All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2017 Edition]

[DrJay24]

8 Gran Turismo Sport Sony/Polyphony

Wow!

 

[Recop]

Most people like to lowball xbox so they pick 30-35 million Which isn't that far from my estimate anyway).

You're the only one putting the Xbox One that high... the perfect 2:1 ratio appeared long time ago and the PS4 continues to sell much better than the Xbox One. So, fallowing this trend, the Xbox one should be under the 2:1 ratio.

38+38 = 76 > 73

35+35= 70 < 73

The maximum most reasonable estimate for the Xbox One is 35 millions and the lowest one is 32 millions.

BTW I found a new lightly interesting platforms number (somewhat akin to BF1 stats and the like). https://trials.report/ If you go here you can click the platform icons and see how many played last week Trials (Fri-Mon event) on each platform. It's ~87k PS4, ~48k Xbox, ~15k PC last week.

And ?

This week PS4 is over 45k and Xbox one is 21k...

 

[Rangers]

You're the only one putting the Xbox One that high... the perfect 2:1 ratio appeared long time ago and the PS4 continues to sell much better than the Xbox One. So, fallowing this trend, the Xbox one should be under the 2:1 ratio.

38+38 = 76 > 73

35+35= 70 < 73

The maximum most reasonable estimate for the Xbox One is 35 millions and the lowest one is 32 millions.

Where is evidence for 2:1 ratio either? Yes it seems to be true and I agree that it's basically true worldwide, but it's not like it has any statistical validity. It's not like a law of nature that for every 1 Xbox that passes the sales counter, exactly 2 PS4's must.

Anyways if PS4 is 73.6, almost 74 million, it holds well with 38 million Xbox's IMO because it's very nearly 2:1. About 1.94: 1. Although again that's just something we kind of made up.

People saying 30-35 million dont really have any (exact) evidence that I see, except that almost universally they do not care for Xbox. At least mine is based on something.

Again we saw yet again recently these ratios hold well. I was able to predict Ps4 probably had a lackluster December NPD because of the roughly 3:1 ratio (it's actually been about 3.2:1 this gen, which holds well historically too, ps3 often sat around 3.2:1) and the fact we knew they sold ~3m WW in Dec by Sony's own figures.

ALTHOUGH for a short time period I would never say to put much stock in the ratios, because there's a lot of slop in shipping channels etc, and over a quarter the ratio can vary a lot.

I'd take my number anytime. I'm almost 100% convinced it'd be closer to correct.

This week PS4 is over 45k and Xbox one is 21k...

51k-26k now.

 

[djskribbles]

Where is evidence for 2:1 ratio either? Yes it seems to be true and I agree that it's basically true worldwide, but it's not like it has any statistical validity. It's not like a law of nature that for every 1 Xbox that passes the sales counter, exactly 2 PS4's must.

Anyways if PS4 is 73.6, almost 74 million, it holds well with 38 million Xbox's IMO because it's very nearly 2:1. About 1.94: 1. Although again that's just something we kind of made up.

People saying 30-35 million dont really have any (exact) evidence that I see, except that almost universally they do not care for Xbox. At least mine is based on something.

Again we saw yet again recently these ratios hold well. I was able to predict Ps4 probably had a lackluster December NPD because of the roughly 3:1 ratio (it's actually been about 3.2:1 this gen, which holds well historically too, ps3 often sat around 3.2:1) and the fact we knew they sold ~3m WW in Dec by Sony's own figures.

ALTHOUGH for a short time period I would never say to put much stock in the ratios, because there's a lot of slop in shipping channels etc, and over a quarter the ratio can vary a lot.

I'd take my number anytime. I'm almost 100% convinced it'd be closer to correct.



51k-26k now.

What is it based on? Software revenue splits, and player base splits from shooters like BF and Destiny? That is literally nothing.

My method of extrapolating sales is from real sales data. Sure it's dated sales data, but my numbers more or less match up with estimations as new as January 2017, by ZhugeEx and Superdata. I doubt XB1 US/RoTW sales splits would change much.

Literally every estimation I've seen from you has been higher than industry estimations. Not by a lot, but consistently higher. Clearly your methods of extrapolating sales data is off. Unless you truly feel that research groups, game makers and people with real sales data are lowballing and your numbers are more accurate somehow.

 

[bunge]

Media Create recently reported that both systems performed well for the first week of 2018, with the Nintendo Switch selling another 146,000 units, and the PlayStation 4 clearing out just over 91,000 units for the week.

That brings the total amount of Nintendo Switch systems sold to over 3.56 million in the Land of the Rising Sun, while both the PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 4 Pro continue to be big hits. Meanwhile, the Xbox One sold a measly 190 systems, and the Xbox One X was even more anemic, with nine systems sold. You read that correctly.

http://comicbook.com/2018/01/12/playstation-4-nintendo-switch-selling-well-in-2018/

 

[Recop]

Where is evidence for 2:1 ratio either? Yes it seems to be true and I agree that it's basically true worldwide, but it's not like it has any statistical validity. It's not like a law of nature that for every 1 Xbox that passes the sales counter, exactly 2 PS4's must.

Once again :

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-01-29-did-eas-cfo-reveal-the-install-base-for-xbox-one

https://www.superdataresearch.com/nintendo-switch-the-superdata-take/ : "The Nintendo Switch enters the console market at a time when Sony is dominating with an install base of almost 55 million, and 26 million for Microsoft’s Xbox One."

It's far from perfect, but do we have better sources ? The answer is no...

And the PS4 literally continues to crush the Xbox One... so, the gap should be even larger today.

I'd take my number anytime. I'm almost 100% convinced it'd be closer to correct.

And you're the only one putting the Xbox One that high as djskribbles already said... take any other neutral source, nobody says 38 millions. As simple as that.

51k-26k now.

And now 77k vs 33k... that means nothing... not to mention that japanese people don't play those kind of games. Also, FPS tend to sell better in the USA.

And early 2017, there were more than 4 millions PS4 sold in Japan : https://www.dualshockers.com/ps4-ce...ry-japan-sells-4-4-million-units-three-years/

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Once again :

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-01-29-did-eas-cfo-reveal-the-install-base-for-xbox-one

https://www.superdataresearch.com/nintendo-switch-the-superdata-take/ : "The Nintendo Switch enters the console market at a time when Sony is dominating with an install base of almost 55 million, and 26 million for Microsoft’s Xbox One."

That actually supports what Rangers has been saying. The EA report has it it as 1.89:1 in favor of PS4 while the second link is 2.12:1 in favor of PS4. They are estimates with an element of error. While 2:1 is close enough for napkin math, it's certainly not some hard proven number. 2:1 +/- 5-10% depending on what report you look at and what time frame you look at probably covers the general range of possibilities. It also may not remain in that range, it could either expand or contract depending on the performance of each console in the future.

Regards,
SB

 

[Recop]

That actually supports what Rangers has been saying. The EA report has it it as 1.89:1 in favor of PS4 while the second link is 2.12:1 in favor of PS4. They are estimates with an element of error. While 2:1 is close enough for napkin math, it's certainly not some hard proven number. 2:1 +/- 5-10% depending on what report you look at and what time frame you look at probably covers the general range of possibilities.

In the first link : "Microsoft, conveniently, decided to stop reporting on absolute numbers of consoles in the wild, instead shifting focus to the number of active LIVE or Windows 10 accounts. However, some analysis by Mary Jo Foley estimates that, of the 200 million live Windows 10 accounts, 18 million are Xbox Ones - a figure she says came from a trusted source"

So we have 2 sources with at least a 2:1 ratio...

Another source that seems to suggest that the ratio is higher than 2:1 for the PS4 : https://venturebeat.com/2017/03/16/sony-dominates-console-market-with-57-share-worldwide/

It also may not remain in that range, it could either expand or contract depending on the performance of each console in the future.

Everything suggests that the gap expands... the X is a niche product and won't change anything. Basically, MS sells either : a less powerful console with less games or a much more expensive console with less games...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Another source that seems to suggest that the ratio is higher than 2:1 for the PS4 : https://venturebeat.com/2017/03/16/sony-dominates-console-market-with-57-share-worldwide/

"The PS4 ended 2016 with an installed base of 53 million consoles sold to date, compared to 27.6 million for the Xbox One."​

That's a 1.92:1 ratio for install base. Revenue from games isn't 2x for PS4 either.

 

[Recop]

"The PS4 ended 2016 with an installed base of 53 million consoles sold to date, compared to 27.6 million for the Xbox One."

Lol i didn't see this part... my claim was only based on the market share

By the way, it's slightly more than 53 millions.

According to EA, it's 26 millions : http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...s4-xbox-one-sales-reach-105-million-end-2017/

Revenue from games isn't 2x for PS4 either.

Yes according to this sentence : "Sony dominated the game console hardware, software, and service market in 2016, capturing a total of 57 percent share, or $19.7 billion of spending by gamers, according to market researcher IHS Markit."

But it's a very bad source, let's see the orginal : https://technology.ihs.com/590493/s...le-market-with-57-share-of-world-market-value

 

[Shifty Geezer]

57% doesn't tell us the ratio versus XB1. XB1 could be the other 43% or only 10%.

But it's a very bad source, let's see the orginal : https://technology.ihs.com/590493/s...le-market-with-57-share-of-world-market-value

Every one of those graphs has a lower than 2:1 ratio Sony : MS.

 

[DieH@rd]

Revenue from games isn't 2x for PS4 either.

Ubisoft provides revenue breakdowns for each quarter, sometimes PS4 really gets 2x of Xbone

 

[Recop]

57% doesn't tell us the ratio versus XB1. XB1 could be the other 43% or only 10%.

Right. In fact, i saw 19,7 billion and i only watched the first graph quickly in the first source. Next time, i will read my sources more carefully.

Every one of those graphs has a lower than 2:1 ratio Sony : MS.

Right, and the first source is not good because they contradict themselves. They said 19,7 billion in 2016 and then 17,8.

Edit : 19,7 it's Sony and 17,8 it's only the PS4. So, once again, i didn't read correctly