What if the Wii outsells the PS2 in 7 years?

[Flux]

Seems to be going that way with how they are selling now. I mean I want one but they are always sold out. SSBB(sold it for me),TP(auto-buy),MP3,Fire Emblem,SMG(auto-buy),No more heroes,Guilty Gear AC,Mario Kart(auto-buy),Wii sports are the games I want.



Do you think within 5-7 years the wii will outsell the PS2?

Do you think within 5-7 years the DS will outsell the PS2?(I know unfair comparison)

 

[Dominik D]

Will it outsell? Probably, hopefully yes. What if? Well, it would be a clear indication that gaming market expands. Which is a great news for everyone.

 

[assen]

The DS will almost certainly outsell the Ps2 due to several factors: cheaper, more than one per family, easier to have one stolen or lost. Not so sure about the wii, as it has more competition than the ps2 had.

 

[DJ12]

The Wii has no competition.

Would anyone really not buy a Wii because they wanted a 360 or PS3, I don't think they would to be honest.

I don't think the Wii will sell more than the PS2 personally because I still believe it's just a fad, it's still only being supported by Nintendo, most (certainly all the ones I have played) the third party game have been rubbish.

As time goes on you realise there are few games that really work with Wii-mote and that's when the buzz will die down.

Hopefully the next Wii won't be such a rip off.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

The Wii has no competition.

Would anyone really not buy a Wii because they wanted a 360 or PS3, I don't think they would to be honest.

I don't think the Wii will sell more than the PS2 personally because I still believe it's just a fad, it's still only being supported by Nintendo, most (certainly all the ones I have played) the third party game have been rubbish.

As time goes on you realise there are few games that really work with Wii-mote and that's when the buzz will die down.

Hopefully the next Wii won't be such a rip off.

How can something that continues to sell way above what the competition does for 1.5 years already now be ''just a fad''? than what are the x360 and ps3? complete disasters?

Its true that 3rd party support still isnt what it should (and the wii deserves) it to be that you can hardly blame nintendo for that and more blame useless management of studios for that.

 

[Dominik D]

Its true that 3rd party support still isnt what it should (and the wii deserves) it to be that you can hardly blame nintendo for that and more blame useless management of studios for that.

I think it's Nintendo to blame, really. They didn't open their platform to the developers properly. Example? Where's Mii support for 3rd parties? Another? Where's some sort of promotion of 3rd party titles? They just don't help 3rd parties and that's why their platform is not the best target for developers. But I have to give them that: they do this because they can.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

How can something that continues to sell way above what the competition does for 1.5 years already now be ''just a fad''?

Not that I'm saying Wii is or is not a fad, but yes, a fad can last a couple of years, dominate the market, and then fade away. Underselling a fad also doesn't make you a disaster - if you have a long term strategy and can outlive the fad of the day, as all the long-term toys have managed, than you area huge success. Ignoring the choice of word to describe it, there is the issue of platform longevity, for all the platforms - will the buying public get tired of it?

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

I think it's Nintendo to blame, really. They didn't open their platform to the developers properly. Example? Where's Mii support for 3rd parties? Another? Where's some sort of promotion of 3rd party titles? They just don't help 3rd parties and that's why their platform is not the best target for developers. But I have to give them that: they do this because they can.

Oke so nintendo is giving bad support because they dont open up the mii system (thank god for that, otherwise every freaking 3rd party games would have mii's) and dont promote the crap games from devs with tons of money like EA? They should pay their own promotions, not nintendo.

Besides they are giving enough support in the era's where it matters and that is tech support.

 

[obonicus]

How can something that continues to sell way above what the competition does for 1.5 years already now be ''just a fad''? than what are the x360 and ps3? complete disasters?

Its true that 3rd party support still isnt what it should (and the wii deserves) it to be that you can hardly blame nintendo for that and more blame useless management of studios for that.

Are there any 3rd party, non-minigame games for the Wii that have sold well? Boomblox didn't do so well, but that may have been due to the price. No More Heroes got mixed reviews, and I don't know what happened to Zack and Wiki.

 

[patsu]

http://www.thatvideogameblog.com/2008/03/21/the-3rd-party-wii-games-that-sold-a-million/

The other side of this is how much does it cost to make a Wii game ?

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Are there any 3rd party, non-minigame games for the Wii that have sold well? Boomblox didn't do so well, but that may have been due to the price. No More Heroes got mixed reviews, and I don't know what happened to Zack and Wiki.

I believe zack and wiki actually did pretty decent. They got over 500k I read somewhere. NMH also did good. Maybe not in total numbers but it did far more than grasshopper expected it to do. RE4 sold well, RE:UC also did well too. Im not sure about other titels, I kinda stopped following things as im so busy at the moment. I havnt even touched my wii for over 2 months I think because of that.

http://www.thatvideogameblog.com/2008/03/21/the-3rd-party-wii-games-that-sold-a-million/

The other side of this is how much does it cost to make a Wii game ?

The average 3rd party wii game? 50 cents is my guess.

 

[Teasy]

Are there any 3rd party, non-minigame games for the Wii that have sold well?

What an odd question, of course there are. Million selling third party Wii titles so far:

Mario and Sonic: Olympics - Sega - 4.68 million
Guitar Hero III - RedOctane - 2.9 million
Carnival Games - Global Star - 1.7 million
Res Evil 4 - Capcom - 1.43 million
Sonic and the Secret Rings - Sega - 1.43 million
Rayman Raving Rabbids - UbiSoft - 1.37 million
Lego Star Wars: Complete Saga - LucasArts - 1.35 million
Rayman Raving Rabbids 2 - UbiSoft - 1.3 million
Res Evil: Umbrella Chronicles - Capcom - 1.23 million
MySims - EA - 1.13 million
Red Steel - UbiSoft - 1.05 million

Boomblox didn't do so well, but that may have been due to the price. No More Heroes got mixed reviews, and I don't know what happened to Zack and Wiki.

Zack & Wiki sold around 400,000, No More Heroes around 300,000 and Boom Blox 250,000 (not that good but not terrible either).

 

[assen]

What an odd question, of course there are. Million selling third party Wii titles so far:

Now please remove the minigame collection type of games, as in the initial question. And put up the million-seller list for the 360, for comparison. Do you still claim it's a no-brainer for third parties to put games on the Wii?

In the last generation, it was unthinkable to pitch a Xbox-only game to a publisher, you'd better have a good answer to the question about when the PS2 version is going to be ready. The Wii has a long, long way to go before taking the place of the PS2 in that scenario.

 

[obonicus]

What an odd question, of course there are. Million selling third party Wii titles so far:

Not million-selling titles, they also have to be non minigame-based. Some on your list fit, some don't. So your list would look more like:


Guitar Hero III - RedOctane - 2.9 million
Res Evil 4 - Capcom - 1.43 million
Sonic and the Secret Rings - Sega - 1.43 million
Lego Star Wars: Complete Saga - LucasArts - 1.35 million
Res Evil: Umbrella Chronicles - Capcom - 1.23 million
MySims - EA - 1.13 million
Red Steel - UbiSoft - 1.05 million

Which is still a fair enough list, though not great. The list of course is further hindered by the fact that the Wii is underserved in AAA or even just quality games from third parties.

Zack & Wiki sold around 400,000, No More Heroes around 300,000 and Boom Blox 250,000 (not that good but not terrible either).[/QUOTE]

It's not great if you consider that there's so many Wii out there. None of those titles are AAA and I'm willing to assume that they're all flawed in some critical way, sales-wise.

I think things will get interesting when big ultra-popular multi-platform releases hit this year, like GH4, Madden 2009 and maybe CoD5. The first two franchises, at least, did very well on the PS2 last year, and according to popular internet knowledge PS2 owners are migrating to the Wii (or at least that's the justification given as to why GTA4 failed to move hardware).

 

[ninzel]

I'm curious,why do you guy's remove minigames from the Wii selling list,what is that supposed to determine in terms of sales?

 

[Sonic]

I doubt the Wii will surpass PS2 sales in 7 years, let alone 10 or even 20. I can imagine Nintendo using the Wii as its device to become a household name again. I'd really like to think that Nintendo is going to capitalize on its new found marketshare and push the Wii concept further. However, with the little rumor gong around about a cheap, cost effective, successor coming in by 2010/11 timeframe with actual graphics capabilities would lead me to believe this might be the machine would be the one Nintendo loves.

It's far too early to tell if the PS3 or 360 are complete disasters. They have yet to move to a price structure that the mainstream finds acceptable. When that happens I'd imagine both f those consoles pick up steam, especially the PS3.

Nintendo's error in not promoting 3rd party games is that it helps to alienate them from the other guys that would love to jump in on it. Honestly, Nintendo doesn't need 3rd parties to survive or thrive from what we've all seen in the past.

 

[Readykilowatt]

Do you think within 5-7 years the wii will outsell the PS2?

The architect of the Wii's success thinks so.

Not that I'm saying Wii is or is not a fad, but yes, a fad can last a couple of years, dominate the market, and then fade away. Underselling a fad also doesn't make you a disaster - if you have a long term strategy and can outlive the fad of the day, as all the long-term toys have managed, than you area huge success. Ignoring the choice of word to describe it, there is the issue of platform longevity, for all the platforms - will the buying public get tired of it?

Like Pokemon? There are tiny minority of people to this day who believe that Pokemon is a fad.

 

[eastmen]

some of those also released at $30 bucks didn't they.

I believe resident evil 4 was $30 when released and so was lego star wars.

 

[eastmen]

The architect of the Wii's success thinks so.



Like Pokemon? There are tiny minority of people to this day who believe that Pokemon is a fad.

how about those furbys , tickle me elmo , cabage patch kids . Every holiday sees a new fad that normaly only lasts a few months from october through around feb / march . There are some toys like barbies that continue to sell well for decades .

I don't know if the wii is a fad or not. Thats for time to decide

 

[Sonic]

If one considers how most platforms (closed consoles here) tend to basically die when a new generation of machines comes out then wouldn't just about all consoles be a fad?