All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2018 Edition]

[BRiT]

I don't understand the mentality of people thinking Q1 or Q2 is a bad launch window...I guess the only difference here is that Switch launched into a hand-held and Nintendo home-console hungry audience.

That depends on how early the launch window is set. If the project started with a November timeframe launch in mind but then shifts to a March/April launch, which scenario happened:

1. The project is given 4 months more for being ready
2. The project is given 8 months less for being ready

Lets be honest, scenario 2 will never ever happen, as theres too much that simply wont work and be roadblocks.
Lets be honest, scenario 1 only happens if there are total fuckups and major roadblocks. It has downsides as it misses out on major holiday sales.

So the mindset of launching in Q1 has to be set from project start, which for some non-technical reason never seems to happen.

 

[goonergaz]

That depends on how early the launch window is set. If the project started with a November timeframe launch in mind but then shifts to a March/April launch, which scenario happened:

1. The project is given 4 months more for being ready
2. The project is given 8 months less for being ready

Lets be honest, scenario 2 will never ever happen, as theres too much that simply wont work and be roadblocks.
Lets be honest, scenario 1 only happens if there are total fups and major roadblocks. It has downsides as it misses out on major holiday sales.

So the mindset of launching in Q1 has to be set from project start, which for some non-technical reason never seems to happen.

So all Q1/2 launches were not planned? I mean, if the general school of thought is the opposition launches in Q4 then what better way to try and get a leg up than a ~6 month head start?

 

[BRiT]

So all Q1/2 launches were not planned? I mean, if the general school of thought is the opposition launches in Q4 then what better way to try and get a leg up than a ~6 month head start?

The Nintendo Switch Q1 launch was the result of delays.

I dont remember other launches for Q1 for the US recently. If there were staggered launches for Sony Playstation 1 or 2 or 3, it was obviously planned but that had more to do with shipping logistics as Sony launched earlier and to obviously huge market consumer numbers in Japan.

Just getting the items from Japan to the US takes a month using cargo boats. You would only ever use jets to ship if you absolutely need emergancy volumn as the cost increase is dramatic and the shipping volumn is so much less. (This info was taken from talks with Sony and MS about console launches that I cant seem to find now)

 

[goonergaz]

The Nintendo Switch Q1 launch was the result of delays.

I dont remember other launches for Q1 for the US recently. If there were staggered launches for Sony Playstation 1 or 2 or 3, it was obviously planned but that had more to do with shipping logistics as Sony launched earlier and to obviously huge market consumer numbers in Japan.

Just getting the items from Japan to the US takes a month using cargo boats. You would only ever use jets to ship if you absolutely need emergancy volumn as the cost increase is dramatic and the shipping volumn is so much less. (This info was taken from talks with Sony and MS about console launches that I cant seem to find now)

Was PS3 delayed by a whole year? I know other consoles have launched outside the Q4 window, it's just more recently the norm has been Q4. I didn't realise Switch was delayed.

Even so, it shows a console can launch Q1 and be a success!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

PS3 was delayed a very long time. Pretty sure it was a year for the EU at least.

 

[goonergaz]

PS3 was delayed a very long time. Pretty sure it was a year for the EU at least.

Yeah, I seem to recall big delays for PS3

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I'm not so sure...I mean, in that 21 months it only had 1 December vs PS4 having 2 Decembers. To put it another way, after 21 months Switch includes November after 22 months December, then Jan and Feb right. PS4 is July, August, September and October - even if you add the 25th Month that's November (but Nintendo had December).

Does that make sense!?

Edit - I did some projections, indeed it'll be month 26 when Sony get back ahead...but that will be because it'll have had 3 Decembers (obviously Switch sales based on last year);

I should have written PS4 overtakes it again in months 25-26, a brainfart had me thinking that 24th includes November already.

This topic has a bit of variables, some of which are hard to quantify in a "scientific" manner, but it is my opinion that PS4 sales have been stronger than Switch's and the reason for the best selling title changing hands is due to the misaligned launch months.

In practice the extra December for the PS4 doesn't really come into play..., because it was during the launch period. Right now these consoles and Xbox seem to do 1M in launch month and at least 2M in November and December combined. I think PS4 had its second worst November+December in 2o13, during the launch. Supply issues played a big factor there, but you lose something when launching in the holiday season, they just don't stack up as powerfully as having the 3 months separate. Nintendo on the other hand managed to have a big launch month in March and good holiday season as well, totaling 3 extraordinary big months for the year. PS4 only ever has had 2 huge months during a year. The March launch for the Switch is the only special factor here. That one "extra" month is what is largely carrying the Switch here, although it's fair to point out again that the overall sales need to be good for that to be possible.

Your table has PS4 selling 20k units in Oct15? I know it's a big ask, but is it possible to have a table like that from month 1 onwards? Are the numbers available? It would be great to see. It would highlight the issue well imo.

 

[goonergaz]

I should have written PS4 overtakes it again in months 25-26, a brainfart had me thinking that 24th includes November already.

This topic has a bit of variables, some of which are hard to quantify in a "scientific" manner, but it is my opinion that PS4 sales have been stronger than Switch's and the reason for the best selling title changing hands is due to the misaligned launch months.

In practice the extra December for the PS4 doesn't really come into play..., because it was during the launch period. Right now these consoles and Xbox seem to do 1M in launch month and at least 2M in November and December combined. I think PS4 had its second worst November+December in 2o13, during the launch. Supply issues played a big factor there, but you lose something when launching in the holiday season, they just don't stack up as powerfully as having the 3 months separate. Nintendo on the other hand managed to have a big launch month in March and good holiday season as well, totaling 3 extraordinary big months for the year. PS4 only ever has had 2 huge months during a year. The March launch for the Switch is the only special factor here. That one "extra" month is what is largely carrying the Switch here, although it's fair to point out again that the overall sales need to be good for that to be possible.

Your table has PS4 selling 20k units in Oct15? I know it's a big ask, but is it possible to have a table like that from month 1 onwards? Are the numbers available? It would be great to see. It would highlight the issue well imo.

I think it's an error on my part (well obviously!) - the 20k...it's all here;

https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/...by-revenue-hardware-now-software-later.58319/

PS4 did 2m in 2013 & 2014 Nov and Decembers. Regardless of the launch windows we know that Switch was also supply constrained at launch.

Month 24 has PS4 @ 9.29, 25 @ 10.83 and 26 @ 12.41, so they are neck and neck at month 25 assuming Switch sales are flat-lined over the next 5 NPDs...which I suspect it won't be.

Don't get me wrong, I think there's reason other than 'Switch is better' that it's doing so well...but I already get beaten up for my opinion so I don't want to get beaten up some more

 

[goonergaz]

I updated and improved my previous table, if sales for Switch stay the same YoY then in 1 years time it will increase from a 250k advantage to a 670k advantage;

 

[Goodtwin]

The Nintendo Switch Q1 launch was the result of delays.

I dont remember other launches for Q1 for the US recently. If there were staggered launches for Sony Playstation 1 or 2 or 3, it was obviously planned but that had more to do with shipping logistics as Sony launched earlier and to obviously huge market consumer numbers in Japan.

Just getting the items from Japan to the US takes a month using cargo boats. You would only ever use jets to ship if you absolutely need emergancy volumn as the cost increase is dramatic and the shipping volumn is so much less. (This info was taken from talks with Sony and MS about console launches that I cant seem to find now)

Do you have a source for this? I know a lot of people have speculated that the Switch launch was delayed because Zelda BoTW needed more time, but I have never seen an actual source confirm or deny this. Just speculation, even if a ton of people believe it to be likely, it shouldn't be treated as fact unless a reliable source can back it up.

 

[zed]

I dont remember other launches for Q1 for the US recently.

3DS launched in march 2011, PSP launched march 2005 so definitely not unheard of

 

[BRiT]

3DS launched in march 2011, PSP launched march 2005 so definitely not unheard of

Uhm, sort of ... it seems Sony launches in Q4 with staggered release for other territories later.

I hadn't followed handhelds, but here's more details (from Wiki) for handhelds:

The system (PSP) was released in Japan on December 12, 2004, in North America on March 24, 2005, and in the PAL region on September 1, 2005.

The PSP line was succeeded by the PlayStation Vita, released in December 2011 in Japan, and in February 2012 worldwide.

The device (DS) went on sale in North America on November 21, 2004. It was set to release on December 2, 2004 in Japan (¥15000);[20] on February 24, 2005 in Australia ($199.95);[21] and on March 11, 2005 in Europe (£99.99/€149.99).[22]

The Nintendo 3DS was first released in Japan on February 26, 2011, and worldwide beginning in March 2011. Less than six months later on July 28, 2011, Nintendo announced a significant price reduction from US$249 to US$169 amid disappointing launch sales

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I updated and improved my previous table, if sales for Switch stay the same YoY then in 1 years time it will increase from a 250k advantage to a 670k advantage;

Thanks for the tables, they are nice to see

However an October curse seems to have popped up again
You have the Switch having 1M sales in Oct. I think I know why this happened.

https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/npd-october-2018-results.60970/

PS4: 1.34
Switch: 1
Xbox One: 0.83
3DS：0.26

That's not 1 Million for Switch, but Switch is normalized to one and how the others did relatively to it.

PS4: 332K - 348K
NSW: 260K
XB1: 213K - 216K

Those were the actual numbers for October 18, so if we extrapolate that 260K for the next year, we will go from the Switch having a 250k advantage to PS4 having a 70k advantage.

 

[goonergaz]

Thanks for the tables, they are nice to see

However an October curse seems to have popped up again
You have the Switch having 1M sales in Oct. I think I know why this happened.

https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/npd-october-2018-results.60970/



That's not 1 Million for Switch, but Switch is normalized to one and how the others did relatively to it.



Those were the actual numbers for October 18, so if we extrapolate that 260K for the next year, we will go from the Switch having a 250k advantage to PS4 having a 70k advantage.

Good spot, I must admit I was thinking it was a high number for October but was I read PS4 as 1.3m I didn't flinch...just thought it was odd.

We will have to see how it plays out, at least now we have a table to see how it tracks against - I suspect it will improve YoY (especially December) but it'll be tight either way.

 

[goonergaz]

Ok, final table with projection, if I have the time I will update this each month but if anyone is interested I'm happy to email the file, just PM me your email address

Worth adding, for a straight comparison the first whole year of sales Jan to Dec for each console was 5.37m to Switch and 5.69m for PS4...so it does indeed look like it's actually behind PS4 (although to be fair the first year of PS4 was off the back of launch whereas for Switch it was ~9mths after launch.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Kaspersky reports the file contains a virus or malware. May not have been Kaspersky - no report - but Firefox or Excel. I got a warning when I tried to open it.

 

[goonergaz]

weird, maybe the hosting site isn't great? will remove link - happy to email to anyone who PMs me their email address (just to confirm I have scanned the file, it's fine!)

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I have to say that in NA neither of these consoles is a "sales monster". Both are doing good, but it would be nice to see how they are doing now against the PS2, Wii and even the X360. I think PS4 will have its hands full with the X360, which had a monster 5th and 6th years. Previous gens had more clear cut winners, at least in Sony vs MS comparisons. This time the battle in NA is relatively even and Switch is pulling good numbers as well. The three aforementioned older consoles did seem to have even stronger stints though. X360 started slower, but finished strong, Wii the opposite. PS2 was very strong for a long time.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

How can Switch not be a sales monster if it's reportedly the fastest ever selling console over 21 months??

 

[iroboto]

weird, maybe the hosting site isn't great? will remove link - happy to email to anyone who PMs me their email address (just to confirm I have scanned the file, it's fine!)

Import to google docs and make it public!

Or alternatively make another MS account and import your file to one drive and make it public. Office 365 should let us directly see it.