs beyong vp9 and h.265 and so on . And yes it will bleed into in house streaming since that currently takes up a ton of bandwidth being able to compress the image more while keeping quality up will allow more people to take advantage of it.

There is an increasingly bigger audience that gets their information from streamers and streamers will want to produce the best stream for the lowest price. I believe MS will tap into that with their purchase of Beam and Scorpio .

Xbox one is the most desired console in US? I'm pretty sure the install base in United States favors PS4 just like rest of the world. MS is doing better over past quarter or so but it would take quite a bit to change the reality on the ground.

 

[function]

I don't understand how people repeatedly see their preferred manufacturer so smart, calculating and clever and view the other manufacturer as stupid and unable to react. It's nonsense.

As a Sega fan, I used to see things the opposite way ...

 

[fehu]

according to vgchartz for north america the numbers are 14.6M and 16.35M up to 29/10
the difference was just 1.75M
at least they can be sure to sell this christmas more than triple the units compared to nintendo switch

 

[temesgen]

As a Sega fan, I used to see things the opposite way ...

Butt hurt Sega fandom might be responsible for some of the predictable analysis... lol

 

[mrcorbo]

I don't understand how people repeatedly see their preferred manufacturer so smart, calculating and clever and view the other manufacturer as stupid and unable to react. It's nonsense.

Sure you do. People see what they want to see and are often not conscious of they ways their biases and preconceptions are skewing their perception.

 

[eastmen]

What's your definition of 'on top'? You were talking about MS out manoeuvring Sony to end up 'on top', which I assume meant best worldwide sales (either install base or annual sales). If meaning either of those, it isn't going to happen even outselling Sony 2:1 in the US.

I am sure for MS its software sales that matter and if they are able to sell more software they will make money

Why won't PS4 be able to be priced the same as 1S?

The ps4 uses more xpensive ram and sony itself can't absorb as big of a hit as ms can.

That's not discussing the available audiences though. We have existing console owners who are upgrading, and potentially new customers. Who is Scorpio going to sell to and why? Existing PS4 owners who want a better console but feel PS4 Pro is too half-arsed?

What are you asking. Do you think those are the only people who might want a higher end console ? People who think ps4 pro is half assed ? How about people who want the best console gaming experience period. People who want the best console vr experience . People who want the best online services on a console and so on

Confused again! Scorpio is going to be the same price as 4Pro in 2017 and outsell it? If so, are those sales going to make up the difference between PS and XB sales and see MS 'on top'?

Scoprio can be any price ms wants it to be. Scorpio can outsell Pro and can even be ahead of pro in total sales. Scorpio + One s can regain and surpase Sony's market share in the future

Discussing hypothetical marketing moves still doesn't tackle the whole 'who is the audience' question. All other questions are just people throwing up possibilities, any of which may or may not happen. A few years ago we were talking about 'what if MS get a consolidated Windows experience across devices?' Sounded great on paper; I was expecting MS to make major headway with Win 10 and end up replacing my Android phone with a Windows phone like many millions of others. End result years later was nothing like this level of execution and success. 'What ifs' like these aren't a meaningful discussion in my mind as anyone can come up with positive and negative what-ifs which aren't based in anything concrete.

What are you saying. IS windows 10 scrapped ? No one told MS . Windows 10 continues to move into more market segments as time goes on. You may yet replace your android phone with a windows phone .

So I go back to the original question based on the present and near future realities of who Scorpio is going to sell to and how that'll be many millions more than PS4's being sold such that MS ends up 'on top'.

Scorpio can sell to anyone. Want bluray uhd ? Can the pro provide it ? Can the ps4 provide it ? Perhaps xbox scorpio will . Have an xbox one and want to play all your games from the 360 and one but bought a 4k tv and want to play in 4k. PS4 / PRO can't do that but Scoprio can. Want a high end VR experience on consoles .. Scorpio can but the pro and ps4 can't. There are a host of possibilities . What made the ps4 sell over the xbox one and brought over xbox 360 owners ? Its not going to be a single answer for everyone but as long as the console or eco system provides enough reasons for a person they will move over

Okay. So your speculating that adding high end codecs to Scorpio will see it selling faster than PS4 as the mainstream consumer is going to consider this a priority differentiating feature. I'll just disagree with you on that one.

So you disagree that having famous people shrill for a company will get the mainstream to buy that product ?

If pewdie pie starts streaming all his games from a scorpio or boogie or angry joe and so on you think their user base wont be swayed ?

 

[eastmen]

Xbox one is the most desired console in US? I'm pretty sure the install base in United States favors PS4 just like rest of the world. MS is doing better over past quarter or so but it would take quite a bit to change the reality on the ground.

The xbox one s has been the most desired console in NA since its introduction. It has won the npd all the months its been avalible and may have won Nov also.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Just as PS4 Pro not winning the sales race was predicted using Business Savvy by a good number of members on this board.

I think you are pushing too much air through the victory horn with the amount of proper data we currently have. Although "winning the sales race" can mean quite a few things. I also like to point out that when the Pro was unveiled, it was positioned at $399 with no games on top of the base unit $299 with no games. Now we've seen deals for the base unit at $249 or even at $212 with games, so the scenario is hardly the same.

PS4 Pro has also been on the market for very short time, meaning that people aren't as much aware of it as they will be and future games should have more impressive Pro batches + the continuing rise of 4K TV adaption should increase the proportion of Pro sales among the PS4 SKUs.

I admit that London-Boy still rocking the peasant SKU is a surprise, disappointment and a slap in the face!

 

[bunge]

How about people who want the best console gaming experience period.

Well, they'll buy a PlayStation obviously.

 

[iroboto]

PS4 Pro has also been on the market for very short time, meaning that people aren't as much aware of it as they will be and future games should have more impressive Pro batches + the continuing rise of 4K TV adaption should increase the proportion of Pro sales among the PS4 SKUs.

Well, we still haven't touched on final numbers, but if Pro had very _broad_ appeal to the mass market, I think we would see very large pre-order numbers converge on the month of November. I think the statement that both consoles were able to pass 4Pro so easily in just a week of sales is more less
a) not a surprise, there was little evidence to suggest that 4Pro had the draw PS4 had coming off PS3
b) fairly indicative of the actual market in both: how much the general population understand technology, thus anything that came out of Cerny's mouth for Sony's presentation, and the number of folks that can actually leverage 4Pro's advantages may not be as large as any of us suspected.

I want to cap off with this interesting data graphic:
Source:
https://www.nngroup.com/articles/computer-skill-levels/

The 4 Levels of Technology Proficiency
The researchers defined 4 levels of proficiency, based on the types of tasks users can complete successfully. For each level, here’s the percentage of the population (averaged across the OECD countries) who performed at that level, as well as the report’s definition of the ability of people within that level.

“Below Level 1” = 14% of Adult Population
Being too polite to use a term like “level zero,” the OECD researchers refer to the lowest skill level as “below level 1.”

This is what people below level 1 can do: “Tasks are based on well-defined problems involving the use of only one function within a generic interface to meet one explicit criterion without any categorical or inferential reasoning, or transforming of information. Few steps are required and no sub-goal has to be generated.”

An example of task at this level is “Delete this email message” in an email app.

Level 1 = 29% of Adult Population
This is what level-1 people can do: “Tasks typically require the use of widely available and familiar technology applications, such as email software or a web browser. There is little or no navigation required to access the information or commands required to solve the problem. The problem may be solved regardless of the respondent’s awareness and use of specific tools and functions (e.g. a sort function). The tasks involve few steps and a minimal number of operators. At the cognitive level, the respondent can readily infer the goal from the task statement; problem resolution requires the respondent to apply explicit criteria; and there are few monitoring demands (e.g. the respondent does not have to check whether he or she has used the appropriate procedure or made progress towards the solution). Identifying content and operators can be done through simple match. Only simple forms of reasoning, such as assigning items to categories, are required; there is no need to contrast or integrate information.”

The reply-to-all task described above requires level-1 skills. Another example of level-1 task is “Find all emails from John Smith.”

Level 2 = 26% of Adult Population
This is what level-2 people can do: “At this level, tasks typically require the use of both generic and more specific technology applications. For instance, the respondent may have to make use of a novel online form. Some navigation across pages and applications is required to solve the problem. The use of tools (e.g. a sort function) can facilitate the resolution of the problem. The task may involve multiple steps and operators. The goal of the problem may have to be defined by the respondent, though the criteria to be met are explicit. There are higher monitoring demands. Some unexpected outcomes or impasses may appear. The task may require evaluating the relevance of a set of items to discard distractors. Some integration and inferential reasoning may be needed.”

An example of level-2 task is “You want to find a sustainability-related document that was sent to you by John Smith in October last year.”

Level 3 = 5% of Adult Population
This is what this most-skilled group of people can do: “At this level, tasks typically require the use of both generic and more specific technology applications. Some navigation across pages and applications is required to solve the problem. The use of tools (e.g. a sort function) is required to make progress towards the solution. The task may involve multiple steps and operators. The goal of the problem may have to be defined by the respondent, and the criteria to be met may or may not be explicit. There are typically high monitoring demands. Unexpected outcomes and impasses are likely to occur. The task may require evaluating the relevance and reliability of information in order to discard distractors. Integration and inferential reasoning may be needed to a large extent.”

The meeting room task described above requires level-3 skills. Another example of level-3 task is “You want to know what percentage of the emails sent by John Smith last month were about sustainability.”

Can’t Use Computers = 26% of Adult Population
The numbers for the 4 skill levels don’t sum to 100% because a large proportion of the respondents never attempted the tasks, being unable to use computers. In total, across the OECD countries, 26% of adults were unable to use a computer.

That one quarter of the population can’t use a computer at all is the most serious element of the digital divide. To a great extent, this problem is caused by computers still being much too complicated for many people.

So I gotta ask, what level do you require to understand Sony's presentation on 4Pro, and its implications, and how much of the American population is able to translate that into language that the average consumer can understand. I imagine this wasn't hard for kids when they asked for PS4 or tried to explain why PS4 over XBO. But 4Pro over PS4. Yea that one... lol. I can't imagine an average 13 yr old try to explain to me super sampling or checkerboard rendering.

Something to consider, obviously 4Pro has been a success in my eyes, over the course of it's life time Sony will be looking at other methods to promote its product (ideally without Cerny speak). MS will need to spend a lot of time here figuring out how they want to market this one. Their policies, their marketing, the language and goals, will all constitute how this will go down.

It's quite interesting to say the least, push too hard in promoting Scorpio as being the best thing there is, you are likely going to cut into XBO S sales. Which is fine, if margins are better on Scorpio for instance.

I admit that London-Boy still rocking the peasant SKU is a surprise, disappointment and a slap in the face!

LOL

 

[wco81]

Probably would have gotten the PS4P if it had UHD Blu Ray.

Games alone aren't enough any more for me.

 

[Tkumpathenurple]

It's certainly an incredibly stupid decision for Sony not to have included a UHD Blu-ray player in their 4k machine. Tits.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

So I gotta ask, what level do you require to understand Sony's presentation on 4Pro, and its implications, and how much of the American population is able to translate that into language that the average consumer can understand. I imagine this wasn't hard for kids when they asked for PS4 or tried to explain why PS4 over XBO. But 4Pro over PS4. Yea that one... lol. I can't imagine an average 13 yr old try to explain to me super sampling or checkerboard rendering.

I don't think they really need to go any in depth details for the larger crowds. Just do something like Apple does. A big 2X in a slide and someone talking about even more beautiful visuals.

LOL

I was mostly joking, but you got to admit. It is surprising.

 

[iroboto]

I don't think they really need to go any in depth details for the larger crowds. Just do something like Apple does. A big 2X in a slide and someone talking about even more beautiful visuals.

Agreed.
Thats actually what I was thinking too. They should have kept it simple. I get people don't like the way MS markets Scorpio, but honestly its the easiest way for people to understand it.

"Why should i buy the Scorpio"

"It's the most powerful console ever built"

It's simple, people get it. It's not a great statement, but entertainment marketing is often a sum of checklists/stat sheets. Android has been using this tactic for years against Apple, and chip wars have never been any different.

I was mostly joking, but you got to admit. It is surprising.

oh I know, i thought it was pretty lol. IIRC I think the 4K TV set is what held him back. As soon as he finds the one he wants for his price point, I see him diving in.

 

[wco81]

IIRC I think the 4K TV set is what held him back. As soon as he finds the one he wants for his price point, I see him diving in.

The LG OLEDs have dropped quite a bit in price in the last month. I think the list prices in the US are $3000 for the 65-inch B6 and C6 models, $2500 for the 55-inch.

And people have gotten the 65-inch for under $2400 and the 55-inch for $1500 during Black Friday, Cyber Monday weeks.

Now, there are rumors that Sony is about to use LG OLED panels and slap on their logo, as well as their motion processing and scalers for prices under $3000. Now will this be this year's OLED panels or next year's panels? Will they license Dolby Vision?

CES could be interesting for people who've been sitting on the fence, like myself.

 

[iroboto]

The LG OLEDs have dropped quite a bit in price in the last month. I think the list prices in the US are $3000 for the 65-inch B6 and C6 models, $2500 for the 55-inch.

And people have gotten the 65-inch for under $2400 and the 55-inch for $1500 during Black Friday, Cyber Monday weeks.

Now, there are rumors that Sony is about to use LG OLED panels and slap on their logo, as well as their motion processing and scalers for prices under $3000. Now will this be this year's OLED panels or next year's panels? Will they license Dolby Vision?

CES could be interesting for people who've been sitting on the fence, like myself.

I'm gonna wait 3 more years
I'm so desperate for a 65" FreeSync, OLED 144Hz 4K set with near 0 input lag, I recognize that's it may be unreasonable, but man, once you see the frames its hard to go back.

I went from 120fps on my Gsync monitor playing OW down to 30fps destiny on my xbox, honestly, it was the most jarring thing ever. My eyes had adapted to the super high refresh and it made destiny feel like I was playing through some sort of slide show. really awkward for 5 minutes of play until my eyes adjusted again.

 

[wco81]

Then 8k panels may be showing up

 

[Michellstar]

Agreed.
Thats actually what I was thinking too. They should have kept it simple. I get people don't like the way MS markets Scorpio, but honestly its the easiest way for people to understand it.

"Why should i buy the Scorpio"

"It's the most powerful console ever built"

It's simple, people get it. It's not a great statement, but entertainment marketing is often a sum of checklists/stat sheets. Android has been using this tactic for years against Apple, and chip wars have never been any different.


oh I know, i thought it was pretty lol. IIRC I think the 4K TV set is what held him back. As soon as he finds the one he wants for his price point, I see him diving in.

I don´t know if its the global advert for the Ps4Pro, but ironically that´s how they try to sell the pro in Spain: the new Ps4, the most powerful console, your games in 4k, yadda yadda.

 

[iroboto]

I don´t know if its the global advert for the Ps4Pro, but ironically that´s how they try to sell the pro in Spain: the new Ps4, the most powerful console, your games in 4k, yadda yadda.

Yea thats definitely the way to go. I'm actually a cord cutter so I haven't been following the latest ads, its only what I get from the internet, and unfortunately thats not painting the mainstream picture for me well.