All purpose Sales and Sales Rumours and Anecdotes [2023 Edition]

[Nesh]

A lot of people people aren't thinking about high end luxury.
It is a luxury enough for them to even have a mid tier or a low tier.
Not everyone is looking to have 4K, high end, high framerates. Being able to play new games is what matters the most for someone who has other priorities to deal with, and saving to get the best of the best comes second.
Hence why Switch and Series S is very attractive.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I don't pretend to be an authority on how people budget but in terms of consumers wanting things, if their weekly/monthly income is positive then saving over time is how you afford more expensive items.

If you can 250-300 now, but not 500 later because you cannot save any month each week/month then how would also you pay for games over time?

Yes, but you often have a bucket list of things you'd like to have or things that need to be fixed/replaced or things that need to be updated. Depending on your income level, responsible saving habits (all too rare these days), household size, budgeting for entertainment is often spread among various activities, items and family (gifts for immediate and extended family depending on how important relatives are to you).

I grew up poor so have run the gamut from not enough budget to afford anything except buying books at the used book store (0.05 - 0.25 USD a book) and a movie a month (1 - 2 USD a month) to being able to mostly afford whatever reasonably priced thing I'd like and everything in between.

I know a guy who owns his own business and has a family of 5. He could easily afford a 500+ USD console, but he likes taking frequent vacations with the family (including weekend jaunts in the outdoors (hiking, fishing, hunting, etc.) so he's got a couple of XBS-S consoles (to reduce competition for the console if more than one person wants to game). In other words while he technically can afford to budget for a 500+ USD console, he couldn't because there were other greater priorities for expendable income (income not going directly into savings, college funds, maintainence on the house, food, clothing, etc).

Then I also have, as an example, a cousin who literally can't afford a 500+ USD console. As is they had to make some sacrifices to the food they were eating for a few months to save up for an XBS-S console.

Regards,
SB

 

[Sonic]

Many people don't think ahead like that. Especially Grandma buying little Jimmy's present.

Those grandmas really pull through for Nintendo.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Yes, but you often have a bucket list of things you'd like to have or things that need to be fixed/replaced or things that need to be updated.

You've just described life.

People who have no ability to save money regularly will be as stymied by a Series S and as they a Series X, except those with a Series X may will have the option to borrow games from a library on disc. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Johnny Awesome]

The sales *data* will tell the story.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

The sales will tell the story.

Sales of Series S and Series X will not reveal what people would have done had Series S not been an option. There's only a few options.

Anecdotally, would you have bought a Series X, a PS5, something else, or nothing?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

People who have no ability to save money regularly will be as stymied by a Series S and as they a Series X, except those with a Series X may will have the option to borrow games from a library on disc. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

But that's just not the case, in almost any situation. Every day in life you make choices about what you can afford and what you want.

People with no ability to save are the ones that can afford it the most easily due to their inability to save. Yes, their purchasing power is more limited, sort of. They instead lean on debt spending (credit) and are often up to their necks in debt. However, their inability to save means they are conditioned to buy on impulse (going further into debt). However, that means their purchasing power at any given time is directly limited by their income minus expenses plus credit limit. If they can afford an XBS-S but not a PS5/XBS-X they aren't going to save because they aren't capable of saving. Their only options are often to either buy the cheaper thing or try to get more credit to afford the more expensive thing. But as they are basically living paycheck to paycheck, they likely aren't getting more credit. Likewise, if they happen to have the cash on hand to buy the higher priced console they'll do it. But you'll rarely see anyone in this category of spenders saving up for a console, although it does happen.

My cousin I mentioned earlier is in this camp. They pay the minimum (/groan) payment on their credit cards and loans and buy things in the moment as they can afford them.

People that can save (for retirement, college funds, medical emergency funds, expensive luxury items, etc.) will generally also have a budget. They can save because they are good at sticking to a budget to a greater or lesser degree. They can save for a more expensive console but if they have higher priorities for discretionary spending, they won't be able to buy the higher priced console and instead will get the lower priced console. Now, priorities vary from person to person and family to family. So even given the same discretionary budget some people/families will be able to "afford" a higher priced console because it's higher on their bucket list and some won't be able to afford the higher priced console because it's lower on their bucket list.

In other words if it's low on the bucket list, you'll be saving the majority of money over potentially weeks/months/years in order to afford that high priced item that's higher on the bucket list. If there's dozens of things with a higher priority or desirability a gaming console will always have low priority any monthly discretionary spending or future saved spending. That means it's generally going to come out of your monthly discretionary spending and anything you save for a future purchase is going to other more desirable items. Yes, they can technically afford a higher priced console, but in terms of their budget and sticking to it, they actually can't afford a higher priced console.

That friend who owns his own business with a family of 5 I mentioned earlier took 4 months to get 2 XBS-S consoles, not because he couldn't technically afford to just get both at the same time (if he wanted to he could have purchased 2-3 PS5's at 1k+ USD each on any given day when they were supply constrained), but because of how they were budgeting their discretionary cash he could only allocate enough for an XBS-S one month and then 4 months later he could use some of it to get another one. He "could" have saved the money from the first to combine it with the money from the second to get a more expensive PS5 or XBS-X, but that was coming out of the monthly spending part of the budget. If he was going to use that cash to save for something, it would have gone towards something higher on the list of items that require saving money. But regardless, it was money in the monthly spending part of the budget and if he hadn't gotten an XBS-S the money would have been spent for something else at that time (likely something the kids wanted as the consoles were purchased for the kids).

Yes it's life. Just because you can afford something doesn't mean you really can afford that thing or maybe better stated as "it doesn't really mean want or need that thing". I mean you want it, just not enough to spend more for it because there are other things you want more. Cheaper alternatives are great for things like that.

Like, I technically could afford an RTX 3090 last year, but instead I bought a Radeon 6800 because I was sticking to my budget and there were things I wanted more that weren't worth sacrificing in order to get an RTX 3090. I wanted one sure, but not more than I wanted other things. Likewise with saving for it, I could have saved for it, but there are other things I value more that I want to save money for. So in the end while I could afford it, I actually couldn't afford it while sticking to my budget so I got the best GPU that I realistically could afford while not breaking my budget.

Regards,
SB

 

[Deleted member 11852]

People with no ability to save are the ones that can afford it the most easily due to their inability to save.

That's not a statement on an individual's financial impulse control, like I said in my previous email I'm talking about people whose monthly budget is in the black, i.e. they can afford to spend money. Then if don't spend you can save and can afford things that exceed that monthly surplus.

I'm not presenting a social commentary, I'm talking basic math. If you income/outgoings are neutral, you're going to struggling to pay for games regardless of whether you bought, or had bought for you, a Series S or Series X. The whole console economy is predicated on the the profits being in users buying games (or paying subs to access games), it's that way for a reason.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Yeah, but you'd be surprised how many people don't worry about the future, especially Grandma. LOL.

I expect we may never know the full story on X vs. S sales and all the hypotheticals, but if in 2028 there are 30 million S and 30 million X units out there, I think it's a safe thing to say that MS made a wise move with the S. If it's 10/50 they didn't. If it's in the middle, we'll debate it endlessly on these forums.

 

[Shortbread]

Per Welfare...

(NPD) October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue

State of the market
U.S. consumer spending on video game content, hardware and accessories fell 5% vs YA, to $4.0B. Declines were experienced across all categories of spend. The dip was partially driven by Call of Duty shifting release months.

Spending on video game content in October fell 4% when compared to a year ago, to $3.6 billion. Growth in physical console software and mobile spending was offset by declines in other areas, particularly digital premium downloads driven by the release date shift of Call of Duty.

Hardware
Video game hardware spending fell 23% when compared to a year ago, to $327 million. All current generation consoles experienced a double-digit percentage decline in dollar sales when compared to a year ago.

PlayStation 5 was the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during October 2023. Xbox Series ranked 2nd in dollar sales, while Switch was #2 in units. Year-to-date hardware spending was 6% higher when compared to the same period in 2022, at $4.0 billion.

Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 was the best-selling game of October, instantly becoming the 4th best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 also led all titles in physical software dollar sales during October. Launch month dollar sales of Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 exceeded those of September 2018’s Marvel’s Spider-Man by a double-digit percentage.

Super Mario Bros. Wonder debuted as the #2 best-selling game of October 2023. It currently ranks as the 21st best-selling game of 2023 year-to-date (note: digital sales for Nintendo published titles are not inluded in the title sales ranking charts).

Roblox was released on PlayStation platforms during October and ranked 4th across all titles on PlayStation 5 in U.S. monthly active users, according to Circana’s Player Engagement Tracker, trailing only Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II, Fortnite and Marvel’s Spider-Man 2.

The Finals from Embark Studios held an open beta on Steam during October, helping the title rank 4th overall in Steam monthly active users in the U.S. market. Only Counter-Strike 2, Baldur’s Gate III and Cyberpunk 2077 were higher.

Mobile
Sensor Tower reports the top 10 games by Oct U.S. consumer spend and rank chg vs Sep as: MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga, Pokémon GO, Coin Master, Jackpot Party – Casino Slots (+2), Gardenscapes (-1), Township (+1), and Clash of Clans (+8).

“US mobile gaming spend in Oct 2023 showed a modest increase (+2.1%) compared to Oct 2022. The top six games remain unchanged, as MONOPOLY GO!’s revenue seems to have finally stabilized (at a velocity considerably higher than its competitors),” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower.

"There were a few shuffles in the bottom four of the list, but the highlight this month is Clash of Clans, which jumped up 8 places to take the #10 spot,” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower. “Clash of Clans showed the most growth month over month of any mobile game in Oct 2023."

Accessories
October 2023 accessories spending fell 2% when compared to a year ago, to $147 million. The PS5 Dual Sense Wireless Controller Midnight Black was the month’s best-selling accessory in consumer spending.

Software charts

Year To Date

Nintendo / PlayStation / Xbox charts are no longer being reported.

Monthly Active User Engagement

PS5

Xbox Series

Steam

Rankings
Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
Revenue: PS5 > XBS > NSW

YTD Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
YTD Revenue: PS5 > NSW > XBS

Thanks Mat Piscatella!


Welfare's estimates
PS5: 320k
NSW: 210k
XBS: 200k

Full Estimations for 2023

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
Jan-23	430,000	200,000	280,000
Feb-23	560,000	240,000	290,000
Mar-23	660,000	280,000	340,000
Apr-23	360,000	180,000	420,000
May-23	270,000	160,000	450,000
Jun-23	430,000	240,000	350,000
Jul-23	270,000	160,000	240,000
Aug-23	360,000	210,000	200,000
Sep-23	480,000	300,000	200,000
Oct -23	320,000	200,000	210,000
YTD	4,150,000	2,170,000	2,980,000
LTD	16,050,000	11,870,000	42,390,000

Results for 2022 (NSW monthly numbers are Welfare's estimations but it's total is from NPD. PS5 and XBS monthly and total numbers are from NPD)

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
Jan-22	369,000	307,000	270,000
Feb-22	128,000	261,000	410,000
Mar-22	282,000	489,000	540,000
Apr-22	234,000	267,000	365,000
May-22	119,000	177,000	270,000
Jun-22	277,000	260,000	385,000
Jul-22	301,000	147,000	310,000
Aug-22	341,000	251,000	295,000
Sep-22	494,00	288,000	325,000
Oct-22	456,000	261,000	250,000
Nov-22	1,328,000	730,000	920,000
Dec-22	1,331,000	942,000	1,490,000
Total	5,660,000	4,480,000	5,830,000

NPD 2022 Yearly and Lifetime sales

	2022	LTD
NSW	5,830,000	39,410,000
PS5	5,660,000	11,900,000
XBS	4,480,000	9,700,000
PS4	50,000	34,760,000

 

[chris1515]

in US

Circana October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units+Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue (PS5 and XBS LTD Update)

Unless I'm missing something the report only sales dollar sales are down YoY Lite sales would need to be a super significant portion of sales in October to keep sales flat, and Series S as well for Xbox. Nothing points to this being the case at any retailer. Mat doesn't usually specify units...

www.installbaseforum.com

PS4 LTD October 2016: 14,834,000
XB1 LTD October 2016: 13,335,000

PS5 LTD October 2023: 16,169,000
XBS LTD October 2023: 11,869,000

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Software charts

Great sales numbers for Spider-Man 2. Yay, Elden Ring still selling well. Minecraft flirting with dropping out of the charts.

Full Estimations for 2023

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
Jan-23	430,000	200,000	280,000
Feb-23	560,000	240,000	290,000
Mar-23	660,000	280,000	340,000
Apr-23	360,000	180,000	420,000
May-23	270,000	160,000	450,000
Jun-23	430,000	240,000	350,000
Jul-23	270,000	160,000	240,000
Aug-23	360,000	210,000	200,000
Sep-23	480,000	300,000	200,000
Oct -23	320,000	200,000	210,000
YTD	4,150,000	2,170,000	2,980,000
LTD	16,050,000	11,870,000	42,390,000

Results for 2022 (NSW monthly numbers are Welfare's estimations but it's total is from NPD. PS5 and XBS monthly and total numbers are from NPD)

Month	PS5	XBS	NSW
Jan-22	369,000	307,000	270,000
Feb-22	128,000	261,000	410,000
Mar-22	282,000	489,000	540,000
Apr-22	234,000	267,000	365,000
May-22	119,000	177,000	270,000
Jun-22	277,000	260,000	385,000
Jul-22	301,000	147,000	310,000
Aug-22	341,000	251,000	295,000
Sep-22	494,00	288,000	325,000
Oct-22	456,000	261,000	250,000
Nov-22	1,328,000	730,000	920,000
Dec-22	1,331,000	942,000	1,490,000
Total	5,660,000	4,480,000	5,830,000

If the numbers are roughly correct then YoY for Oct.:

• PS5: down ~29.8%
  • And that's even with Spider-Man 2 doing exceptionally well
• XBS: down ~30.5%
• NSW: down ~19.0%

Going into the Holiday season that's a little concerning. Will be interesting to see how they perform through the Holidays.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shortbread]

Going into the Holiday season that's a little concerning. Will be interesting to see how they perform through the Holidays.

Regards,
SB

Not really. Typically, during the 3rd year of the console(s) lifecycle, especially around October, sales often decline from the prior period (e.g., Oct-2015 275k PS4 units were sold and Oct-2016 235k PS4 units were sold). This is mostly contributed to consoles being more accessible or available during the 3rd year of their lifecycle, which allows consumers to wait for better deals during the latter two months (i.e., Black Friday, Cyber Monday, etc.). Since PS5/XBX were severely supply constrained last year, the luxury of waiting for November/December deals weren't really there and you ran the risk of not owning one (especially, if you could have grabbed one during the prior month).

Anyhow, I would think Sony is quite pleased with PS5 being +9% ahead of PS4 sales in North America when launch aligned. Switch unit sales decline are expected. Series consoles sales... well...

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1724818788674334855

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724819019738538156

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Really surprising to see XBS down -11% compared to XBO, particularly given the XBO's cluster*** launch and XBS have a budget-friendly option.

 

[Shortbread]

Really surprising to see XBS down -11% compared to XBO, particularly given the XBO's cluster*** launch and XBS have a budget-friendly option.

Looking at an aligned comparative period, it looks like Sony/PS5 has (have) successfully pealed away 2.8M gamers from the XBO userbase. Or, PS4 users are simply purchasing PS5 at a higher rate, while more XBO users have simply moved over to the PC because of Game Pass (essentially, having no reason to purchase a Series console).

LTD (After 36 months)

PS4 ~14.83m
XBO ~13.33m
Difference of 1.5M in PS4 favor.

PS5 ~16.16m
XBS ~11.86 m
Difference of 4.3M in PS5 favor.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

...while more XBO users have simply moved over to the PC because of Game Pass (essentially, having no reason to purchase a Series console).

I wonder if this is a thing.

The last time I looked at the GamePass library on PC, there was far less appealing titles (to me!) than on Xbox, and along with the lack of mods for GamePass games on PC and it being generally easier to to find games cheaper on PC, e.g. Steam sales, CDKey-like sites, I wonder how many Xbox GamePass users would find GamePass on PC attractive if that meant not having an Xbox and the streaming not being quite good enough (according to Richard at Digital Foundry).

 

[Shortbread]

I wonder if this is a thing.

The last time I looked at the GamePass library on PC, there was far less appealing titles (to me!) than on Xbox, and along with the lack of mods for GamePass games on PC and it being generally easier to to find games cheaper on PC, e.g. Steam sales, CDKey-like sites, I wonder how many Xbox GamePass users would find GamePass on PC attractive if that meant not having an Xbox and the streaming not being quite good enough (according to Richard at Digital Foundry).

I have no hard evidence, other than hearing from family and friends (XB gamers), and reading gaming boards, that many of them simply purchased GP for their PC and saved money in the process on not purchasing a next-generation system (in this case, a Series console). And having day-1 first party titles on both platforms made the choice even easier.

 

[iroboto]

I have no hard evidence, other than hearing from family and friends (XB gamers), and reading gaming boards, that many of them simply purchased GP for their PC and saved money in the process on not purchasing a next-generation system (in this case, a Series console). And having day-1 first party titles on both platforms made the choice even easier.

Easiest decision I had to make. With SSD marketing put behind, the idea that PC couldn’t play console games because of IO, ensured PC as the ultimate piece of hardware. If you’re willing to wait (and invest), you’ll get access to all the game libraries on a singular device.

 

[eastmen]

And thanks to the leaks, we know the raito of Series S : Series X sales is similar to what Sony reported initially for PS4 : PS4 Pro. For every higher tier console sold, three cheaper variants were sold.

Hardly surprising that Microsoft have no interest in mid-cycle 'Pro' model.

and on top of that , Sony had to increase the price of the "slim" ps5. That suggests that a ps5 pro would come out between 500/600 usd.

I am really interesting to see what pricing moves ms makes for the holiday. I haven't seen anything pop up so far, however a lot of things like amazon/ woot sales are announced hours before.

 

[chris1515]

Easiest decision I had to make. With SSD marketing put behind, the idea that PC couldn’t play console games because of IO, ensured PC as the ultimate piece of hardware. If you’re willing to wait (and invest), you’ll get access to all the game libraries on a singular device.

PC would have the edge because PC have faster CPU, GPU and SSD. It was not ideal before Direct Storage but PC would have been ok. Because without Direct Storage a dev can optimize for SSD too. It would be not as efficient but enough to go against console.