All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2017 Edition]
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A 5:3 ratio is a 62.5% to 37.5% ratio...
For the moment, the ratio was worse during this year. Before it was 3:2 ratio.
It it continues like this the ratio advantage of PS4 will continue to progress...
To keep sales up. Yea price must continue to drop. It’s the only way really. When prices gets so low, everyone could own one of each without much thought to the costs.
Yeah, business wise it makes sense. I’m just wondering if they can cost reduce the physical box enough soon enough for that to keep sales soaring for either system.
I thought I'd check in with PS4 WW:NPD sales ratio again since Sony gave us another number. Apparently on Dec 3 they said they'd sold 70.6 million PS4's. https://www.playstation.com/en-us/c...n-4-sales-surpass-70-million-units-worldwide/
Now that November NPD is in I have PS4 at 21,841k in US through November. So 70.6/21.841=~3.2 ratio.
So yep, these ratios established last gen continue to hold almost exactly. On Nov 6 2103 Sony announced 80 million PS3's sold (sell in). http://us.playstation.com/corporate...3-sales-reach-80-million-units-worldwide.html At that point I had them at 24,848k NPD sales. Which is...3.22 ratio WW:NPD.
One caveat though is now Sony sales PR says "sold to consumers" where in 2013 they said "sell in". So there will be a difference in there in favor of PS4 (80 million "sold in" means something less than 80 million sold to consumers) although it should not be too large. Apples to apples the PS3 sold to consumer ratio might have been 3.0-3.1 (if we assumed VERY conservatively 80 million sold in meant 75 million sold to consumer as of 2013 PS3 PR, that would be roughly 3:1).
Another caveat is that NPD sales leaks have become so janky over the years they are estimates with a fair amount of error.
If Microsoft's 2:1 shipped WW:Sold NPD ratio continues to hold (almost certainly given how well these ratios hold up in all testable cases) they are at 18,766k NPD after Nov 2017. So they would be around 37.5 "sold in" AKA shipped WW through November. December (should be another 1-1.5 million sold NPD) will push that to at least around 40 million sold in WW.
I even have an idea that since Playstations WW:NPD ration appears to have crept up ever so slightly, Xbox's might be doing the same (I have another small bit of info for this I wont get into). Since after all third world markets like South America, Russia, and China may be growing a bit. But, given the slop in any of these estimates they probably aren't precise enough to bother drawing conclusions like that.
Now that November NPD is in I have PS4 at 21,841k in US through November. So 70.6/21.841=~3.2 ratio.
So yep, these ratios established last gen continue to hold almost exactly. On Nov 6 2103 Sony announced 80 million PS3's sold (sell in). http://us.playstation.com/corporate...3-sales-reach-80-million-units-worldwide.html At that point I had them at 24,848k NPD sales. Which is...3.22 ratio WW:NPD.
One caveat though is now Sony sales PR says "sold to consumers" where in 2013 they said "sell in". So there will be a difference in there in favor of PS4 (80 million "sold in" means something less than 80 million sold to consumers) although it should not be too large. Apples to apples the PS3 sold to consumer ratio might have been 3.0-3.1 (if we assumed VERY conservatively 80 million sold in meant 75 million sold to consumer as of 2013 PS3 PR, that would be roughly 3:1).
Another caveat is that NPD sales leaks have become so janky over the years they are estimates with a fair amount of error.
If Microsoft's 2:1 shipped WW:Sold NPD ratio continues to hold (almost certainly given how well these ratios hold up in all testable cases) they are at 18,766k NPD after Nov 2017. So they would be around 37.5 "sold in" AKA shipped WW through November. December (should be another 1-1.5 million sold NPD) will push that to at least around 40 million sold in WW.
I even have an idea that since Playstations WW:NPD ration appears to have crept up ever so slightly, Xbox's might be doing the same (I have another small bit of info for this I wont get into). Since after all third world markets like South America, Russia, and China may be growing a bit. But, given the slop in any of these estimates they probably aren't precise enough to bother drawing conclusions like that.
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djskribbles
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If they sold 18.766M in the US, and I go with my usual 55-60 / 40-45 US/ROTW sold-through split, that would be 31.3 - 34.1M XB1s sold, a little under half of Sony's reported 70.6M sold-through.
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There are always special deals for both around $40 or so in the US. And if you're willing to do some Bing Rewards you can get XBL for $29 equivalent, or use it towards Amazon Gift cards for $50 equivalent to redeem for PSN.
Benji the guy on Era who probably has chain wide sales info for a major chain, has basically been saying Switch is going to win December easily. Combine that with Amazon where Switch is dominating too for Dec.
I know anecdotally, I bought my nephew a Switch in Dec too.
https://www.resetera.com/posts/2496439/
I know anecdotally, I bought my nephew a Switch in Dec too.
https://www.resetera.com/posts/2496439/
What make you think that those ratios don't change ?
According to this chart, the Xbox One should be above the PS4 in the USA today. Unless we assume that during some periods Xbox One sales were really low at the same time in the USA/rest of the world or inversely for PS4 sales. It's the only way not to break a hypothetic ratio.
Your supposed ratios between the USA/rest of the world aren't a strict rule.
Most other sources i've read on the subject put the worlwide sales at a 2:1 ratio in favor of the PS4 (at least).
Your estimation of 40m seems to be clearly too high.
Also, it's a 1:1 ratio USA/rest of the world for the Xbox One... 40 millions with a 2:1 ratio = 26 millions sales in the USA.
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They never have in a major way.
Look we dont have sales numbers outside the USA so it's a pointless debate. You believe what you want and I'll believe what I think is reasonable.
It is somewhere close to 2:1, yes. If I estimated Xbox at ~40m sold in this is at end of Dec. If Ps4 was at 70.6 sold to consumers at beginning of Dec. Then yes it's 2:1 or thereabouts apples to apples end of Dec most likely. If PS4 sells 1.5 in USA Dec, X~3 is another 4.5 WW, so it'd be ~75.1. If Xbox is ~40m sold in end Dec, that's probably 37 or 38m sold to consumer. 2:1.
Not understanding what point you're trying to make here at all.
But yes, for a quarter the ratios can vary a ton. Over the long term is where those rough ratios tend to hold up.
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Sure but we seem to have some data :
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-01-29-did-eas-cfo-reveal-the-install-base-for-xbox-one
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...s4-xbox-one-sales-reach-105-million-end-2017/
http://ftp.xbox360achievements.org/...fetime-Sales-By-The-End-Of-2016---Report.html
I made a mistake anyway. The chart is only about the USA while i thought it was worldwide.
It's even better : https://www.cnet.com/news/microsoft-xbox-one-totals-5-million-units-sold-to-retailers-worldwide/
The PS4 should be over 9 millions at the same period...
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djskribbles
Legend
Game publisher forcasts and predictions a year or two ago had the US/RoTW ratio at around 58/42 for XB1, so that's what I continue to go by.
Curiously that would put XB1 sell-through figures to be around the same as what VGChartz is reporting, slightly less than half of PS4.
Curiously that would put XB1 sell-through figures to be around the same as what VGChartz is reporting, slightly less than half of PS4.
These are somewhat interesting but I always ask, what's their source? I dont care what any analyst says unless they cite sources and the only sources that matter are NPD/GFK/Media Create. They typically don't (if ever?).
The EA estimates you point our are somewhat interesting fodder too, but for example pretty much directly contradict themselves so they cant be accurate. They state 79m consoles at end of 16. Since PS had announce 53m that puts Xbox at 26m. EA says they expect 105m at end of 17. Since PS4 announced 70m already at end of Nov, by end of Dec they will be over 75m. That leaves 30m for Xbox. Meaning Xbox only sold 4m in a year, but they sold more than that in USA alone (or will have after Dec). I have Xbox at ~2.9m for 2017 NPD pending Dec sales, which should be at least a million conservatively (1.5 million December 2016).
It's a good thing for me the EA estimates contradicted, but I wouldn't have accepted them anyway. They dont have a ton of precision IMO. Analysts I reject out of hand unless they can provide the receipts.jpeg, and none ever do. I do find the EA estimates good discussion fodder and they haven't been provably wrong (or right!) in the past IIRC,, lets see what they say when/if they update.
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I was looking at my Xbox One vs Xbox 360 NPD data. A strong November 2017 gain puts Xbox One back in the lead gen over gen by close to 1.5 million. However with each passing month we get increasing clarity, and it seems now likely Xbox 360 will surpass One in December 2010/2018/year 5 or thereabouts.
Further, 360 had some massive early 2011 months (for example, 535k in February 2011), that if 2010 doesn't do it, should finish the job. Xbox One would have to see a massive sales increase in the coming year due to Xbox X to stave off the inevitable at this point.
To recap, the problem for One is X360 really had a massive year 5 and 6 in 2010/11. Perhaps due to Kinect but whatever the case.
I suppose selling ahead of Xbox 360 for 5 years isn't terrible. However, 360 ended up over 40 million and we're currently at about the 20 million mark, so only halfway. But, as well, 360 lasted 8 years, will One last that long? Xbox 360 will probably take the lead roughly around the 25 million mark.
Xbox is still strong in the USA, 25 million is a strong result for a USA console, and it wont end just at 25 million.
Further, 360 had some massive early 2011 months (for example, 535k in February 2011), that if 2010 doesn't do it, should finish the job. Xbox One would have to see a massive sales increase in the coming year due to Xbox X to stave off the inevitable at this point.
To recap, the problem for One is X360 really had a massive year 5 and 6 in 2010/11. Perhaps due to Kinect but whatever the case.
I suppose selling ahead of Xbox 360 for 5 years isn't terrible. However, 360 ended up over 40 million and we're currently at about the 20 million mark, so only halfway. But, as well, 360 lasted 8 years, will One last that long? Xbox 360 will probably take the lead roughly around the 25 million mark.
Xbox is still strong in the USA, 25 million is a strong result for a USA console, and it wont end just at 25 million.
Could you show those NPD data ?
The problem is that with each console sold in USA, MS is not even managing to sell one more outside of the US.
On the other hand, for each PS4 sold in USA, Sony manages to sell two more outside of the US.
PS4 being tied with Xbone [or loosing a month or two] in the US means almost nothing to Sony when entire worldwide picture is taken into consideration. PS4's lead continue to grow, and they are market leader in EVERY territory.
This is true. Xbox sells about one worldwide for every one in the USA. Sony sells about 2 worldwide for every one in the USA. Always been the case. So when Sony is winning in the USA even, as they are this generation, one can see how strong they are.
However, ask yourself why if Xbox is doing so bad every major third party game is still announced for it? When that stops, it's a different discussion. However that's not even a consideration currently. There are people who imply Xbox is just selling terribly, horribly, zero. However if that was true, every major third party game I can think of except SFV (which is also on Windows anyway) wouldn't be on Xbox also. And of course a few more niche Japanese centric games like Nier Automata, Persona.
Also it's a distinction that the markets Xbox does best on (USA/UK) are going to be the most lucrative and profitable per customer with higher digital uptake. The farther you get into smaller European countries that are overwhelmingly dominated by Playstation like Spain and Portugal, sales per capita decrease and per consumer revenue likely also decreases, these are less connected and less wealthy. Japan is sort of it's own ecosystem and we dont have a lot of insight into other world markets like South America, the Far East, The Middle East, Russia etc.
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