No. Your surprise is unsurprising.
All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2017 Edition]
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Complaining about added costs doesn't mean one won't pay. If you want to game online on PS4, you have to (grudgingly) pay. Simples. Anyone got any idea what the Live adoption rate for XB1 is?
They could be wrong but we don't have better data. But something between 32/35 millions sounds reasonable. Far more reasonable than 40 millions...
Not for free to play games, like Fortnite or Warframe.
Very impressive sale results [again] from Sony. Their 2018 software schedule is once again stellar, but what surprise me is that we did not get permanent pricedrop this last holiday season. Slim is still officially $300€ and Pro is still $400€. Sony is obviously not feeling the pressure from MS and Nintendo, and PS4 is still very desirable.
Epic is dominating the PSN with their F2P Fortnite Battle Royale, which does not require PS+ for online play. This last weekend:
The vast majority of PS4s were bought before Fortnite was a thing. The vast majority of online games require PS+. There's no way millions of PS4 owners are avoiding paying PS+ yet enjoying online games thanks to F2P options. The lack of PS+ subscribers tells us very clearly that lots and lots of console gamers aren't interested in online gaming on their PS4.
It'd be interesting to know how XBL compares to see if there's a difference in demographics or if this is a universal aspect to gaming, which is important for developers to know how significant online is. As I understand it, online was a forced component for Uncharted, but if most players of the game didn't care for the online component, it was perhaps a waste of resources.
More than 30 millions on the PS4 alone is still a decent number... i mean, there is a real market. It's why most AAA tend to have both : solo campaign + online gaming.
I'd be curious too but that is more of a comparison of populations, or to a degree services; I suspect the number of active players playing online games is more of a indicator of online presence for the community.
What I'm really interested in is the number of subscriptions the Game Pass has gotten since its release, is Game Pass a failure or a success?
djskribbles
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Also keep in mind that there are probably several people that own multiple systems in a single household and share PS+ accounts.
D
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Free multiplayer for free-to-play games on PS4 was a known quantity before launch, evidenced by Warframe and War Thunder.
I know. Unless you believe there are millions of people who play only free online games and shun COD and FIFA and Destiny and DriveClub, it doesn't change the observation.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
AFAIK, FFXIV doesn't require PS+ either for online play. Also an argument can be made that many players want/have their console connected to the internet but do not play multiplayer as all they are interested in is single player experiences.
For example, I know many people (myself included) that buy COD for the single player and never touch the multiplayer. Hence, we wouldn't need PS+/XBL.
Regards,
SB
For example, I know many people (myself included) that buy COD for the single player and never touch the multiplayer. Hence, we wouldn't need PS+/XBL.
Regards,
SB
It's not data though. Not that number, anyway. It was their forecast made many months ago.
My sell through guesstimate (and of course that's all it is) for Xbox at the end of 2017 is ~38 million (40 million is shipped, and some million will be in the channel).
Most people like to lowball xbox so they pick 30-35 million Which isn't that far from my estimate anyway). Since there are no worldwide xbox sales numbers nobody knows, but I would certainly wager on my number being closer vs those lower numbers. But, nobody has any proof so it's just talk.
I love the EA numbers and cant wait for an update.
BTW I found a new lightly interesting platforms number (somewhat akin to BF1 stats and the like). https://trials.report/ If you go here you can click the platform icons and see how many played last week Trials (Fri-Mon event) on each platform. It's ~87k PS4, ~48k Xbox, ~15k PC last week.
So PS4 close to 2:1 on Xbox, and PC way behind. If those numbers are accurate of course. And BTW Trials participation is down markedly from Destiny 1.
I seem to recall Destiny 1 being surprisingly closer to 1:1 between Xbox /PS. So perhaps that last gen data was faulty, limited, misremembered, PS has made big gains, all the above.
Xbox has more competition in the competitive MP space. Destiny has to compete against the other 3rd parties + H5 , Gears, and PUBG.
Destiny is no longer the only trick in town and there are many more options available.
Destiny has never been the only trick in town on either platform; COD, BF, Battlefront, Madden, Rocket League, FIFA, Fortnite, etc. the list goes on and on. Cross-platform MP games probably make up 98% of the number of hours of online gaming. Don't expect Gears has any substantial players and PUBG just came out so I'm not sure how it hurt Destiny 2 which is mostly a different demographic anyhow. The bottom line is D1 players, lead by streamer and YTers, switched from XB to PS4 and that carried over to D2.
he's referring to T09 though. Not just general play.
djskribbles
Legend
Are we lowballing, or you just over-estimating?
You've always estimated higher than everyone else's estimations, from people actually in the industry, and people who actually have sales data that none of us have access to.
Whereas your estimations are extrapolated from US sales alone, using what methods exactly? The US sales that we actually have aren't even complete, and a large chunk of them are approximations.
It's so blatantly clear whose numbers are more credible.
I remember you estimated XB1 sell-through numbers to be higher than ZhugeEx's estimated sell-in numbers, when ZhugeEx has access to more sales data than any of us here.
38M would be a reasonable guess for sell-in numbers, but I'd wager that sell-through numbers are considerably lower than that, probably at least 2-3M lower.
While my methods of extrapolating sales data is also not accurate, at least it's based on previous sales data.
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http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2018-01-12-revealed-the-best-selling-uk-boxed-games-of-2017
Top 100 physical sales UK
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